Emergency Liquidity Is Back

Today's number guys is $10 billion, as that's the amount that Michael Saylor's strategy is trading underneath its overall holdings of Bitcoin right now. And it has everybody questioning whether there's something wrong with the system and more importantly what happens next. Will it be forced to sell stock, raise more capital or something possibly even worse? Well in today's video we'll take a look at what that means for Bitcoin, what the Federal Reserve just did that may shock you about markets and whether there's things starting to break in the system. By the way it may have to do with this chart. Guys let's take a look at stocks, commodities and cryptos right now to have a look at everything that you need to know whether you're an investor or trader right now. See you soon. Well welcome back everybody to The Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atkinson and in today's video we'll be taking a look at the macro, the data and of course what Wall Street has been up to over the last 24 hours. To kick things off though we've got to discuss this micro strategy problem because of course the stock is actually being valued now underneath its own actual holdings. And while this is not unusual in the market for several funds it has been a shock to many people out there when they're thinking about where micro strategy was and where it is now. The big question now becomes whether this whole shift in narrative is going to get worse. Of course the discussion now is where are we going to get the dividend money from and more importantly how easy will it be to raise capital in the future. Will it force Saylor to sell stock, sell Bitcoin, sell all of these things and of course maybe start to really erode some of the confidence in that particular fund. Well to answer that question and to answer many others let's start off here with Japanese government bond yields because a lot of you are incredibly concerned about this and rightfully so. It generally ends only two ways. One is a currency crisis, the other is a debt crisis and the reason is pretty simple. We have runaway yields that are now at multi-decade highs or just breaking through those points. And it's kind of like a 30 year experiment gone wrong that's finally starting to show signs of concern. Now we first saw this back last year in July and August and of course we thought it was a buy the dip style situation. The reason was because we had a feeling that the central bank would instantly reverse policy if needed. Now I still tend to maintain that kind of concept but there are some interesting things starting to appear. Most notably the kind of movement here of Bitcoin and of course the Japanese Yen over the last couple of days. And this one here is from Holger over on X and basically it shows here that we have almost a lockstep movement in the Japanese Yen and Bitcoin price. Now this is obviously just as a percentage move but a lot of people are very interested in this because we haven't seen it really before. Now do I think it's just correlation for correlation reasons? I kind of do but some of you guys and obviously the argument out there has been that this is the real deal and this is what's causing all of the problems. In my opinion it's a mixture of liquidity stealing though. So before we get into that and we have a look at the liquidity levels of the last 24 hours and why they're so important to pay attention to. Let's talk about this overnight repurchase agreements program because yes we saw $13.5 billion being pumped into the US banking system through overnight repos and this is now the second largest liquidity injection since COVID and it surpasses even the peak of the dot-com bubble. But it's all good you know nothing to see here. Look of course we've seen many of these movements before and I always say yes they're very interesting to look at but ultimately we need to go back to the bonds market and see whether they're freaking out. I always kind of feel that the bonds market is a pretty good allocator of overall risk and right now I haven't seen the signs of it cracking just yet but I'm sure when it does we're going to have to be on it. If it's your first time here make sure to subscribe to the channel by the way as we will be discussing that quite a lot into the future. So let's take a look here at investor asset allocations. Now here's where things get very interesting. Bonds bonds bonds no one is buying bonds. In fact we're now hitting some levels that are I think a little disturbing. Take a look here at what happened in 1999 into the dot-com boom. Have a look at what happened here before the global financial crisis. Do you see a correlation? If you notice the fact that nobody held bonds at both those times it was kind of like the calm before the storm. So are we seeing that again? This is from Callum Thomas over at TopDownCharts and I've got to say it's a pretty interesting chart certainly one I'll be looking at several times over. Notice that whenever we have massive fear of course people start to buy bonds post GFC and of course when people are feeling pretty good about the world nobody tends to want them and I can say that bonds have been pretty bad for quite a few years. That makes sense that no one's really paying that much attention to them. Should we be soon? I would think so. So of course we'll be tracking them even more closely into 2026 as no one likes them at the moment. Makes me kind of like them. What about you guys? Let's take a look here. Obviously the right ones though. Google in log scale. Interesting chart here from the market stats over on X. Consecutive months up Google has been