Edwardsson: Trump är handlingsrealist – struntar i gamla regler

The Fredsavtalet in the Middle East is proceeding somewhat A hostage exchange has taken place What are we seeing happen in the Middle East right now It has been a bit chaotic Yes no it's more or less as planned so this agreement is now running its course It is set up so that there are several checkpoints in a row The hostage release was the first and most crucial step The hostages were exchanged for a number of thousands of Palestinian prisoners Apparently there have been problems in finding the remains of several of these dead hostages They are also included in this I don't know anything more than what is said in the news One should remember that some of these people may have died two years ago What remains of them if they even know where they should be Everything is just burned down there One can only hope this doesn't become too big of a problem after all Hamas has released hostages to Israel Israel has released Palestinian prisoners Hamas however remains in Palestine We have seen videos of Hamas members executing Palestinians in the open street What does it mean for the Middle East and the US that Hamas remains an actor in the Middle East This is the very joker that was easy to see could become a problem As I said last week this agreement practically requires Hamas to It abolishes itself but turns itself into a political non-organization Give these people's ideology and worldviews and other things it's easy to see that this would become a problem Trump made it clear yesterday He went public and said to stop this Otherwise we'll come in and shoot you Now let's see if that helps You should talk to farmers in the way farmers talk so I said So we'll just have to see if this helps This is definitely the biggest and softest spot in this that can go wrong For these people it is mostly what we in our part of the world They would call them hyper-criminals They are murderers they are rapists They are psychopaths and sociopaths in every way And only a few of them to not only stop shooting but to give up all the power They have had a lot with people It is going to be a huge project This is one of many peace agreements that have taken place during the Trump administration What everyone hopes for is also a peace between Russia and Ukraine This week Trump came out and threatened Putin saying that if he doesn't come to the negotiation table there will be consequences The United States will supply Ukraine with empty drones What does this mean for Europe This outburst should first and foremost be seen as an outburst Tar two or three steps back and looks at this process from when Trump Come back as president and he has been working to put pressure on both sides o bring them to the negotiation table It started when he had a A very strained relationship with Zelensky It has now improved The relationship with Putin has deteriorated as Trump has come to realize it It is not possible to communicate with Russians in the same way as with Western politicians This statement about empty hagfish should be seen as just that This is a typical Trumpist tactic in this way Could Ukraine now I'm not a military person but could Ukraine get empty rocket missiles Then they could practically start hitting targets in and around Moscow and even farther away So larger targets They have already attacked smaller ones with these small drones Men this could take out entire weapon factories and maybe even military headquarters if they get something like this I only remember 48 hours after Trump came out waving this So last night the news came that now Putin wants to meet Trump in Budapest I think that's what it was A bit unclear when but you get everything as it is here Trump is a negotiator and he doesn't care how it looks or sounds politically The only thing that interests him is the final result Only a reckless politician would dare to promise empty promises to Ukraine One can imagine Carl Bildt or Christersson or Magdalena Andersson They would never dare to be so careless so to speak What could make Putin listen more Then he waves a bigger flag so to speak So this is something that should be taken seriously but not too seriously For it is another step in this nearly nine-month-long process To get these two to even start talking to each other They haven't even met yet But I have to say you can get Israelis and Palestinians to sit down and talk Then I'm quite convinced that one can also get Russians and Ukrainians to do it It is a long and intellectually brutal process to get it For the emotions are so strong and locked on both sides that it takes a diplomatic language to get them on the negotiation track Another conflict that has escalated is the conflict between the USA and Venezuela Some of this is about drugs being stopped from entering the United States But what is it about in general I think for Trump it's mostly about drugs He is very worried about such fentanyl and other substances flowing into the US from China from Central America and from Venezuela For this is easy to believe that it's just another thoroughly corrupted one A South American dictator who wants to make money by selling drugs to American teenagers There is surely that dimension to it as well Maduro and the entire regime he represents have however more or less openly aligned themselves Among others China and Cuba which have an ideologically driven rivalry with the USA The two countries are communist and Venezuela has some form of socialism going on there So one can simply view this as a modern form of irregular warfare None of these countries not even China would be able to win in a full-scale war against the USA In our modern world with the internet and drugs a completely new form of warfare has developed Some call it irregular it also has other names While peace still formally exists try to disrupt and destroy the enemy's homeland It's what the Chinese and even the Venezuelan government are trying to do To create as large social economic and cultural problems in the US as possible in order to weaken the US Obama got it I won't say if Biden got it but Trump has definitely gotten it That this is a new form of warfare We are leaving behind a world with formal declarations of war and so on Such things don't even happen once and that's the big problem here Now people are criticizing Trump for lowering such fast boats loaded with drugs heading toward the US It violates international law as it is called We make it safe for international law that was written for circumstances that existed 40 50 60 70 80 or 90 years ago Back then there wasn't anything like this These regimes completely disregard what is international law and right They are just working towards their own goals Trump is as he is a man of action saying okay two can dance the tango here He meets them in the same way In practice they ignore the rules that have been in place because they ignore them So this is a completely new type of warfare Fentanyl and opioid overdoses are indeed the leading cause of death among young Americans The precursors the raw material for fentanyl are produced