How The Fed Just Sparked the Next Stock Market Super Cycle

Wall Street's buying the dip for a very simple reason, but they're not telling you that reason. This kind of pisses me off. Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest investment banks out there, they just put out this note, they send out this weekly review of where they think things are going and they send it, of course, to institutional clients, the guys with the money, right? Not to you, not to me, but I have got Rose here who's got good connections and she sniffed it out. And I honestly think, if you understand this, you're going to make better decisions going into year end. So we're going to share it with you because I just think it's unfair that we have two different levels of information, right? We've got Wall Street up here with all the data and then we've got us and we're like, what's going on? Why is it going up? Why is it going down? So we're going to fix that here for you. I'm going to walk you through that. I've taken notes. I'm going to walk you through the most important highlights of this. We're going to look at some of the big tech guys out there, some of your Mag 7s, your Palantirs, your Sophies and so on, to make sure you guys are better informed in this crazy market that we're in right now. First of all, the Fed's daily, Fed Governor Daley said this just, and this is important and again, most people don't realize this. She says, on the labor market, I don't feel as confident we can get ahead of it. It's vulnerable enough now that the risk is, it'll have a nonlinear, whatever that means, but she's basically saying that inflation is more muted than anticipated while the labor market is more concerning. Why is that a big, big freaking deal? It's a really big freaking deal for two reasons. What's the Fed's job? Got the Fed. What does the Fed do? You get a pen, you can see a little bit better. They have two jobs. They have to have a job to have inflation low and their second job is to have jobs high. Now those work against each other. When you've got low inflation, you tend to have a slow economy and therefore you have few jobs. When you have lots of jobs, you get lots of inflation because everyone's asking for a pay rise, right? And that's how that works. Now, what they're saying is we are less concerned about inflation. We are more concerned that there aren't enough jobs because the jobs that are just out is terrible. And therefore, what's the conclusion? Well, what do you do to get more jobs? You lower interest rates. Why? Well, essentially, money is cheaper, so you can borrow more cheaply. What does that mean? Well, you get more investment, right? Because companies can now afford to build the extra warehouse, buy the extra machinery, hire the extra people. What happens when you get more investment? Well, you're going to spend that money on some other company's profits, right? So what actually happens? Well, profits tend to go up if I could spell profits. What happens if profits go up? Well, stocks go up and therefore you feel more wealthy. This is where it continues. It's basically a snake that never ends. When stock goes up, wealth goes up. And when wealth goes up, what happens? Consumer spending goes up or down, up or down, up or down. It goes up, of course, right? Because you feel more wealthy. Now, what are you spending that money on? Well, you're spending that money on company's profits, company's products, right? So therefore, the profits go up some more. Therefore, stocks go up some more. The wealth increases and you spend even more. And we get into this wonderful, marvelous circle of Christmas happy giddiness. But the market data here shows us exactly what happened. So this is the odd of rate cuts, the likelihood we're going to get rate cuts. There isn't some loon walking around with a clipboard and a kitten going, do you think rate cuts are going to come? Yes or no. No, that's not how it works. It's actually a tradable instrument. You can put all your life savings on rate cut odds if you must. Don't do that. But it's just gone back up to 80% likelihood of a December rate cut. And we were at like 20% only a few days ago. So this statement from the Fed has just changed everything. It should be the title for the video, right? You think so? Rose, should it be the title for the video? We're training her up. Analyst in training. You can tell she's paying attention, right? So that's important. Now, at the same time, another thing I like to look at is the most shorted stocks. The shorted stocks are what? They're the riskiest stocks, right? So the hedge funds short these stocks when they think it's going to go down. We're going to make money. But when it goes up, they stop shorting them. And the most shorted stocks just went ballistic yesterday. Basically, from Friday's low to Monday's huge increase. They're about 10% went up about 10% in one day. That tells you risk is back, baby. And it's time to make some money. So if you look at me, look, walk you through some of the key data that Goldman's talking about. We go back to the Goldman report. I've got a screenshot to share with you on that one as well. But if you literally just look at the dark pool flow from yesterday, and you can look at that and trade vision, it's a platform that Rose and I built. Now, I've got a great partner. He's an ex Twitter developer. And we've been building this for four years. And we basically give you access to institutional data. That's really the whole thing. And one of those things is dark pool trades. And there's a free trial down below. Check