This SpaceX Stock Has 5X Potential

Folks, I believe that the SpaceX IPO is opening up a window of opportunity for one specific company they work with to 5X. I think it's important that I make this video because there's a strong case that can be made that you're going to wish that you had bought the stock by the time the SpaceX IPO actually launches. And we're going to get to work. But first, as always, if you're the one taking the ultimate risk, you've got to be the one doing the ultimate frisk. Always do your own due diligence on all ideas presented. Also, before we get started, happy Memorial Day and an honor to our fallen troops who gave the ultimate sacrifice. Today, we do have a 50% off Memorial Day sale on one year membership. And as a member, you're going to get new ideas hit in your inbox first. You'll get 100 plus research reports and price forecasts a year. You'll get updates on every conviction idea. You'll get daily briefings on setups we see, and you'll get our video and strategy lesson library. And all of this will be delivered to your inbox and available in our portal link down below. We'd love to see you in there. 50% off. Take advantage of that while you can. Okay. Now it's time to get to work. So very, very few people are grasping the huge opportunity that is the SpaceX IPO. And while we've been making more and more videos about this, I think that you really need to understand the real window of opportunity we have here. Here's an analogy. So imagine you live on a quiet block. The houses are all roughly comparable, three bedroom, two bath, decent yard, similar lot size. And they've been trading hands at around say 800K for years. Everyone knows that's the price. Appraisers know it. Brokers know it. Buyers know it. Then all of a sudden a new house gets built on the corner. Same block, same school district, same general neighborhood. But this one, this one's a mansion and it sells for $12 million. Now what happens to all of the other houses on the block? Did they suddenly get bigger? No. Did they get renovated? No. They are the exact same house as they were yesterday. But the comps just completely changed. Every owner on the block is now going to be looking at that $12 million sale and they're going to be asking, look, if that's what that space in this zip code sold for, well, what's my house worth then? And appraisals are going to start going like this. And all of a sudden those 800K homes start trading at 1.2 million, 1.4 million, 1.6 million. Not because they got any better, but because the reference price for the neighborhood got completely reset. And this is exactly what SpaceX is doing to the entire space basket right now. Stock after stock in the space sector is getting completely repriced. When SpaceX goes public at a $2 trillion valuation, what does that really mean? Well, it means that every analyst, every ETF, every algo, every fund manager has to automatically recalibrate what a publicly traded space company is worth. Now, yesterday we spoke about how all of our SpaceX IPO stock picks have performed like crazy since May 5th with our top pick, Redwire, going up a whopping, whooping 101.27% in the span of a few weeks and others ranging from 10 to 72%. But why did this happen? Well, the same reason that we've been warning about, because the SpaceX IPO is repricing the entire basket. Now, many folks on social media and other channels are very, very upset about the success of space stock performance and even SpaceX's valuation itself, because they say, you know what? This is just unfair. How can unprofitable money losing space companies be going up so much when companies like Heinz aren't going up so much? I mean, ketchup sales are a much safer investment, yet buying stocks that sell ketchup haven't really performed much. I mean, hell, if you look at the S1 filing, SpaceX itself has some of the most insane Now you can complain about this. You could say it's unfair, but anytime you complain that the stock market is an unfair place, well, not only are you stating the obvious, but you're also missing the forest for the trees. Remember, there's always two aspects to any stock. There is the actual fundamental value of the business, and then there's the story value. People are willing to pay a much higher multiple on the fundamentals of a business if you're in a cycle for it. And because of the mechanics of how big the SpaceX IPO is going to be, well, the amount that people are looking to pay for everything related to space has gone up dramatically and continues to go up dramatically. Now in a future cycle, that's going to reverse and it's going to flip somewhere else. However, right now we're in the middle of a very nice window of opportunity. And I think for those who have risk management, this is actually something to exploit, not something to be fear mongering about. Now again, most of our ideas have already run up a lot. And I think a lot of them actually have more upside potential, but they're getting higher and higher in terms of risk, the more they climb. But the best deal I see right now is this one specific stock that we presented on yesterday that's trading at about $7. In today's video, I'm going to be breaking down why I believe it has 5X potential. And I'm going to give you an overall deep dive into the setup alongside the risks. Now a quick overview. This is a close partner and customer to SpaceX that has flown on multiple SpaceX missions. It looks mechanically set to benefit from the space economy valuation reset. It holds a seat in the Pentagon's Golden Dome Missile Defense Contract Vehicle. Very, very important. It trades at a $75 million market cap. I think it's actually $73 million. But as far as I can see, this makes it the cheapest publicly traded company that has flown to space while also working with SpaceX and getting government money. And it has a near-term mission catalyst on the calendar for September. Now what does Momentus actually do? Well, Momentus is in the in-orbit infrastructure business. That's the cleanest way to describe it. They're not a rocket company. They don't launch anything from the ground. They actually ride on SpaceX rockets. Their core product is something called the Vigoride Orbital Service Vehicle. Now if you watched yesterday's video, maybe you could skip ahead a little bit, but this is