in China and then fentanyl is manufactured either in Central America or Latin America Or it is smuggled in and finally manufactured in the USA China has made very sharp remarks to the United States regarding the escalation of tensions with Venezuela What could this conflict lead to and how big could it get I'm quite convinced that China won't declare war on the US for the reason that it's dealing with Venezuela Venezuela and China are now political allies so it's obvious they must protest If Trump pressures Venezuela and attacks Venezuelan ships it is China's job to do so Kina is a very large and slow dragon but above all a cautious one They would never risk a military confrontation with the USA over Venezuela They haven't even dared to press harder one to risk a military conflict at least not regarding Taiwan so far It is a much more personal and urgent issue for the Chinese in many ways This is big words and a lot of smoke and mirrors but as sure as one can be it won't lead to a war between the US and China any more than a war of words I am completely convinced of that One of Trump's previous questions was whether the USA would again take control of the Panama Canal This was because China controlled the ports on both sides of the canal Kina has very diverse interests throughout South and Central America What can be seen as a continuation from the US side regarding Venezuela and possibly after Venezuela do you think In a way this situation is somewhat similar to the one during the Cold War when it came to keeping the Soviet Union in check It was this containment policy that the US had It seems that Trump and the US are choosing a similar strategy here People are leaving China more or less in peace in the region Just because we cannot attack South Korea Japan or Taiwan Otherwise you will have to deal with it a bit as the regional storm is still ongoing As long as you don't attack American allies Southeast Asia is China's backyard Central and South America is the backyard of the United States There are two regimes in this backyard Cuba and Venezuela which are already de facto problems I think above all that the US is interested in making sure this does not spread Colombia has a very left-wing president It is a large and important country in many ways Strategically economically when it comes to drugs and much more I don't think the USA would accept Colombia uniting with Venezuela and Cuba against the USA Such a triad would be entirely too much So this is a form of containment policy here By putting pressure on Maduro and Venezuela now it sends the signals here but no longer We will even try to get rid of Maduro here if we could manage it There appears to be a very strong resonance between Trump and this outdoorsman The Venezuelan opposition leader whatever her name was So there are connections there All this stuff is about signals When they talked to each other so much here this week I think it was It mostly depends on the peace price but it was also He had a chance to send in signals The Trump administration has also designated Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations It also has allies in South America especially Argentina and Peru Trump is also a peace-oriented president So how high is the risk of increased conflict in South and Central America As you say Trump is not interested in any new wars On the contrary On the other hand he is a realist And sometimes you really have to stand up and fight for what you believe in And stand for That's how Maduro would be foolish enough to bring in the Venezuelan military and protect these drug boats Then he thinks he will very very quickly regret it For that there is no problem for the American defense the American air force They could probably take out the entire Venezuelan fleet in less than 24 hours if Trump gave the order He's got this little chicken race a wild card in itself Someone said some politician whether it was Churchill or something like that It's good if your opponents are afraid that you're crazy Because then they never really know where you're at Oh he's got that 110 percent We saw that when he told the North Korean leader last time here Kim went out and said that I also have a nuclear button My button is much bigger than yours And everything that Trump said It became quiet then even friendly visits This is the kind of language one must speak with such people They don't understand our Western They do understand it but they have no respect for our Western Very civilized political discourse These are power figures period They are such people A man speaks Latin with the learned and three peasants in the way of peasants And that's something Trump has completely understood One last topic I'd like to go into a bit There is still a shutdown in the federal government in the USA What are the consequences and why is it still a shutdown Yes this is It is a consequence of If viewed technically it is a consequence of the Senate's voting rules For the Republicans they have a majority in the Senate 53 out of 100 They only need 50 votes to pass a budget Depending on the Senate's filibuster tradition though They need 60 votes to end the debate before proceeding to a vote on the federal budget Here the Democrats have 47 Tag this as an opportunity They are otherwise completely opposed But this is their only card left in Washington To drive a pin into the wheel They have set a lot of conditions to end the debate so that the budget can be approved But they have set such demands that it is completely impossible For the Republicans to agree to it Among other things free healthcare for millions of undocumented immigrants Resumption of federal funding for various Left-leaning TV and radio companies and such So the Democrats have consciously gotten involved in this They did this before when Trump was president and they managed to blame it all on Trump saying it was his fault Trump makes many mistakes but he is a quick learner so it is rare that he makes the same mistake twice This time he has been much better at showing the common voters what their mistake actually is here So the measurements are much more 50- 50 this time depending on their error It's the Democrats who have the key to solving this problem This is now becoming a problem We're already in the third week There are millions of federal employees who aren't getting their paychecks National parks are closed and so on The absolutely most important work is still ongoing because they have exceptions for this The situation is becoming a significant political mess especially for the Democrats Now they have painted themselves into a corner here so the only way for them to get out of this is It's like giving up on what was demanded in practice Then even the media will start portraying it that way It was a major democratic defeat So this is going to hurt and it might probably last for a while Depending on that To hope that Trump's nerves will give out or something like that To hope they will agree to these demands Fast I would be very surprised if the Republicans win this time Now one is in the driver's seat so to speak regarding this