one of our favorite stocks of the year. We thought it was underpriced back over in this point here back well it was only a few months ago really it was about June and May and since then it's been pretty much one of the best performers. Now when it's gone on in the past to have eight consecutive months up and everyone starts talking about it it actually hasn't performed that well over the next couple of months and you could argue oh yes well you know now we've got Gemini 3 we've got this this this this this yeah but we saw that months ago and the market's already seen that a while ago so you gotta remember it's often packed into price which is why we say if it's in the press it's in the price. Not saying Google isn't pretty much fair value a little bit above that now but it is obviously getting up there. The big easy money has been made and now we're in the last third usually of what you end up getting. Silver. Now interesting chart here from Tabby Costa. Obviously I'm a big fan of his work on on the metals you know I'm loving the metals we've loved the metals here on the channel for a long time. Silver adjusted for CPI has just broken a very interesting trend line now if you look at silver raw price it'll be at an all-time high but if you consider CPI then you're going to get a very different read. And I think one of the interesting things here is that silver just seems to be from strength to strength to strength and I do have a special on silver soon to talk about where I actually think it'll end up and why I think it'll go there. Now a scary read because obviously there's always a bearish side but I don't think this is enough reads here from Subutrade is that when we've had eight months up in a row that's tended to be let's just say a little bit too bullish and it's tended to lead into very bad markets for silver. So of course it's only one read and therefore it doesn't have enough statistical kind of you know backing but it is something that I thought I'd bring in the show you've got to have both sides look at both ends and see which one's big. Another one here from Duality Research shows us that the breadth of the market is not as bad as maybe people think just yet I've been banging on about concentrated markets for quite some time you can see back in the dot-com bubble we were really in a concentrated market well I would still argue we are in one right now you can see large cap tech sector spend is going through the roof thanks to the word data center and the real economy and other companies well they're just not buying as much so basically they're not spending anywhere near the amounts of money that we're seeing from the biggest guys and I think that's really important to note that we have the tale of two stories here remember if we lose semiconductors we lose big tech and they don't keep coming along and be very difficult for the index to do much over the next coming years. So it's very important that we have tech sector basically leading the charge if that stops we see rotation like we're currently seeing right now and it gets even more rotating that is a bad sign I know it seems good but it actually could be a very bad sign. Speaking of rotation this one from NextGenNews really good read along the lines of what we've been talking about which is a weaker November a stronger December and generally a pretty good structure into the end of the year yes the reads the stats the data information with breadth like we saw last week during Thanksgiving it's quite strong but I just want to remind everybody it's pretty normal to get a little bit of sideways action here in December at least at the start and then more of a rally at the end. That's a cool chart here from Blue Kirtik that shows the S&P's historical December bottom dates and it turns out that most of them it bottoms in the first week so you can see here December 1 to 5 41.3 percent of the time it's the bottom and then funnily enough you don't tend to bottom until if you haven't bottomed this week it's not until the kind of third fourth week around that real Christmas rally period that you tend to actually start to see the bottom so some interesting reads here certainly worthwhile paying attention to the structure. Now with the NASDAQ going up seven consecutive months in a row you might think well it's the end. Have a look at this chart here from Nautilus again we often say strength ends up bringing more strength it's when strength that was quiet becomes not so quiet and it becomes loud and volatile that we need to be concerned. So of course we've started to see a little bit of volatility that means that the easiest money is probably out of the way and the more persistent watcher of the markets probably going to do better into the future hopefully you guys that have been watching this channel and many others like it and you want to be more informed why because this is the type of thing that often does happen you can kind of see here when you get these plaster effects you often do get a little bit of a sit kind of in the markets but generally there's more to come and a lot of the time this strength isn't quite near the end you can kind of see here there's still usually months and months and months to go and I think that's really encouraging for the bull out there in terms of this week we kind of knew that Monday would be kind of bad usually Tuesday Wednesday not fantastic days but Thursday Friday this week are usually more positive and that's in line with of course a very strong week last week it's a bit of a breather before the next move the market stats here also went through VIX crushes you know VIX crushes the percentage is important