Can the Phillies Compete With the Mets' and Braves' Roster? | Hittin' Season

From WHYY, it is hitting season. Hey there, podcast pals. I'm John Stolnis from The Good Fight. You can follow me on X and BlueSky at John Stolnis. Coming up, taking a look at some projections here for the Phillies and the National League East as we get ready for spring training coming up in just a few weeks. How do the projections see the NLEs shaking out with all the moves that the Mets have made and better health for the Braves in the Phillies' stagnant offseason I guess is kind of the word I would use to describe it. We'll also do some Phillies over-unders based on some of the projections, and of course we'll run down some of the latest news from around Major League Baseball in terms of signings. Some things that Phillies fans, guys we've been talking about during the course of the offseason, they're starting to come off the board as it looks like the Phillies are done anyway, but still some interesting things happening there. So we'll get to all of that here on this edition of Hittin' Season. I'm joined by Justin Kluwe from Baseball Prospectus, author of the forthcoming book Summer of the Cheap Wieners. You can buy that in all your local bookstores in Brookline and all that stuff, so Justin will talk about that more in just a couple of minutes, but you can follow him on BlueSky at Justin Kluwe. Justin, buddy, it's February, which means we've got a couple of weeks until the all-ball throwers get down to clear water. Ten days, isn't it, until pitchers and catchers report, and we all have different definitions of when the beginning of this restarts and everything, but again, here we are, ten days out, and it just feels like the cycle of sports and the sports calendar just never ceases. It's haunting to be back at this position again. The early February doldrums where everything's just soggy and gross and there's just dirty snow everywhere, and everyone's like, well, baseball will be here soon, and you're like, yeah, fine. Yeah, but it's our baseball team, so bleh. But no, I think we've been talking about this a lot. Once pitchers and catchers show up, and the gloves to mitts start popping, and you hear the optimistic Zach Wheeler reports, and Aaron Nola's got life on his fastball again, and Bryce Harper is hitting moonshots working with Kevin Long in batting practice, we're all going to get giddy again. We're all going to feel that sense of excitement, and that's just around the corner, folks. After a disappointing offseason, the excitement of real baseball players playing real baseball is not that far off. I did want to start off talking about some of the projections. It's projection season right now, as a lot of these computer models are starting. We have some more fully formed rosters, even though there are some big name free agents who are still out there, and some deals that went down here over the last couple of days have thinned that number a little bit. But the rosters are starting to get a little bit more complete, and so it's a good time to take a look at what the projection systems out there are saying. One of the ones that we like to look at is Dan Zimborski's Zips projections. You can find those over on Fangraphs. Dan, of course, if you've been a listener of this podcast for any length of time, Dan's a frequent guest on the podcast, so we call him a podcast pal, to be sure. He has, according to the Zips projections, these computer models have the Atlanta Braves, Justin, winning the National League East at 91.6 wins. They give the Braves a 47.6% odds to win the division. The Mets are in second place, 89.6 wins. They have a 33.1% chance of winning the division. And of course, your Philadelphia Phillies, your Philadelphia Phillies, 86.8 wins, 18.5% odds to win the National League East. So no surprise, I guess, to see the Phillies in third place. And these wins projections, they always come in a little bit lower. There's not a lot of 100 win projections. There's also not a lot of bottom-feeding win projections. They all kind of stay pretty close from the upper 60s to the mid-90s for the upper-reaching teams, but it's really just kind of low 90s to upper 60s, and so you don't see those wide gaps. You won't see Zips project the Braves to finish 12 games better than another team. That's just not how it works. But your thoughts on that? Yeah, I think right now, with things kind of having settled in after a somewhat spastic winter, as far as news came and went, this is a pretty healthy place to land. I think this is a realistic place to land. I don't think it's set in stone, but I feel like it's completely fair. I'm trying to think of what these teams look like lately. The exercise I've been trying to do is, what do these three teams look like if everything is working for all of them? If there are no unfortunate injuries or downslides or failures to bounce back from a rough year last year? It's a tough argument to make because you automatically think of the Phillies playing as their bummed-out versions last year with Bryce Harper and everything, but imagining a Bryce Harper hitting the way his ceiling is, even a lower ceiling than his earlier days in Washington, the MVP days, or closer to just his MVP days. I'd settle for his Phillies MVP days. Playing at that level with Kyle Schwaber, playing at the level he's able to play, it's much more evenly matched. But that's the issue. All these teams are trying to correct, or trying to fight that element that derailed them in the past, which is kind of like a total X-factor, which is injuries, which is bad luck, which is just an in-season collapse. That's ultimately what's going to be the differentiator here. Which team has prepared best for the issues they can't escape? I don't think anybody in Philadelphia would say that they feel like the Phillies have truly prepared to avoid the same kind of fate they've had the past four years. I think it's easy to put the Braves on top because you think of how deep that team is and how all they have to overcome is the fact that they were all injured last year. I think that's a steeper climb than probably people think, but it's still probably the easiest time that any of these three teams has to getting to the ceiling they need to play at. With the Mets, it's all these acquisitions they made. You can look at them individually and see how, like, yeah, these are some big moves, but also bounce-back candidates in disguise. And you're still wondering where they're thin because they still could be thin in some places. And with the Phillies, it's largely the same thing. So I think if you're looking at them objectively right now and what's on paper and what each team has to overcome, I think it's completely fair to put them in the order they put them in. But I think you can, you know, you can take these facts and frame them how you want and probably come up with a different order that might even be dramatically different. Yeah, I mean, I can see really any, I think what the Zips projections are showing us here is that this is kind of a division that's up for grabs. I mean, these numbers are pretty close. The Mets and Braves, there's two wins separating them. There's a little, about three wins separating the Mets and the Phillies and five wins between the Braves and the Phillies. This could very easily shake out exactly the way the Zips projections are saying. Like, I know what I'm afraid of being problems for the Phillies, but, like, will those be problems? Like, what is the likelihood of the starting pitching being as big an issue as I think it's going to be? You know, I don't know, but are the Phillies as worried about that? They haven't really gone out and made it look like they are. Yeah, well, I mean, if you're kind of looking at the depth chart, I mean, we haven't talked a lot about the Braves because the Braves have been pretty quiet. We've talked a lot about the Mets because the Mets have been really