The 2026 Real Estate Crash Is HERE, These Are the Biggest Winners & Losers

Um, where do you think we're at in the cycle right now? Do you think I'm looking for a headliner right here? Do you think that we're in, you know, uh, a trillion with a trillions of dollars can coming due and you've been through all the cycles. You went through the nineties, you saw 600 bank failures in the nineties. You went through 2000, 2008 COVID and then COVID. Okay. I want to talk about all that today, but right now here we set in 2026, we got trillions of dollars, maybe $2 trillion in debt expiring this year. Do you think there's going to be a bloodbath and multifamily? Well, I guess we've got to define what that means, but I will tell you, I think to answer your question, we're in the first couple innings, so that's where I believe we are. And now the bloodbath, however, that's LPs, right? That's, that's some bank write downs and stuff like that. That's something that I don't think main street is really going to feel too much, you know, cause I've seen this before, what happens is private equity loses the family office loses the institutional loses, you know, and certainly the syndicator loses in a lot of cases. Um, but those are typically, uh, you know, that's typically not the main street. It does show up obviously. And, um, you know, explain that to me, explain that to the viewer. Like w why, why does that. The LP just explain the LP let's assume, let's assume I know nothing. I don't even know what LB, by the way, I don't, I don't always really know what any of these terms mean. So I get it. So, so here's the thing I can, I'll give you a great example. I bought a 680 unit building in the last cycle in San Antonio, Texas, that was 50% vacant. I bought it directly from the bank. So, so, so in another way, there were over 300 vacancies, right? Okay. So it's not cash flowing at all. So I buy it because it's a mess and it's sitting on the bank's books. Um, the tenants that are living there grant, they don't know any better. They don't care who the name of the management company is. They don't care who the ownership is. They just, they want their maintenance done. They, you know, they, they want a really, really sound place to live. That's safe and all that kind of stuff. So, so the tenants could be, you could, you could buy anything you want. The tenants aren't going to know, and they're not going to care. And I, I consider them main street. Those are the, those are our customers that are paying our bills. Um, and, and so you could bring in a new company that could be institutional, it could be local, it could be a person. It doesn't really matter. But, but the tenant doesn't even care or know same thing really in office buildings. Now it does show up of course, in deferred maintenance and all that kind of stuff. So there are other, there are other issues of course. But at the end of the day, uh, I, you know, who gets hurt when, when, um, you know, when something gets re valued, you know, which is what we are going through right now, who gets hurt? Well, the, the bank gets hurt. The shareholders get hurt. The syndicator gets hurt. The family office gets hurt. But if they're in a big fund, as you know, a hundred million, 200 million, 500 million, whatever. And there's a $5 million write down or $10 million, right? Yeah. On one deal. You're saying, you're saying Ken, and I'm just going to, I'm trying to help for the audience, right? Sure. Of course. There, there's a big, massive fund of 600 or 800 or a billion dollars. Yep. One deal fails in there. You're, you're talking about how this one deal gets cleaned up. Yeah. It, yeah. It gets absorbed. Of course. It's a loss. It's a real loss inside. To, to, to, to, to the fund. Yep. Then maybe to the lender, but always the people that put the equity in, which could be grant. I could have put money in somebody's deal, right. Or it could have been CalPERS or, or teacher's credit union or a fireman or pension funds, et cetera. You got it. Yeah. So, so that's why I, you know, who loses first Ken. So the, the, whoever invested in those funds, right. So you just saw, um, I think BlackRock just did a big write down on their credit. Right. Last week. So, okay. So whoever invested in that fund, um, you know, so you start to see, so what you're going to start to see is, uh, and right now, Grant, I think the big, you know, the big elephant in the room are these debt funds, you know, like people, what they do is they raise a bunch of money, but yeah, you know, they kept raising when, when the, when the property values dropped. Right. And so what, what you have is you have. I would call it toxic real estate sitting in these debt funds with these debt lenders. And, and so who loses the people that invested in the debt funds? And the, you know, it depends on who they went to, right. They could have went to a pension company, a pension. They could have went to an insurance company. They could have gone to individuals. Uh, you know, so you, you always go, got to go back to, you know, who put the money in the, in the first