Is China’s Taiwan Drill a Political Performance or a War Plan?

Hi everyone, welcome to Lays Talk. It is our last program of 2025. Next time I'll see you, it will be 2026. Okay. I hope everyone's holiday season is good so far. Yes. All right. Okay. Good. Um, well, some of you sent me emails asking me about what's going on in the Taiwan Strait. So, I think it's just um it's perfect timing to talk about what's happening there. So, we're about to enter the new year, right? The CCP suddenly launched a military drill around Taiwan and this has caused international concerns. Uh it started on the 29th by the Eastern Theater Command uh and it continued into today, the the 30th. And um now before we jump to any conclusions, let's be clear. CCP drills around Taiwan are not new. Ever since former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in, I believe August 2022, um this should be the PLA's seventh largest scale military drill targeting Taiwan. So frankly, Taiwan and the international community and people like myself have become numb to these exercises. But this one feels different. And it feels different because the CCP made several unprecedented moves. Moves that immediately raised alarm bells and led many to ask whether Beijing is preparing to move against Taiwan. So let's slow this down and look at the facts. Now, compared to previous drills, three glaring facts stood out. First, the drill was extremely sudden. From announcement to launch, there was only about half an hour. This kind of timing is highly provocative and deliberately so. Second, the five drill zones all included Taiwan's 12 nautical mile territorial waters and airspace. This is truly unprecedented. In fact, this is the closest um drills that have this this is the close it's the closest that CCP's drills have come to Taiwan's actual territory since 2022. Um and then there's the third which is that in the CCP's official announcement for the drill uh a new phrase appeared for the first time and it says this is a serious warning to external interference forces. So that expression or wording external interference is brand new. In past drills, Beijing always framed its exercises as a serious warning to Taiwan independent forces or no independence forces. But this time, the warning is directed outward. And that changes everything because once you see this shift in language, one conclusion becomes unavoidable. This drill is not really about Taiwan. It's aimed at the United States and Japan. Why do we say that? Because if you look closely at Taiwan's recent behavior or development, there hasn't been anything unusual at all. No high level foreign officials suddenly visiting Taiwan, no provocative statements from the Taiwanese government. Nothing happened. So that raises the real question. If Taiwan didn't trigger this, then what did? The answer lies elsewhere. First, Beijing is reacting to Japan, specifically to Japan's new prime minister who said um very clearly that a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency. That statement, you know, in Beijing's eyes crossed its line. Second, uh this drill is also a response to President Trump's recent um recently approved unprecedented arms sale to Taiwan worth over 11 billion dollars. To be honest, that deal really hit a nerve in Beijing, especially because it includes several highly lethal weapon systems. So taken together, this drill looks less like a routine exercise and more like a strategic stress test uh meant to test Trump's bottom line and to test how determined the US uh really is if things escalate. So how do the United States, Taiwan, and Japan respond? Let's start with the United States. American media reported that in Okinawa, Japan, there's a secretive US force of about 9,000 troops. The unit was originally supposed to withdraw to Guam, but the decision was uh recently made to keep them stationed in Okinawa, and this is one of the most elite units in the US military. At the same time, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense confirmed that foreign aircraft were operating nearby, though it refused to disclose which country they belong to or what their mission was. However, multiple Taiwanese media outlets reported that a US Navy Triton reconnaissance drone flew from Okinawa and appeared near Taiwan. And then on December 29th, the official US Navy X account released a short but strikingly defiant video stating that the US Navy is ready to fight. Now, Japan's response is equally telling. In the past, during PLA's drills aimed at Taiwan, Japan usually stayed silent, but this time was different. Japanese government and major media outlets openly stated that the CCP drills were meant to deter the US and Japan or uh meant to target US and Japan. And so this kind of public clarity from Tokyo is very rare and deeply significant. So now at this point you might think the story ends here that this drill was simply about getting even with Japan and the US. But that's only part of the picture and a very small part of the picture. Because when you look closer, this drill also reveals something happening inside China itself. On December 29th, the first day of the drill, news of the PLA's encirclement of Taiwan topped Way's trending list, dominating headlines across China. But strangely, um, afternoon