busy. But you look at what the Braves starting rotation looks like. I mean, you figure if Spencer Strider is, nobody talks about Spencer Strider anymore. I mean, he was the guy at the end of the 2023 season and then injuries the last couple of years have really derailed things for him. But if he's healthy, he's still a young starting pitcher who can put up the same kinds of numbers that Paul Skeens and Zach Wheeler and all those other guys can put up in the National League. And so you have your right-handed ace there. I don't know how much longer Chris Sale can keep doing what he's doing, but Chris Sale continues to be a really effective starting pitcher when he's healthy. Until proven otherwise. What's that? Until proven otherwise. Yeah, until proven otherwise, right? And then Spencer Schwellenbach, I mean, he was really effective a couple of years ago. Reynaldo Lopez, you know, he was signed to make an impact and he was hurt for most of last year. And then, you know, you've got some of these other guys, AJ Smith, Schauber, you've got Joey Wentz, who they like a lot. Bryce Elder, I'm not a big fan of, but, you know, they got some pieces there. They got a bullpen that, you know, you think is going to be a little bit better. And you just kind of wonder, you know, how much does Matt Olsen have left? You know, how much does Austin Riley have left off to Austin? Riley is still pretty young, but you know, he's still, he's been around. He's gotten hurt a lot these last few years. I mean, you're looking at an out. It's the Braves are a little bit all over the place still, I think, but there's, but they definitely are dangerous. I mean, Olsen, Ozzie, Albies, Ross, Austin, Riley, Hassan, Kim. We'll see if he, if he's able to get back at any point and play shortstop, that's a big loss for them to start off the season. Your outfields, Mike Yastrzemski, Michael Harris, the second Acuna jr. Acuna is a big question mark, you know, can he stay healthy? And is he, if he plays at an MVP level, I mean, that's really kind of the difference in this. I think that's the difference between these three teams. If you've got Acuna at the top of his game and you've got really there, he's their best player. Juan Soto is the Mets best player. And then who's the Phillies best player? Is it Bryce? Is it Kyle? And are they as good as either one of those other two guys? I mean, that's, that's the, that's a big question. I think really that's going to determine maybe who wins the division. Yeah. The Braves they've added to the back of their bullpen too, with Iglesias and Robert Suarez. So like they, they fortified that aspect as well. They strengthened their bench and I don't know, part of me feels like, you know, going back to that idea, that idea of all three of these teams playing at a hundred percent, the Braves have, I don't know, maybe the highest ceiling potentially. However, to your point about guys like Matt Olsen and Austin Riley, I mean, it wasn't just that the Braves were all injured last year. They also got some pretty underwhelming performances from some guys who have been huge strengths for them in the past. And obviously Acuna was, was a little bit of both for that. He missed a lot of time, but also when he was on the field it was not as able to make as big an impact as he has in the past. And him being able to stay on the field and stay healthy is going to, he's going to be what makes the Braves different. Him playing at the level he can play at. They just really need that star power pack, but their big hiring this off season was Walt Weiss. And I kind of talked about him, their Braves new manager earlier in the off season. And so I'll just say again, you know, that it's, it's a, it's a, it's a big thing for this to be like a new manager's first year for the Braves. However, he's a guy, all the players know and like he's been with the organization far before now. And he's said to have a better relationship with Ronald Acuna than, than Brian Snitker even did his predecessors for, for the Braves. So he's here to let this team do its thing, but Atlanta is very much like the Phillies in the, we should be good, but let's just see what we're dealing with kind of category. I think they're a little less concerned. And I think that the, the, the, the swing from like success to failure, the scope of that is probably a little shorter for the Braves, but it is, it is a similar situation. And to your point, people also need to remember, including me that we've been Brad, we've been, we've been patting the Braves on the back for lock and all these players up for these long-term deals. They're also going to age in the same way. We fear the Phillies players aging as well. They're also going to age and decline and become less reliable and scary as time goes on. So and that is, yeah. And that is something you're starting to see happen and will only continue to happen for Atlanta as well as for the Phillies, right? They've lost two seasons essentially, because of injuries, these last two seasons in 24 and 25, where they really should have continued to be playing at such a high level because of the injuries. And they're locked into a lot of these guys. It's why you haven't seen the Braves do much during these off seasons, because most of their positions are already set with regard to the Mets. I was thinking about this question and I think I know how I would answer it, I want to ask you this question first. If you could just swap rosters with the New York Mets, between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Mets, would you swap rosters? Would you swap rosters if you could with the Mets? That's such a tough question because you're asking me to first of all put aside the Mets-ness of the Mets and just look at this from a pure objective player standpoint. And just so people listening, and to give you a second to think about this, the Mets starting rotation right now, Freddie Peralta, Nolan McClain, Sean Mania, David Peterson, Kodai Senga with Clay Holmes in the mix there as well. Relief pitcher, their closer is Luke Weaver with A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley, Brazoban, Huascar Brazoban and Dylan Ross as your, oh no, Devin Williams is the closer. I was going to say you said Devin Williams, right? Devin Williams is the closer. Luke Weaver, Minter, Raley, Brazoban and Ross are the other five relievers there. You know, they got, you know, they got Craig Kimbrell coming to camp. Yeah, I saw that. What are you guys doing? I mean, it's not even a dart throw. Have fun. Yeah. Francisco Alvarez is going to start the season probably on the injured list, but he's their starting catcher. Mark Vientos is going to be their first baseman. Oh no, Jorge Polanco is going to be their first baseman. Sorry. The SPN depth chart is weird. They have it a little bit messed up, but it's going to be Jorge Polanco starting at first. Marcus Simeon is their second baseman. Brett Beatty is going to be their third baseman. Francisco Lindor is their shortstop. And then you're going to have Carson Bengi is going to be their left fielder. Tyrone Taylor looks like he's going to be the guy in center. And Juan Soto is going to be in right. And then you're going to have Mark Vientos most likely as your designated hitter. I don't feel, I'm going to just, I'm just going to answer. I don't feel like a driving need to, to say yes to this. Me either. And it's a little, it's a no, it's a little more annoying of a question. Cause you're not saying like, would you, would you, uh, like swap like position by position? No, we're saying roster. Would you just take the roster? Is it like, do you just feel like they have a better group of players in general than the Phillies do? And for me with the Mets, it really comes down to more like what the Mets are planning to do with these players that might be their, their undoing. I mean, in general, if you would rather have these players than the Phillies players, well, a lot