it out. Felix Frenzel.org slash trade vision. Felix Frenzel.org slash trade vision. And you can see the money flowing in here into some other, you know, CrowdStrike, Jeeva, Nova, we've been talking about that for a while. Biotech, Johnson and Johnson have a position on that oil stocks. We've been talking about that financial stocks been talking about that. But Coinbase, Tempest, you know, AI stocks, right? New scale power. These are all AI plays. A lot of money is flowing into AI stocks and oil companies, which is what we've been talking about. Semiconductor, that's a 3x leverage semiconductor ETF, right? So that's interesting. And it's flowing out of some other things you can you can look at in your own time. And then you look at the actual NASDAQ here, QQQ. And it gives you a lovely little lesson in why charts matter. So we saw a... can we get a pen, Rose? Are we allowed a pen? Yeah. So we saw this pretty significant drop down here, right? We bounced off the 50-day moving average line, that yellow line there, that's the 50-day MA. And then we broke through it here. But we're now wedging up, right? So we've got this V-shaped recovery, a little bit of resistance there still at the 50-day moving average line. But and again, this is data that nobody really has access to. If you look at institutional positioning, we have a lot of room to run because the resistance up there is it's at $640. $640, write that down. So resistance on the QQQ is at $640. We're trading at right now at $605 as I'm recording this. So that's quite a big room up there, right? And guess where the supports are? The support sat at $585. And where did we bottom out? At $585. It's almost as if this data works, isn't it? Yeah, someone's always still going to say... someone always writes in my comments going, oh, these lines are pointless. They're stupid. This is a random line. It doesn't mean anything. The world's going to end. That's the way they write that. I can tell the exact tone of voice just from seeing it. So the second thing to always look at is the VIX. What is the VIX? The VIX is... anybody? Put it in the chat, put it in the comments. Fear, right? What do you get when you have lots of fear? You get a tanking market. A tanking market. Now, what happened? Well, it spiked up pretty high to $28. And I always say above $20, worry. And where are we right now? We're at $20.5. That's pretty okay, but like on the edge of... we don't need to worry about this anymore, right? Rose, are you worried? I think she's okay. I think she's going to be a VIX futures trader, don't you think? She's now sleeping on the chart. Helpful. I literally can't see the screen anymore. Rose, probably not the best place to snooze. Snooze over here somewhere. So that's positive, right? And you get a big, big, beautiful decline like that. And we're talking three days, 27% down on the VIX. That is positive. Muy positive. So that's a good thing. Always want to look at that. And then you look at the MAG7. These guys got pit pretty hard. And I know because I've got quite a lot of money in these guys. And I was like, I'm not really enjoying these days. But you know, we got our rules. So we're probably just fine. So what's the first thing to look at? Well, first of all, look at where's the previous low? Previous low was sort of there. And what did we do this time? We did not really break through that low. We didn't close below the low. That's positive, right? We bounced up. How far did we bounce up? Anybody? Anybody in the chat? How far did we bounce up, my friends? Well, we managed to bounce above that little yellow line there, which is the line of all lines. It is the golden line of all golden lines. It's the 50 day moving average. We're close to above that. That's a great big freaking win for big tech. So that's positive. Very positive. What else, Igor? Well, do you want to see where institutions sit? Well, institutions don't trade an ETF called the MAGs because it's a product made for retail. But they do, of course, trade individuals. So you could look at, say, NVIDIA. And, you know, not great. But where's the support? Down here, 165. Exactly where the 150 day moving average line is. But we also have upside all the way up to 200. But not looking perfect and beautiful yet. What about something like Microsoft? Not looking very nice either. But if you're a dip buyer, well, Microsoft hasn't been this cheap since July. Again, I'm not telling you to buy it. I'm just saying. Do I like it below the 150 day moving average line? I do not. No, no, no. I do not. Particularly, volume is increasing as the selling intensifies. So be a little bit careful with some of these individual names. I'm just saying the market overall is looking better. Now, what about the worst of the AI stocks? Like the worst stock, the one that's just really taking the biscuit. It is Oracle, right? Leverage to the hilt. Markets concerned about their ability to pay their debt. Now that, what did it do yesterday? Well, actually, it improved slightly. It seemed to have bottomed out. It went up 0.7% on pretty strong trading. Not where I want it to be. I'm not an Oracle. But, you know, it doesn't look that great. We're still below the 150 day moving average line. But it's at least sort of bottoming out. And then you got gold. Gold is spiking. Why is gold spiking? Well, because the Fed's going to cut rates. Like, just think this through. Think this through. I'm a huge gold bull right now. I haven't been a gold bull for like, you know, since I was about six years old. But what do you get when you get higher inflation? Why