This Macro Expert Thinks Bitcoin Is Going Lower in 2026

Bitcoin has dumped back below $90,000 again to start the week, reigniting fears that this isn't just a correction, but the beginning of a full-blown bear market. And now, one of the most respected macro analysts in this space, Luke Roman, has turned bearish on Bitcoin. And he didn't just express concern. He sold the majority of his Bitcoin around $95,000, stating he believes it could go much lower into the first quarter of 2026. Today, we're going to pull apart his arguments and walk through why this may end up being one of the most expensive decisions of the cycle, and why Bitcoin has a long history of humbling those who try to be too clever. Welcome to No Second Best, the show where conviction meets reality, and reality points straight to Bitcoin. I'm your host Hurley, now let's get into it. Luke Roman has been openly bullish on Bitcoin for a long time. He's not a tourist, he's not a trend chaser, and he's not someone who just discovered Bitcoin last cycle. In fact, this is the first time, at least in my memory, that Luke has turned outright bearish and even gone as far as advocating for selling Bitcoin with the intention of buying back lower. That alone should get your attention. So I'm not going to prejudge him. I'm not going to strawman him. I'm going to let him speak uninterrupted. Here's Luke Roman explaining why he's bearish. is way over my head. It's way over my pay grade. I try to read it, and I feel like the dumbest person alive. And I am not in a position to sit here and have any debate with someone who's quantum. Is it a risk? Is it not? What I am in a position to discuss is I've been in markets 30 years, and I'm watching the way Bitcoin is not making a new high against gold. I'm watching what Tether's doing. I'm watching what these people I respect in the space are saying. And I'm saying markets are telling me that serious. I know, by the way, the OG whales most selling in a cycle ever. Oh, really? Yeah, maybe it's nothing. Maybe it's nothing. Now, intuitively, if I was worth 50, 100, 200, 300 million dollars, billion dollars in Bitcoin, it's probably mostly in Bitcoin. I've held it for 15 years, 10 years. I would probably be very tied in that way. And I wouldn't sell unless there was some sort of real. I would start to take some off the table. If I thought quantum was a risk, I wanted to at least hedge somewhat. And so when I see this whale selling, I can't help but think maybe there's something there. Given the price action I'm seeing when you're looking at gold versus Bitcoin, not breaking, setting a massive, a new high against gold for the first time in its life. When I see it breaking down on a momentum base, various momentum bases relative to the dollar, on long-term charts, I don't really look at the chart. For me, I just want to see the long-term technicals. And the long-term technicals were really breaking down about three, four weeks ago, six weeks ago. And so that's really where I just say, you know what, I fully concede I might be being too cute by half. And these technicals, when they broke each of the last three times as emphatically as they just broke about three weeks ago, four weeks ago, the median decline in Bitcoin was 65, 70% each time. And there have only been three triggers in 14 years, and there have been no false triggers. So for me, it's, you know what, especially given the size that it had grown to in my portfolio, it was a champagne problem, knock on wood, it got something right for change. But to me, it spoke to a need to right-size it and substantially reduce positions, because I just think it's going a lot lower. And I guess lastly, a tieback, why is it functioning? I've called it the last functioning smoke alarm for five, six, seven years. Look, it's telling us the first half of next year is going to be ugly, right? Let's make no mistakes. Bitcoin, if this Bitcoin sell-off is not just 100% tech and quantum computing related, and forget about tech, because tech is a liquidity too. If this isn't just a Bitcoin-specific quantum computing sell-off, and I don't think it is, then what Bitcoin's telling us is, so we go back to that BC and AD of 2026, yikes. There's a lot of, basically everything but gold and the dollar are likely to get waylaid until we get to year zero, is what Bitcoin's saying. And on what time horizon are you bearish Bitcoin? One month, three months, or is this a multi-year negative view you have? Probably a function of more price than time, but there's probably price and time. In other words, look, if I woke up and Bitcoin is $40,000, and a little bit of time has passed, and there's revulsion in any number of technical indices, one of the nice things about having the size following I do on X is it's a very useful indicator of sentiment. I can just throw some chum in the water, and the response I get is pretty informative. And then it's also going to be a revaluation of fundamentals of, okay, where's price, probably some time, and then, okay, is quantum getting closer, better, what have you, amongst, and again, I'm not smart enough to figure out whether it is or not. There's a quorum of people I'm watching that are, this is their lives. I'm going to trust what they're having to say. But that's, for me, really more it. For me, it's a, for at least the next several months, it's negative. Again, if it crashed tomorrow to a level where it's okay, and revulsion, I could revisit that. But it's, I don't think that's going to happen. I don't think it's going to happen that fast. Certainly not the way the last three cycles have gone. I've lived through each of those. 13, I own Bitcoin. 17, I own Bitcoin. 