China Policy Expert: Communication Is Core for Movements Against Authoritarian Regimes

Iran's internet blackout has entered its 11th day, deepening isolation for millions and raising concerns about morale inside of the country. Nathan Pekarcik, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defensive Democracies, joins us now. Nate Pekarcik, thanks so much for joining. Thanks for having me, Steve. Of course, so, Nate, the Iranian regime shutting down the internet for the entire country back on January 8th. Let's talk about why communications are so critical, especially for grassroots movements standing up against authoritarian regimes, and might this make or break the protesters' actual success? Yeah, the authoritarian playbook depends on separating communications, on keeping groups from being able to coordinate. So communication's necessary for coordinating, it's necessary for sharing tactics, it's necessary for updating, it's necessary for moving funds to be able to back activities. So communications are core, and I think it's part of the authoritarian playbook to be cutting those. What about, Nate, just the concept of morale and not feeling like you're siloed in a box? Yeah, absolutely. Individuals who are going up against authoritarian regimes need to be able to boost their own morale, need to be able to celebrate their own successes when they're able to have them, and that's a way that you sustain movements and catalyze actions. It's being able to share successes, being able to build on those, and be able to refine tactics and responses against a centralized authoritarian actor. Nate, there's reports suggesting Iran is using technology from China to jam the signal from Starlink, Elon's Starlink being offered over Iran. How likely do you think this is? Highly likely. So the Chinese Communist Party has for a long time been supportive of the regime in Iran. They've also had their own concerns about the risks that Starlink pose to the mainland and to Taiwan. So they've been developing technology to be able to jam, circumvent, being able to disrupt the connectivity that Starlink provides. So I would say that it's highly likely, and we know that Chinese vendors demonstrate the capability to jam, and that it's part of China's concern vis-a-vis Taiwan. So it would be a pretty low bar for them to want to be able to support the Iranian regime in this way. That's an interesting point. You know, you've heard people speculate that if Starlink were ever to make its way over mainland China, it wouldn't take long for the regime there to collapse. So you're saying they're already a step ahead developing technology for just that occasion. There's also the firewall, which enables the CCP to control all of the information that Chinese people see online. We often think of this as sort of, you know, in times of protest, but it's always actively blocking and preventing certain ideas. So how important is it for the free flow of information in any context? Yeah, absolutely. I think China proves this out, that if they're able to control information, they can control the flow of people, they can control the mindset of the individuals within their population. So that, in some way, serves as a primary defense of that authoritarian regime's approach to controlling its population. They're pre-censoring. They don't need to be concerned about coordinating sort of separatists or revolutionary forces, because they're weeding that out by controlling information from the get-go. And I think that's baked into how the Chinese Communist Party is controlling information in China. And I think it's baked into when the Chinese Communist Party exports the technologies that it uses to control networks, to censor and shift information, and then also to combat the systems that we have to extend free flow of information. So that includes how they look to jam and circumvent systems like Starlink. So what can be done about this? Are there any alternative solutions that are out there in the event that information needs to get into the Chinese people? So I think part of it is staying a step ahead in this cat and mouse. So propelling new systems, having redundancy in those systems, and being prepared for the eventuality that the CCP is going to invest in technologies to break those down. I think at the same time, it's sort of incumbent to also relearn basic lessons about sharing information in non-digital ways. I think we should be preparing to have information flows and content being generated on the periphery of China from all sorts of different communities and populations, and being prepared to even execute very, very relatively dumb campaigns of dropping in leaflets and connecting people in non-digital ways. Now on the topic of digital security and China, the Senate Committee on Aging is saying that in 2024, elderly or older Americans lost more than $4.8 billion to fraud, much of that coming out of China. Chair of that committee, Senator Rick Scott, had this to say. These are not small-time criminals. These are highly organized transnational enterprises, many of them directed or enabled by the Chinese Communist Party. We know how these groups work. They rely on Chinese platforms, Chinese payment channels, and scam compounds in Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and elsewhere. Compounds built and staffed by trafficked workers forced to carry out scams targeting our friends, Americans. Nate, the Senator goes on to say that Beijing has allowed this criminal infrastructure to grow and thrive as a way of undermining the United States. How are these criminals operating and how can we know that the CCP is using this as a strategic weapon against us? So, the first is that we've asked them to be more cooperative and to help in slowing the flow and growth of these scams. So, we know that the Chinese Communist Party has been asked and we know that they and the banking system, the report to them, have not been entirely cooperative in shutting down these scamming operations. So, they've been asked. They do have the capacity to shut down these scams. And yet, if you know a grandfather, a grandparent, you have an elderly parent, a neighbor, there's probably not a person in the United States that isn't familiar with these elder scams and not a cell phone that doesn't get bombarded constantly with scam and treaties. So, we see there's a proliferation of these tactics. We know that they are tied to Chinese actors in China as well as those that are operating from third-party countries, including throughout Southeast Asia, as the Senator noted. And we know that the Chinese Communist Party is very happy to see those billions of dollars flowing into Chinese banks and flowing out of the pockets of elderly Americans. Nate Pekarcik, really appreciate your insights. Thank you.