the atmosphere shifted abruptly. state media outlets, state media outlets. I say state media media outlets um like global times quietly replaced drill related headlines with other stories um and all drilled related topics vanished from wayable's trending list. Uh I mean it still exists, it's just not the top trending list. So yeah, they vanished in a short period of time. So from total domination to complete disappearance, that kind of reversal doesn't happen by accident. It sparked speculation that two competing lines inside the CCP are clashing over Taiwan policy. And the sudden disappearance of those topics seems to confirm rumors of internal power struggles over the PLA, over Taiwan, over relations with the West, and over war strategy. So what makes this even more unusual is what happened before the drill. So from December 26 to 29th, the four days leading up to the exercise, state media published four consecutive articles emphasizing dialogue, cooperation, mutual benefits, and reducing conflict. They even quoted Xiinping twice using the phrase make America great again saying that MAGA or MAGA does not contradict China's development. Yeah, Xiinping actually said that uh last time when he met Trump um he actually did made that statement that MAGA the MAGA movement does not contradict China's development. So this time, state media outlets quoted him twice. Now, these editorials send a very clear signal. The CCP wanted stable US China relations and wanted to show Washington that it had no intention of challenging the US. And then almost immediately after those editorials concluded, the military drill began. It made headlines and then it was quietly um taken off the trending list. So what does that tell us? It tells it tells us that the CCP's internal fighting has grown so intense that it is now spilling over into US China relations, Taiwan policy and even military signaling. It also tell us something uh very important that Xiinping is no longer the uncontested supreme voice dictating those policies the way he once did. Now despite the drill launching just 30 minutes after its announcement, I believe it was it was pre-planned. Hold on one second. Excuse me. And the timing offers a clue. Now, if you really think about it, this drill was launched just a few days after, excuse me, I ate peanuts as dinner and I think it's it's too dry. It it dried up my throat. Not a good idea. No peanuts um before live streams next time. Okay. So, yeah, the drill was launched just a few days before uh actually a few days after the Eastern Theater Commander was uh formally promoted. Remember last week, U Generaling was promoted to full general in a in a ceremony that we spoke about this this past Saturday. Um, and so the POE desperately needs a dramatic move to cover up a brutal internal political cleansing particularly um for the Eastern theater command because it is the one charged with Taiwan operation. Now, General Yang Jubin and his political commasar uh Jangi Chun, that's his name, they were sent to lead the Eastern Theodorean Command in September as acting leaders shortly before the previous um commander actually previous two commanders were officially sacked. They were uh Ling Xangyang. Ling Xang was the one right before General Yang and then before Ling Xyang was Hiong. So since taking over, General Yang's number one priority has been political house cleaning, specifically removing the influence of Hongyang. In other words, they were sent to discipline the Eastern Theater Command, not to build an external war fighting system. Put simply, General Young's job is to stabilize morale while carrying out internal political cleansing. So even if the CCP truly placed um using force against Taiwan on the agenda, it would still have to finish purging uh the Eastern Theater Command first. Just completing that process could take another six months to a year. So, this drill functions as a show of force. Um, it's designed to mask a crumbling PLA in my opinion. Now, that bring us to the next question. So, who ordered this drill? Um, well, the most likely answer is Xiinping himself. While the selfdestructive purge continues and the rumors that Jango now controls the military, Shinjin Pining does not want the outside world to believe he's losing control. He uses Taiwan as a distraction to cover up the fact that he no longer controls the military and that a major internal purge is eating away at the PLA. Now, let's be honest. Xiinping is still Xiinping. Making a defiant move against Japan and the United States fits his wolf warrior instinct. But he also knows something very important. The military is not fully loyal to him at the moment. So, he must be very careful not to let things spiral into real war because the military could turn against him. At this point, some of you may be wondering, "Didn't you say that Xiinping no longer controls the military? Isn't Jia his rival inside the PLA who actually is in control? So, why wouldn't General John stop this craziness?" Well, the answer is strategy. Jangua benefits from war preparation. It brings more resources and more leverage to him. And any provocation puts pressure on Xiinping, not General Jang, because she is still the chairman of the CMC. In other words, Janga doesn't mind doing the dirty