Are Interest Rates About To Explode Greatest Financial Bubble In History Peter Boockvar

If this tech trade does falter over the next couple of quarters, the next couple of years, I think it's going to take down the U.S. dollar with it. We're in a bond bear market. I've been saying that for years. We're in a bond bear market. It is global and it follows the epic, possibly the greatest financial bubble in the history of bubbles in terms of dollars when we had 18 trillion dollars of negative yielding bonds. This is the flip side of that. And I think it continues in the years to come. I'm pleased to welcome back to the show, Peter Bookvar, CIO at OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners and the author of the book report. We'll be going over his outlook on the markets, bonds, stocks, energy, inflation data and the FOMC expectations for later this week and the remainder of summer. We're speaking today on Monday, July 13th, and stocks are starting the week lower with the NASDAQ down 1.5 percent. On the agenda is the reaction to the market news today, as well as the outlook. Welcome back to the show, Peter. Good to see you. You too, David. Thanks for having me again. Stocks drop as Trump imposes a new set of blockades on the street of Hormuz is the top headline on the news this morning. Now we're speaking after market close and SK Hynex is leading the chip stocks down and tech stocks are selling off. So the NASDAQ is down 1.5 percent. The S&P is down only 80 basis points in comparison. What are you seeing right now? Is it just a matter of rotation away from tech stocks during earnings season? Or is there a bigger macro picture at play that's driving the charge downwards today? Well, tech stocks now need to be defined in two different ways. Speaking of the AI tech stocks, because there are other tech stocks like software that are unrelated to that and they've been obviously pushed aside. But with the focus on AI, you have the spenders and you have the recipients of that spend. And starting last year, the spenders started to get re-rated as people noticed the deteriorating free cash flow and the enormous amount of money that was being spent, while the recipients of all that money, particularly semiconductors, as we know of late, were rewarded. But I think even semiconductor investors realizing that gravity does exist, particularly if you're a DRAM producer or someone who is in storage like Western Digital or Sandisk. So I guess a little bit of vertigo, I guess you can say, with the semiconductor trade. But when you are 18 to 19 percent of the S&P 500, you really do matter at the same time that the hyperscalers, the spenders, those stocks are under pressure as well. So investors are trying to find maybe other things that can work like financials ahead of a flood of bank earnings this week. It's not just financials in the U.S. that are doing well. In Europe, in Canada, in Japan, in China, bank stocks seem to be outperforming. But I do think that there is a major transition taking place here, away from MAG-7. And I do think that that's notable, considering those stocks have been the leaders over the last 15 plus years. I want to come back to stocks and tech stocks in particular in just a minute. But ahead of the FOMC meeting, are you anticipating that markets will react with further volatility as Kevin Warsh evaluates the latest round of inflation data and unemployment data, meaning are you expecting a more hawkish Fed to drive volatility upwards, Peter? Well, the Fed meeting is in a couple of weeks, but Warsh is giving his testimony in front of Congress this week. And if we take what he has said, both in terms of Sintra Portugal a few weeks ago, but also the last FOMC meeting is, he's not going to tip his cap to what he wants to do. But we do have other Fed members that are, particularly Chris Waller, Fed governor, which today said that if we do get a hot CPI tomorrow, he'd be inclined to possibly raising interest rates at the end of the month. So this concept of, okay, no more forward guidance was sort of kicked to the curb today by Chris Waller. So it's interesting that what Kevin Warsh may want may not be agreed upon with the rest of the committee. But irrespective of what the Fed may do on the short end of the yield curve, we're seeing a continued rise in long-term interest rates. And what is most interesting, at least in the US, is that the rise in long-term interest rates is not happening because inflation worries are increasing. If you look at the inflation break-evens within the tips market, they're remaining still very subdued. So the rise in interest rates is actually a rise in real interest rates. And I'm not going to say that it's happening because the economy is accelerating. It's still around 2% growth. It's not happening because there's been a major improvement in the labor market. The last jobs number was just okay. I think that debts and deficits now matter. I think investors are getting swamped with supply for the first time in my career in terms of responding to that on pricing. And that's not just in the US, it's in Japan, it's in the UK, it's in France, it's in Germany. And I think that's a pretty noteworthy thing. So right now, as we speak, inflation expectations remain at 3.8% for June. This is slightly down from the actual CPI of 4.2% of the previous month. Now, let's suppose the markets are right. We're looking at a softer inflation print though. Do you expect this to stay, especially now that basically following the gathering of the CPI print from the previous month, the Iran war situation has reignited? So it looks like even if we do get a softer inflation