of these guys, and this is something that won't be an issue for them in 2026, but you know, who knows what the future holds. Like I took shorter term deals because they're not interested in necessarily getting locked in somewhere. Like clearly we learned that the hard way. And, and, and by the way, I'm sorry to interrupt you. I didn't mention Bo Bichette in there. I don't know why he's not listed on the ESPN 2026 depth chart. I just glossed over it. Bo Bichette will be playing third base, not Brett Beatty. My apologies to everyone screaming at their phone or listening in their car right now. What about Bo Bichette, you moron? I've got, I've got Bichette's name written in like three different notes right in front of me. I was hearing his name in my head, whether he was being said or not. I was like, Bichette, it's Bichette because it's Bichette and Bichette. Anyway, yes, obviously Bo Bichette's a big part of that too. But again, he factors into my response here as well. So in addition to, to players being more interested in, you know, the bats are being set in the short term, which is like very good, but also roster wise, it's going to lead to more questions sooner at the very least. So I, I, I like that they, you know, these big moves, they made big moves to get good players. They deepened their lineup. They have probably the deepest lineup of, of the teams we're talking about. They got better as a team, but you look a little bit into this and you know, that rotation could be an asset, could be totally thin. You know, Freddy Peralta is well known as a five inning guy. As a starter, you don't know what you're going to get from Kodai Senga this year and how, how healthy he's going to be able to stay. And they're relying on some, albeit, you know, elite level, but rookie talent pitching. So that's just come out of their farm system to, to, to also fill in the gaps. You know, I feel like the, the, the, their focus definitely tilted more towards the lineup this time. I don't like, and if you're saying you're focusing on defense, which David Cern said they were doing when they traded for Marcus Simeon, the Brandon Nemo trade, and then you bring in Bo Bichette to play a position he's never played before. And then you bring in Jorge Polanco to play a position he's barely played before. I don't know. I mean, did the plan just change or do we have different definitions of defense or is the belief just so much that, and this could very well be the case, that Bichette is, is a good enough athlete to, to adjust and, and become an effective third baseman, even with the concerns about his arm that people have had. So I don't know. All this to say that I think you can find enough flaws in what the Mets have done, you know, despite as, as impressive and as deep as they've made themselves, you can find enough flaws in what they've done to not make the answer to your question be like an aggressive. Yes. Like it's not, it's not, it's not an instant like, oh yeah, that team is way better than this team. They both have questions to answer. And a lot of them are just going to get answered when people start playing baseball. Like if you ask me, obviously, if you're switching the Dodgers roster with the Phillies roster, I'm saying yes. And I'd probably say yes. If it's the Braves roster. But I will say this, the fit with the Phillies roster has going for it is the consistency that it's displayed every season since 2022. They've won more games in the regular season every year since 2022. This group has shown that they can get through 162 game schedule and play very well during those 162 games and win enough games to win two straight division titles. And with the Mets, it's a different roster. It's certainly been a, it's certainly shake been shaking things up. They appear to be more talented than a year ago, but we've never seen this roster play this play play together. So it could, it's, it's, it's riskier. Like if you were going to swap the rosters there, I think you're feeling probably more secure with a higher floor for the Phillies roster. Although I do think that floor is a little lower this year than it has been in previous seasons, but I think the floor with the Mets roster is lower than the Phillies. And so it just kind of depends on like, do you feel better taking some risk there? Or do you feel better knowing that this Phillies team is probably going to win a minimum of 88 games, if not 90 games, and certainly will be competing for a wild card in the Mets. It's there. You don't really know they could win a hundred games with this roster. They could also win like 74 games with this roster. It's, it's kind of all over the place. And so I'm probably as much as I have not enjoyed this team coming back almost in its exact same form here in 2026, I'm probably sticking with the Phillies roster over swapping it with the Mets roster. Until proven otherwise is going to be a great name for the 2026 video yearbook, because that is the phrase I keep coming back to. The Phillies have a good back of the bullpen, you know, they, they, they should have a better, more consistent offense, but you know, when are you not catching yourself saying that and like, what is consistency? Well, that's, that's for a July episode when we're really getting into the They have young players ready to step into the roles they have open. And again, you know, I don't want to make every conversation about this, but right now it really kind of, a lot kind of falls out of, of the Bichette fiasco and I'm not going to bring it. I'm not going to drag us through it or anything, but it does kind of, it does define the off season. Yes, it does. Now at any point when the Phillies say we like our guys and we're content with our team, you can say, no, you're not. No, you're not. Cause you tried to, you tried to change it up. We all saw, and it fell out from like the floor fell out from under you. And now you got this team and this team can win. And I believe that like, you're good with this team, but now there's just kind of like this weird context around it. But again, they face planted in free agency. Every core is aging, but this one didn't really adjust. And that's, that's, I think in general, the shorthand for what we're frustrated with, with, with this team. And the rotation is very much a question, but like they have, they have pluses and minuses just like the other two teams we were just talking about. And, and there's a, there's enough candidates to potentially play significantly better than they did last year. And more importantly, I like that we're getting into it with the, with the young guys. I know that might not have been the plan and it kind of, kind of was the plan last year. Then they pulled off of it and then, you know, some other stuff happened, the injury to Crawford, painters stumbling in, in, in triple-A all none of it's so freak, like none of it's so bad that you can't imagine. You can't still imagine these guys as being a part of the future and the Phillies, even if this is, you know, technically plan B or whatever from, from, or Bichette was plan B and this was always plan A regardless of how this was going to go down. Charlotte Barnes wrote about Justin Crawford and his work that just as, as, as a playing his position as an outfielder in, in the athletic. And you know, I wouldn't say that it got me like ready to run through a wall or anything. But it's pretty much telling you that like, yeah, all the stuff that you've heard that he struggles with especially like defensively as a center fielder, the things everybody's going to be harping on when he's playing center field on opening day, presumably his positioning, his first steps when the bat, when the ball's coming off the bat, the angles he's taking, you know, all of that stuff is what they're working on. They're, they're hammering like that speed is something that you use. It's not something you rely on, which is something he's been dinged on about, about