2024 Election Gretchen Whitmer vs Ron DeSantis

It's Governor Gretchen Whitmer up against Governor Ron DeSantis in this hypothetical 2024 matchup. Today on Political Excess, we're going to see which of these governors would take home the win. This was suggested to me in the comments. So let's get right into this. Safe states are over a 10-point margin, likely 5 to 10 points, lean under 5 points, and tilt 1 point or less. So how do I see this going? Well, I think it'd be a really close battle. Both governors have won re-election in the recent midterm. Both are technically from important states on a presidential level. Gretchen Whitmer being from Michigan might do a little bit better in the Rust Belt. Ron DeSantis being from Florida, he might do a little bit better in the Sun Belt. I think a lot of this would actually come down to the suburbs. I think both would do pretty well with their base. Who would win over the working class voters the most? That's going to be a tough call. I'm not sure how either of these candidates would do campaigning nationally. Personally, I do think Ron DeSantis would be a little bit stronger at that. Gretchen Whitmer, I think once she got out across a lot of different states, I think her appeal would not be as strong as she might like. But having said all that, let's try to just quickly go through this. Let's start in Alaska. That, I do think, will still be double digits safe for Ron DeSantis. Hawaii will be very safe for Gretchen Whitmer. Let's go to the West Coast. Washington, Oregon, California. Those will be over 10 points. Very easy, safe for Whitmer. How about Nevada? This will be a competitive state. It's trending a little bit toward the right. I think Gretchen Whitmer is probably going to be a little bit weaker here than Ron DeSantis. Gretchen Whitmer being from the upper Midwest, she has a little bit of an accent. I think Ron DeSantis would communicate a little bit better with voters here in Clark County. I think he'd be able to eke out a win. I have this as a tilt for Ron DeSantis. Idaho and Utah, safe for DeSantis. Arizona. This state has become really tough for the Republicans to actually win as of late. I do think Ron DeSantis again here in the Southwest would be a little bit stronger than Gretchen Whitmer, and I do have Ron DeSantis narrowly winning Arizona by a tilt margin. Montana, Wyoming, safe for Ron DeSantis. Colorado, I think will be high single digits for Gretchen Whitmer. Let's go under Colorado to New Mexico. That I think will be borderline lean likely for Gretchen Whitmer. I'll put it as a lean, but it's probably going to be about 4.5 to 5.5 points. North Dakota, South Dakota, safe for DeSantis. Nebraska at large, safe for DeSantis. The second district has Omaha and some suburbs. Donald Trump won it the first time. Joe Biden won it the second time. Since redistricting, it's gotten a little bit redder. I think Gretchen Whitmer would probably do a little bit better here. This will be a lean for Whitmer, probably mid-single digits. Kansas and Oklahoma, over 10 points, safe for DeSantis. How about in Texas? That will be likely for Ron DeSantis. I think he'd do well enough. He'd get out a lot of the Trump voters. He wouldn't get completely wiped out in the suburbs. Definitely the blue cities are going to be against him, and that would motivate them to turn out. I don't think they're going to be super enthused about Gretchen Whitmer, but she'd get enough turnout to keep it to about a 5 to 7 point margin for DeSantis. Let's go to Minnesota. This will be likely for Gretchen Whitmer. Not sure of the margin here. At least mid-single digits. Could get off the higher single digits, but right now we'll say about 5 to 7 points. Under Minnesota, Iowa, that will be likely for Ron DeSantis. Probably high single digits. Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana. These are red states, and they will go safe for Ron DeSantis. Let's go up to Wisconsin. This does border Michigan, where Gretchen Whitmer is from. It's going to be a very close call. I think DeSantis would get a lot of good turnout in the Driftless area and some of those counties that have not yet went all the way toward the Republicans. I think he would do reasonable in the suburbs. I also think Gretchen Whitmer would do reasonable in the suburbs. She'd get a nice turnout in Dane County. Given Gretchen Whitmer being from a neighboring state, that might keep the margin just slightly down enough where Ron DeSantis is going to come off slightly short. And I do have Whitmer winning this by under a half a point, and it's a tilt for Whitmer. But that one was really close for me. Illinois, over 10 points safe for Whitmer. Let's go to Michigan. This is Whitmer's home state. I think that she would obviously win it. I have it as a likely. Probably 6 to 7 points for Gretchen Whitmer. But it possibly could even get up to 8 or 9 points. Indiana safe for DeSantis. Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama safe for DeSantis. How about in Florida? Ron DeSantis, his home state. I don't think there's any question, just like Gretchen Whitmer, he's going to win his home state. I have it as a likely for Ron DeSantis. Probably mid to high single digits. We need to have one presidential cycle with Florida now that it's swung toward the right. We got to see what those margins are going to be. I don't think they're going to be 12 to 15 points for the Republican. But DeSantis, I think, would carry it very comfortably in this matchup. Let's go one state up to Georgia. It's another state similar to Arizona that has eluded Republicans as of late in this matchup. I think Ron DeSantis would be able to just barely get by in the suburbs of Atlanta. Not get completely wiped out. He'd do well enough in those rural counties. Gretchen Whitmer, she would do pretty well. But given it is a neighboring state and I think Ron DeSantis will do better here in the southeast in the Sunbelt, I do have Georgia as a tilt for Ron DeSantis. Next state, South Carolina. That will be over 10 points safe for Ron DeSantis. North Carolina. That I have as a lean for Ron DeSantis. This would probably be about 4 to 5 points. Let's go to Ohio. State is trended away from the Democrats. It does border Michigan, but I still have it as a likely for Ron DeSantis. I would say anywhere between 5 and 9 points for Ron DeSantis. How about West Virginia? Well, that's an easy call. That is very safe for Ron DeSantis. Let's go all the way up to Maine. At large, this will be a likely for Gretchen Whitmer. The first district, that's much bluer. That'll be safe for Whitmer. The second district, that's much more Trump-friendly. That'll be a likely for Ron DeSantis. Next state over is New Hampshire. That I have as a lean for Gretchen Whitmer. I think she would do better in the Northeast, in the coastal areas. Wealthier, higher educated states, I think she would do a little bit better than DeSantis. And she'd carry New Hampshire by at least a couple of points. Vermont, New York. Massachusetts, Connecticut. Rhode Island. New Jersey. Delaware. Maryland. Washington, D.C. All safe for Gretchen Whitmer. I don't think Ron DeSantis would do as horrible as Donald Trump in some of these states. I still think they would probably be all over double digits. Let's go to Pennsylvania. This is another close one. I think Ron DeSantis, he would get out a lot of the Trump voters. However, I do think a lot of the suburban Philadelphia counties that used to be more Republican-friendly, I tend to think they might not be coming back at least enough for Ron DeSantis to win in this matchup. I think he's a decent candidate. But against Whitmer, I still think the suburbs would not be friendly enough for him to win it. And Gretchen Whitmer would win Pennsylvania by anywhere from 1 to 3 points. And finally, the last state is Virginia. And this will be a likely for Gretchen Whitmer, somewhere between 5 and 10 points. That is my map. And that would result in 268 electoral votes for Ron DeSantis, 270 for Gretchen Whitmer. So Gretchen Whitmer does very narrowly pull out the win here. This is as close as it can get without it being a tie. I didn't plan it out like this. This is just how the map turned out. Again, I think Ron DeSantis is a decent candidate. He would probably do well in a lot of these states, especially if he has the backing of the establishment. On the other hand, Gretchen Whitmer, she would have a strong backing from her establishment. Both of them will be competing for probably a smaller section of the electorate, mostly the suburbs, and then some turnout for each of their bases. And you're right. We do not know who they'd pick as their running mate. We don't know exactly how they would run their campaigns, which issues they would run on. But they've been successful as governors of two key states. A national campaign is going to be different than running a campaign just for one state. Ron DeSantis has had more national exposure. I think that would help him a little bit more than Gretchen Whitmer, as I think many more voters are less familiar with Whitmer than DeSantis. And another thing is both of these candidates just won reelection. So if they actually were to run for president, they would have to kind of put their own states on the back burner a little bit. And a whole lot could change over the next one to two years. These candidates might be popular now. Anything could happen. Scandals could come up. Popularity can fade. But in the end, I think it would all come down to the margins in a few key states. Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and also Nevada. I think those are all pretty much up in the air. And this would be a great battle. I could easily see it going the other way. I think this is the closest matchup I've ever done. And this would be a fun one. I'm sure there would be recounts. There'd be lawsuits. There'd be a lot of different factors at play. But this is what I've settled on. So let me know in the comments. Do you mostly agree with my map? Or do you actually disagree on five or six of these states? Let me know down below. On your way out, don't forget to like, share, and subscribe. Thank you for watching. I will see you on the next video.