Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle EXPLAINED

Bitcoin goes up and then it crashes. Then it goes up again, even higher, and then it crashes again, just like we've seen recently with Bitcoin hitting an all-time high in October 2025 and then crashing back down again to around $90,000, a drop of around 30%. This repeating pattern isn't random. It's what many investors call Bitcoin's 4-year cycle. Today we are breaking down exactly why Bitcoin tends to follow this rhythm. How something called the h havinging fits in and what typically happens in each phase of the cycle. So if you want to understand Bitcoin's long-term behavior without all the hype, stick around. So Bitcoin has historically moved in cycles that last roughly four years. Why four? Well, every four years something called the Bitcoin hing happens. That sounds like a bad horror movie. The Harving. But no, it's not a movie about chopping people in half. It's an event programmed into Bitcoin's code from day one. The Hing cuts the reward miners receive for creating new blocks of Bitcoin in half. Less reward means fewer new Bitcoins entering the market. And when new supply decreases, but demand stays the same or increases, prices tend to rise. This predictable supply shock is what many investors believe creates Bitcoin's repeating cycle. So, let's break the hovering down into simple terms. Bitcoin miners secure the network by solving mathematical problems. When they successfully solve these problems and create a block, they are rewarded with Bitcoin. In 2009, that reward was 50 Bitcoin. In 2012, it went down to 25 Bitcoin. In 2016, it went down to 12.5. In 2020, 6.25. And in the most recent hinging, April 2024, it dropped to just 3.125 Bitcoin. Every four years, the new supply of Bitcoin is cut in half until eventually all 21 million Bitcoin are mined. The hing event has historically triggered major bull markets about 6 to 18 months after it happens. But why the delay? Well, because it takes time for the reduced supply to be felt across the market. Now, let's break down the cycle into four easy to understand phases. Phase one, the accumulation phase. This happens after Bitcoin crashes from the previous bull run. The price is usually low. It's boring. It's moving sideways for months. Retail interest fades. Online searches drop. Everyone says Bitcoin is dead again. But long-term investors and institutions quietly accumulate during this time because this is typically when Bitcoin is the most undervalued relative to its historical trend. This phase continues until the next hing gets close. Phase two, the preharing runup. As the hing approaches, excitement starts building. Analysts publish predictions. Social media chatter increases. Investors remember what happened last time. Historically, Bitcoin begins climbing slowly in the months leading up to the hing. Not always a dramatic move, but enough to catch people's attention. This is where early cycle optimism starts returning. Then we have phase three, the post having bull market. This is the explosive part of the cycle. After the hinging reduces the new supply, demand occasionally outstrips the amount of new Bitcoin entering the market. The scarcity effect builds gradually and this is historically when Bitcoin hits its new all-time highs. For example, after the 2012 hinging, Bitcoin rallied in 2013 to around $1,000 a coin. After the 2016 hinging, Bitcoin surged in 2017 to nearly $20,000. After the 2020 h havinging, the 2021 bull run pushed Bitcoin above $60,000. And more recently, after the 2024 h havinging, in 2025, October to be precise, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of around $125,000. During this phase, media coverage explodes. Retail investors return, fear of missing out or FOMO kicks in, and new money floods the market. Altcoins, which are alternative cryptocurrencies, usually rally after Bitcoin begins moving because people use the money that they just made in Bitcoin to invest in altcoins. And Alex Becker makes about 50 videos about altcoin season. But then we have phase four, the bare market. Just when it feels like Bitcoin will go up forever, the cycle flips. At some point, FOMO turns to fear. It's not fear of missing out anymore. It's just fear. All right? Because you're already in. Traders take profits, leverage unwinds, media goes negative, interest crashes, and Bitcoin typically experiences a major correction. Sometimes 50, 60, or even 80% down from its peak. The bare market can last a year or more, and that brings us right back into phase one, accumulation. The cycle resets. Now, here is something important. Bitcoin's 4-year cycle is a pattern. It's not a law of physics. Some analysts think the cycle may weaken over time because of growing institutional involvement, Bitcoin ETFs, larger market capitalization, reduced impact of each h havinging and increased global liquidity. As Bitcoin matures, we may see smoother cycles. All right, less dramatic highs, less catastrophic lows because all that additional interest, corporate interest, ETFs is propping the price up. But for now, the h havinging is still one of the strongest forces and the most clear patterns we have in the shaping of Bitcoin's long-term behavior. So there you have it. Bitcoin's 4-year cycle in a nutshell. Accumulation, prehinging runup, post-hing bull market, and then the bare market. If you are wondering what phase of the cycle we are in now, well, think about it. Bitcoin's last hing took place in April 2024. Then we saw a massive runup to a new all-time high in October 2025. And now we've had about a 30% drop. Thus, it feels like we are in a cooling off phase. But like we said, the drop may not be as severe this time thanks to Bitcoin ETFs and institutions buying. So perhaps we're already coming out of the bull market and we're kind of stabilizing at this level going into an accumulation phase. Who knows? It's basically because those interest that corporate interest is keeping the price more stable. The days of 70% drops may be over. But don't quote me on that. I did say may, not definitely. But whatever the case, now is the time where you should be thinking about starting to accumulate more Bitcoin. Remember, buy low, sell high. All right? It's contrarian investing. You do the opposite of what all the stupid people are doing. You have to buy when the news is all doom and gloom and interest in Bitcoin has waned. It could still go lower than the current level, but it's impossible to perfectly time the bottom. So, you can dollar cost average in as Bitcoin goes down, hits the bottom, and then starts to come back up again, and you will get a good average price and be positioned well for the next cycle. The next h havinging is in 2028. So, if you accumulate now, around 2028 to 2029 is when you can expect to see the next major runup if Bitcoin is still following its 4-year cycle. And it might not be because remember past performance is not indicative of future results and Bitcoin is such a new asset that anything could happen. But guys, it's the best indicator we have. Now, if you need a brokerage account to invest in Bitcoin because now is the time that you should be thinking about accumulating or you just want to pick up some free Bitcoin rewards when you open a new account, check out Gemini in the links below. It's my favorite crypto exchange. It's run by the WLV brothers under the New York crypto license, which is the strictest license in the country. They also have a credit card where you can earn Bitcoin on your daily spending. I think it's 4% back in Bitcoin on gas purchases, which is really good. I use it all the time. So, I'll put links to both of those below. The Gemini brokerage gets you a $50 bonus when you sign up and train $100 worth of Bitcoin. And I think the bonus on the credit card is $200. If you get both of them, that's $250 in Bitcoin. Links are below. Thanks for watching, guys. We'll see you in the next video.