work because Xiinping will shoulder the blame and the international backlash. There's even another theory that explains this. It suggests that Jang Yua is not opposed to war at all because war could remove Xiinping for him. Now, before we go any further, we need to address one warning that came directly from Washington. On December 28th, Bill Girtz, a senior national security reporter for the Washington Times, posted on X that if China were to launch a military attack on Taiwan, um a drone de decapitation strike similar to the one used against top Iranian military leader Solmani could be repeated in Beijing. So he wrote that the targets would include every member of the CCP's poly bureau standing committee. That's the seven the seven uh the seven man some Chinese joke the seven dwarves. Uh yeah the seven me the seven person poly bureau standing committee including Xiinping himself. Now, GES also referenced uh provisions in the US fiscal year uh 2020 National Defense Authorization Act, including a drone warfare program. So, that point alone is worth paying very close attention to. Now, here's an important detail that often gets overlooked which matters very much here. John is not a member of the poly bureau standing committee. He's only a poly bureau member. So if a war were to break out uh if the above scenario described described by Bill Girtz happens right John could theoretically use American military pressure to eliminate his political rival while Xiinping bears the responsibility and the consequences of war. He doesn't he doesn't have to. I mean doesn't have to. So in Chinese political language there's a expression called borrowing someone else's knife to kill. Now whether this theory actually holds true or not uh in in CCP's politics I can't say for certain. But what I can say is this. I've heard this line of thinking more than more than once from different people independently and regardless of whether the theory is true, it highlights something very important about the current situation. Even though Xiinping and Janua appear to be temporarily aligned in allowing this military drill to happen, their goals are not the same. Xiinping's provocation is purely performative. It's meant to remind people that he still exists, that he still matters politically and in military affairs. He he wants people to believe a war is imminent uh so as to stress his existence, but in reality he does not want a real war because he cannot afford to because he doesn't really fully control the military. Taya, on the other hand, also doesn't want war. But he has no problem letting Xiinping play the straw man. He doesn't care one way or the other. As long as she remains chairman of the Central Military Commission, any escalation, any fallout, any international backlash will land squarely on she, not him. So from Jung's perspective, he doesn't mind provocation as long as it doesn't spiral out of control. Um, so some people describe this situation as a kind of balance of terror inside the Chinese system. It's subtle, unstable, and deeply dangerous. Now, having said all that, I want to be very clear about one thing. I do not believe the chance of war in the immediate future is zero. But I also don't believe it's high. The PLE's internal purging has been so brutal that if you watch my Saturday night's live stream, you will understand why I say the PLE's leadership has become an empty shell. Roughly twothirds of top generals are already out. This is not a military that's ready to fight a modern war. Um, instead it's a military that will periodically act aggressive, put on shows, and generate hype precisely because it lacks real cohesion and substance. That's why President Trump said yesterday that he's not worried about the situation in the Taiwan Strait. He commented that the PLA has been doing this kind of drills what for the past 20 years. Some people were disappointed in Trump's comments because, you know, they they felt like Trump should take it seriously. And frankly, I think his assessment is correct. What's fascinating is what happened next. China Youth Daily, which is a state-run outlet, translated President Trump's interview clip, that very clip where he said that he's not too concerned about what's happening. Uh he's not too concerned about the military drill, that they've been doing this for the past 20 years. That clip is got translated into Chinese and posted on Chinese social media. And the video, I mean, was posted by state a staterun outlet. The video received over a 100,000 reaction emojis, almost all of them sarcastic, laughing faces, clearly mocking the CCP. And some Chinese commented on social media saying that the Americans are laughing at the drills and and don't take it seriously. This, my friends, I think is the most painful and demeaning comment that Xiinping could ever expect from this drill. Um, now that reaction alone is extraordinary from I mean from the Chinese. Now, even though I believe the short-term risk of war is low, that does not mean we should relax. uh because there's something far more chilling coming out of China yesterday. Now, recently the US Pentagon released the 2025 China military power report. The report evaluates the CCP's global military posture from multiple angles. Um there's a Chinese