data, it's possible that we could see renewed tensions in the Middle East in the Strait of Hormuz. And that could push oil prices upwards. What's your expectation? Well, that's certainly clear today with oil prices rising $6 plus. Now, I've been of the belief for the last couple of years that 3% to 4% is the new inflation normal, no longer 1% to 2%. And I still think that's the case. And if you look at where the Fed funds rate, the effective Fed funds rate at 3.62%, there's really not much the Fed can do. I think they're very much on hold. And you can also argue that if inflation's at 4 and they're only at 3.6, they're actually pretty accommodative. And if inflation's at 3, well, you can argue that they're still accommodative. So I think the Fed's going to do nothing. I think inflation is going to vacillate between these two sides. I think that while crude oil prices have fallen notably, we've seen much less of a fall in product prices. And I think that is noteworthy, whether it is jet fuel, diesel, gasoline, heating oil, and because of the bottlenecks that are now apparent on the refining side. So I don't think that the consumer is really going to get much relief. But I do want to emphasize, though, that the inflation picture is not just what the consumer price index will tell us. I think investors also need to merge that with the producer price index. Because just because a price is absorbed at the producer level or the business level, because they can't pass it on, doesn't mean that there's not inflation. There's still general inflation. It's just a question of who's eating it. And I think there's no question that we remain in this still very persistent inflationary environment. Central bank buying of gold is at record highs, and money is flowing into gold ETFs like never before. 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And be sure to review their cautionary statements, forward-looking information, and risk disclosures, all of which are available on their website or on Cedar Plus. Take a look at my screen now, Peter. This is the crude oil price, and I'm going to overlay this with the US 10-year yield. You can perform this exercise with 30-year. I'm just going to use the 10-year for now. It looks like there's been a very close correlation ever since the beginning of this year. This is a three-month chart right now on my screen. With the oil price ticking up, are you expecting the 10-year to follow? Well, the 10-year is already leading the way, so it's a question of maybe oil prices following the 10-year. We've seen a dramatic rise in real rates, in inflation-adjusted rates, and that, to me, is very noteworthy. Whether that means that the bond market is sort of front-running their expectations of inflation, or as I argue, maybe that's the case, where I argue that maybe debts and deficits now matter, I do think that this is really a noteworthy thing. And again, not just for the US, but for global interest rates around the world in the developed markets, this notable rise. And it looks like consumers finally had a bit of a reprieve from higher oil prices ever since it started coming down in May. We saw consumer sentiment take up slightly from the previous month, and now it looks like inflation expectations have dwindled somewhat. Do you expect all of this to reverse by the end of the summer, Peter? Well, it's because product prices haven't fallen that much. Gasoline prices were $3 before the war started, and even with the recent decline, it's still around $3.85. So crude oil prices have fallen much more, but as I said, because of bottlenecks with respect to refining capacity, product prices have fallen only a fraction of the decline in crude. And we know consumers don't use crude, they use product, and I think that's why inflation expectations are still rather elevated. Take a listen to what President Trump had to say about the Iran situation. We hit them very hard last night. Every time they send a drone, we hit them very hard. But we had a deal. What nobody knows, we had a deal. It was a done deal. And then they broke it. They always break it. We've had 10 deals with these people, and so we're just going to hit them very hard. And we're going to keep the straight, and we'll probably run it, we'll become the guardian of the straight. Maybe we'll call it the guardian angel of the straight. And we should be reimbursed for that. When we do that, we're going to be reimbursed, because the other nations are very wealthy, they're on our side, and we can't be expected to do that for nothing, unlike we had for many years. You know, we guarded the straight for 50 years, more, and we never got paid for it. They made all the money, and the United States was just, you know, not, they wouldn't, it's amazing. Okay, he wants to, he said he wants to run the straight, be the guardian of the straight, and get reimbursed for it. What is this signal to you when it comes to the situation in Iran? Well, I'm not necessarily sure who's going to pay us to do that. But putting that aside, you know, an MOU is just a memorandum of understanding. It's not a deal. And it's clear that negotiating with Iran is very difficult, because they feel like they have leverage. And unfortunately, they're not giving up their nuclear capabilities. So that further complicates the negotiations. And as long as they feel like they have leverage, they're going to create these problems. Now, can we ease the situation with sort of helping ships go through? Yeah, I hope so. But, you know, that remains to be seen. But there wasn't any deal, where there was a 60-day window of a negotiation within the ceasefire. But, you