that lines up with what we're talking about with the Thanksgiving reads and obviously we also saw so many people stacking calls getting very FOMO-licious into Black Friday and that tends to bring as you can see here a generally poor week which is this week right now when it comes to Subaru trade and the stats down here so only 24% of the time were stocks higher in similar circumstances I think that that all kind of just paints the picture we've got strength but we often need to see a little bit of a pullback before then now why do we have strength well my argument is everyone's borrowing money and that ends up bad but you can see here the global financial tightness indicator yeah it's not very restrictive right now and you might think oh it's hard to get money well the proof is in the pudding it seems to be very easy to get certain loans right now and this is because governments are trying to eke out that final part of a very bullish run that we've been on now for what is it like 18 years so it's been pretty long does it end now well not based on our studies of the strength above the 50-day moving average over 138 days very strong structurally looks good tends to bring a little bit of vol but next year is really the question and the same read that we tend to get here in the Nasdaq as well there's a lot of volatility most likely coming in 2026 and I think that's a narrative that you'll hear a bit here because I do think it's going to be a tough year to navigate if you're not on top of it Bitcoin ETF flows have we seen the by the dip come through well as of the 1st of December which remember was kind of similar to today's price we've seen some allocations of the data we've come through also the 28th did have some buyers obviously it had a huge seller here so you can kind of see flows are starting to come back into Bitcoin just as the news is starting to get really bad and you'll notice here that in the last video we talked about liquidity steals we talked about these two levels particularly 86 and 83 and the market chomped both of those and has since started to structure up so we'll come back to this chart later on because Bitcoin's actually starting to look pretty interesting the average purchase point is literally around the price we're at right now so of course this scares out a lot of retail traders that is the aim of what Wall Street tends to do and of course hopefully we start to see structural pickup let's now have a look at the S&P what have we got the most traded zone up the top here so obviously a very good level for it to take a breather we've got the 6700 zone down here which is a put level and here are the options highs and lows nothing really to note other than this is a zone that you would expect the market to struggle with a little bit and then we really go more to the options to try to find the next level so remember 6850 because as you'll see here 6850 is heavily struck from a call perspective so if the markets do rally through then that's going to be pretty strong and we could move towards the 7k kind of markup now on the bottom end 6700 becomes really important because that seems to be the most struck put level so we often call these put and call zones and if we break those zones often big managers or at least the options writers have to start kind of you know hedging their bets a little bit and that can cause what we call squeeze effect or a positive or negative gamma move 50 6700 seems to be the put zone at the moment and of course 6850 is the call area so they're kind of the dynamic resistance supports that we've got tesla on the other hand a lot of people michael burry included is hating on this stock at the moment obviously you don't really look at the narrative instead we look at the price the main thing here is it closed above 420 425 that kind of creates a more structural bottom and it does lead into the possibility of being in positive gamma and you can see here at 430 we're kind of moving towards a stronger looking market for nvidia it's not very interesting on the on the kind of options market 180 is a core wall 185 so clearly just a little bit of resistance there and for ibit we are back at that important big put zone so take a look here at the options guys 47 this week that's pretty much right smack bang where we found ourselves when it comes to the liquidity steel level well guess what there's a put wall there that's actually pretty good for buyers now if it loses this zone or could get nasty it could get really nasty because you may notice 43 which i think is going to correlate pretty well with around 75k so we do not want to lose 47 on ibit we do that things could get kind of nasty for gold 390 is the core wall and that's why we're sitting here on gold a little bit take profits looks really strong along with silver so let's now have a look at the leads first up bonds market guys i don't see a problem yet i know you want it a lot of you want it it seems like you want it like we did the monday live stream and everyone was going on about the yields and the the japanese bonds and stuff i understand the narrative but the issue is is that it's been going for a long time we've obviously seen several spikes several times this narratives come in and several times it has not eventuated and usually you get this kind of key historical level and everyone starts making a big deal about it it will eventually end badly i don't disagree with you but for now we pay attention we watch we look for the probably american bonds markets to start to freak out because i know you might say why because you know we're over in japan well the main thing is that i usually find that the