place. Yeah. So the capital stack, which is, it's called the capital stack. Can you just explain that again? Like I, I know nothing. Okay. I found a piece of real estate. Like you did that San Antonio deal with 680 units. You bought it from the bank. This is what? Oh, eight. Yeah. Right in there. I bet it might've been nine, but yeah. How did you do on that deal by the way? Oh, we did great. So, um, so it was a bank of America. Okay. They, they had to take a haircut on the loan. So they had to write down the loan, which affects their shareholders. Okay. I, so, so, so, so, so the 680, all the equity got wiped out. Everybody that put money in the deal lost and then it hit to the bank loan. So I guess, I guess a third of it was probably equity, right? Yeah. So great question. So, so the 680 units is now sitting on bank of America's balance sheet. And of course, banks don't want to own real estate. So now the prior ownership lost everything. Whoever invested, uh, lost everything on the investors, the syndicators, everybody's basically gets nothing. Now it goes to the bank. Yeah. And so, so here's what happens. So the bank, uh, has a fiduciary. They have to go out and get brokers to give values. What do they think this is worth? Okay. So they go out and get the BOVs, the broker's opinion of values. And then, then they come back and they listed it with somebody. Okay. And I, off the top of my head, I can't remember which brokerage company, but then I approached the broker. Yeah, yeah, exactly. So it's like, okay, I'm going to, I want to buy this. And they're like, okay, it's a mess. Like there's 50% vacant, all this deferred maintenance and the loan on it. I I'm going off a memory here. I think the loan at the time was about 25 million bucks. Okay. So, so now I take a look at the loan plus the capital work. I think that it's going to take plus the negative, uh, interest carry, right? Cause it's negative, uh, out of the gate. And I put all that together and I think it was around seven or 8 million bucks more than I needed. So I said to the bank, I need you to resize the loan down because at a stabilized value, uh, I can't pay this much. And you need to take a write down on the loan, which they did. So, so I buy the building and then you remember what they wrote it down to? Yeah, it was around in the low twenties. I think it was like 21 million. So maybe they took like a $4 million haircut off for the original debt. So they, so they got hit, the equity was gone. Now I bought basically a 50% vacant asset for $21 million. It was 680 units, uh, 30, 30 grand a unit, right? Yeah. And what were the rents? What were the rents? Oh gosh. They were like, they were, yeah, they were, they're a little more than that, but you know, there are one twos and three bedrooms, but I want to say there were seven, eight, 900, somewhere in there at the gap. And by the way, it was right next to USAA insurance. So it was right by a big insurance company, which is a huge employer in San Antonio. So it was in a great neighborhood. And so the area around it grant was in the nineties. I was occupied in the nineties. It was, it was a bad asset in a good area. Right. So anyway, long story short, two years later, uh, we get the value up into the high thirties, uh, and we stabilize it. Right. And so a little over 24 months later, then I go to the bank again, now that it's stable and I go get a, uh, basically, uh, like a $30 million loan and, and I end up paying everyone back. So, uh, so, and I, I still, I still have that asset today. 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This is one strategy investors use to try to make deals work when traditional rentals don't pencil. If you want to see the numbers for yourself, go to PadSplit.com forward slash hosts. I'll have a link in the description. Just run the math on the property. Wow. You still own it. Yeah. I just pulled up the rents in San Antonio in 2008. Uh, one bedroom is $568. Yeah. So six, I would say six. What are they today? Um, I would go off a memory, but I would say they're probably in the eights for one bedroom. Uh, you know, eight, 9,000, 1,100, 1,200. It's workforce. What's that property worth today? You've been in that deal 17 years now. Yeah. We've, we've financed it a few times. Uh, you know, it's taken a hit obviously this year because of the value drop, but I would say it's probably worth, um, maybe 70, maybe 80. Oh yeah. Now, now, now you're marketing. Yeah. Well, I don't know. Cause you know, I like to hold. Yeah, but you, so, so you have all your money out of the deal. You have all your money out of the deal. It's cashflow probably every year since you've owned it. So you're in the deal 18 years. That's right. You paid all your investors back. You've been paid back. You got 680 units there that are still cashflow positive worth 80 million and you have no money in it. This is an infinite return. Yeah, you got it. That's exactly right. This is a better return than Google, Nvidia, Bitcoin, gold, silver. Right there. You can't even measure it on a calculator. Yeah. So that's my model. Grant. I have, I