a small maneuverable spacecraft that hitches a ride on a rocket as part of a rideshare mission. Once it gets dropped off in space, it acts like a tug. It carries multiple customer satellites on board, then uses its own propulsion to move them to their own precise final orbits. It can also host payloads directly on the vehicle itself, meaning, in other words, a customer doesn't even need their own satellite. They can just bolt their instrument onto Vigoride and let Momentus fly it for them. Now the most recent Vigoride 7 mission flew in March with 10 different payloads on board, including demonstrations of autonomous rendezvous, in-space assembly technology, and satellite servicing capabilities. They explicitly use SpaceX's Falcon 9 as their ride to orbit. Momentus also signed a separate contract to fly an upcoming transporter mission as well. So every time Momentus flies, SpaceX gets paid for the launch, and then Momentus does its servicing work in orbit afterward. SpaceX likes them because SpaceX wants customers for their rideshare program, and Momentus needs reliable launch access to get their vehicles to orbit, so that way they have a nice symbiotic relationship. Now who are Momentus's customers? Well their customers are mostly the US government, and that's pretty much the most important thing you can understand about this business. Momentus holds active contracts with NASA, DARPA, the US Air Force Research Laboratory, and the Missile Defense Agency. They're also a participant in the Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD contract vehicle, which is the procurement structure tied to the Golden Dome Missile Defense Initiative. Now a space-based SHIELD isn't something that's like one and done. It's a ton of money flowing in a specific direction for many, many years to come. It needs to be maintained, repositioned, serviced, and replaced over decades, and that's the maintenance layer that Momentus is building towards. Now the broader strategic positioning here is that Momentus is actually possible because of SpaceX. SpaceX has dropped the cost of getting to orbit so dramatically that the bottleneck has moved upstream. The question used to be how can we actually get to space affordably, and now it's what do we do once we get there? And that's where Momentus's in-orbit servicing comes in. Their whole value add has been made possible by SpaceX. They opened up this whole new total addressable market, refueling satellites instead of replacing them, repositioning constellations as needs change, removing debris before it creates collisions, assembling larger structures in orbit piece by piece. So the bottom line here is that Momentus's success is downstream of SpaceX's success. And I think that the capitalization story, it's going to be the same exact thing. Now when SpaceX goes public and the market reprices what a space business is worth, I think that Momentus is going to be one of those names that gets pulled along, not because they're the same kind of company, but because they're a customer and partner in the same ecosystem building the layer that becomes more valuable as launch costs continue to fall and the volume of stuff in orbit keeps multiplying. So just to be specific here, why do I think that 5X is a achievable level for Momentus to hit? Well, a lot of it has to do with where it's coming from. So it's coming from a tiny base point with a massive ceiling. At a $75 million market cap, a 5X gets Momentus to $375 million, still way smaller than every other publicly traded space pure play. This isn't asking for the stock to become a giant. It's just asking for the stock to recognize reasonably how big the addressable market has just been blown open. The comp gap is enormous. Rocket Lab trades at $78 billion, which if you do the math, that's a 1000X plus size. AST Space Mobile trades at $41 billion, Intuitive Machines $8.3 billion, Firefly $7.93 billion, Black Sky $1.78 billion. Charlie, the comp gap doesn't matter. These aren't the same companies. Well, it does because when the basket resets, well, smaller names need way less capital to flow into it in order for it to have crazy percentage moves. But if you do want to look at price to sales, there's also an argument to be made there. Not that people are even paying attention to price to sales much with this space theme. Momentus' price to sales ratio is about 3. Rocket Lab's price to sales ratio is 111. ASTS' price to sales ratio is 339. And Lunar's price to sales ratio, which is the lowest really that I could find of the main ones, is about 14. Now, the massive revenue inflection they just had supports a way, way bigger multiple. Q1 revenue went from basically nothing, $320,000 to $3.22 million. Now, it's still not much in absolute terms, but that percentage change is ginormous, ginormous. If they hit a $20 million revenue run rate by the end of the year, well, even a modest 18 to 20X multiple would get you to $360 to $400 million in market cap, which hits your 5X target. Now, let's talk about the narrative drivers that I believe are going to be enough to pull the capital in. So, of course, the SpaceX IPO repricing event, when the basket reprices, the smallest, most overlooked names get the biggest percentage moves. Look at any massive IPO throughout history, this is what happens. Momentus is the smallest publicly traded space pure play that actually flies missions. Golden Dome shield positioning, Momentus is a participant in the Missile Defense Agency's shield contract vehicle tied to the Golden Dome initiative. Any major Golden Dome headline between now and the IPO pulls this name into the conversation by default. And then $71 billion Space Force budget tailwind. Oof, is this a doozy. 