21, I own Bitcoin. And it was like, same kind of thing. It felt very similar. The reaction was very similar. I had a tickler on my calendar, literally in September. Hey, check Bitcoin, it's the fourth year. And I looked at it, it was like 120. I'm like, man, we're fine. And so I finally only went negative at 95,000. All right, before we get into Luke's other arguments, we need to deal with the most unsettling and effective piece of fear in the market right now, the quantum computing threat. And to Luke's credit, he's honest about it. He doesn't pretend to know the timeline or the probability, as almost nobody does, including me. But here's the grounding reality. Selling Bitcoin because you're afraid of quantum computers does not protect your fiat or any fiat investments from quantum computers. Every modern financial system relies on digital encryption. Banks, governments, payment rails, even nuclear command systems. The difference is that Bitcoin is an open, adaptable system. If quantum ever starts to become a threat, the Bitcoin community can upgrade the protocol to become quantum resistant before it becomes catastrophic. So quantum shouldn't be a Bitcoin-specific exit signal. It's a reminder that adaptable systems outlast brittle ones. And Bitcoin, because it's code, is adaptable. Now let's turn to what Luke might be right about. 2026 very well could be an ugly year for markets. His broader thesis is that Bitcoin is acting like a smoke alarm, warning that liquidity, tech, and risk assets may be headed into a much rougher environment ahead. That's definitely not crazy. But where this breaks down is what you do with that information. Because almost every reason Luke gives for selling Bitcoin here rests on patterns, signals, and narratives, not on how Bitcoin price actually forms. He leans heavily on long-term technical breakdowns, on moving averages, on historical triggers, on the assumption that the future must resemble the past. And this is often where very smart people get trapped. To see why, we need to strip this back to first principles and look at how prices actually form in the market. And I think Eric Yakes did a great job at explaining this on the recent episode of What Bitcoin Did. I think the best way to frame this is to take a step back and just say, how do prices work? And it's pretty simple. A price is where marginal supply meets marginal demand. And then there's all these different factors that come into play that determine what the marginal supply and marginal demand is. Now for Bitcoin, it's nice because marginal supply is fixed. So we don't even have to worry about that side. The supply issuance is fixed. So then marginal supply is really just based on how seller perception is coming into the market. Marginal demand is where a lot of people are speculating on things. But there's so many different variables that can impact how many new buyers are coming to this market and how many new sellers are coming to this market. And I think the reality is just that when people in Bitcoin cling to these models to try to produce some sort of certainty of where that's going in the future. And we have these four-year cycles. We have these power law models. Or we have the stock-to-flow model. And we try to come up with all these different correlations that could have existed in the past. And to basically say, here's how it might be working in the future. The reality to me is just that price is determined by these underlying fundamentals that make these outcomes happen. BlackRock announcing the ETF years ago, that was something that happened because of boots on the ground, people advocating for Bitcoin, companies building things that enable this all to happen, people talking to regulators. There's all these things happening in the background that make this one big announcement that totally changes the market and the way that people perceive the asset. So when I think about price, all I'm thinking about is, what are the fundamental things happening behind the scene? And how could that impact the price in the near term? And what we know is that when we look at the price of Bitcoin historically, there's only a few days, very small subset of days where you get the vast majority of the run-ups in price. And that comes from all of... It's like an iceberg that's under the waters. All these things that are accumulating and eventually the top comes out and you can see just the top. And that's when there's public knowledge of everything happening in the background. So that's how I'm thinking about all of this. I'm thinking about what are the fundamentals that are driving this? And that's something that makes me be very bullish on Bitcoin. This is the grounding moment. Bitcoin's marginal supply didn't suddenly change. There was no protocol failure, no systemic demand collapse, no existential break. What changed was seller perception at the margin. That's it. Moving averages breaking doesn't mean Bitcoin is broken. It means some people decided to sell and others stepped back temporarily. Put simply, Bitcoin is a market and price is where buyers and sellers meet, not where models demand certainty. Now let's dive deeper into Luke's bigger thesis that Bitcoin is flashing red because markets are headed lower in 2026. He might be right, but here's the problem. Selling Bitcoin to wait for the perfect macro bottom assumes the future will unfold on a predictable schedule forever. Thinking Bitcoin was going to consume the global market for money by following a neat predictable pattern is quite frankly ridiculous. This assumption alone misunderstands what Bitcoin is. I don't think novel forms of money monetize smoothly and predictably. Why should we expect them to? I don't think they would respect cycles or to wait for consensus. They move in bursts. They move on recognition. They move when people finally realize what they're looking at. This is where I want to reframe something that I first heard from Jordi Visser because it's critical to understanding this moment we're in. Going forward, there are really two dominant trades shaping the global economy. Currency debasement and labor force replacement through AI and robotics. And here's the secret most people miss. They're basically the same trade. AI compresses labor. That pressures governments as technological deflation accelerates. Governments respond the only way they can, by printing money. And Bitcoin absorbs the excess because an absolutely fixed supply is the ultimate hedge against infinite currency. Which means waiting patiently on the sidelines for 2026 means you're missing the point entirely. Because the next major catalyst won't wait. This is where Eric makes one of his most important observations. Luke Groman, who I have like