Why Gold Prices Are Crashing Act Now

Folks, gold is crashing. If you're an owner of gold, a gold ETF, a leveraged bet on gold, or you own any kind of precious metal at all, this video is for you. As you know, we are right in the middle of a massive US-Iran conflict, oil is surging, inflation is looking to skyrocket soon, but at the same time, the safe haven asset gold that's been around for thousands of years, tried and true, has been absolutely pummeled. And by the end of today's video, you're going to know exactly why, what's going on, who is actually behind the selling, why your gold playbook isn't working the way you thought it would, and I'm going to show you exactly what the strategy is to come out ahead and use this to your advantage instead of letting it take advantage of you. And then it's going to be time for our sponsored segment on Maya Biotechnology, ticker symbol MAIA on the NYC American. They're developing what they call a first-in-class cancer treatment that targets telomeres. The protective caps on chromosomes that cancer cells exploit to survive, I'll walk you through what the company's working on and why you may want to begin your research on it and put it on your radar. And as always, if you're the one taking the ultimate risk, you've got to be the one doing the ultimate frisk. Always do your own due diligence on all ideas presented. So gold is getting completely obliterated. The spider gold trust is down around 16% since the US launched the massive Iran strikes. And if you're a leveraged owner of gold, you might be down about 30 to 40%, maybe even 50% depending on the leverage. And this crash is confusing a lot of people because on paper, the case for gold has never been stronger. We have a full-blown military conflict in the Middle East disrupting some 20% of global oil supply. Central banks around the world bought over a thousand tons of gold last year, a generational level accumulation. The US national debt is at a number so large, it barely even registers emotionally anymore. Inflation is elevated and getting worse, not better. Gas prices are skyrocketing. The dollar has been in a long-term weakening trend for years. Global uncertainty is through the roof. Every single one of these factors points to what? Gold price is going up, right? And yet gold has been absolutely destroyed. Dumpy dumpy toe. So what the hell is going on here, Charlie Charlie toe? So the gold investment thesis is very simple. I wrote it here on the notepad for you. Gold is scarce. That means the total supply is limited, right? Very, very clear concept. USD is abundant. More is printed daily. And that means that over time, gold will be worth more and more USD. This sounds completely logical, right? And it is. Now, this gold investment thesis is very much true over a long-term time horizon. However, long-term and short-term are two different things. Fluctuations over the short term have a lot to do with the decisions at the Federal Reserve at the Holy Central Bank. And if you're wondering why gold is in such a downtrend right now, it all stems from what the Federal Reserve is expected to do as a result and to compensate for this massive Iranian conflict. You see, this war is causing oil and other key commodity prices to skyrocket, which is causing inflation expectations to surge. When inflation expectations surge, well, the Federal Reserve loses the ability to cut interest rates and then starts pondering raising rates. The rate cuts that markets had priced in just a couple of months ago are now completely off the table. The Federal Reserve is basically going from unleashing a tide of cheap money onto markets to now even potentially plotting to raise rates again. And that means that people rotate back into USD-denominated treasury assets and the dollar gets stronger. And so gold goes down. So now if you go back to our original equation, well, the part where the USD is more abundant is getting temporarily reversed to counteract the effects of this war effort. Now the Federal Reserve has for now only officially paused, but rate expectations are starting to price in more and more of the possibility of a hike. And when you start seeing the Fed raise rates, all of a sudden you see money get sucked out of everywhere. So if you want to understand very basically why gold is crashing, it's because of these three steps. Step one, government prints money for Iran conflict. Step two, printing and disruption cause price spiral. Step three, Federal Reserve raises yields to tighten money supply and drain money from the entire system to compensate and prevent price spiraling. And because markets try to predict and factor things in and advance, well, they are already attempting to price in. Step three. Now there's also a lot of other themes that are going on right now. You have manipulation in the paper markets where you have an infinite supply of paper contracts of gold, but a limited supply of actual gold. And so the pricing dislocation there is substantial. That's specifically very common in U.S. markets. There's also the dynamic where a lot of these OPEC partners are having to sell off their gold reserves in order to free up some liquidity to get through this crisis. And there's this dynamic where a lot of central banks around the world are also going to have to reverse their trade a bit because they need the liquidity to get through this crisis. And as you can see, central banks around the world are starting to tighten as well. However, the main dynamic that's going on is the fact that markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to start draining the money supply, which means that money is going to flow out of everything and back into treasury assets because they're going to be yielding a higher rate of return. Now let me be completely straightforward with you. I'm a big believer in gold long term. However, I'm also going to be honest and tell you that nobody could tell you how long this crisis is going to go on. And the longer it goes on, obviously, the more the situation is going to worsen. Now, on the flip side, if it ends this week or next week, well, the reversion could be much more substantial. And all of a sudden, this trade completely unwinds. And that's why you have to be very, very careful