know, it's a cloudy situation. Unfortunately, it remains the case. And I think at the end of the day, oil prices won't be sitting in the 70s, it'll be sitting more in the 80s and 90s, as people realize how difficult it is to manage the situation with Iran. As all this unfolds, we're looking at how the Fed is interpreting economic data, as well as the developments around the Strait of Hormuz. What kind of language are you specifically looking out for when we're watching the FOMC meeting in a couple weeks? Well, we got pretty clear language from Chris Waller when he said if we see higher or hotter inflation stats this year, he's going to be inclined to raise rates in the near term. Well, two weeks ahead of the FOMC meeting, I would consider the near term. But that's his opinion. I do think, though, this is the most sort of differentiated committee that we'll see. Because Kevin Warsh, okay, he may have his own opinion about forward guidance, but that may not be joined by other Fed members. And it actually complicates the market's view of what they'll do. Because if some Fed members tell us what they want to do, and others tell us what they don't want to tell us what they want to do, well, how are we going to gauge what we think going into each of the meetings? It's very much a coin toss. And also, we know Kevin Warsh announced the creation of these task forces, particularly on the analysis on inflation, and also economic data gathering. Well, how can they move rates before these task forces even tell us what they're thinking? So, it's a very different dynamic than we're used to. I mean, I'm a fan of Kevin Warsh. I think he's a refreshing addition as Fed chair. I just think that he's still, though, subject to circumstance, and he's still subject to colleagues that may not believe in the approach he's taking. So, I think in the aggregate, it's a bit confusing on how they're going to proceed from here. But I don't think that in the testimony this week that Kevin's going to be able to reveal much, again, because of his belief on not giving forward guidance. When you look at labor market data, are you seeing a clear trend either towards deteriorating labor market conditions or improving labor market conditions because the nonfarm payrolls have been oscillating in growth month after month? There's definitely not a clear trend. There has been an improvement in the establishment survey in terms of job increases this year, relative to last year. No question about that. But if you look at the household survey, which is measured differently, that's been pretty weak. And the only reason why the unemployment rate hasn't gone up is because the participation rate continues to fall. So, there's just this weird bifurcation in the labor market with a lot of the job games being mostly healthcare and social assistance, but many different cross-currents that is not providing sort of a confident view on the labor market. I think for now, it's clear that Kevin Warsh, he's expressed his main focus on inflation. Chris Waller today saying that he's focused on inflation. So, the labor market, which became a focus last year, as inflation fell and the labor market weakened, that seems to be flipping again, where inflation is the main concern. Stocks are reacting to what more this year? The monetary policy coming out of a new Federal Reserve chair, or perhaps data coming out of, or expectations coming out of the Middle East situation, or simply just reacting to earnings. And so, could it be possible, Peter, that if we do have deteriorating conditions in the Middle East and rising oil prices, if earnings continue to outperform expectations, none of this matters, even if we do have a tightening Fed? Well, over the last couple of months, that's been apparent. The U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market is all in on the gen AI tech trade and the data center build-out. That's the only thing that matters in investors' eyes in terms of viewing the economy and the markets. So, we had a test of whether higher oil prices, where the conflict in the Middle East matters, and the stock market and the economy seem to have passed it. It's all about AI right now. That's not to say that $100 oil, if it goes back there, is not going to matter. It's not to say that if the U.S. 10-year yield goes to 5%, that's not going to matter. I think it very much will. But the U.S. economy, the U.S. stock market, again, all in on this AI tech trade, for better or for worse, going forward. Okay. Last time you were on the show, we talked about the dollar-NASDAQ divergence. From a foreign holding perspective, we had discussed the possibility of the MAG-7 as a reserve asset for foreigners. Now, can we talk about this? Is the dollar still a leading indicator for the tech trade at this point? I don't know if it's necessarily an indicator, but I do think that if we look out the last couple of years and look forward the next couple of years, because of the heavily exposed foreign investment managers are to the U.S. tech trade, so goes that trade, so will go the U.S. dollar. If this tech trade does falter over the next couple of quarters, the next couple of years, I think it's going to take down the U.S. dollar with it. We talked about earlier in the year how you preferred foreign equities over international equities over U.S. equities. That certainly has played out, Peter, as the South Korean South Index, the Korean KOSPI Index, outperformed what was the best stock market in the world, the Taiwanese outperformed, mainly driven by TSMC and the South Korean semiconductor stocks. But recently, in the last couple of weeks, these subsectors have