a lot where he's trying to cover poor routes with, by just using his elite speed. They're cutting down on the number of steps he takes. They're improving his angling in the likely direction that the ball is going to be hit for each batter and they're working on him turning his hips as he moves. So again, you can get that extra step and they're just drilling, drilling, drilling. And he's working with Eric Davis, who has floated around the major leagues. He's a, I believe all-star and gold glove center fielder. He's floated around the major leagues. I know he was a special assistant with the Mets or with the Reds at one point. I looked into a little bit, he worked with Nick Senzel in 2022. If you remember him, he was, he was like this great, considered a sort of Ben Zobris super utility type coming up, who was supposed to be really good. I mean, it's like three, four years of just injury ravaged seasons. This guy just couldn't stay on the field, but he was working with Davis at one point. You know, as a, as a super utility guy, the idea was he was going to be able to acquiesce to whatever position they wanted, but this was sort of, they used Davis to try and, you know, transition him into center field and it went really well. And he was like a good defensive player and like an asset. And you know, it's not that you doubt that Davis is having a good impact on Crawford. I was just kind of curious what his track record was. And that was an interesting case where it was like, yeah, this was a guy who, uh, you know, the numbers wound up not being there, but mostly because he just couldn't stay on the field. If Justin Crawford can stay healthy, Eric Davis and like having access to him and the outfield bootcamp, they called it are among the things that I was talking about last week, where the Phillies are going to give Justin Crawford everything he needs to succeed given the importance of his role moving forward. And like, this is just, this is one of those things. This is a good resource. So again, it's nothing that like the Phillies shouldn't be doing for this kid and that he shouldn't be doing as he prepares for this new phase of his career, but it's just, you know, they're doing it, you know, they're doing it and they're investing in Justin Crawford. And I think that's a, that's a, that could potentially be a very good positive for this team and something to be excited about for this season. The Justin Crawford situation with the Phillies in 2026 is, is really interesting for a kid who is one of their top prospects. He's been one of their top prospects for a while. All the numbers in the minors are great. He's done nothing but hit at every level. Yet, I think most people, and I think there's a part of me that I would have to include myself in this, are pessimistic about him being a, having a positive impact at the major league level this year. Now, a part of that is- You read that Baseball America article and just got totally bummed out a couple of months ago. Well, guess what? Baseball America just hired that guy from the Braves to write a regular feature column who got banned from baseball for a little while. So, I don't know, you know, just if that does anything for you, just keep that in mind. Well, I mean, it's, it's the, it's everybody talking about, we, I mean, we know so much about these prospects now and the ground ball rate and, and the, this and the defensive metrics, like you're talking about, like what we have really heard most about Justin Crawford are all the things that he can't do, or the things that he doesn't do well, or the things that might not translate in the majors. And those things, that's why I think there's a lot of pessimism about the outfield. And I feel some of that myself is because Justin Crawford, no one's talking him up that he's going to be an all-star caliber player. I mean, and, and yet, you know, that's, that certainly is a possibility for him. It's not going to happen in 2026 and that's okay. You know, might not happen for a couple of seasons with, with Justin Crawford, if it happens at all. But I mean, I think it's just interesting. Like I agree with you, we should be excited about this young position player who's been, who's a former first round pick. He's done nothing but play well at the minor league level. And there's just, there is more pessimism. Would you, would you agree with me that there's more pessimism than optimism about Justin Crawford playing center field for the Phillies this year? Yeah. And that's why I've, I've tried to end a couple of shows by pointing out, you know, I'm not trying to be the overly positive guy, but I'm trying to just weigh the scales a little bit. The other side, just reminding people, Hey, remember this guy has performed extremely well at every new level that the Phillies have put him on. He is a great young ball player getting his chance, you know, and what I really, what I really want, and I think this is totally realistic is for Crawford to come out like on opening day, let's assume he is the center fielder on opening day, come out and like, just have one play that day where he runs down a ball in the gap and it's like a great play. And it's just, you know, they play that music and he runs it down. It's fine. And then like, he also hits like a line drive, you know, or a fly ball that day. And then, you know, after that, he can go through whatever typical rookie, you know, new guy struggles that he's going to go through and make his adjustments and ultimately prove, you know, whether or not he belongs here. But like that first day, just do those two things that are so to fit how people have come to define him, uh, that he can't hit anything, anything but grounders and that he takes terrible roots on fly balls. Just like, do that, prove those two things wrong in like even just one play instances and just get, get people off on the right foot just to show them that like, yes, I can do this, you know, I'm going to, it might take a little bit, but I can do this. Yeah. Let us see, let us, uh, get a little taste of the glimpse of it. Yeah. Well, let's, let's transition then and let's do these, um, rather quickly, some, some over unders based on the Zips projections for some of the Phillies individual players. And I'll throw Justin Crawford out there first Zips is projecting. And I was kind of surprised. It seems a little bit higher than I was expecting a seven 27 OPS for Justin Crawford here in 2026. Justin, uh, do you think, is that over or under seven 27 for you for Justin Crawford here in 26? Jeez, you're right. That does feel, um, feels kind of generous. And even after what I just said, I feel like I have to say over, but I think the realistic approach is just, it's a say under, I think, you know, I can put them, put them between 700 and seven 27. Yeah. Like put them in that window and that's still encouraging. Yeah. And if he plays a, if he, if his defense is better, I mean, then I think, you know, if even if you get like a six 90 OPS, that's not great, but in the nine hole playing good defense, you'll still be a two to a two and a half wind player, uh, in, in that case. So I'm on the under there as well. I thought that was an optimistic, uh, look at Justin Crawford and his offensive output this year. Uh, Trey Turner, two 85 batting average. I'm going to say, Oh, he won the batting title last year, but he only hit his three with three Oh four average, which I mean, back in the day, that would have been like, good for like 12th place, like in the 1980s. But, um, that's when baseball was at its zenith, of course. Oh yeah. You know, thank you. I'll say everyone knows if you want to listen to a podcast from the 1980s, you can, you can go ahead and do that. That's yeah. That's, that's the John method. I might have to do a podcast where I relive one week from every season in the 1980s at some point and just go through it year by year. And Eric Davis will be mentioned prominently in, in one of those