with how you handle short term movements because short term movements have nothing to do with long term trends. So I want to give you some universal truths to chew on here. So gold and all assets. You have to understand that for gold and all assets, the short term does not equal the long term. However, short term fear and euphoria cycles are opportunities for extra returns, either buying things at cheaper than they would have been or selling them at higher than they would have been and should have been. But the bigger picture and where the big money is made is over the long run. One of the biggest mistakes that folks make in any market condition is assuming that whatever is happening right now in the short term is what must continue to happen long term. That's true on the way up. That's true on the way down. The truth is that what's happening right now has almost nothing to do with what's going to happen in the long term. If you're somebody who owns gold, it is not fast money. It is not quick money. It is not a get rich quick scheme. It's something that you build over time. Even short term trades, if you think about it, are long term in nature because if you have bad habits and you do them on short term trade after short term trade, well, you might win big on one trade. But over the long term, you're going to blow up. So again, no matter what you're doing, you have to be building for the long term. So with that in mind, I want to talk about three mistakes that I see happening right now. Mistake number one, dumping physical gold or unleveraged ETF positions because the chart looks bad. If you own gold or actual physical metal and you're thinking about selling because, oh no, it's down, well, understand what you're doing. You are selling a hard asset with finite supply to an institutional buyer who is simply buying because they want to accumulate at a discount. Mistake number two, holding a leveraged ETF or using too much leverage. Spare markets and any kind of asset can completely destroy those who have leverage because what happens? Well, your timeline gets crunched significantly. You need to be able to withstand ups and downs, and when you use too much leverage, it makes it very difficult to do those things. Mistake number three, and this is probably the worst one, going entirely to cash with the intention of buying back at the perfect bottom. Nobody, and I mean nobody except for random users on Reddit, consistently catch exact bottoms. The research on these historical gold cycles is very, very clear. The move off the bottom is often fast and sharp, and it comes before most people are psychologically ready to get back in. Of course, having some cash on the sidelines for firepower is smart, but going all cash is crazy, especially considering that the long-term trend is down for cash. The truth is that the short-term trend and the long-term trend have nearly nothing to do with one another. Anybody that makes long-term decisions based on short-term fluctuations is making a massive mistake. If you're somebody that's in the game for the long-term, you're not looking at equities or gold or anything as a short-term way to get rich, well, then the short-term volatility is nothing to be afraid of. Okay, next, I want to go through some history here to show you that long-term, the picture for gold is very much intact. Throughout history, a lot of times what happens is gold sells off during the crisis, and then a lot of money gets printed, and long-term what happens, well, dollar goes down, gold goes up. So 1971 to 1980 was the dollar debasement era. President Nixon, tricky dick, ended gold convertibility, the gold standard in 1971, OPEC embargoes oil in 1973, the Iranian revolution happens in 1979, each shock stacked on the last, gold went from $35 an ounce to over $850, more than 2,300% returns in nominal terms. The CPI roughly doubled over the same period, gold didn't just keep up with inflation, it obliterated it. 1979 specifically is worth isolating, gold went from roughly $220 at the start of 79 to a peak near $850 by early 1980, roughly a 290% move in about 12 months. As the Iranian revolution collapsed, oil supply and the geopolitical situation absolutely spiraled. 2001 dot-com bust in 9-11, the tech bubble collapses, then 9-11 hits, the Fed slashes rates to 1%, the S&P drops roughly 49% peak to trough, and gold quietly begins one of the most sustained bull markets in modern history, from around $250 in 2001 to $1,921 in September 2011, a 660% move over a decade. If you look at the 2008 financial crisis, this is probably the most important case study for today. While gold broke $1,000 for the first time in early 2008, then Lehman collapses, credit markets freeze, and institutions need to raise dollars immediately. They sell their most liquid, most profitable positions, including gold, gold dropped from roughly $1,000 to around $700 by October, a 30% drawdown while the banking system was absolutely melting down. But once the acute panic subsided and the Fed launched their quantitative easing, while gold's underlying drivers completely reasserted themselves, and from the late 2008 area, gold ran more than 170% to its 2011 peak of above $1,900. 2020, same thing, COVID, the fastest economic contraction in US history, the Fed takes everything down to zero overnight and launches unlimited QE, gold climbs from around $1,520 in January to over $2,070 by August, more than 36% in eight months. This was an identical playbook to 2008, liquidity crisis first, then Fed response, then gold rips. 2022 to 2026, the post-Ukraine bull run, Russia invades Ukraine in early 2022, oil spikes to $130, gold briefly touches $2,070, then retreats as the Fed launches its most aggressive rate hiking cycle in decades. Gold pulls back to roughly $1,600 by late 2022, then once the rate narrative shifted and the dollar softened, gold launched into one of its strongest runs in history. From $1,600 in late 2022, gold crossed $3,000 in early 2025, surpassed $4,000 for the first time in October 2025, and hit an all-time high above $5,500 in January of 2026 before pulling back. So those are some of the examples, but let me just give you a recurring pattern set up here. Stage one, acute chaos, oil spikes, media panics, retail