Is Silver Going Back Below 50 Outlook To April 2026

Hello everyone, welcome to BaldGuyMoney, and we are in the midst of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, and without any big surprise, the prices of gold and silver slightly pulled back, getting as low as $4,842 per ounce for gold and $72.02 per ounce for silver this week. Now, I warned about this possibility in last week's Wednesday update, the reason being that positive price movement has mainly been coming during Asian trading hours, with the largest sell-offs happening during U.S. trading hours, including the huge January 30th smackdown that represented the largest single-day pullbacks for gold and silver ever. Now, despite these facts, it's important to keep in mind that last year between January 28th and February 4th, when the Chinese market was closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, gold and silver prices both actually moved up, with metals prices experiencing strong gains today. And with plenty of people picking up my warning about a possible Friday, February 20th pullback, coinciding with the end of options trading and spreading it around online, I'd like to address expectations for this coming Friday, starting with a little background on what's happening with gold and silver on the fundamental macro level. Once that's covered, I want to show you all where we should be prepared for metals prices to pull back to. And to finish, I want to update you all on the recovery timeline by breaking down in detail what I think comes next for gold and silver once the Lunar New Year holiday in China ends. Now, just before we dive in, I want you all to know that this midweek bonus video has been made possible by Investing.com and their powerful market analysis platform, Investing Pro, which I use to track my personal mining stock and energy stock portfolios, as well as support my technical analysis to help identify undervalued stocks and entry points for gold and silver when I'm looking to buy a dip, with top-line silver analysis shared right here for free on the screen right now. And we'll talk about this more in the video and what it means for you, but having access to Investing.com with a ProPlus membership gives you immediate access to the latest technical analysis numbers and figures without having to wait for YouTubers to release a video or cover the metal or stock you are interested in, and without you having to know how to do technical analysis yourself, as membership to the service gives you access to tools that do it for you. So if you want access to this and everything that comes along with it, please take advantage of this offer and use my link in the pinned comment and video description below as it gives you an extra 15% off on top of the 55% flash sale discount they have kindly made available once again this week, and I recommend it for anyone who owns or is planning to own mining or energy stocks, or even looking for great entry positions for gold and silver, but do it now to lock in the discount before the flash sale ends tomorrow. So jumping in, I have received multiple questions from viewers asking how to play the Chinese New Year, especially in light of my warning from a week ago that suggested a pullback would happen, and that we may see the most volatility around February 20th coinciding with options expiration. So if you're wondering why I'm covering this now, it is in anticipation of that February 20th date. Now as I present this, please keep in mind that I am not a short-term trader, I don't play with options, and I don't use leverage. I simply identify long-term trends and move along with them, and one of the key trends I am following that argues that gold and silver prices will go much higher than even where they were at the end of January, is the trend of currency debasement. And on that note, we got an update this week from the Congressional Budget Office, which is the government itself, the U.S. government, saying that U.S. national debt is expected to reach 64 trillion dollars by 2036, an increase of 1.4 trillion dollars versus their last estimates. And this brings their ever-rising projections closer to the ones I shared with you all in June of last year, where I flagged the fact that these numbers do not include a prolonged war with Iran, which may add a trillion dollars or even more to that debt, depending on how long such a war lasts. Which, as a bit of breaking news may be imminent, as some news outlets, including ones from Israel, are saying war between the United States and Israel against Iran may begin soon, so I want to flag that as well as we get into this, because this news sent metals and oil up today, and although it may be tempting to buy into this, expecting a major move up that never ends because of the war, just remember that from a long-term perspective, these events tend to have short-term impact on price and shouldn't be used as a reason to purchase metals by themselves. And ultimately, speaking one more time about the long term, I think we should focus on continued currency debasement along with falling real interest rates, which measure interest rates minus inflation, as they will be the main sources of upward pressure that will continue to push metals prices beyond the conservative price scenario that I shared back in September of last year, which has already been achieved despite silver falling slightly out of the price range, and it will propel us towards the aggressive price scenario, which at the time of presenting it back in September of last year, I said may take 24 months for us to achieve, meaning mid to late 2027, not as the moment it will