Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plan is Getting People to Negotiate: Geopolitics Expert

Joining me now to discuss the 28-point peace plan to end the Russia Ukraine war is Kervin Oakwin, former lead intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance coordinator for the US Army. Kervin has direct experience in USRussia relations. During the first Trump administration, he participated in an overt anti-Russian campaign and now hosts the geopolitical intelligence podcast, This Week Explained. Welcome back, Kervin. the Ukrainian delegation discussing the 28point peace plan with uh European and American counterparts in Geneva today. What do you expect to come out of these talks? >> Well, first of all, thank you so much uh for having me. Good to see you. Uh I think this very uh an important situation that we're going uh that we're seeing here right now and and so what are we looking at? Uh I think we're looking at typical business practices from a businessman in President Donald Trump who was giving an ultimatum of a certain date uh to come to a conclusion of this knowing full well the conclusion can't be made but he's getting people to negotiate now. Uh we spent the last few months uh talking or we the states spent the last few months talking to the Ukrainian side, talking to the Russian side. We couldn't get the two sides to come together and put a plan in place. So now we have a 28-point plan, much uh much like the bulletoint plan that we saw in Gaza. Um and and then a forceful rhetoric of you're going to agree to this by Thursday, Thanksgiving. That's something we know President Trump likes to do. Uh he likes these big holidays to present something, but knowing full well that with the m the sheer magnitude uh and implications of this conflict that that that deal is not going to happen by Thursday. But it's going to get people negotiating and you're going to have uh different plans being put out from uh from different delegates so that some point the two presidents can come together that Zinsky and Putin can come together and negotiate in good faith. Now critics of this plan have have been outspoken about it. Um we're hearing that senators calling it um a Russian wish list. Uh, we'll get into that in a little bit, but I want to just ask, how far apart do you think the two parties are on this plan? Russia being Russia and Ukraine at this point. >> Yeah, I think they're still oceans apart. Um, look, I'm hearing some within the Russian mail bloggers that Russia will not even agree to this 28 point plan. So, I kind of laugh at the fact that people think this is uh just based off of a Russian wish list. I don't think Russia is wishing to um to to give away $und00 billion dollars that uh they feel was taken from this through various sanctions and give it to Ukraine for for rebuilding. Um I don't think that was part of Russia's plan. I think what we're seeing here is something that looks more pro-Russia um than other deals that Western Europe would have liked to have made. But there's a reason for that. to get Ukraine to come to the table. And and from a business aspect, this is what happens in negotiations. You offer something you know is not going to be approved by either side. Um if you're mediating in the hopes that there are a few things that they can start to agree to and then it does not look like complete capitulation one side to the other. And the the big thing here is both leaders both leaders have to go back to their people and claim victory when all is said and done. Now Kervin, you're saying that what's significant about this is that they're getting it's getting people to talk when they they weren't there wasn't the kind of urgency perhaps Trump would have liked to have seen prior. So, do you think that these talks could actually go somewhere or do you think that this could sort of just peter out and then we'll be waiting a few months and then there'll be another moment like this? >> I mean, that's the hundred billion dollar question and recent history tells us that uh it's it's the former, right? So, um I I don't know. I honestly don't know what's going to come of this. I don't know what Putin is is going to say. I don't know what Zinsky is going to say. I know right now that um it is getting delegations to talk to each each other, but you have two presidents who honestly do not like each other and have said publicly, whether on podcasts or within their own state media, that they will not sit down with the other person, the other person is a villain. And until they bridge that gap of mistrust, I don't know that we get sincere talks from the two leaders who have to agree to this. Yeah, it'll definitely be interesting to see that if that actually happens, but we've seen a lot of surprising things happen in the Trump administration so far. So, who knows? Uh, now, US senators, coming back to the senators, um, they they're critical of this plan, um, some of them, and they said Marco Rubio called it a Russian wishlist, after which Rubio said it was authored by the US. What can you tell us about the origins