would you get higher inflation? Well, you start at lower interest rates. Lower interest rates are going to give you higher inflation. What does higher inflation do? Gives you higher gold prices. It's as simple as that. It's a hedge. It's a hedge against inflation. The dollar is going to lose more value. That's the plan. That's the only way the U.S. can deal with its debt. And gold is looking lovely, right? Really nice green candle here yesterday on gold, 1.58% up. And I haven't checked them out yet, but I'm sure some of our gold miners probably did quite nicely. And have a look at what are some of our gold miners. For example, here's one. NGD, no recommending it, but it went up 7.4% yesterday, right? We've got GROI, for example, Gold Royalty Corp. That went up 7.1% yesterday. So the gold rally is back. It's brilliant. What about some of our big favorite tech babies? Well, Palantir, for example, did again a thing that makes you maybe, maybe, maybe want to learn a bit more about how charts work. And you've got two lines here. You've got that line there, the purple line. That's 150-day moving average line. That's sort of the line for investors, I always say. And then you've got the yellow line, which is the 50-day moving average line. And that's the line for traders, which is what most of the market is. And therefore, it's really, really important. So we dropped below it once, fake out twice, and three times a lady. And then we bottom out exactly here at the 150. So that's come some strength, that's some support. We are moving on up 4.78%. You might have realized that by now, I learned English through pop music, which is why my head is, you know. So does that look good? Yeah, it's a good bounce. We can look at where the institutions sit. There's resistance at 165. And you can see yesterday's top of the market at 165. Well, that was the institutions. That was those bloody market makers selling. Bastards. And where was that? Here it is, right? Can you see that? Can you see it clearly now? The rain is gone. Up there, you see those lines for basically between 250 and 350. Those buggers were selling. And then they were selling hard here going into the end of the day. That's your ETFs and your institutional money selling pretty hard. So we got that resistance at 165. Doesn't mean we can't take it out, but I'm just saying it is there, something you might want to be aware of. Now you are aware of it, right? You could also go one deeper and you can go back into the dark ports and you could say, well, let me have a look at what happened with my favorite stock Palantir yesterday. I'll just type that in here again as a free trial to trade vision down below. And you can see, well, yesterday, actually, institutional options flows were very bullish, very bullish. And if we look at the biggest trades, well, they were all buying call options, all of them, all of them. It's like everyone's like, oh my God, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, right? What about any really unusual trades? Well, they were all still, everyone was buying. Everybody was a buyer yesterday, right? So actually I excluded the sell side. I apologize. Not everybody was a buyer. Let's look at the biggest trades again here. I thought it was a bit one-sided. Buying a put. Okay. That could be hedging, but buy on large share. Yeah. We are very, very bullish. So $9.9 million in call options bought only 3 million in puts, which can again be part of hedging. But yeah, so very, very bullish set up there for Palantir. Doesn't mean it's necessarily going to go up. No, of course it doesn't. It's just data. It's just information. The more information, the better information you've got, the better decisions you can make. What about something like our fintechs? Now fintechs love what? Fintechs, say it with me, love low interest rates. Yes. Fintechs thrive on low interest rates. So far bouncing 8.7% yesterday. Was there any news we missed on that? Let's have a look. Crypto was a little bit older. We have a really cool like analysis there. You can see everything that's going on with these stocks. You can also make that full screen. You can see exactly what's going on with everything. We've got the sources to all the data in there. You also get news alerts on those. They ping up on your phone literally for your stocks and your stocks only, which is like one of the coolest things in the world. So you know what you're doing. Another word on that in a minute. But yeah, this is good. It's a gap up moving up. We're still below the 50 where it's still a little risky here, but it's looking pretty sweet right now. Any other stocks we should look at? Let's look at some of the big boys. Apple as we're at it. And then actually we wanted to go back to the Goldman's report, didn't we? Apple here, really strong, really, really strong for a company with no innovation. It just looks a little bit like a head and shoulders. But let's hope it keeps breaking out to the top here. So it's got to really break out of that 276 resistance there. 