started taking a turn. Do you think that foreign companies, especially Asian tech companies, are still the preferred play for the remainder of the year for you? Well, the U.S. AI trade is the same exact thing as the South Korean and Taiwan semi-trade. That's all one bucket, regardless of where these companies are domiciled. So again, it gets back to it's the AI trade and then the everything else trade, and that everything else trade can be plenty of companies in the U.S. and it can be plenty of companies internationally. I think going forward from here, the anything else trade is going to do better than the AI tech trade. Let's suppose we do have the AI tech trade falter or slow down by the end of the year. Are we looking at a capital rotation out of tech into something else, or do you think that'll pull down the entire market with it? That's the big question. From an economic perspective, I'm pretty confident that if the data center construction, which is still rather robust, and it's expected to be even more robust next year when you look at the CapEx estimates, if from a rate of change standpoint, anything slows this down, then I do think that that's going to have major economic implications because the contribution from that build out has been so enormous. I think from a stock market perspective, that's the big question. If that trade falls and that brings down the stock market, can there be other things that offset it? Can the baton be passed onto other things? I want to hope so, but I'm worried that maybe that won't be the case. If you look back from 2000 to 2002, 2000 to 2001, ex-tech, those stocks did okay. But in 2002, everything came together to the downside that culminated in the bottom of that bear market where the NASDAQ fell 82%. That's going to be the big question. I'm not confident enough to know the answer. I just know from an indice standpoint and an economic standpoint, things will get hurt if we lose that AI tech trade and that data center build out in terms of rate of change. Do you think central bank policy around the world could have an influence on U.S. markets, particularly the Bank of Japan? Last month, they raised the interest rate to 1%, the highest since 1995. With JGB yields so high now compared to where they were before, does that put pressure on U.S. treasuries? Could it put additional demand on Japanese assets with interest rates higher? Well, we're watching for that possible repatriation at any moment. You had the finance minister last week calling for Japanese investors and Japanese pension funds, particularly the GPIF, to diversify outside away from foreign holdings and more into Japanese assets. Now, that happens or not, we'll have to see. But at some point, there's going to be a JGB yield that is going to be much more attractive than a U.S. treasury yield. I'm not sure where they are yet, but I think we're headed in that direction. I think the weakness in the yen, the persistent weakness in the yen because the BOJ is still dragging their feet, going slow with raising rates, causes its own problem because it forces the JGB market to tighten for them. It creates further inflationary pressures with the weekend. So I think what happens in Japan must be watched by U.S. investors and investors around the world, because what happens there is not going to be isolated to there if these trends continue. And so what ultimately is the impact on U.S. markets if we do have a repatriation of Japanese assets? Well, you have Japan that owns 1.2 trillion of U.S. treasuries, the largest foreign holder of them. That will be a source of funds. You can imagine that plenty of Japanese investors and pension funds own a ton of U.S. tech. That would be a source of funds. So it's important to watch. And I don't know what's left of the carry trade of those that short the yen and buy other things. I think it was much bigger a couple of years ago and then unwound. I don't know what's left of it, but I have to believe there's something there that would get unwound too, potentially. So ultimately then, do you want the U.S. interest rate to continue going up? You might want. Well, if you're a fixed income investor, yeah, you want an opportunity to invest in higher rates. But from a stock market perspective and a stock market multiple perspective, it would be toxic if interest rates continue to go higher. The 30-year is already at 5 percent and not quite at the May level, but getting back there, Peter. This is a 10-year too. Yeah, exactly. Where is it headed for the rest of the year, do you think? I mean, I still think we inevitably retest 5 percent, which is where we got to in 2023. I think we're in a bond bear market. I've been saying that for years. We're in a bond bear market. It is global and it follows the epic, possibly the greatest financial bubble in the history of bubbles in terms of dollars when we had $18 trillion of negative yielding bonds. This is the flip side of that. And I think it continues in the years to come. People have been talking about the inability of the Treasury to pay back its debt or perhaps finance its interest expenses or putting more stress on the Federal Reserve if interest rates go up with mounting debt pressures. Yeah, we haven't seen any sort of sovereign debt crisis in the U.S. ever since interest rates climbed up from above zero to where it is now, Peter. And a lot of people I remember back in 2020 during the COVID era were calling for this type scenario or at least some sort of bond crisis similar to what we saw in Europe in 2011 to happen in the U.S. Why hasn't it happened despite higher debt, record levels of debt, widening deficits and