seasons. Well, we got a nice work stoppage coming up. You're going to have to fill the hours somehow not to fill the hours somehow. I'm going to say under on a two 85 batting average for Trey Turner, Justin, that's, uh, in his first two seasons in Philadelphia, I don't think he was over two 85. So I'm going to say under, uh, I'll say, I'll say over, I think, uh, these are the kind of things that have to go right. And they could, you know, maybe not a 300 season, but, uh, I think, you know, that's a healthy place for him to land batting average wise is over. It's totally possible. Yep. Okay. Uh, Bryce Harper, 3.1 wins above replacement. I'll say, I don't think that's a good enough number. I think he needs to have, that's not enough impact for me for this year. So I guess this is a way of saying, do you think Bryce Harper has more impact than he had a year ago? Yeah. According to baseball reference, 3.1 is exactly the amount of wins above replacement he had last year. So yes, I'd say that that number has to be higher, uh, for the Phillies to be doing as well as we need them to be like somewhere closer to 2024 and all-star season where he was just like a little under five wins above or over, above replacement. Like that's, that's a place I can, I can live with and that's where he's kind of gotta be. Yep. I agree. And I think he will be over 3.1 war this year. Uh, Bryson Stott and 98 weighted runs created for those who aren't familiar with fan graphs, weighted runs created. It just, um, it, it waits different, uh, the different batted ball outcomes tries to strip away luck. It factors in the position of players playing. And that is essentially saying that Bryson Stott would be 2% below the league average player in terms of offense. So they're basically calling for a league average offensive season, slightly below league average offensive season for Bryson Stott with a 98 weighted runs created. Plus I'll say that he'll be slightly over that. I don't think it's going to be by a significant margin. I think he's probably going to be in the 104 to 105 range, which, um, isn't great. Uh, but I think that's kind of where he is. What do you think? Well, I want to be careful. I don't project everyone to play exactly as they did last year because you know, that's often a trap in these, uh, in these future guessing scenarios. Uh, but in the case of Bryson Stott, I already kind of fired all my shots here last, last year and the year before saying that like, yeah, no, way over, way over. I think the phrase, what did you say? Politely or select slightly, slightly below average offensive output is, is, is going to be the name of the group Bryson Stott will be in whether or not it's this exact number of weighted runs created. I mean, you know, maybe it's a little more, maybe it's a little less, but this is the ballpark he'll be, he'll be playing in. So over, under, do you want to, I'll say, uh, I'll say over, over, but you know, not so much that he's not out of that group. Yeah. Gotcha. Kyle Schwarber 43 home runs. Of course, I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to get to the 56 that he got to last year. And 43 would be more in line with what he's done throughout his career. Justin over, under 43 home runs for Kyle Schwarber, uh, under, but still over 40. Okay. I'll say over, I'll say he gets to like 45. So I'll say it goes a little bit over 43. JT rail Muto 122 games played. So again, that essentially means he doesn't play in 40 games this year for the Phillies, which again, as an aging catcher who you just gave, uh, uh, what is it? 15 million a year? No. What is he So 15, three for 45. Is that what they gave him? I think that's right. Yeah. Three for 45. So 15 million a year. Um, yeah, I guess you want them to play that many games. Um, what do you think over or under 122 games? Uh, I gotta say, uh, under 122 games, uh, history is just not on his side. Unfortunately. Yeah. I'll go with the under as well. I think it'll be in the hundreds, obviously, but more like one 10, something like that would be my guess. One 10 was the number that popped into my head was as soon as you said that great minds and all those different things, nerds of a feather. I like boom. Nailed both of those sayings. Those are well done. Why people, why people come here? Alec boom, 27 doubles. Uh, we remember just in a couple of seasons ago, he was like in the forties, I think in terms of doubles, his career, his career season, when he started the all-star game, uh, in 2024, uh, last year, obviously slipped quite a bit and some time due to injury. I'm going to say, I'm going to say under 27 doubles for Alec bone this year. Yeah. I'm also going to say under that doesn't portend well for him. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, I don't want to be negative just because we kind of thought like he was on his way out, but what I'd like to believe is that, you know, 2024 is certainly the ceiling. And, uh, last year, you know, he actually finished with a higher batting average right around the same on base percentage as his all-star season, but numbers like doubles. Yeah. He was, he was way down in doubles last year, especially compared to 2024. I don't know if you even see just like a sort of default sort of bounce back for him in this department. I could see him hitting like more than 27, but again, not, not much more, you know, if you're capping to like 30 doubles the two years before 2024, when he was like, I'm an offensive contributor. Like I'm a solid bat lower in the lineup who knocks and runs and hits doubles. He was hitting like 25, 30 doubles a season being back in that ballpark is possible, you know, over 27, but not more than 30. Yeah. Okay. Uh, and then the last offensive player I'm going to mention here, Adolis Garcia, they have at 25 home runs for the Phillies. Um, yes. So, uh, I'm going to say over, I'm going to say over because again, why one of these guys is going to work, right? Like, they got to find some power somewhere. I don't know where the power is coming from other than Kyle Schwarber on this team. Yeah. Even if all he does is hit home runs and he winds up with a ton of home runs, but his other numbers are like, aren't great. Fine. You know, like that's what they were missing. So, you know, and again, he's supposed to be a significantly better defender than Castellanos. So I'll go with over as well. I'll say that he approaches 30. Why not? Let's, let's, let's feel good about something for a change. Let me ask you about a couple of pitchers here. Christopher Sanchez, they have at 178 and a third innings. He pitched over 200 innings a season ago. So this is calling for, um, a lighter workload, or maybe he hasn't misses for three or four starts or something like this. I mean, he was remarkably durable, but you always do. Ken, this is going to hold true to the next guy too, Jesus Lozardo, but a jump in innings for these guys. It wasn't such a big jump for Sanchez as it was for Lozardo. Um, but I'm going to say, I think he's over 178 and a third innings this year, Justin. Yeah. Yeah. And that's not absurd for him. You mentioned the 200 innings, 202 innings last year, uh, 78 and change is closer to where he was in 2024 when he was an all-star. I mean, like you said, this is not an insurmountable or unfamiliar number of innings for him to pitch. And yeah, even factoring in a couple of, a couple of, uh, of missed starts here and there, I think you can still say over and not overwork his arm. Jesus Lozardo at 3.99 ERA. That's close to where he was at last year, but again, that ERA got ballooned because of those two horrific starts where he was, where he was tipping his pitches. You take away those two starts, he would end ERA in the low threes. So for Jesus Lozardo, Justin, uh, over or under a 3.99 ERA. Under, you know, this is another case where it's just kind of gotta happen. Like the, uh, Sanchez and Lozardo, I think are going to have some more pressure put on them this year, uh, to really step up. Um, again, you know, a lot of question marks right now and maybe fewer later and who knows what the timetables like and all, all the, all that stuff still applies, but right now you're going into the season and you're just like, who don't we have like a bunch of question marks about, and it's those two guys and they've proven how well they can pitch before in the past. And I think there should be no problem for Lozardo to pitch better, you know, pitch, pitch us a very similar season to last year and just don't include those two games where everything exploded. Quick prediction. Do they sign Jesus Lozardo to a contract extension before the end of spring training for the end of spring training? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I agree. Yeah. I think they do too. I think they want to get that done, especially with uncertainty over Wheeler and Nola, who we're going to talk about next. I think they want to regain control. You know, I think they, they want to, they want to, it's like when you can't, something else is going wrong. So you go home and clean your basement. You're just like to get, get control. So I will say signing Jesus Lozardo way better than cleaning your basement. True, true enough. And we will celebrate that when it happens for sure. Uh, they have a Zach Wheeler at 21 starts Justin, and I'm going to go with the over on this. It sounds as though they are optimistic that he could be ready to go by opening day. That's what, that's what everything, all the reports we're hearing is that, you know, he's not, he's, he's going to start behind the other pitchers, but it doesn't sound like he's going to start too far behind. So at the very, at the very worst, I mean, it's sounding like, you know, middle of April, but it could be even sooner than that. And if it is, then he's going to sail over the 21 starts. Um, cause I, I think, uh, yeah, I think it's, I'm encouraged by what we're hearing. I just, you hope the effectiveness is, is close to what it was before the thoracic outlet syndrome, but I think 21 starts, I think that's low. I think he goes over. What do you think? Well, I'm kind of torn, you know, on the one hand, 21 starts is such a low number. And you know, the question of the playoffs last year being, oh, can you imagine this team, but with Zach Wheeler and what the difference could have been there. And he still made 24 starts last year. So 21 is unarguably low. On the other hand, I'm trying to give this such an emotional cushion. Wheeler specifically, you know, I, it's, it's, it's kind of like easy to have dark thoughts about some of these, what if scenarios coming into 2026. And I think a lot of that stems from the crappy moods. A lot of people got put in a couple of weeks ago, but with Wheeler specifically, and having known this was going to be the case all off season long, I've just tried to provide myself with, with enough space from this to not like, oh yeah, I'm, oh, he's doing, he's doing better. Oh, opening day. It's totally possible when they say that, do they mean opening day starters? Zach Wheeler is, is like on the table or that he's just available on opening day. I don't know. I'm the, the point is I'm going to say under, not because I, that, that like, obviously his, his return is going to be important to this team. Huge, huge. And it's because of that level of importance that I am saying things like under 21 games, because I got to give, I got to give this particular injury case, all the cushion in the world, come back healthy. The last thing anybody needs is a Zach Wheeler, rushing things back, pitching through discomfort. Then he goes away again, you know, continuing to like have question marks pop up. So again, emotional cushion under 21 games. I hope it's more, but that's what I got to do. All right. I, I, I hear what you're saying. And I think it's, if they need to push it, then I'm fine with that too. Right. I'm not like saying that he's got to be ready by opening day. I'd love it. It'd be great if he is, but you're right. I think play it safe. If he needs time, there's a setback and that's something else too. Like he may have a setback in spring training, you know, like, Oh, I got a dead arm, you know, it's just working your way back. Okay. We're going to, we're going to just kind of push it back a couple of weeks. That wouldn't be great news. It would certainly little ominous season, but I think they need to be overly cautious. And I agree with you. I want them to be, I want them to be effective when he comes back. And so if that means it's on, if that means if we get 18 to 20 really effective starts from Zach Wheeler, from the time he comes back to the end of the season, I'd rather have that than get him, then have him rushed for opening day. Yeah, I think that's exactly right. And yeah, if Zach Wheeler, you know, if it takes a little longer and you find yourself with a shortage of starting pitching, well, I mean, guess what that's a lack of planning on your part. So if you decided that wasn't an issue you needed to address and it becomes one people are going to notice you're going to get Taiwan walkered and that's how it's going to be until Zach Wheeler comes back. And you know, I like, I get Taiwan Walker did good things for the Phillies last year. I'm not counting on it again. They have a Aaron Nola with a 4.25 ERA, Justin. This is I. So the question is, is Aaron Nola cooked or not? And that's really the way to phrase this, to, to phrase this number, because he's got so many years left on this contract. If he's cooked, it's going to be like Steven Strasberg levels of awfulness with this contract. And I just, I almost can't bring myself to believe that Aaron Nola is fully cooked at this point. So I'm going to say just for my own sanity, that the number is going to be under 4.25 for Aaron Nola. I think he'll have an ERA in the threes somewhere here in 2026. I'm going to believe in the even year Aaron Nola weirdness that we've seen over these last few years. I'm going to believe in the bounce back for our boy, for your boy, Justin Aaron. Nope. Nope. I can't trust this man. I don't think I've ever, I've ever trusted a pitcher less than Aaron Nola. It's such a, it's such a unique thing to know that like, yeah, every time you might see seven shutout innings, but then, you know, like it feels less and less likely that, that that's what you're going to see. And it doesn't matter if you saw that the last three times out, you know, and this is a big game and you got to see the big version of him step up and then it's not. So I have no trust in Aaron Nola. I can't really go back on that and I don't really see a need to. So I, but I, I, again, to your point, this is another situation where you're like, yeah, but if I say this, then something's gone horribly wrong and not this, this team can afford maybe two horribly wrong things at most with the season not being over way too early. So, uh, what I'm going to say is under still over four, but under four 25, he finished last year with an ERA over six. He's got some space to come down, still be as annoyingly ineffective as he is and have an ERA under four 25. That I think is totally possible. All true words, all true words, a couple others, two more, uh, Andrew painter they have with an ERA of 4.80. And I know where that's coming from. It's coming from a really bad AAA season last year where he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Uh, it's, it's funny too. We're talking about Justin Crawford, kind of a lot of pessimism around him, man, the bloom is off the rose with Andrew painter. There was no more, uh, uh, pitching prospect in Philly's history that people were as excited about as Andrew painter, as much as Dave Dabrowski and the front office was talking him up three years ago, two years ago, I think it was, but you know, before the Tommy John, uh, came up in spring training, I mean, he was going to be a part of that rotation at