have a lot of these. I mean, I have story after story. If there's how many, how many units do you have? We have a right around just about 10,000, 10,000. Huh? Cause look, there's not a lot of guys in the space that are going to tell people how to buy multifamily. There's just not, I mean, do you know anybody with 10,000 units is going to come on and say, here's the mistakes you're going to make. Here's the, uh, you know, this is where to find the deals, buy the deals. Do you know anybody in the space doing it? Anybody in multifamily? No, no, I don't. I mean, most, most people are hustling and, and, and selling. Well, yeah, yeah, yeah. So, okay. So look, we, you're in a deal. It's cash flowed now for 17 years. Could you buy that deal from yourself today? Sure. And make money. Yeah. Oh, would you pay 80 million for your own deal? So I did. I already did this. We did five recaps last year. So you can believe that. So I took five projects that we owned for a long time that we're getting a little tired grant, right. And that needed CapEx. And we brought in an institutional partner and, um, and, and we raised our own capital too. I stayed in the deal, so I still own them. So I sold the deals. I got, we had to get approval from all our limited partners and everything. Um, and, and so we did, we did quite a few trends. We did like 14 different deals. You sold a deal you own to someone else, paid all your investors back, but stayed in the deal. Correct. Right. I rolled 10% back in. So you still own it. Yeah. You got all your investors out. You got a new investor in. Yeah. They put the money into, to recapitalize it. Yeah. Okay. I used, I used that money to, to 1031 into some new stuff this year. So we, we, 2025, so we had a real active year last year. We bought, uh, uh, like $528 million worth of transactions last year. So we had a lot going on with new development acquisitions. Uh, some were value adds. Some are class a, uh, we did all kinds of stuff last year. I've been doing this for over 30 years and I'm telling you right now, what's happening in the economy is something that most people are completely unprepared for. Interest trades, private credit, the banking system, energy, AI, wiping out jobs completely. It's all converging at the same time. That's exactly why I put together a free virtual event with some of the smartest people that I know. Robert Kiyosaki is going to be there. George Gammon, Jeff Snyder, Tom Wheelwright talking about tax. We've got experts on gold, oil, AI, and real estate, nine speakers, one day completely free. This is the playbook for what's going to be coming up for the next 12 months. And more importantly, how to position yourself. So this money, this money that now these are deals you've owned for, what, what, what do they, all those deals have in common? Are they old? Yeah, I would say they were back, you know, so there was a time when I started where I used to say class a value ad, you know, or class, class B, you know, there were 1980 value ads, right? Well, 1980 is gosh, what is it? Almost 50 years at 45 years. So, you know, when I first started, we were buying these eighties value ads. Well, they're, they get tired after a while. Plus there's so much new stuff with tack nine foot ceilings. You know, you know, when, when you, when you buy a mid eighties property, it's, you know, it's, it's an old property. I'm not saying you can't put lipstick on it, but it's still, it's still, it's still going to be eight foot ceilings. You got it. So, so we roll up corn off, but you got it, but we were, but we were, so we rolled the equity into brand new class a projects is that's what we did last year. So you went, you, you didn't sell your asset. Well, we sold it to ourselves. Uh, yeah, we, we kept it. Yep. So we, what we did was we pulled the capital out. It's just, uh, that's called a recap. Um, so we brought in another partner. They, um, they partner with us. Uh, we were able to pay out to the investors that were in there for a long time. Um, we got all their approvals before and after some of them wanted to move forward into a 10 31, which we did. Um, and then that, that, that brought us a lot of dry powder for 2025. So, you know, we had a lot of money, uh, almost a hundred million dollars come out of those projects that, that we re-employed, uh, last year. Okay. So you still own the assets and then you moved from this value add, uh, B minus property to, to, to, to newer class a. Why, why'd you move to class a or are you mimicking what I'm doing? Well, I tell you what. Like I was looking at the math grant, like you, you know, we were looking, we bought a class a building in, in Henderson, Nevada, right next to whole foods for, I want to say 260,000, a door brand new, you know, I'm talking about elevator, beautiful project. Uh, we bought another one in Scottsdale, uh, you know, right in there, the waste management open there. We just had, um, you know, right by Costco there at the promenade. Yeah. We're, we're in the low threes there for door, uh, you know, elevator, uh, you know, rooftop pool. So, so, so I, for