investors either panic sell at the bottom or chase the initial spike at the top, smart institutional money washes and waits. Stage two, the grind down, panic subsides slightly, gold continues bleeding, sometimes another 15 to 20% lower. This is when retail psychology breaks and people sell exactly when institutions and central banks are the most aggressive buyers. Stage three, recovery, structural bid reasserts, buying resumes, central bank buying shows up in the price. The debt dynamics that made gold attractive haven't disappeared. They've only gotten worse. So gold builds a floor and starts climbing. Mining stocks begin to leverage the move, often outrunning gold itself. And then stage four, new all-time high. These are the four stages that nearly every gold bull run has run through in the last hundred years. So anyways, bigger picture, let other people destroy themselves, but make sure that when you're making your own decisions, that you're thinking about the long-term, not just the short-term emotions. It's such a cliche that retail traders go and buy something because it's up. And then the minute it goes down, they start thinking, oh, I guess my thesis was wrong. The whole point of having a thesis is that you can hold something that you believe in long-term and come out on top and use the dip buying opportunities as what they are, dip buying opportunities. Anyways, that's my take. You can let us know your take down below. And now it's time for our sponsored segment. And today's sponsored segment is on Maya Biotechnology, ticker symbol MAIA on the NYSE American. They're developing what they call a first in class cancer treatment that targets something called telomeres. These are the protective caps on our chromosomes that cancer cells exploit to survive. Their lead drug candidate is being tested in patients with advanced lung cancer who have run out of standard treatment options. The early clinical data has been interesting. I'll walk you through what the company is working on and why you may want to consider putting it on your radar and beginning your own research on it. So let me give you some context on the market they're targeting. So non-small cell lung cancer or NSCLC accounts for about 80% of all lung cancers. It's a massive market. And analysts estimate that NSCLC therapeutics could reach 50 to $66 billion by the early 2030s. When you're talking about total market size, these are patients who have already failed both chemotherapy and checkpoint inhibitor immunotherapy. The options at that point are extremely limited and outcomes are generally poor. Standard of care progression. Free survival in third line is about 2.5 months and the company sites historical benchmarks suggesting overall survival in the setting is typically around six months. It's a difficult situation for patients with significant unmet medical need. So what exactly is Maya trying to do while their approach targets telomeres? Think of these as the protective end caps on your chromosomes, kind of like the plastic tips on shoelaces. Normal cells have limited telomere length, which is part of why they eventually stopped dividing. But cancer cells hijack an enzyme called telomerase to rebuild their telomeres, essentially making themselves immortal. About 85 to 90% of cancers are telomerase positive. Maya's drug candidate, Atagonazine, is designed to be incorporated into telomeres by telomerase, causing DNA damage and triggering cell death while also activating immune responses. That's the theory at least. Now, let me walk you through where they are in terms of clinical development. They're at phase two for their Theo 101 trial. This is their ongoing study testing their lead candidate. As of September 2025, they reported progression-free survival of 5.6 months in third line patients compared to that 2.5 month standard of care benchmark I mentioned. Estimated median overall survival was 17.8 months. And then you have the phase three Theo 104 trial. This is the big one. In December of 2025, they dosed their first patient in this pivotal phase three trial. This is a multicellular open label study comparing their lead candidate plus a checkpoint inhibitor versus investigators choice chemotherapy in up to 300 patients. It's designed to measure overall survival, which is the gold standard endpoint. And then you have fast track designation in 2025. The FDA granted fast track designation for their lead candidate in SLCLC. This is meaningful because it provides more frequent FDA meetings and potential rolling review. But of course, it doesn't guarantee approval. It just means you got that fast track designation. Also got an NIH grant. They received a $2.3 million grant from the National Institutes of Health in 2025, which provides some validation of the science from the federal research perspective. Strategic partnerships. They've announced combination agreements with Raj and B1 medicines for checkpoint inhibitor On the leadership and ownership side, the CEO is Dr. Vlad Vytautk, who founded the company. He has an MD and has been actively buying shares in the open market throughout 2025. In late November alone, he purchased over 80,000 shares across multiple transactions. As of year end 2025, directors and officers hold more than 5 million shares representing approximately 13% of the company. Now, that being said, let me be very direct about the risks. Drug development, of course, is extraordinarily risky and costly. So these are things to be aware of. This is a very risky, volatile stock. But in terms of the thesis for this stock, Maya is targeting a significant unmet medical need third line NSCLC patients who have failed standard therapies. Their telomere targeting mechanism is novel and differentiated from existing approaches. The early clinical data suggests potential efficacy above historical benchmark, though this needs validation in phase three trials. They also have FDA fast track designation, which could facilitate the regulatory process. And management has significant skin in the game. Anyways, if you want to learn more about the stock, I'll put the link to it down below. Do your own research and come to your own conclusion. Anyways, that caps off today's video. Have a great rest of your day. We'll see you next time.