Historian Dismantle the “Trump 4D Chess” Theory on Iran

Tarek, what do you think about the theory? There is a different theory. I have discussed it last week on Syrian analysis on my, let's say, stream. I was myself, I have read some theories that in fact the United States, we're not talking about Trump, Trump is not the real planner, but the real planners of this war, they know what they're doing in West Asia, the Middle East. They are doing basically a controlled demolition of the old petrodollar system and replacing it with a new system, basically also centered around the UAE. And now the UAE withdrew from OPEC, which was a blow for Saudi Arabia. And the UAE has built a new pipeline basically, which is circumventing the Strait of Hormuz. And they can now export to the outside world without needing to go to the quotas of the OPEC. And plus we have the corridors that they're building between India, the Gulf countries to Europe. So what they're trying to do is basically to build alternative routes for the flow of the energy, basically. And one of the players which will export the energy is the United States. So if the Asian countries are deprived of Iranian and Gulf oil nowadays because of the blockade and the blockade under blockade, then they have to aspire and seek for alternative markets to buy. And this is where the Americans can fill the vacuum, just like they did in Europe. They have demolished basically European dependency on Russian gas. And what they're trying to do in the Middle East is to destroy the Asian dependency on the Persian Gulf monarchy oil. Do you see this theory could be, let's say, a thing that we have to consider? I wouldn't call it a plausible theory. I'll be honest with you. I don't think it's plausible, but it's a theory as theories go. So of course one can consider it and maybe one should consider it. But I really wonder how these people explain that in the process of this extremely sophisticated strategy that they're assuming exists, the United States is also accepting major setbacks and defeats. Why are they doing that? Why does the controlled demolition of the petrodollar, which I also don't believe in actually, but if it were that, why does that come together with what doesn't look like a very controlled demolition of their own reputation? Very much. I mean, I really don't think this makes much sense. I have a feeling that these theories reflect something very normal, actually. I don't think they're stupid or anything. They reflect a very normal attempt to suppose, to assume that behind American policy as we see it unfold and behind American actions is ultimately is rational strategy. And I really think that's wrong now. It's wrong. And I can explain why. One reason is that American policy is influenced by Donald Trump. So I don't believe in the overdrawn argument that some people make that the institutions of the deep state, wherever they are, I believe there is a deep state, but it's very hard to actually define it, that they are so strong and so continuous and so perfectly organized that Trump doesn't influence anything. I think it's completely wrong. I think history will show us that in his own terrible way, Trump was what I would call a strong president in the sense he actually has agency. He actually has influence. But Trump is irrational, deeply irrational. So how do you have such a brilliant strategy executed flawlessly? It would have to be flawless. It's so complex. It has to be flawless while all the same time, your commander in chief is a madman. I'm sorry. It's really very hard to square that. The other thing is in that theory, where's Israel? I understand that there's a theory that Israel wants to capture part of these alternative pipeline routes. I get it. I get it. But what I mean here is something else. Where is Israel's unusual influence and sway over the United States? Because the theory still assumes that the American establishment somewhere still makes policy only for the United States in which Israel is a factor and nothing else. And I totally don't believe this is true. I think the empirical reality speaks against that. Israel is not just a factor in American policy. Actually, America is a factor in Israeli policy at least as much. So the sophistication, it's like a crystalline theory. It assumes a very complex structure that at the same time is actually kept very secret. We never get a glimpse of it. But at the same time, we can still also sort of guess at it perfectly. And we are supposed to overlook all the ways in which it just doesn't rhyme with reality. Why does a strategy like this come together with... Indeed, he has a point on the German Chancellor. Massive international humiliation of the United States. Now, if somebody wants to tell me, well, that's part of the cover-up. That's part of the maskirovka, right? That's how they deceive us. That's the point where they lose me. I really don't think that's how it works. You don't burn down your own house just to deceive the others. To me, that's a little bit like the people who were explaining to me why the Russians would have detonated Nord Stream. There was no conceivable reason in the world, rational reasons, why Russia would attack Nord Stream. And of course they didn't. And yet we got really smart experts. No, no, Russia did it. Because, you know, you have to think around three different corners and play 4D chess, and then you understand. No, there was nothing to understand. They didn't do it. That simple.