Edwardsson: Trumps första år saknar motstycke i tempo

Donald Trump delivered a Christmas speech from the White House highlighting what has happened throughout the year First of all his successes What do you think is the most important part of this speech It's more about what it reflects This has been a remarkably fast-paced year at least in terms of tempo I think we have to go back to 1932 and Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal rush to get anywhere near it I wonder if the FDA also had this much pressure in the first year You've practically had a stiff neck from everything that's happened Trump himself is certainly not unfamiliar with showcasing all the good he has done Above all the migration is a big victory over his voters Migration has decreased and is practically nonexistent for illegal migration Trump says drug smuggling by boat has dropped 94% How important is this for Trump and his voters It is extremely important especially regarding illegal immigration which was one of his main points Together with getting growth and the economy started It has been a bit more turbulent there so in that sense this success is even more important The so-called mid-term election will take place next year Currently the numbers do not look very good for the Republicans It's almost eleven months left What did Olof Palme say who said that a week in politics is an eternity It will depend largely on the economy how things look in six months Many members believe that Trump is overestimating the optimism about the economy Trump himself says that he inherited a country where inflation was the worst in 48 years He also points out that wages have increased during his time Foreign investments with units in 18 trillion dollars He also points out lower fuel prices and lower food prices What do Americans think about the American economy today and how true is what Trump is saying Everything politicians say should be taken with a large pinch of salt But the numbers you mentioned here are true Inflation is under control New figures came out as late as today It's not due to the government shutdown this time Inflation was significantly lower than what experts had predicted It is still a bit high 2 something According to experts it should be around 2 In comparison to the terrifying scenarios that many people produced- The introduction of tariffs would lead to hyperinflation more or less None of that has happened It connects with two other things you mentioned The price of food and the price of gasoline have started to go down I'm running on empty It's the lowest in years Food prices are also on the way down but a bit more slowly He promised a lot during the election campaign Now he has been in office for almost a year It hasn't moved fast enough one could say There was no significant boost in the economy after he took over the first time The situations were so different When he took over in 2017 we had already had eight years of Obama who had barely made any progress The basic economy was healthy but people were holding back on consumption and investments The Obama administration always had the threat of tax cuts hanging over it When Trump's first victory brought relief it sparked a real surge Growth increased significantly The best labor market in decades Now it was very different We had only four years with Biden All four years were also tough but depended on the pandemic It was almost as if a similar boom was expected All these forecasts about what the tariffs would lead to have continued to hold back consumption and investments throughout the year Since the numbers are coming in now and inflation has been absent - and unemployment remains fairly good - Light high with American historical measurements but it goes up some tenth of a percent month by month If nothing else negative happens at the beginning of next year I think the economy will look much better in a year What it's doing now But it's future-oriented so we'll have to see I spoke about tax cuts and in some cases completely eliminated taxes on tips in restaurants He says an American family will get an additional 11 000 to 20 000 dollars per year How much is needed for people to be satisfied with the economy Eleven thousand dollars per year is over 100 000 Swedish kronor That would definitely be enough We'll see how much of this gets through The first half of the year is interesting from a political perspective If Americans enter the summer and feel the economy is on the right track and jobs increase Then the Republicans' chances of retaining their majorities in Congress increase Would it still look the same as it does now then it would be much more in a knife fight Americans are restless in every way including politically If one promises as much as Trump did - Last year you were allowed to not be strict Momentum must be that people feel this works the tariffs work the tax cuts work Then it will play into Trump's hands Otherwise it will be much Especially in the house where the majority is so thin I think there are five mandates right now It basically requires nothing to turn around The numbers up to five for the Democrats I think the Republicans are safe in the Senate One can lose up to three by losing the majority with the vice president We'll see This is going to be a very exciting year It's clearly set up for political drama in 2026 Trump continues during the campaign to promise a lot of economic cleanliness 100 000 kronor per family tax breaks cheaper medicines He continues along this line How realistic is this The tax reductions have already been approved They will be implemented at the beginning of next year When it comes to job growth and how the inflation numbers look It's always very much outside the control of politicians I acted on impulse It simply remains to be seen as they said The Americans are restless and they now expect that- In practice they have regained the economy they had two or three years before Covid destroyed everything It still lives in the people's memory But to continue blaming Biden just as Trump did - I have a feeling about that It's still working but it won't work anymore in a year This mid-year election is coming up fairly soon The Republicans as you said have had a narrow majority What is the situation today and how important is this election for Trump Measurement situation that is how the measurements look They look cozy not great but they look cozy for the Democrats At least the winners and representatives As said the senate will become a much steeper climb It's especially now that the Democrats seem to be nominating one of these true left-wing populists for a Senate seat from Texas Texas is a state that is politically very right-leaning They would have to almost have an earthquake to make the Republicans lose the Senate as well The battle will be fought in the house And here we are as I said the economy is by far the most important But even during the year here now certain states including Texas have redrawn the districts for the house members In a way that benefits the Republicans there But on the other hand now the Democrats in particularly California- Answered with the same coin We'll see how much that's worth As it looks right now it's probably