dissident, Professor Yang Honging, whom I haven't mentioned in a while, but he is um well connected to CCP insiders in Beijing. He lives in Australia now. He commented that the report shows an extremely sober understanding of CCP's growing uh milit militarization and the serious threat it poses to freedom and democracy. However, he also pointed out something critical. The report underestimates China's nuclear threat. And according to Professor Yuen's contacts in Beijing, China's nuclear warhead or warhead count has already exceeded 1,000. In addition, China is believed to have stockpiled a significant number of hydrogen hydrogen bomb and neutron bomb warheads, both strategic nuclear weapons. Um Oh, he he didn't give the numbers. Yeah, he just said significant number of um but he said he said beyond strategic nuclear weapons, China's tactical nuclear weapons are estimated to number uh to be around 2,000. That's the number he gave. Um and even more important than numbers is the direction of China's nuclear development. Um, Beijing is no longer relying on surface mobility to hide and protect its nuclear forces. This is all from Professor Yuan uh from his contact in China. Instead, its core strategy is built around vast underground tunnel networks stretching thousands of kilometers used to move and conceal nuclear missiles. Um, this helps explain why we often see reports claiming China is building missile launch sites near the Mongolian border or around uh um Lu Luhoo. I don't know how you say that in English. I think it's called Lopner Lner. Yeah, Luhoo. Lapner Lake Lopner in northwest China. I mean, these are what the Chinese media would would report. But according to Professor Yen's sources, many of these sites may actually be decoys. They're part of a broader strategy of strategic mis misdirection. uh the CCP's real nuclear um system is underground. So for example, he said the tunnel running from Beijing's western hills to the Fu Mountains is described as a two-way eight lane underground tunnel. Another major tunnel runs from the central plains toward the Chining Mountains. also an eightlane underground system. Um, so China's primary nuclear missile launch platforms are believed to move and operate within these tunnel networks. By the way, I released a video yesterday about 2026 predictions in my looking glass channel. And in that program I mentioned a Thai prophet Mo Pra who I have I have um featured in my other in my earlier programs. Uh Mo Pra discussed in one of her recent interviews about underground weapon testing in a certain country. She didn't mention the name of the country but she did say the underground weapon testing of certain country will cause major tectonic shifts or or or geological shifts in in the coming year or maybe in the coming years. Um so check it out if you haven't. So Nicole, if you could copy the link of um the the prophecy video from yesterday in the in the comments, I'd appreciate it. Um all right. So let me come back to Professor Yuen. So according to his contacts, he said this, meaning the whole underground system is the most important and least understood trend in China's nuclear weapons development. And because of this UN concludes he said from a strategic perspective the US Department of Defense report is correct in identifying one core reality that the CCP has become a primary source of conflict and instability in the 21st century and that its global totalitarian expansion is backed by powerful militarist energy. But when it comes to specifically uh to nuclear weapons, the report he said seriously underestimates the true scale of China's capabilities. So I just want to mention that I saw that today and I think it's important uh to tell you about it. Now let's bring this back to the Taiwan drill. And so even though Beijing tried to hype this exercise as something massive and overwhelming, guess what? Taiwan's stock market didn't fall, it actually went up. And perhaps most embarrassing of all, men and Chinese netizens flooded the internet with jokes and ridicule aimed at the PLA and their government. Um the people say the the biggest battle right now over this drill is not physically in the Taiwan street is over the internet and the Chinese netizens are not on the PLA's side. Um so the the most hilarious story that I saw today is this. So some Chinese nitizens, not one, more than one, proposed a sarcastic deal to Beijing. They offered to take their entire families to Taiwan to personally persuade President William Lie to reunify with the mainland. They said if they fail they would they said they are willing to surrender themselves and their families and remain in Taiwan as lifelong hostages and people cheered. They wanted they wanted to to to uh to do that. Anyways, I thought that's really smart. Extremely smart. What can the CCP say? Right? I mean, everything sounds politically correct, but the but the underlying message is is very obvious. So, um, in the past, guess what? Taiwan military drills and unification rhetoric were the CCP's most effective tools for stirring up nationalist sentiment online. They worked in 2022 when Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. They worked again in 2023 and 2024, but judging by the comments people are leaving now, they don't work anymore. This