sure I'm buying below replacement costs. Right. That's for sure. So that was one, one thought. The second thought is, is I wanted to make sure that they were stabilizing cash flowing. Um, and so check those boxes and, and then my CapEx, you know, my capital repair budget went way down because on the eighties properties, I was constantly, it's just, there are always things breaking and things going on and of course it attracts a different tenant, right? So, so we were taking, I guess the way to say it is we were taking, you know, call it the eighties limited partners, um, and putting them into 2020 product and, and, uh, you know, a lot of them came with us, some didn't, some, some cashed out and said, I've had a good run with you guys. You know, we're gonna, we're gonna, we're gonna pay tax and move on. But that's what, that's what cap, what cap rate did you pay for that Vegas, the Henderson deal? Um, off the top of my head, I want to say I was below five. And then what, what, what on the Scottsdale deal? Same, same. Yeah. It was, so, so did you ever imagine in your lifetime? Okay. Go back to 1980, 1990, 2005 that you would be paying a sub five. No, ever. No, no, not how are you making Ken? How, how do you make that decision? People ask me the same thing. They're like, dude, how did you buy a four cap? Like, how did you make sense of that? How do you make sense of a lower cap, better property, better location, less cashflow. So there's three things that I like. Uh, the first thing is obviously I like to buy or blow or replacement costs. And as you will know, that's well below replacement costs. That's the second thing is, um, I, I like to buy cashflow. So if I'm raising money from my investors, I want the, I want their investment covered. Okay. So the only way to get it, meaning your return, whatever you're going to pay them, I would, yeah, I want to cover them out of cashflow. I could care less if I make money at this point. I want my investors to get paid from my tenants. Got it. So, so the, so that's, that's the, that's the second thing. And then, as you know, the, the industry got severely repriced when interest rates went up. Um, so cap rates went up and everything, you know, and we're, you know, we're fighting like, like crazy to, to keep our expenses down and, and, and, you know, and there's a lot of new product that hit the market this year. So, so I look at 2025 and 26, to be frank, as a disruptive year for an apartment owner. Um, you know, values are at least 30, 40% off of what they were, uh, based on, you know, higher debt costs. So, so I looked at, this is a phenomenal time to, to be able to jump into the game and, uh, you know, and there had to be, there always had to be a little bit of a story. So for me, they're always the story on this particular case was that there were, there was room in the rent roll. Uh, there was room to, to bring the, the, the, the units to market, not, not beyond market, but to market. So, um, you know, sometimes there's, there's real gold sitting there right in the rent roll. So on those deals, you're, you're, what do you offer your partners on those deals? You're, you're finding the deal, buying the deal. You, I would assume you manage the deal. What do you offer the limited? Um, so, yeah, so we, we do a 70, 30 split. Uh, wow, dude, dude, that's dude, you get a bigger split than I get. Yeah, we've been doing this, you know, we, we've been doing it a while. Um, we used to do 67, 33, uh, way back when I started, uh, when I first started, I was doing 90 tens, but now we're doing 70, 30. Um, and, and then, um, you there, but, but as you know, grant, the way it works is 100% of the money, um, gets the cash, right? So I'm on the LP side, of course, and I'm on the GP side. So I'm a general partner, but I'm also the limited partner. And once the limited partners are trued up, then of course, um, you know, I can participate. So, so I'm always years away from problem payday, but I do have my money sitting on the LP side as well. Yeah. So you're, you're like the deal in Scottsdale. Okay. Well, how much money did you raise for that deal? Just, I want to hold you to it in the forties, mid forties. Uh, you raised 40 million, 45, I think it was it. And I Ross and my partner and I, I think we have seven or eight personally in it. Um, and then we also don't forget, I came out of that 10 31. So I can't, I don't know exactly how much that came over, but maybe another 20, 30. And then, so we had to raise, I think another 10, uh, to close it. Uh, so you had the deal was what? It bucked 120 million. It was, uh, it was at 97, 100, uh, 97 million. You rate, so you had debt for 57. Yeah. That's about right. Or there about, and then who would you borrow that money from? So we got the deal from the CBRE and, and we ended up going Fannie and Freddie and they brokered that. Okay. So, so in about what 60% loan to value? Yeah. It was right around 60. It might've been just a touch below, but, and your cash flowing, your cash flowing at what four and a half or. Yeah. Right. Exactly. Yeah. Right out of the gate, it was