2027 Space Force budget request has more than doubled to $71 billion. Every space stock benefits from this, but the ones with active government contracts benefit the most. This is one that has an active government contract. Now, in-orbit servicing is a very, very undervalued space. No other publicly traded company offers clean exposure to last mile satellite transportation, hosted payloads, and in-orbit servicing. When ETFs and thematic baskets need to fill that slot, while the candidates they could choose are very, very few, arguably this is the only one that's anywhere near a good value right now. Now, if you want to get a little bit more technical and look at the flows and capital flows here, short squeeze fuel is very much loaded here. 15.6% short interest up some 400% from the prior reporting periods. The days to cover dynamic make this stock vulnerable to a rapid unwind, aka shorts having Citadel followed a 13G, which showed about 9.99% ownership, even if this is something that their algos just randomly picked up because of the structure of their funds, which I don't believe it is. So that kind of name backing means a lot for the space. Thirdly, the momentum is already established while the stock is still very much down from all time highs and much, much cheaper than its competitors. It's still up about 55% year to date, and it's climbed about 34% in the last month. So the stock is in a nice momentum trajectory heading into the opportunity window with the SpaceX IPO. Now, if you want to go into the fundamentals, I want to go through a few different things. So they had a going concern doubt that has now been removed. Management concluded in the most recent 10Q that prior substantial doubt about going concern no longer exists. A lot of the reason that people decided not to buy Momentus versus buying the more capitalized players is because they were worried about the balance sheet and how much they were spending and how much money they had left to continue to build this business. But management just said they have enough money. They got rid of the going concern clause. Their cash position has been rebuilt. They have real customers and real contracts, NASA, DARPA, US Air Force Research Lab, Missile Defense Agency. So this is not a pre-revenue concept stock anymore. They also have a near-term mission catalyst. Next Vigoride mission launch is scheduled for September 1st, 2026. If the SpaceX IPO prices in June and the mission flies in September, that's a one-two punch of narrative events, even if there is a big drop right after the SpaceX IPO. So what is the asymmetric path I see to 5X? Well, phase one, SpaceX IPO filing and roadshow headlines. The roadshow actually starts on the 4th. I think in the lead up to these events, you're going to see every space basket name continue to overall rip. Momentus, I think is still one of the ones that actually has a lot more upside to price in. Momentus is the highest beta name in the basket. I think it's going to lead in terms of percentage runs. Phase two, sector ETF rebalance and retail discovery. The smallest names absorb the biggest percentage of incremental flow relative to market cap. Again, say $100 billion is going into a space basket of stocks. Well, a lot of that money is going to flow into say, Rocket Lab, ASTS, so on and so forth. But if just a little bit of that money flows into something that's only at $75 million in market cap, well, that has a much bigger impact on the percentage run, right? And then phase three, short covering accelerates the move. With 15% short interest, every dollar higher forces some shorts to cover, which mechanically drives the next dollar higher. This is how micro caps can oftentimes go vertical. And then phase four, you have narrative compounding. As the stock runs, you'll see financial media cover the story. They'll say tiny SpaceX partner up 200%, blah, blah, blah. And by the time the IPO actually prices, Momentus is going to be a name that's already going to be very well known and in many space baskets that haven't even considered it up until this point. Now, what can prove me wrong? What could kill this? Well, there's a few very clear things. Firstly, the SpaceX IPO could get delayed past the summer. We don't see any indication that this would happen. I think that would be very costly to delay it. However, the whole catalyst window would close and the basket would lose its narrative driver. So Momentus would give back a lot of its recent run. It could go even below where it was before the run. One that I'm actually realistically concerned about is a large dilutive raise hitting before the IPO. Who knows if the company is going to do this? The company has a history like most small cap stocks. If the company decides to really be greedy with dilution, obviously that would be a very big headwind. A Vigoride mission fails publicly. I don't think this one is as worrisome to me because again, this has happened in September and I think the window of opportunity is between now and the SpaceX IPO. But if a Vigoride mission failed publicly, obviously that would cause a massive re-rating downward and then basket sentiment rolling over post IPO. If SpaceX prices opens green and then bleeds, whether that's the day of or a week after or two weeks after, well, the whole sector is going to follow and then proxy names are going to get sold first. And so then you have the other edge of the sword. Obviously this one's going to hold up very poorly in that kind of situation. And so that's why I have to say this is a high risk, high potential stock. And it's one that you have to go in with all eyes open if it's something that you're interested in. Now, step back from the numbers for a second and just look at this overall story. So six months ago, this was a dying company, a going concern warning was attached to it. There was reverse split scares. No one cared about it. It was considered a scam stock. Today, if you're looking at the revenue, you see revenue 9x'ing. The going concern has removed. They have $23 million plus in the bank. They are a SpaceX rideshare partner, NASA and DARPA customers locked in, Golden Dome contract vehicle participant, Citadel filed a 13G, short interest is squeezing the stocks up beautifully, year to date. The next mission is in September. Overall, I would say this is a textbook turnaround story and a beautiful turnaround arc. Anyways, again, high risk, high volatility story, but one that I think you're going to regret not knowing about come the SpaceX IPO. So anyways, let us know your thoughts down below. Is it too high risk? Is it too speculative? Are the losses in the space sector going to eat it alive? You can let us know your thoughts down below. Full respect for any opinions, whether for or against us. Happy Memorial Day. Make sure to take advantage of our 50% off memorial sale down below. We'd love to have you on the team. Have a great one. We'll see you next time.