time, people saw right through the the PLA's staged performance. Um, the hype failed. Um, and perhaps that is the most significant outcome of this drill. It it it it's in it's coming from inside China. It's not coming from Taiwan. It's not coming from the United States. It's not coming from um Japan, but it's coming from inside the mainland. So, in the end, the CCP's military jewel is exactly what it looks like, a theatrical performance, not a war exercise. even though Beijing wants us to panic and believe otherwise. And that is precisely why Trump's comments were so enjoyed by the mainland Chinese netizens uh because they didn't just dismiss the drill, they landed like a slap in the face to Beijing. So I think that is uh in my opinion the most fascinating development from this drill that mainstream media will not tell you. All right. Um that's all I have. How am I doing? Okay. All right. Let me see. It's very quiet here. Is that because the holiday? Well, all right. Let's see. Pink is your color. Yeah, I People commented. I I washed this and didn't wear this for a while. I look good in pink. I look good in white. I also look good in black. That's what people have been telling me. So, white, pink, and black. Although I don't like to wear black. So, pink and and white. Yeah. All right. Um All right. Pink. Pink it is. All right. How did I do? Okay. Uh, peanuts. Two. I I I said I ate peanuts. I chew some pieces of peanuts before this live stream. It got stuck in my throat. Okay. Uh, that's it. Comments. All right. Questions. All right. That's that seems to be all. Uh, someone said, "Yeah, pink." Pink. Oh, here's a Yeah. Okay. Nicole just copied the prophecy video. I think I did a very thorough job doing research on all prophecies related to geopolitical development for 2026. I went up and down, left and right. It was exhaust. Oh, and actually uh Craig Hamilton Parker left me a comment. He obviously watched my video and said that it's an interesting overview of some of his predictions. He left me a comment and I thanked him for noticing my video. So yeah, people do notice. Okay. Um All right. Lay Christmas gift guide. It's It's I should call it holiday gift guy cuz Christmas is over. Someone said lady gets best dressed on YouTube. Uh, okay. Well, I feel I'm I'm flattered. Thank you, Kevin Stan Stanki. I don't know how to say your last name. What's happening with the CCP in South Korea? It's President Lie Jong recently has made some moves that seems to be he's staring away from his pro-CP stance, right? He Yeah. But then he allowed North Korean media outlets to into South Korea. I thought that's a bad move. Um but but Lee German has made some interesting moves against the CCP recently. I think I mean he has to otherwise he would be stupid. I mean who wants who wants to be on the side of the CCP nowadays in geopolitics, right? Um Oh, and then the the Iranian have you guys seen the the protest in Iran? I think that's very inspirational for the Chinese. Yeah. All right. Um, thank you though. Thank you, Norbert Clots. I believe the multi-billion dollar drill with Taiwan is to fool us and distract us from the accident in Australia. It is like the Epstein files. What do you think? From the accident in Australia? Which accident in Australia? You mean the PLA's intentional like using laser to harm Australian pilots? That was a while ago. Um I think the timing I think the timing I think that the PLA is desperate. Look, the fact that we're saying that twothirds of his top generals are gone and two of the past commanders of the Eastern Theater and Eastern Theater Command is the most important. It's the best funded, it's the best equipped um because it is charged with operations against Taiwan. So when Eastern Theodore Command is losing so many generals, it's not good for PLE's uh PR image or reputation. So they desperately need to do something. So as soon as the uh the commander is sworn in, they started this drill. I think it's a just a PR campaign. They needed this to save their reputation. That's what I think what it is. Right. So, and everyone went along. Jua went along. He's like, why am I against this? I don't lose anything. I Right. I don't have to deal with the consequences. Xiinping will. Someone said, "Lady, you look you look good in all colors." Oh, that's it's good to know. Yeah. Some of my favorite colors. I don't wear red. Um, I used to like red, but not anymore. So, I look good in pink, in blue, dark blue, dark green, like um gem colors. Um, I look good in in pink, in white, in black, in navy blue, in all the blues. So, greens, and also love orange. So, yeah, you're right. I I look good in colors in in general. Richard Hman. Well, thank you, Richard. I just found it very interesting. Oh, uh, pure pure love facts. A purple facts. Thank you. Good life. Well, thank you. I just found it very interesting that, you know, when Trump made a comment saying that, oh, this is not, you know, this is not nothing major. this is not something we should be worried. Um, they've been doing for 20 years. When I first heard it, my first reaction was, "Are you paying enough attention to what the CCP is up to?" I was a little concerned that he's brushing this, you know, off as if it's not important. I was a little disappointed. But as I look