like four to five and you're giving that to the limited partner. A hundred percent of it. So that's your money, your limited partner and the other money that you raised. So, so how did you, yeah. How do you make sense, Ken of a four and a half percent return and, and, and on your money and their money, not making any money on their money, how do you make sense of that when I could get a treasury for four and a half or five? Great question. So, so there's a few things. One is don't forget they're coming out of a 10 31. So, so they, they have a huge, huge tax reason, not got it. Got it. Uh, so that was part of the reason. The other thing is, is that's year one, a year two is closer to six. Year three is closer to seven. So I have a, you know, and, and, and, and honestly, you believe rents are going to go up over time? Well, well, there were, there's a few things that, that, that we're, we're going to do to get to that. And, and, but we're, we're well below Scottsdale rents. Right. So, so that was part of it. The one thing you can't, if you're buying something that's perfect, there's nowhere Um, so, so we're just trying to find stuff, you know, that has hair on it somehow, and this particular one did it. And then if we're lucky, if rates go down and cap rates go down, you know, we'll, we'll hit that target too, but we don't really buy for capital gain. So, so. Okay. I got a lot of things to break. We're going to be here at least 90 minutes doing this. Okay. So we got to break this down for, for my audience. So, um, dude, this is awesome by the way. Uh, I get excited listening to this because it validates the story I tell myself every day. Um, on that deal, your, your split's going to be your exit. Who, who do you exit that deal to? And how important is the exit knowing who you're going to sell to or refinance? You made a comment earlier about you're really a long-term holder. So what does that mean? And what does an exit look like? I I'm at this point. You probably are too, where there's, you'll find these deals there once a while that you, you just don't want to part with. So this Scottsdale deal is one of those things. So, so the real question for me internally is how do I keep that deal, get everyone's money back and, and, um, you know, and stick that in my trust or, you know, whatever I'm going to do with it and, and because it's a, you know, it has reoccurring long-term legacy, great location, irreplaceable. Um, and, um, so in, in, in a couple of the, in like in 08, when we started buying, uh, rates were higher and then they started to go down. And so every time the values would go up, we were just refinancing on the way down. So one of the strategies could be refinancing on the way down. If rates go down now, how long were you in for that loan? Ken, uh, it's 30 year loan. Uh, and you know, we're in for the mid fives, but, but, but what's the term on it? Yeah. Oh, you're at 10. Yeah. Interest only two, by the way. So you're not refinancing that you're not refinancing that for another seven or eight years. Well, I might, it just depends. And so one of the things that we look at, of course, is let's say rates go to four. It might be worth it, right? Cause you know, cause you can do your payoff, your payoff on that's going to be. Could be six or $7 million. It could be, but if, you know, if cap rates compressed the same time, you know, we could have 30, 40, $50 million of equity in it. Yeah. So, yeah. So, so I've been through this before where you're right. You got to take a look at the prepayment penalty, weigh it with the cost of capital, and then take a look at your payment. Uh, and so, you know, we, having gone through this once before, by the way, I don't know if that'll happen. Oh, clearly we don't know if rates are going to go down if they do. That's a great strategy. And, um, if, if they don't, um, then we're just fine where we are. Cause we're cashflow and she's going to kick the can down the road a little bit longer. Yeah. And you got a good asset and a good location. Great asset, great location. We're 96. I was just there last week, 96, 97% occupied. Well, dude, then you're the only, you're the only building in all of Arizona, this 96. Well, it's really true. Like we bought, it was 92. So it was pretty highly occupied. Um, and, um, it's right next to Costco there on Hayden. Yeah. What's the name of it? The core, the core. Yeah. You know where the gas station is on Costco there? It's right behind, I don't go to gas stations, man. The core, the core and in Scottsdale, the core, just look it up. It's beautiful. Yeah. Here, I'm gonna, I'm gonna show everybody what it looks like. Um, if I can do this. Oh yeah. Gorgeous dude. Dude. Do you, do you regret not buying this stuff the whole time? A little bit? Yeah, I gotta be honest. Like, you know, first of all, you brought up a really good point. They're tougher to cashflow, right? There's no real huge value ads. Like when you, when you buy something eighties or nineties, you can move the needle, a hundred, 150, 200 a unit. Um, you can't do that with this stuff. You know, this is