like, what was it? 21 years old or 20 years old or something like that. And he was going to dominate as, as a 20 year old rookie. And now last year he has his struggles in AAA and people are not expecting anything. They're not expecting anything. And maybe that's a great way for him to enter the season. I saw that, uh, the, the latest odds for nationally rookie of the year do not have him anywhere near the top five, which I thought was very interesting that just in baseball, it seems like people are, are soured on Andrew painter. So the 4.80 ERA certainly takes into account what happened in AAA last year. And then obviously coming up to the majors, it's going to be difficult. I think it's going to be under that. I really do. I think he's going to be low force maybe, but maybe even in the threes. Cause I, I, I don't think the stuff went away. The command was an issue last year, but the stuff is still elite level stuff. And so I know that we're kind of, I think we're just pessimistic about all the Phillies prospects right now. And Andrew painter is getting sucked into that. And I get it. He didn't have a good year last year, but I think, I think he comes in under 4.8. Yeah. Uh, I'm glad, I'm glad you got there. Uh, I was worried where that was going, but I'm glad, I'm glad you got there that, uh, we're both, we're both going to say yes. I think Andrew painter, despite everything we'll still be capable of having an ERA under four 80. I mean, look, there's a, there's a lot of this that, um, it's the kind of the same philosophy as, uh, when it comes to prospects as like people who leave, um, comments about restaurants online, where you're only really leaving one, if you had the best possible time or the worst possible time. And there really is not a lot of, if prospects are being talked about as, as prominently as these guys are among Philly circles, then there's people who are going to the best guy ever. And now like something has happened and he doesn't look as good. And now he's out, he's done. This was a waste, another blown chance for the, for the Phillies. But yeah, I mean, all, all you heard last year during painter's struggle struggles were that like, I don't think anybody was worried about the stuff, the natural ability. It was look, he's, he's doing the, uh, he's running into a level of pitching that he, or a level of hitting that he hasn't experienced before. He is pitching to a lot of guys who have faced major league regularly. That's a different level of pitching that every pitcher has had to adjust for at AAA and Andrew painter, you know, had just blasted through so many levels of minor league ball that getting up here and facing that level of hitting while also recovering from Tommy John surgery led to guess what? Less than the chosen one levels of pitching. It's completely natural sequence of events and it does not by any mean, or by any means suggest that he has dropped off beyond the point of, of, uh, effectiveness. I mean, go back to baseball America now, which was the outlet that was gushing so much over him. Like last year when, when I was reading you those scouting reports where they were saying like this, these were objective, non Phillies related people saying like, this is, this guy's the best guy we've seen since like Jose Fernandez or, or, or Garrett Cole were the names that were getting thrown out there. And they're still saying that like he's retained his premium velocity. That, that is one of his biggest attributes and the things that make him, uh, such a skilled young pitcher. And then like the adjustments they've made and the movements he's made. And then, and, um, uh, the backslide to his arm slot that, that, uh, started appearing as the season was going on last year, like all these things that they noticed that they had him adjust that they like, they, they, they, the level of hitting he was facing, they had him adjust to that as well. I mean, like, we'll, we'll see what the results of this are going to be, but ultimately you saw Andrew painter run into a very normal obstacle in a player's development. And he was having to do it at a time when he was also coming back from like, you know, the biggest injury that pitchers of that age are going to face and have to come back from. I think Andrew painter wound up having a very normal year with all those factors in place. And I think that still leaves room for him to struggle as a major leaguer for the first time, but this team's got a lot of plans around him. I think he can play a huge role and yeah, I think four 80 is too high of an ERA for him, even after last year and even being a rookie. Agreed. And, uh, last pitcher, Joe on Duran 29 saves, Justin over or under 29 saves for Duran. I'll say over, I'll say over, I think he's going to be a saves machine. Yep. 40, 40 plus saves for Duran. He's not competing with anyone. He's the guy. Yeah. Brad Keller, Jose Alvarado, and John Duran are going to be a terrific back of the bullpen for the Phillies. Yeah. Yeah. And, uh, you know, I think the kid that they got from, from Boston for Matt Strahm to, um, Jonathan Bowlin. Yeah. Bowlin. Thank you. Uh, from Kansas city. What did I say? Boston. I said, Boston. Yeah. Sorry. He, he was in Boston before and the Phillies signed him when he was from the red side and they trained him. There you go. Yeah. That H and his name was an R until he went to Boston. That's right. Yeah. They, they said it so many times that it was actually changed officially to an H. That's that makes sense. All right. Uh, finishing up with a couple of bits of news from around major league baseball in terms of signing the last couple of days, a Eugenio Suarez assigned a deal, a contract with the reds. He's the power hitting third baseman who started the season with the diamondbacks and finished up with the Mariners a season ago, one year, $15 million contract for a Eugenio Suarez major league MLB trade rumors projected him for a three year, $63 million contract at the start of the off season. Um, this, so Suarez was a big power guy, 49 homers a year ago. Um, overall hit two 28 though, with a two 98 on base, but then some of my five 26 slugging percentage, despite hitting just two 28 with a two 98 on base percentage. So really it was like Homer or strike. He even had a below average walk rate for the second year in a row. So, I mean, not, not even a guy who drew his walks. So I get it. And you know, his defensive output, negative since six defensive runs saved last year, negative three outs above average. I just ask, you know, without boom earning $10 million this year, Suarez is going to get five, $5 million more. They're both on one year deals. Boom was negative three defensive runs saved a season ago and negative two outs above average defensively. And then of course the offensive numbers, um, bone was better with batting average, better with on base, but way behind Suarez in terms of power at third base. I don't know, Justin thoughts on the fact that Suarez went for one year and $15 million with the Cincinnati Reds. His former team has gone back home to Cincinnati. I'll tell you what would have been interesting. If, if Suarez had been the answer for the power bat, and then you tried to do something else with, with Garcia, like Garcia deal never happens. Then, and then you, then maybe Bader is the guy you go after for the outfield instead. And, you know, that's your answer to that. That is probably a better team. Uh, and I think that, you know, again, going back to this idea of change that people wanted to see, but it would be the kind of change people would want to see where you're saying like, yes, he's a different kind of player at third base and he's going to be good at things that bone wasn't. And, you know, probably not as good at some things bone was able to do, but it's just a different kind of profiles differently. And you know, what Suarez is there to do. He's there to hit home runs and, you know, be, be another power That