best market in the world the most powerful market the one that usually leads everything else into real collapses or not that one will start to shake as well and when that shakes then you've got a you know it's mass panic across the board let's have a look at one of the other reasons why we're not shaking just yet and that is of course if you have a look here at the large caps excluding the mag 7 so a lot of these funds coming up nowadays look at this that's a new all-time high close so basically we have more breadth in this market in terms of more companies are increasing it's just not coming along with tech and particularly it's not coming along with the biggest company in the world nvidia and that of course shows us that it could be a stagnation before the next move or it could be part of a bigger systemic problem the 2050 cross here of moving averages that's a little bit concerning if we drop something like a 165 that will be concerning at the moment though the market is technically still bullish and you've got to remember when you look at all semiconductors we haven't really totally destroyed structure yet we've seen weakness but that's nothing new to anyone that's been watching this channel rotation has been the last month's kind of best play and we've seen the you know the up tick of xlv oil services biotech gold stocks all of these types of things a lot of these not that one but a lot of these are actually more defensive so kind of shows you that people are maybe even playing the stagflation style play at the moment in the markets or at least betting on both sides one of the reasons with like gold silver platinum palladium etc dollar index no real uh adjustments here to our last 24 hours of thought still technically high time frame bullish low time frame definitely bearish so uh we'll see what happens there and gold uh took out the 420 4200 loan and of course hasn't made it back to 4350 but i think this is very encouraging for gold and silver and silver of course holding its squeeze zone at 57 you know that is just very strong you know for silver traders for people that have been bullish on this for anyone that picked up that 50 that we were talking about back in october beautiful guys i give you a clap i give you a clap hell yeah hell yeah to you couple of good replication trades uh particularly this close here i thought was really strong which we spoke about then of course the sell here was pretty good and if you managed to re-enter uh in here well done to that that was great trading but for the investors pretty good tesla holding above which is i think not bad so tesla even if it gets a pullback i think there are buyers here for now and the chinese markets continue to just slowly move up which is in line with the liquidity you know kind of movements here gotta remember with nasdaq we also hit the mean reversion and we found bounce there which is good we've also broken the downward trend line which is kind of good and we've come into the supply of the most traded area so again would you expect weakness here the answer is yes do we then you know hopefully find a buyer yeah i would actually like to see it pull back a little bit maybe a 24,700 this kind of area in here and that will correlate pretty well with a kind of like a 6,700 i'm not really bearish though on the markets at this stage at the end of the year so for me it's just kind of like watch levels and see if there's replication there the bitcoin it's definitely the hardest chart to look at right now you've got the daily 20 moving average down looks kind of nasty obviously we've bounced we've dropped uh we have hit liquidity steel levels and if you look at the small time frames you're going to notice some structural bidding so you can see here that we've got this kind of rejection area but i think if we close above that and we start to see real maybe further bidding and then we struggle with 91,000 the daily 20 is the key for the bulls at this point 87.5 is going to be a very important level to close above and that is a full liquidity swipe on the lows so it's the type of thing that we often look for if we do now get a bid and we're certainly seeing some of the early signs of bid coming through again more people are freaked out that's the type of thing that you know markets do well and if we swipe this low again and close or it could get nasty guys it may even go down to that 75 ish thousand and that's going to get a lot of people very worried about this pair so obviously more to come we'll see how it holds but for now you can clearly see that daily 20 the bears there would be very happy there's a bit of bid we'll see whether it can hold up it certainly is the zone if it's going to do it so that's a very important level to watch if you enjoyed today's video then please remember subscribe guys follow us over on x follow me on linkedin thomas atkinson and of course you can check us out on the other socials uh black friday sale i think we extended it for a few more hours so if you're interested you can check it out but the main thing guys is to keep calm and always ask yourself the question of whether you know a scary piece of news really makes that much difference whether it's the one that brings down the system there's no doubt the japanese yields are concerned and i i hear you guys on it and i've seen it now since 2012 13 for myself but the problem is is every time i've seen it as a concern it often just gets washed out by other things i think there are bigger problems afoot and let's just say it's global and yes it will be part of the story the question is when thanks so much for watching we'll see you in the next one bye for now