into it and I when I look at how the Chinese responded, I understood that's exactly his response is exactly what the CCP fears. And if we get all worked up by this drill, if we, you know, get get overreactive, then we fall into the CCP's trap. So So that's what I that that's what I found. and and and when I look back, I think, oh, yeah, his his assessment is is is right on. Brian Cobb, well, thank you. Excellent reporting as usual regards PRC nuclear capabilities. Disturbing. We're also watching your Laz Looking Glass channel. Well, thank you. Yes, I'm I'm working. Oh, this Thursday we're on a regular program. I made two prophecy videos this week. The one that we released yesterday is about geopolitics. The one coming out on Thursday is about natural disasters. Because there's just so so many predictions, it's hard to mix mix them. So I made them into two separate programs. Um so yeah, stay tuned. Thursday, second one is coming out. Um, someone said, "Everything the past two days in Taipei totally normal. Most people are too busy making money to worry about anything fake drills, but the KMT, TPP, slowing down progress." Yeah. The K the KMT elected a dreadful woman as its president. Um, that woman accused President Lie for causing the problem. You know, it's it's I think it's outrageous that she does not accuse the CCP for doing this drill, but accusing your political opponent in a democra accusing your democratically elected president. I mean, to me, that's outrageous, right? How could you not accuse the CCP but your your u your president? So to me that's I think I think the the KMT's political future may be sealed by the by the election of that woman because she doesn't strike me as someone who's very intelligent. Anyways, that's just my opinion. I hope I'm wrong. I often hope that I'm wrong. Um maybe let's talk about this. You know, I I I realized recently there's uh a terrible division in American conservative, right? Uh conservative movements and uh people are against each other. And I really thought about what's causing that. And I realized there's a problem that there's epidemic going around. It's difficult for people to admit their mistakes. People all work so hard to prove their point. You know, it's almost like everything you do is to validate yourself and that defeats the purpose of seeking truth. Because when you seek truth, you should not be preoccupied with what truth should look like. Because in the end, people are not defending truth. They're defending themselves to the point that they're attacking other people. So I think that the smartest people or the wisest people are the ones who are not afraid to admit their mistake. Um, so here I want to tell you I have no problem for someone to tell me that my assessment of China's population is wrong. I would feel totally okay and actually happy if we find out that one day China has more people living than I had predicted because I would feel better. That means at least not so many babies were killed, you know, not so many people have died in in in in COVID. So, I'll be more than happy to admit my mistake because it's good. It means more people are living. So, I think it's painful to watch how people bitterly argue with each other even when they know they're wrong, but they're just defending themselves. pride. I think pride is a is a epidemic. Don't you think so? Anyways, that's just my my comment. So, um I yeah, I could be totally wrong in many of the things I said. I do not presume that I'm right. Uh because if you want to pursue truth, you have to be open-minded about and things can evolve. Things can evolve too. I mean Xiinping could lose control one day and he may regain power the next day. So uh if you truly want to seek truth, you cannot be attached to yourself or you cannot be attached to your opinions about things because once you do once you're attached to your own opinions once you try to validate yourselves then you're not really pursuing truth. you're just pursuing your your own reputation. So I want to make that very clear and remind me if I fall into that trap too as I may do sometimes trying to defend. Anyways, okay. That's Lay's real talk for the day. Okay. Seek the truth. China announced one trillion trade numbers. I've seen where a large portion of this is with trading partners where China loans money to buyers. The money just circles back. Um I did a program on that. I think a lot of the the trade the so quote unquote exports are not real exports. They're money laundering schemes. You know the one secret that a lot of Chinese keep to um to send money overseas is through these trading. So the they are not they're fictitious trade setup only to transfer money from inside China to overseas. So that's why China's exports seem so high. I think a significant portion of that is just um capital flight. They're not real exports. Um and and the regime knows that they're not correcting the number because it helps with their political narratives. Yeah. All right. Good. All right. So, let's see. All right, it's getting a little late. How about we end it here? I'll be back on New Year's Day. I have a treat for you on New Year's Day. I'm working on it. I'll let you know on January 1st on Thursday. So, um I'll see you next year in 2026. All right. Okay. Bye.