like, this is like buying a, there you go. Yeah, there you are. Yeah. I mean, yeah, let me, I just want to see what the low, Oh, look at this. See, see to me, Ken. Okay. And I asked, I think everybody starts in the same place. You know, they start with the value add the smaller stuff, see locations. Yep. And then they're like, okay, well maybe I move up. I mean, we started moving up in 20. Well, during COVID I'm like, dude, I can buy, I can get the same cap rate on something brand new. Why not buy the brand new stuff? I mean, if I had one regret in my career, I would have never spent any time in the value ad space. Yeah. I learned a lot, but you're right. It's a grind. It's hard. Uh, it's a better story for honestly, for the, you know, call it the high net worth investor because they, they get, okay, the rents are a thousand. I can grow them to 1200 by doing this work. That's really an understandable story. Um, but you know, we, at one time grant, we had over $50 million in renovations. Yeah. You know, like, and it, you know, and this might've been why Kiyosaki said the management was the pain, the, the, the, the hardest part of the deal. What do you, what do you think is the hardest part of the deal? Managing a piece of real estate or finding a good piece of real estate? I actually do believe it's managing, you know, and, and, and there's a, there's a couple of reasons why I feel that way. I, I, I, I, the, when a broker hits a, it's a button, it goes out to five, six, 10,000 people at the same time. Uh, you know, it's highly competitive. Uh, it's very, very well bought up a bit up and, and, uh, and they're hard to find and of course, but the, the reality is, is when we're investing files, like you have been, uh, you know, there's six, maybe eight groups, uh, and all our NOIs are within a hundred grand. Like, we're all right there. I, so, so, so I, I feel like we're all using the same, all using the same math. So that part is a commodity. In my opinion, I feel like debt and equity is a commodity for the most part. Um, and so I really believe that the execution, um, you know, being able to buy correctly, um, and then, and then actually, you know, distributing the money to the investor is the hardest part. Yeah. But, but I haven't heard you talk about the management yet. Well, that's what I mean. Distribution of the investor comes from the management. So I think from, from my, our values are, uh, our residents are gold. They pay for us. They pay for everything I have. They, they pay for the corporate office. They pay for the people working there. They pay the investors, they pay the bank off. So the, my, my employees and my investors, um, are, uh, you know, and the only way to do that is to, is to really take care of your customer, your residents. Yeah. So you're saying, cause what I'm hearing you say, I think when most people hear management, they think about plumbing, they think about a roof, they think about the CapEx, you're saying, no, no, no, dude, the management is the managing of the LP, the tenant, so that you get the cashflow so that you can pay your, pay your, uh, limited partner. Yeah. And those things happen. Like all that stuff happens, but, but I will tell you, like, honestly, we have maybe 75 or a hundred maintenance guys, you know, there's a whole program to get them trained up on HVAC and electrical and plumbing. It's day to day. Like that's what they're, that's what they do. Why do you do the management, dude? Why don't you just third party it? I kind of like it. I know it's a, uh, trust me, I've been asked this a lot. You know, I walk onto a project and, and I, I, I, I like it. I can sit down with the manager. I can sit down with the maintenance guy. I know that if they're BS in me, I know what things cost. Uh, and, and I think the devil's in the details that, you know, on how it's running operationally. And, and, uh, and that's actually been kind of the kryptonite for me. I've been able to look at deals that come across my desk and, Oh, okay. They're really overspending in these areas just because, you know, it's, it's kind of what I do. Um, and I, I think a lot of it is because maybe that's the gift that was given to me when I was younger and in the property management space. But, um, I, I like it. I, I look at it, Brant as, as, as managing like a family office, honestly. Like, cause otherwise, like the, one of the, one of the things that drives me nuts is when people turn their money over to someone else and they don't know where it's being invested and all that stuff, and that's just me though. I like being close to the sun. I like, like I can walk down the hall and say, Hey, we're 88% occupancy. What do we have to do to get up to 92, 93, 94? Literally I can do that. Like right after this, I can walk down and sit down with my own property management's managing for me. That works for me. It wants to work for me and, and, and, and strategize with them and say, how do I get the occupancy up? How do I cut expenses? How do I do this? How do I do that? So I like having those levers here inside of our, in our company.