would have been very cool. You can't even throw like the, the different outfield situation in there. Cause who knows what would have happened. So, but even, even if you're just talking about swapping out bone for Suarez, I mean, yeah, I would have been, I would have probably been into that for sure. I think the Phillies, they kind of, you know, I don't know if this is the deal, but it just sort of starts to feel like they're just Rip Van Winkle waking up with a long beard and being like, well, these players are all taking like these short little deals. Like when did this, when this happened? And then like, there's all these quick little short-term deals are flashing by their heads as they're waking up after snoozing against a tree. It just, it feels like the Phillies decided long ago they were done with the exception of Bichette. You know, Bichette seemed like the special exception, but it just kind of feels like there was no wiggle room at all for like any of these, any of these like these kinds of deals where you can take advantage of the market. I mean, this was, this is just so far below what anybody thought he was going to, what he was going to get that, you know, I mean, I guess it's too late in the off season to trade bomb. So not having that existing third base spot, I guess, but I mean, I don't, it just feels lazy. It really does. It just feels like, well, just bring everybody back. Let's try it again. And that's fine. You know, to a degree, but this was such a, these last, you know, the Bader deal and the Suarez deal, just, they were cheaper. They were less expensive on the market than anybody was expecting. And on paper, everything we've been talking about is totally reasonable that like, yeah, this team, things can work and people could play better and they could be really good. But you know, the biggest, the biggest vibe, the biggest vibes boost that Phillies fans have gotten since the Bichette thing went down was like Ben Davis being like, the Mets have loser energy. And everyone just got mad about it because they were like, well, great. Yeah. Let them get mad that you said that and act like you're a representative of all of this. And yeah. So like that, they're just, there's just, you know, there's still that lingering that's, that's just lingering in the air. It's not exactly Jimmy Rollins. We're the team to beat. Come on, Bryce, you're supposed to be good at that. Right. Showing up at spring training and being like, I'm gonna make a baseball explode this season. I'm going to be the first player to do that. Like just make an absolute statement of some kind like that. And like, give us a daily news headline to just run with all spring. That would do wonders for people. I got all new blood. Great man. Let's, let's roll with that. It's a whole different color. The blood that I, the rainbow blood. It's a blood too. It's thicker than normal blood. That's okay. Right. That's too much. And then one last thing before we wrap up here, David Robertson, announced his retirement this week. So what's the over under when he signs with the Phillies for a fourth time this year, bud? Uh, David Robertson. Yeah. Uh, I mean, you know, no, thanks. Seems like a great guy. I mean, he seems like a, but Oh yeah. He came here the first time they started using him in like media materials, like right off the bat, he was like high five and went to fun. He's doing like a special handshake with the fanatic at one point. Like, yeah, he's great. Great vibes going off the guy. Just, uh, you know, how, I don't know if it would be the best way to prove that you're not an old president of baseball ops who's running out of moves. If you like, well, I guess I have David Robertson sort of like he's thumbing through a Rolodex at the trade deadline and like all the names are just crossed off and say retired except for David Robertson's. And he's like, ah, I can't possibly, they're not going to be like, but maybe, maybe, maybe. I mean, fourth time's the charm. That's how it goes. I mean, it's, he had some good moments for the Phillies, but it was just so funny. And even in, even in the playoffs last year, man, they ran away from him in the playoffs. They wanted David. They, he was, he was not going to get in a game in any meaningful spot in, in, in 20, in the 2020 retirement. You know, that's, that's going to be happy trails. Yeah. Happy trails. All right. Let's finish up here with some final thoughts. Uh, Justin, you got anything final for us, man? Book release date is almost here, isn't it? Yeah. Book release this month. Summer of the cheap wieners. Uh, you'll, you'll, uh, I believe you can catch me on, and I'll, I'll keep people up to date on this, but you catch me on a, on a couple of other, uh, shows talking about the book and everything. I just, I just did a segment for a podcast called hooks and runs. That's a baseball and history and music podcast. So I actually talked to a very, a little, very little bit, but I did talk about music and I was interesting to be like, I'm on a podcast talking about something other than the Phillies. Um, this is apparently you can do that. So that was a, that was a fun experience. Yeah. Yeah. Like Craig, Craig Estenblom and his podcast, uh, hooks and runs. Uh, so seek that out. I, I appeared on a recent episode of that talking about summer of the cheap wieners. Um, but yeah, if you like baseball, but also baseball history, but also good, a good narrative, a good story that is told humorously with the right amount of respect, but also dunking on the team that lost 111 games. This is a great book for you. I've been, I've been saying like, Hey, if you want a great book for your dad, go ahead and pick it up. But it really is a book intended to make something as a, as, as what some people might call eye rolling a topic as baseball history palatable for more than just people who sit in easel, easy chairs and fall asleep in sunbeams. This is a book that I want everyone to be able to enjoy. And I believe it was written that way. Uh, so even, even if you're just buying it to support me, which I know some people are, I do eventually you read it and find out, Oh, you know what this book was for me after all, I think it has a wider reach than, than perhaps maybe it is assumed, but summer of the cheap wieners out this month, had a lot of fun writing it, trying to work on a followup project right now. That's also a lot of fun. So please, uh, please buy my book, summer of the cheap wieners. And I'd happily sign a copy for you. And brookline.com is where the, you can go, uh, you can get a copy of that, right? Brookline. Yes. You can buy it through the publisher. It's available elsewhere, but, uh, but yeah, brooklinebooks.com you can pre-order or pre-order or order a copy of it now. All right. Well, there you go, folks. Do it, do it. As soon as you've done listening to this podcast, brooklinebooks.com. All right, everybody that's going to do it for this edition of hitting season. I want to remind you all that this podcast, if you're listening to us on one of your favorite podcast apps, Spotify or Apple podcasts, and you want to watch the show. You can watch every one of our round table shows on the WHYY YouTube page. Lots of great stuff on the WHYY YouTube page. They got a studio two stuff there. They got some other shows, some other features, vignettes and stuff. So subscribe to the WHYY YouTube page, and then you'll get every round table episode of hitting season as well. And of course, tell your friends and family members about hitting season. As we get ready for Philly spring training baseball, almost here, just a couple of weeks away, 10 days away. As you heard Justin say in the beginning of the podcast. So we it's right around the corner. We've got the world baseball classic coming up in March and Tuesdays. Baseball is going to be back and it's gonna be fun before you know it. Thanks everybody for tuning in. We will talk to you next time right here on hitting season.