a spring that is- They might have some overgrown areas and carousels possibly for it will benefit the Republicans with a number of mandates The rest is to be seen Trump has not managed to get through as many of these rollbacks as he wanted in so many states That's also something he's involved in and it's another big issue that we must start including in the designation now Even though Trump is extremely active and will remain active until the last day in the White House on January 20 2029 So he's still on He's suffering from this lame duck scenario When a president cannot run for re-election - people around him begin to become They start looking to the future Who will succeed him What questions will become relevant after he is gone Presidents in their second term always lose some more or less control over their party We have already started seeing that this year Even ordinary people are beginning to express He doesn't go far enough or he goes too far Republicans are in an uncomfortable position now as the majority party is always under a sitting president It usually benefits the opposition There are so many old rules that no longer apply- going back five ten years Excuse me if I sound like an old scratchy record - but we'll have to wait and see Many talk about JD Vance as Trump's successor - what is that in the Republicans today Nothing beyond the usual If anything he has After all his situation is also unique He is the second president in the entire history of the United States to have a second term He lost but came back Much of what he did in the first term he has been forced to do again - for Biden abolished it - He tried to change his decision On top of that he also has a somewhat even broader and deeper agenda and he had the first years This is a completely unique situation We can simply No one can without blinking- Say how this is going to play out This hasn't happened since the 1880s Back then the situation was completely different It simply remains to see What hasn't happened since the 1880s As a president who lost the election - then came back for another term - four years later Republicans also have a very favorable situation right now They have the House of Representatives and they have the Senate It has made Trump able to pass his Big Beautiful Bill among other things How important is the period until the election and will we see increased activity What do the Republicans want to do to get legislation passed And what are the consequences of that If the Republicans lose either the House of Representatives or the Senate or both They are doing their best to push through as much as they possibly can right now because they live under this democratic value To lose one or two of the congressional seats Then it would happen- well that's- I and with the fact that so much has already been printed - as has in fact already been done - and will probably make the coming year - then the last two years - will really become a long period - It tends to happen The president's party usually loses the midterms- because it becomes a form of protest voting- Regardless of how the economy looks and such Men If the Republicans lose their majority - then Trump would just have to go - Then he would be forced on the defensive in that sense - They will be able to veto Say that the Democrats win both chambers and can push through All charges must go through both Then he will have to bring out the wetsuit- And put in its veto against many things - which the Democrats will push through - from their side They lose just one chamber - then the Republican majority in the other will block it - Then formally speaking he does not need to submit his veto But it will of course result in much less being done So to speak So much has happened in the first year - and so much seems to be happening in the second So it's just From a political perspective a policy perspective - a smaller defeat in any case - Next year will not be so important for the big historical election campaign which will be in 2028 If the Republicans in that case are able to win back the chamber or chambers they have lost Who will succeed - will it be another Marxist - or a Republican there are almost - No other Republicans remain now It will become the historical water division so to speak What would the voters say after four years now No this was probably an interesting experiment Before Trump these last 12 years have been a lost time politically As mentioned next year 2026 will be interesting but the real big one is the next 1932 or 1860 - when the American political landscape was fundamentally redrawn - It will not be possible before 2028 It is not entirely different from Gunnar Stömmers and the Tide Party's reasoning on criminal policy If there were to be a change of power here in Sweden after the upcoming elections But the opposition can also roll back very many of the legal reforms You previously said that - The president's foreign policy during his second term In Trump's speech he mentions these eight wars He has made peace in He points to Iran he points to Gaza How significant is this to American voters Not that it's huge There's an old truth here in the US I think I mentioned it in previous sections You can't win an election on a good foreign policy It is bad then That is if war suffering defeats and humiliations happen internationally For American troops or in the United States' reputation in general it contributes to many Vote for the opposition just to get a change I would say that - The big joker in foreign policy - and will have to be seen in the coming years - what is happening in Ukraine Trump manages to push through some form of peace or ceasefire agreement and it lasts longer than a day or a week Then I think it will create a lot of goodwill among the American public The American public has stood on the side of the Ukrainians since the beginning But at the same time there are also Very little support for continuing to support this and keep this war going for long It has already been going on for far too long - according to most Americans So I think it will end up being the last straw On Trump's foreign policy Plus seeing how now- next year will be the first full year- It will be fixed and work It has already earned a respectable amount of money but we'll see now This takes time This is a basic- political-economic reform- that was over a hundred years ago- Something similar has happened before Instead of federal income taxes Now this is partly going back So now we'll see- Such huge major changes take years to take hold and for people to get used to them and so on So far at least as I said inflation is under control There has been no economic crisis It's been nice so far at least But now we'll see if- a new year and new ideas and new approaches- So to speak how this will lead forward There is considerable international concern about US trade policy Swedish growth has been sluggish Because of that says Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson Sweden is changing To mitigate uncertainty there is no foreign trade But you are talking about Ukraine Another threat that the US has - among other things is China's growing claims of power - and their long-term plans A large part