280 is the next institutional resistance there. But yeah, we got two days here of going up 2% and then another 1.6% on growing volume. So very sweet set up there for your Apple holders. And everybody's an Apple shell. Everyone's like, no, no, I don't own any Apple. No, you do, because if you have a 401k or any kind of ETF you own, you own some QQQ or some NASDAQ or VU or whatever, you own Apple. Trust me, everybody owns Apple. That's the way it works. I mean, even Rose owns Apple stock, don't you? You have any Apple stock you're harboring? It's just such a cute little fluffy kitten. I've never had a kitten this relaxed and this chill. You can bounce her about and she's very happy. So also looks a bit like a bat, doesn't she? I think she's got a very deep thoughts going on in that. All right. So one word on news, because it's super cool. You can take, you can take any watch list you have. So let's say a watch list with, you know, one of my portfolios, for example, there it is. Don't buy what I'm buying. It's because I'm buying it. That'd be a silly thing to do. And then I can literally just toggle this on and off and I'll get news alerts on these on my phone. I can also turn on general market news. But for me, it's really all about the news that I care about, which is literally, you know, the stocks that I'm interested in. And then they pop up on my phone like that. And it literally is no noise, no politics, no bollocks from mainstream media. It's just news that's actually moving your stock. Right. And you get them first, which is which is, again, the key thing here. But yeah, let's just go back circle back to good old Goldman's. They sent the invest in bankers with a with a with a soft heart that love and care so much that they are voluntarily sharing this information with us. They're not. They've been saying here, look, growth concerns. And this is important. This is one of the real reasons the market's rebounding so strongly. Growth concerns may be overblown. Atlanta Fed GDP for the third quarter was 4 percent up, which is awfully high when there's a classic head and shoulders pattern on cyclicals and defensives. Head and shoulders. We're just talking about that. There are many depressed areas such as regional banks, transport chemicals, low income consumers, small businesses exposed. But growth in the first half of 2026, this is important thing, should benefit from tax bill and tax receipts to middle income consumers should be favorable. So this divergence is interesting and a good discussion here. That's a way of saying we're really interested in those sectors and in those stocks without actually saying it, because, again, they don't want to put out like financial advice to the wider world. But yeah, they're basically saying, look, growth is going to come in strong. It's going to be handouts from the government. It's going to be good. They're saying liquidity is going to improve quantitative tightening. So money shredding will end. And we expect they'll likely start buying treasury bills to grow the balance sheet in the new year. Do you know how big of an announcement that is? Just in there in the middle of a 50 page report. That is money printing. The Fed is resuming money printing. They're going to pump the markets with money, new money, fresh money, nice swelling money. Where's that money going to go? It's going to go wherever it thinks the highest returns will be. And one of those places is the stock market. So we're going to get a nice 2026, according to the folks at Goldman's. And then they're talking about AI productivity and so on. And they're saying if companies are more productive and generating more profits from using AI, this could be bullish or the S&P. And they're literally excluding tech stocks. So they're saying, yeah, tech stocks have rallied because everyone's excited about AI. But the rest of the S&P, all those companies are likely to make more money and get more productive. And that bonus is not yet reflective in stocks. It's worth something to note. And they're basically saying AI at risk is at relative lows. So these guys are pretty ******* bullish, right? They're basically saying we're going to get a And we're going to get money printing back in 2026. You tell me how the market is going to crash with those three things happening. At least make whatever happening in the world. That's always a possibility. And we always want to prepare for that. This is why we have automated risk management. But you get growth, you get free money, and you get more money printing, which is more free money. Well, it's kind of hard to be really depressed and miserable, isn't it? Who's feeling depressed and miserable? Did I just cheer you up? I made a bullish video. I got killed for making bearish videos. Because there are real risks out there to this, right? The whole inflation thing. But what I'm always saying to you is it's not doom and gloom. It's just you've got to be positioned right. You've got to be positioned in the right kind of a space, right? So if you want to learn how we do that, you want to learn from the people I learn from, my mentors, you're also very welcome to do that. Then this is the week of all weeks because it's still the Black Friday week, right? So it's literally the best time to do this. How do you do it? You go to felixschwenz.org freedom. I'll link down below in the description. You book yourself a free strategy call. On that free strategy call, my team will walk you through what it would look like to work with my mentors. What it would look like to get my watch list every Sunday before the market opens. And what it would look like to learn the skills to actually become a better investor. And learn the skills you can teach your children and your grandchildren and everybody else in the world, which is really what this is all about, right? Making more people free. So do that and I thank you for watching. All the best. Warren Buffett just did something that nobody saw coming. Not even Winston here and he's got a big nose. The man who famously said tech companies are outside my circle of competence just dropped $4 billion.