higher interest rates? Well, as I said earlier, I think we're investors do now care about excessive debts and deficits. And it's not just here. It's in other parts of the developed world, particularly Europe and Japan. So I think investors are beginning to care, but it's not an event. It's a process. And again, I want to point out this notable rise in the 10-year yield at the same time inflation expectations are not rising and the U.S. economy is not accelerating. That is an interesting sign that I think we should take note of. And that may be to your point, maybe we are starting to care. But it's not we're never going to see the U.S. is never going to see what happened to Greece and Italy during 2011. We have a printing press. Of course, we're not going to see it. Everyone will get paid back. But that doesn't mean that the 10-year yield can't go much higher before there's a response in Washington, whether it's a central bank response in suppressing that rise in rates, or it's a wake up call to Washington to get your financial house in order. Do you think Kevin Walsh will institute a soft cap on money printing? Because the constraint here is higher inflation. If he continues to print himself out of debt, inflation will go up, even if maybe debt is paid off. I think the last thing Kevin Walsh wants to do is further expand the balance sheet and play games with the yield curve. That's not his thing. He doesn't believe in it. He's told us that. And that's not to say that at the end of the day, he has to resort to it because there's a problem. But that's not on his bingo card right now. So more or less then, do you see any fundamental changes to your market stance now than a couple of months ago when you factor in the developments with Iran and the newest economic data and how the Fed, the new Fed chair, could interpret the newest economic data? I still remain pretty long and bullish on commodity stocks, particularly energy. That's sort of been, with respect to the Middle East, a port in the storm and relative to other parts of the commodity space. I mean, precious metals have disappointed, but because that is in response to the rise in real rates and modest lift in the dollar. Still bullish on agriculture, uranium, and also on consumer staple stocks that have gotten beaten up. And I do think that the Gen-AI tech trade, hyperscaler trade ended last year. And I think we're now coming to the end of the receivers of that spend in that trade, which has been extraordinary. I think that trade's getting tired. And I think looking out the rest of the year, investors are going to need to find other things and that the benefits of this data center build out, the benefits of this AI trade is going to accrue to the users of it, not the builders of it. Users being the Mag-7 stocks or consumers? No, the users of AI, of technology, of software. Businesses and consumers that are going to use AI in their daily life and they're integrating it in their business. You look at the airline industry, for a hundred years, the airline industry didn't make any money. But flyers, well, we were able to go around the world. You look at the rails, the whole railroad build out, that obviously blew up and it benefited anybody who needed to ship stuff. That's what happens sometimes when you create this situation. You look at the builders of the internet in terms of fiber optics and routers and so forth. Well, it was the people that layered on top of it, like the Amazons of the world, that really benefited. And the users, of course, through e-commerce and so forth, those became the beneficiaries of the internet build out, not the infrastructure builders. I do wonder if some of this CapEx was overspent on the database build out. If we were to come to that conclusion, what headlines would you need to see to support that hypothesis that maybe they spent too much money and now ROI is going to be too thin and the markets are going to readjust to that reality? I think we've already heard SpaceX all of a sudden flipping around, taking their own capacity and saying that they're going to lease it out to Anthropic and Google. Meta all of a sudden saying, hey, we have some excess capacity. We are going to now lease it out to other companies. So I think we've already gotten a couple of signs that we've had some overbuilding. And we'll see where that goes from here. But to me that those were two noteworthy situations. Besides bonds, what else do you not like in a potentially rising interest rate environment? Well, as I mentioned, I'm not a fan of this tech trade as amazing. It's been more so on the MAC-7 side. I think that leadership now is lost with these companies because of the cash flows that are falling off a cliff. Can the semi-trade still go on? Yeah, maybe. They're still putting up phenomenal numbers. But I just think that micron trading at 10 times sales certainly reflects a lot of that good news. As we're speaking, three of the seven MAC-7 stocks that I was looking at are down in the year, including Microsoft, by the way. And so if these MAC-7 stocks were to regain leadership, what would they have to do here in this AI-driven environment? I think they would have to halt capex spend at these levels, which on the other hand would mean that semiconductor stocks would get destroyed if they made that announcement. But that's what they would need to do. They would need to reverse this dramatic deterioration of free cash flow. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening because we have to understand that there's this industrial belief, and maybe they're right, maybe I'm wrong, that they're going to spend a lot of money in the next couple of years. And then in maybe year four, there's going to be this pot of free cash flow money. And maybe, but I also see possibly a very high level of maintenance capex that these companies are building into their business models in terms of depreciation expense, the enormous leases that they're signing, and the need to constantly update these data centers in terms of the tech stack every couple of years, need the new fastest chips, need new data servers, and other equipment, and so forth. And then you just have a higher level of maintenance capex, which means that these companies are just not the same acetylate businesses that were beautiful in terms of their businesses and their free cash flow generation, that maybe those days are behind them. So ultimately, if we're to look at, or if I were to look at from a journalist's perspective, what's driving news flow right now, it's really dominated by two themes, both of which we talked about. So on the one hand, we've got the Iran situation. On the other hand, we've got earnings in the tech sector. Are they completely separate stories just moving in parallel right now? Or can you find some sort of bridge? Well, it has been, you know, Google and Amazon and Meta, they're spending what they feel like they need to spend, irrespective of whether oil is at $70 or $120. Now, of course, underneath that, when oil is higher, you know, that's going to affect the consumer. But in terms of the capex and the data center construction, yeah, it's going to cost them a bit more money, because the price of memory is up and, and they're going to have to pay more money for steel and aluminum, because of issues with the street, that money is still going to be spent. The question is, what happens after the money spent in these data centers have been built? You know, what happens then? Yeah, how recession proof are these mag seven stocks right now, especially since most of them have over the last decade, switched most, if not a majority of revenues to a subscription based model? I don't know. I mean, at the end of the day, Meta and Google are essentially advertising models, right? So they're still subject to the economy. Amazon is a big retail business, they're still subject to the consumer. Microsoft still sells a lot of software to, to seats, you know, employee seats. So if the job market deteriorated, you know, they're going to sell less seats. So there's still an economic sensitivity there. They still breathe the same economic air as the rest of us. Okay, finally, Peter, you mentioned commodities. Now, besides oil, what do you think of the base metals and precious metals? You mentioned that precious metals have disappointed so far. Do you think they'll continue to disappoint? And broadly speaking, what is your view on the commodity index? Well, gold and silver continuing to digest their extraordinary run last year and into early this year. I think that was going to happen irrespective of what the catalyst would be, because anything that goes parabolic is going to fall back rather quickly, and these did. I think from here, they're being driven by real rates in the dollar. I don't think real rates will continue like this, because I think that inflation numbers will catch up. I'm not confident that this dollar rally, which has been kind of modest, actually, in light of expectations of Fed hikes instead of cuts this year, we've only seen only a modest rally in the dollar. So, I do think at some point in the back half of this year, gold and silver will resume their bull mark. I'm not sure when, though, but I do think that that will happen. In terms of industrial metals, obviously, they're economically sensitive, so I don't have as strong an opinion on that. We do need them for this data center build-out. You can't build a data center without copper and aluminum and steel and a variety of other things. So, there is a bid underneath there. I also do think you have a big picture story of stockpiling that is going to happen for the next couple of years in a variety of different commodities, as no one wants to get caught short like they did with the straight. We saw a few weeks ago the Department of Defense announcing that they're going to essentially create a lithium strategic reserve. Germany wants to create a natural gas strategic reserve. We know that countries are going to have to restock their strategic petroleum reserves and then probably add some, and there'll be some countries that create new ones. I think there's going to be strategic reserves created in fertilizer and copper and a lot of other industrial-type metals, too, so that's going to lead or drive an underlying bid to commodities. Okay, excellent. Thank you very much. Tell us about the book report, what you're working on next, and what we can expect to find. The book report is just my daily thoughts on a Substack page called a book report on the economy and everything macro and micro. Then my day job is really a CIO of a wealth management firm and a PM on two portfolios. I put down on paper my thoughts and try to utilize those thoughts in terms of investments. Excellent. Thank you very much, Peter. Tell us where we can find you besides the book report. Well, that on the subscription and writing side and then onepointbfg.com on the wealth management side. They can check out our website. Okay, I'll put the website links down below, so please do check out One Point as well as Peter's social media. Thank you very much, Peter. Welcome back to the show and I look forward to speaking with you again. Take care for now. Same here. Thanks, David. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.