of the reorganization of the American defense The US military presence in the region is aimed at countering a threat from China Is this something that is part of the strategy What is the American public's awareness How does one sit on such things The technical that is new weapons systems new priorities American troops are to be stationed They don't really know much about it One thing excuse me if I mention it- but what you have to remember about the USA- First and foremost and finally it is that the USA is not a small European nation- state It is a union that one must compare to the EU Something like that You can compare the Swedish political debate what is happening in Sweden and what is happening at the EU level The average Swede has a very good grasp of what is happening in Sweden and has definite opinions Should taxes be increased or decreased- or should we have private schools or not When it comes to the EU level it is much more- abstract It's so big and so far away Americans have the same view of Brussels as Swedes and other Europeans do It's far away and corrupt It costs far too much money It is only when it burns down- and this also applies to foreign policy When war threatens to break out interest shifts to Washington for a short period But as mentioned Just today - if you asked an American on the street - what do you think of China - Well it's a dictatorship - and they seem to be a threat Opinion polls are being conducted on this- and the majority think that China is a threat Before it becomes a tough situation we can't load too much into that Afternoon moods - as people listen with a stir - when they are cooking meals - and is listening to the evening news at the same time It doesn't sound good But they don't get into the details- Like a Swede who gets into the details - of things that happen in the EU Except when something really big happens It is very hard to see We have decided on such things They see but they do not analyze I dare to say that You say that a peaceful Ukraine could create a lot of goodwill for Trump ahead of the upcoming election How much does the conflict with Venezuela affect What about the valet and the opinion It's a harder nut to crack right now Americans hate war- Also dictatorships that export drugs to American youth There the parameters are partially two different directions People are very supportive of this- lowering the boats- and restoring order and control- About drug trafficking This huge influx- of the Libyan sea- with the largest fleet- I don't know anything more It's probably more like is it going to be war again now We want both to have the cake and eat it - in a way Like Sweden wants to have the cake and eat it - when it comes to NATO People have now accepted that it has gone well We definitely shouldn't do that There's no real logic or coherence in such questions unfortunately The conflict with Venezuela is about drugs being transported to the US which is the reason Critics say that the most dangerous fentanyl comes from Mexico and sees the conflict as something more symbolic How do you view that criticism And how does the American people view that criticism I think it should be viewed this way That's exactly what you said Most of the fentanyl comes in through Mexico It is both a producer and Mexico is also a transit country for fentanyl and other drugs that mostly come from Venezuela There is much evidence that the Venezuelan regime is actively collaborating with Mexican drug cartels and so on The Koreans are also involved there At the same time that's just the case The USA and Mexico are literally neighboring countries They have a long common border We are aware of the problem The wall and everything else He is more against Mexico than he is against Venezuela right now There are too big differences both economically ethnically and linguistically Cultural and historical ties between Mexico and the United States to make it possible Venezuela becomes a form of proxy for Mexico I am quite convinced that Trump's plan here It is impossible to get rid of the Maduro regime and install any form of more US-friendly government there Perhaps under this The Nobel Prize winner In this way- tighten- The flow of cocaine from Venezuela into Mexico which in turn means less cocaine but also sends a signal Both the Mexican government and the Mexican customs know what you're up to We don't think we'll be able to get away with this forever One cannot really act as aggressively towards Mexico as one can towards Venezuela But there are many other ways When Venezuela is off the map other forms of pressure will be applied to Mexico I am completely convinced of that Perhaps even higher tariffs - economic sanctions - In Mexico It's not nearly as bad today- as it was 10-20 years ago But it's on the verge of being- This is a dysfunctional state almost like a feuding country in many ways Large regions are governed in a haphazard manner This is not like when Sweden and Norway had a conflict When Sweden fought against Ivan the Terrible's Russia in the 1500s or something It is a conglomerate of war - what is it called in Swedish - Warlords warlords and such It is a very complex situation It will take a lot - Venezuela I think can become a fairly - good situation next year - Getting things in order - The medicine and in Mexico will become significantly longer and more necessary The U S national security strategy released at the end of November mentions the American continents He prioritizes it Trump has been very clear in his support- with Melee in Argentina And other parts of South America How important does Venezuela become from that perspective It's somehow the plug in the hole It was at least a relatively large and fairly rich country A well- functioning country until the current regime took over under Chavez As is often the case when communists take over there are many other problems But obviously one can get rid of the Maduro regime and have some form of democratic elections - and some candidate wins - who promises to fight - their drug cartels - On home soil Then it will be a huge victory for the USA To focus on Mexico and others Colombia under the current president has become a problem again He seems to be on his way out next year If I understand the election calendar and the opinion polls correctly Of course it's in the US backyard so to speak South America is controlled by gun -runners and left-wing extremists which causes problems for the USA Both political and military Men they are also economic All Latin American countries are more or less completely dependent on the US economy Maybe with a half exception in Brazil - because they are so big now - Or rich relatively accomplished Everything fits together Now we'll see as you hinted at- the right-wing candidate actually won- a landslide victory in Chile The Libertarians in Argentina won the mid-term election As I understand it Some are standing on the edge of shaking off this leftist populist Marxist culture Those who have branded and tormented e continent - for over a hundred years But as I said again - 2026 will be - a very interesting year You will receive the newspaper delivered to your mailbox - and unlimited web access - for just 49 kronor the first month