happen guaranteed, but between now and then, of course, meaning it can happen sooner. So with it made perfectly clear why gold and silver remain extremely attractive over the long term, there are many people expecting to be able to buy silver still below $50 an ounce and to buy gold below $4,000 an ounce before they make their next big move up towards my aggressive targets. And although that would be great, I wouldn't shed a tear if they pulled back that far. I would use it as a buying opportunity. I think it's an unrealistic expectation, especially for the month of February. And the reason I say that is because of the concept of Max Payne. Now, for those of you who have never heard of Max Payne and you don't know what that is, Max Payne is the price level at which the largest number of options contracts expire worthless, causing the maximum amount of financial loss to the largest number of options holders for the benefit of large financial institutions. And what we usually see around that period of time when options expire, which is this Friday, is we usually see prices float back to around those Max Payne levels. Now, if we look at where the Max Payne prices are today for February options expiration in an overall bullish precious metals market, they are around $4,600 an ounce for gold and about $73 an ounce for silver. So if we see a scenario where institutions exert some pressure on the market to get prices in the area that benefit them the most, that's likely where they're going to be indicating a little downward pressure on silver and potentially more downward pressure on the price of gold before we truly start to recover, excluding, of course, any impact and escalation with Iran may have on prices that may happen between now and Friday, which may, of course, offset this as investors potentially hedge their positions with gold and silver heading into the weekend. So please just keep that in mind once again. Now, with the Max Payne prices out of the way, there could still be some more downward pressure on the prices of gold and silver after February 20th until about the end of April, even if we see an escalation with Iran, especially considering today's Federal Reserve meeting minutes notes that showed just how divided they are on having more interest rate cuts. Now for silver, that gives us three realistic pullback priced levels to look out for, and they are $71, which is the level I am on record saying that I think silver will hold in a worst case scenario going all the way back to just before the big January pullback. You also have $64 an ounce and $54.50 an ounce with my estimated probability of seeing these numbers added as a percentage next to each price level. Now, although I know most people want a guarantee of where the bottom is going to be so they can go all in at that bottom price, remember that a pullback below $70 may end up looking like the February 5th pullback to $64, which lasted only seconds. So for lack of a crystal ball, I think preparing a budget and using it according to the pullback probability levels shown here makes most sense as you continue your scheduled purchase and scale into precious metals, in this case silver, just so you don't walk into the next big move up for silver empty-handed because you got too greedy and you waited for a price that never came. And as always, I encourage you to buy your gold and silver at summitmetals.com to avoid fakes and scams because there are a lot of them out there these days and a lot of people waking up to the fact that they spent money buying gold and silver that just isn't real. Now, to keep myself honest, this is the technical analysis provided by investing.com's technical analysis tool where you just pull up a chart, you click analyze, and it does the rest of the work for you. And for silver, as you can see here, it favors the bearish scenario just as I do with a high degree of confidence and pullback levels at $71, $64, and $50, which are obviously extremely close to my levels, while indicating that silver needs to break above $87 an ounce to get back into bullish territory. And that's not far off my target of $92.20 per ounce to trigger that reversal. Now, what I find most interesting about this analysis and how it lines up to my own data is that it doesn't give any chance of silver going below $50 an ounce. And this is something I want to flag, especially for all of you who think you're going to be buying silver this year for below $50 an ounce. Because although I'd love to buy some silver for myself at that price, that price level is a hard floor for silver right now. In fact, I'd put the floor at $54.50 per ounce, and I'd bet my reputation on it that we will never make a weekly close below that level ever again, just like I did when I said the same thing last year for silver at $30 an ounce, which ended up being correct. Now, what I expect for silver as we come out of the Chinese Lunar New Year is a major stabilization in price, with the bearish phase for silver starting to reverse around April or May, with new all-time highs possibly coming around late summer, but more realistically in September or October. And the reason I'm so confident we'll see new highs in that time frame is because you never get a blow-off top high only three months after breaking long-term price resistance, let alone resistance at a price that was established 45 years ago, as is the case with $50 silver that was established back in 1980. It simply doesn't work that way. And if we use oil as a comparable example, where people used to say it would never go above $40 a barrel, much in the same way people said silver would never go