Can Europe Replace America’s F-35 Fighter Jet? | WSJ

This is one of the world's most expensive weapons. The F-35 program, that includes the production and maintenance of thousands of jets over the next five decades, is projected to cost the US more than $2 trillion. It's also a hugely successful export for the US, contributing to America's dominance in the arms trade. But following President Trump's pressure tactics on US allies, some countries have said they are rethinking their reliance on American weapons. This shift, combined with technological advancements and competition from US and European jets, threatens the F-35's dominance. Buying a fighter jet isn't just about buying a single plane, it's a commitment to a future relationship with the country that sold you it. F-35s cost around $82 million a piece, depending on the model and number of jets purchased. But on top of that, buyers have to pay Lockheed Martin, the US company that manufactures the jets, for maintenance, pilot training, spare parts and software updates. But Trump's temporary pause of intelligence sharing with Ukraine has put countries' dependency on the US to maintain their F-35s under scrutiny. That caused a lot of countries to be very scared, to think, well, are they going to do this with us? Are they going to suddenly stop supplying, stop updating? And the Canadians and Portuguese have come out and said that, in respect of the F-35s. And some European and American officials have been forced to address fears about an alleged kill switch on the F-35. There's this talk that the US could press a button and the jets would cease to operate. This is something that governments who have the plane deny, this is something the US government denies, and it's something that Lockheed Martin certainly denies. But in some ways, it's almost irrelevant, because the US could still make life very uncomfortable for the operators of their jets by not supplying spare parts, expertise and updates in terms of software. So it would still be problematic for any country if they fell out of the US, whether there's a kill switch or not. In March, Canada said it would review its planned acquisition of 88 F-35s, due to changing geopolitics and a need to secure more defence production at home. And in some European countries, like Denmark, questions are being asked about the over-reliance on the F-35. So what are the alternatives? Europe produces three types of jet fighters. The Eurofighter is built by a coalition of companies from the UK and the EU. France builds the Rafale, and Sweden produces the Gripen. While all these jets have been sold around the world, the F-35 is considered a generation ahead of them, thanks to its stealth technology and more advanced sensors. The European fighters, of course, aren't ancient old rust buckets. These are very capable aircraft, and they're all combat tested. You know, the British and the French have been using their Rafales and Eurofighters in combat situations for a long time. So they're very good. But what they don't have is the radar evading technology that the F-35 has. Since its launch in 2015, the F-35 has far outpaced its European rivals in terms of sales and pre-orders. European countries that still make jets, and they will obviously buy their own jets, but also in the Middle East, European jets tend to be quite popular. And that's often because the US won't let them buy their top-of-the-range fighter jets. And that's for a number of reasons, but one of them is that they want Israel to maintain a technological edge over its neighbours, basically. While the F-35 remains one of the most popular jet fighters, experts believe its manufacturer does have problems to solve, including the prospect of a lower demand from the US itself, where the programme has come under fire for its skyrocketing costs. The Department of Defence has more than 600 jets, and plans to increase that number to about 2,500 aircraft by the mid-2040s. The spending on sustaining this massive fleet will make up nearly 80% of the projected $2 trillion cost of the programme. This challenge has been exacerbated by Boeing's development of the next generation of F-47 jet fighter. When you have the F-47 coming in, there would be a risk for Lockheed Martin that this is going to cannibalise their market. If the US orders F-47s, it will be at the cost of F-35s. I mean, it's a different aircraft, meant for a different purpose, but still. Questions have also been raised within the Trump administration about the F-35's prospects in the face of unmanned aircraft. To tackle these concerns, Lockheed Martin is pushing forward with a combat drone system in which F-35s operate alongside unmanned craft. And there are European companies also catching up with their next generation jets. You have the Tempest, which is a jet that's been developed by the British, the Italians and the Germanese. All three countries are big buyers of US jets. And then further down the line, you have something called the FCAS, which is the French, the Germans and the Spanish, and potentially more partners within that. And so all of these jets will sap demand for US aircraft. The British, for instance, never bought the F-16 because they bought the Eurofighter. Development of a new jet fighter takes decades. But for the F-35, the arrival of the latest generation aircraft means cutthroat competition is not that far away. The Tempest is supposed to come out in the next 10 years. It's less time than you'd think. Because people buy them over decades, it's going to definitely sap demand from at least those countries, the countries that make it. But it will also be a competitor out in the market because it will have all the things the F-35 has.