of of this proposal? Yeah, I think uh it's something that uh that I always say uh on the podcast is that two things can be true at the same time. It is a wish list given to the United States that uh they then took and put um a 28point plan together. Look, this is what's going to have to happen. You will take a wish list from the Russian Federation. you will take a wish list uh from from Ukraine and you will sort of smash them together uh in what you the the mediators think the two sides can agree to. You'll put that on a plan, present it to both sides and have them debate over what they can accept. They're going to have to accept, look, Ukraine's going to have to accept that their borders have moved. This is not something that we like uh in in modernday society. Um but it is just a fact. When a war happens and you and a nation invades another nation and breaches a certain border, um at some point uh that border sticks. Now, uh I think also Ukraine doesn't like the demilitariz the the demilitarized zone because they actually hold that area. Um so there's going to have to be some talk about that. uh about that as well. But I think the key point here is going to be you cannot have a redo of of the Buddha of the Budapest agreement from uh 1994 I believe where Ukraine was asked to re they were the third largest nuclear nation and they were asked to remove all of their nuclear weapons in the promise that they will not be invaded by a uh by an adversary. We saw that that uh did not happen. Um they were not given a security guarantee. They were given basically a promisary note saying if you are invaded by an adversary, we will come to your assistance in the form of weapons or money or anything. But no NATO 5 style agreements. That's the agreement that Ukraine needs right now. It's the one I'm going to keep talking about everywhere that I talk. Um and it's the one I think Zolinsky needs to push for. >> And is we're seeing something like that in these 28 points. Do you think what's represented in this plan is enough to be a significant a meaningful security agreement or could we end up like we did with uh after the um the agreement in '94? I think the one that's in the plan right now is a guarantee um that NATO will react militarily. And I think that uh I I what I don't think are um are vague promises um not having read, you know, the entirety and all the footnotes within this plan, I won't speak to that. But if they if there are no um tangible valid or validated uh security agreements NATO 5 style, if that is not in writing, then I think Ukraine should and will walk away from this. Um so that's something that they're going to need to be pushing on. That's what I hope they're talking about in Geneva right now. And I I hope that that's the plan that they push through, understanding, okay, we know our borders have shifted, but we want this security guarantee because we all know what Putin wants. He wants the entirety of Ukraine and NATO and uh so Western Europe, NATO, the United States and Ukraine have to be forceful and say that cannot happen. Now, if if Europe and the Ukrainians don't agree to this plan, then what we're looking at is the United States withdrawing military support, uh military weapons support and um intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Could, you know, say they reject that plan, could Europe back Ukraine to push Russia out of Ukraine and, you know, reclaim that territory from Russia? Yeah, look, I don't think that Ukraine has a chance right now where it where it stands to push Russia back as it as it currently stands, but with the backing of Western Europe, um I think Western Europe is going to need to be more forceful in how they're helping Ukraine. Um unfortunately, the only way to do this is to put uh boots on the ground. That's going to involve NATO. that could feed definitely feed into what Putin actually wants so that he can start a war with NATO under the opice that they started with Russia first. But um what I think here is if if Ukraine says um that they're not even going to negotiate by Thursday and the United States pulls out of their efforts to uh for intelligence sharing, which I would say is even more important than the than the munitions and the military support that Ukraine is getting right now. Um, I I think Europe is going to have to fit the bill. They're going to have to spend extra of what the United States uh won't spend. And I think that's going to be all part of trying to get everyone um to the negotiating table to get something tangible um in place here. Ukraine's got to play it very safe. They have got to understand that this could be something where where Russia tries to tie them as the one who's not going who doesn't want peace, who doesn't want to negotiate. So they have to come and come out publicly and forcefully say we are trying to negotiate. What we are seeing here is a Russian federation that does not want peace. >> All right, Kervin Oakwin, former lead army intelligence coordinator. Thank you so much. >> Thanks so much for having me. Stay safe out there. You do the same.