above $50 an ounce, once it did in July 2004, it moved up quickly in the following three months, making a temporary high, pulling back for two months, and then holding the high that it had made eight months later, on its way to versus the $40 ceiling, which would bring silver, if it made the same type of price move that oil made over this period of time, to the $184 per ounce level, right within my aggressive price range for silver, but admittedly on a bit of a faster schedule than it did for oil, and much more on a similar schedule as to what we saw for copper between July and December of 2025. Now moving on to gold, the situation is much more neutral for gold than it is for silver, particularly because we see gold stabilizing within a range of $4,800 to $5,000 an ounce, with an arguably bullish reversal candle being put in on the monthly data points, should we be able to close the month around the price level we're at now, which is just below $5,000 an ounce, and this indicates that we may have already bottomed out for gold at $4,400 an ounce, which is a price that corresponds not only with the February low, as well as the October high that we saw back in October of last year, which if you remember resulted in its own large pullback once we hit it, to below $4,000 an ounce for a short period of time. Now although I think the bottom for gold has already been made and that's nothing new, people who watch me every week should probably have already heard me say that by now, if we end up breaking below the max pain level of about $4,600 per ounce that I mentioned near the beginning of the video, look for us to hold a price range between $4,250 and $4,400 an ounce for gold, which again is right around that February low. That said, don't put too much faith in us getting there and stay on a buying schedule, especially considering the current geopolitical situation we find ourselves in, with a potential war in Iran likely putting in a floor for gold between $4,600 and $4,800 an ounce, which is a range I would not hesitate to purchase at, because war paired with historic levels of demand that we saw on gold in 2025, and that's despite record prices, will give little fundamental room for a major technical pullback to happen in price, even if we see some choppiness in the stock market as people will move to gold as a safe haven alternative. And I give priority to those fundamental factors despite the consideration that I give to the technical price factors. And that's because despite gold's meteoric rise since the 2024 breakout, allocations to gold, as per data from Kalem Thomas, who by the way makes great charts and I highly recommend you follow him on X, his data here suggests that gold remains significantly underinvested when compared to the levels we saw between 2009 and 2011. And if a war, which we don't know that it's going to happen yet, but I'm saying if a war, currency debasement and real negative interest rates all collide in the same year, which may happen this year in 2026, this could drive gold to new highs really by April or May as investors still have a lot of room to move out of stocks and into precious metals, which is in line with a warning I issued in October of last year about May being a key for gold, despite the fact that we got an intermediate move up for metals in December and January. Now, just as we did for silver, I pulled the technical analysis for gold from investing pro using monthly data points as you can adjust them based on the type of data points you want to see, whether you want to look at short-term or long-term trends. And for the most part, the pullback range for gold remains similar to mine with the investing pro tool indicating a medium chance of seeing a pullback to between $4,187 per ounce and $4,422 per ounce, while indicating an equally medium chance of a move above the key resistance level, which is right now at $5,150 per ounce, triggering a retest of the highs that we saw back in January with no indication that we should expect a pullback below $4,000 an ounce, which wildly enough, I have heard some people claim that we will see a pullback to below $4,000 an ounce. And to be perfectly honest with you, I don't think it makes much sense on a technical level or on a fundamental level. So as we finish, I just want to thank investing pro from investing.com for making this video possible. It really gives you everything you need as an amateur investor to feel like a pro. And as I've shown you here, it even makes your favorite technical analysts on YouTube obsolete. So if you want to access this with the ability to do technical analysis at the click of a button, please take advantage of the 55% flash sale discount on top of the additional 15% off you get when you use my link, but do it now because this offer ends in less than 24 hours. As always, I encourage you to let me know what you thought about this video in the comments section below. Did you like my approach to this video? Would you like to see more videos like it again? I'm open to your feedback. Please just keep it kind. Even if you didn't like it, I'm open to listening to why you didn't like it and what you'd like to see in the future. And with that said, if you did enjoy the content while you're down there, please remember to leave a like, share this content with people, you know, it helps my channel grow, and it may also save their butts in a situation where maybe they haven't quite figured out why they need to own gold and silver yet. And with that said, that's it for this video. I want to encourage you all to take care of yourselves and take care of each other. See you in the next one. Goodbye.