a ton of respect for, I think he's amazing. But he, in his recent newsletter, was basically telling people to sell Bitcoin. And he, I'm pretty sure, I did read it but I can't exactly remember, but I'm pretty sure he mentioned the cycles. And then it becomes like a self-fulfilling prophecy. And if people are selling because they expect a four-year cycle, can they create a four-year cycle? But I would even go one step further of being like, did the cycles even ever really exist? Because I guess really have to go from like 2013 onwards. So there was the 2013 peak, 2017 peak, 2020 peak, or 2021 peak. They also line up with business models and liquidity flows. Do you think liquidity is the bigger driver here rather than the halving cycle? Yeah, yeah. Like liquidity in the market is like, you know, the most correlated aspect that we can look at over time. What I'm expecting is that there's going to be an environment in the not-too-distant future where liquidity is not on Bitcoin's side. And we're still getting a run-up in price. What would cause that? All these fundamental drivers that I'm kind of talking about in the background. Like I think that right now, around the world, there's a bunch of conversations being had in boardrooms. There's a bunch of conversations being had at federal agencies. Those conversations that are being had at, you know, summits amongst different, you know, institutions and different government organizations. Everybody's trying to come up with, what are we doing with Bitcoin? And just like how this happened with like institutions like BlackRock coming in, that's happening with a bunch of other people behind the scenes. So like Bitcoin is always and everywhere some major headline announcement away from this happening. And a massive run-up in price. And that's like the question I have in my mind is, you know, who's the next major organization that's going to make an announcement that they're supporting it, right? Like we had Czech Central Bank is, you know, buying Bitcoin. Like that's happening. And we'll have other governments that continue to come into this. And, you know, there could be a future where we have some major announcement of the usage under the BRICS nations. Or it just like actually comes up to the surface that there is some sort of usage happening by them. You know, Bitcoin is a reserve asset by governments is something that is like completely untapped right now. And there's so much money that sits behind all of this. If we just have small percentages of sovereign wealth around the globe start to flow into it, then that would drastically impact the marginal demand for it. This is why trying to time the market in Bitcoin is so dangerous. ETF approvals don't follow your macro calendar. Corporate treasury announcements don't wait for your moving averages. Sovereign wealth funds and nation state reserves don't care about your cycle models. And this is why trying to be too smart, trying to be too precise has cost countless people fortunes in Bitcoin over the years. Now, this is where I also want to pause and make this practical, because most people watching this are not hedge funds. You're not macro traders. You're not trying to nail perfect entries. And that's a good thing. At Swan Private, this is exactly how we help families and businesses approach Bitcoin. Not by timing tops and bottoms, not trading fear, but building a long-term strategy that survives volatility. Saving in Bitcoin. Buying regularly. Adding on big dips. And letting time do the heavy lifting. And now, Swan has taken that one step further with Swan Generations. Swan Generations is designed for people thinking beyond the next cycle, those focused on holding Bitcoin securely across decades and generations, with proper custody and inheritance planning built in. If Bitcoin is long-term family capital, not a trade, this matters. You can learn more about Swan Private and Swan Generations at swan.com slash nosecondbest. Because once you zoom out far enough, the noise fades. And that's really the dividing line in Bitcoin. On one side, you have people trying to time the tops and bottoms, trying to anticipate every macro turn, trying to just be a little bit smarter than the market. On the other side, you have people who've made a very different decision. They're not trading Bitcoin. They're not hedging Bitcoin. They're not waiting for the perfect re-entry. They're simply buying it and holding it because they know what it is. And no one represents that mindset more clearly than Michael Saylor. Oh, my God. Is it? But I couldn't be sure. So I'd probably still buy the Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a digital monopoly on capital growing 30% a year. You can buy it at one time's revenue. Any CEO, any investor given a chance to buy a monopoly growing 30% a year at one time's revenue would think that's the best deal they've ever had in their life. We've done that deal over and over again. I will do that deal over and over again. And I would tell everybody else it's the best deal in the world of your financial investor. Thank you, Michael. Thank you. Thank you very much. It's very difficult to argue that, honestly. I'm a Bitcoin maximalist. I know. I know you are. Thank you. Now you know why. Yeah. Thank you. Thank you for joining us. So this episode isn't just about Luke being wrong. It's about what Bitcoin teaches us over and over again. Trying to be too clever, trying to be too precise, trying to time something that stands to redefine money itself is missing the forest for the trees. The safer path isn't prediction. It's humility. Save in Bitcoin. Buy regularly. Add a little extra when fear is high. And give it time. Bitcoin has a way of humbling forecasters and rewarding patients. But what do you think? Do you agree with Luke's analysis? Will the market take a big hit in 2026 before the response in Bitcoin's launch? Or will Luke be buying back above $100k? Let me know in the comments below. Like this video if you stuck around to the end. And consider sharing it with a friend. And don't forget to subscribe to the Swan Bitcoin channel for more high signal videos every day. Thanks for watching and remember, there is no second best money.