Rates Fell… But Buyers Didn’t Come Back | Frisco Housing Market Update

Mortgage rates have come down and there are more homes on the market than there have been in years. So why exactly aren't we seeing more people buy? That's a question I have gotten quite a bit lately from both buyers and sellers and I'll have to admit there's definitely a lot of noise in the headlines out there. Some reports you might see prices are still climbing. In others you'll see that the market's soft and prices are actually falling. So what's the truth? And more importantly what exactly does that mean for anyone considering buying or selling a home right here in Frisco, Texas? Well welcome into my October 2025 real estate market update and in this video I'm going to cut through the confusion and talk about what's really happening both nationally and locally. I'm more importantly what they mean for anyone planning to buy or sell in the coming months. And by the end of this video you're going to have a clear picture of where home prices are, where they're heading, what opportunities exist, and how to position yourself for success in the shifting real estate market. Hi this is Andrew with the Andrew Smith team EXP Realty here in Frisco, Texas and each and every month I break down the data so that you can make sense of what's actually going on in the market not just the headlines. So let's start by talking about what's driving the market right now and that is consumer confidence. According to a recent study by Lending Tree nearly two out of three Americans think a recession is coming and 74% say that current news and or world events are influencing their final or their financial decisions. To be honest with you that really tells us a lot about what people are thinking. It's letting us know that a lot of the housing decisions that are being made are based upon fear and uncertainty rather than facts. Now even though mortgage rates have eased this uncertainty is what's keeping many potential buyers and sellers to be honest on the sidelines. And this quote from realtor.com captures what's going on perfectly to be honest with you. It says while national prices continue to climb those are those reports that we keep hearing about that overall prices have moderated but are still climbing. Local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented. This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway. And let me show you exactly what that looks like. So right here this is a report that was done by Rezaclub and Zillow. And I know that all of the cities and states down here are hard to read but this is taking a look at the 50 largest metro areas in the country. And look at this. We've basically got half of the country seeing prices going up while the other half of the country is seeing prices decline year over year. Now these aren't huge dramatic declines not like we saw previously but they are declines. To give you an idea where are prices rising currently. Well the states over here New York, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Rhode Island. So again you've got pockets of the midwest and across the northeast. On the contrary if we go over here where have prices shown softening and declining. We've got Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, Arizona, California, Oregon. So you've got the west coast and the sunbelt areas. Now if you've seen any of the market updates I've done before you know I often say ultimately real estate is local. And as you've just seen from that national information it's all over the place. It's so different depending upon where in the country you are. And to be honest with you it honestly even depends on where in a city you are. We're going to jump into the Frisco market data here in just one second. But even within Frisco what's going on in certain neighborhoods on the west side of Frisco is not the same thing as what's going on on the east side of Frisco. So there are a lot of different dynamics at play currently which is why if you're thinking about making a move or thinking about buying a home it's important that we sit down and kind of go over these different dynamics so that you can put the plan together that makes the most sense for you. And in the description below I do have a link to my calendar and I'd like to let you know that I always offer everyone a free 30-minute consultation call to create a custom plan just for you and your needs. So with that let's jump into the local Frisco market data. So just like we saw with the national data there's definitely some uncertainty here in the Frisco market but there's also quite a lot of opportunity. So let's go over exactly what the latest numbers are telling us. All right so here's a look at the Frisco market overall and this is taking numbers from September. So the median sales price of all property in Frisco in September was $646,000. That's actually down 4.7% year over year and before that number makes you panic it's important to know that September of 2024 was a pretty low month as far as activity and sales overall. The median list price right now is $749,000 which is telling us that sellers are still hanging on. There's definitely a little bit of a mismatch between buyers and sellers right now. The price per square foot was sitting at $238 which is down 3.3% year over year and as mentioned with rates coming down we are seeing more activity especially as there's more inventory. So 176 homes sold in the month of September and these are single family homes which represents a 17% jump from last year and there were 281 new listings which is a 6% increase year over year. So with that in mind what do these trends actually mean for you? Now you know it's obvious that there's been some adjustment. A couple months ago prices were up a little but prices here in Frisco are remaining stable year over year in general. I mean it's going to vary from month to month. The 4.7% decline is not anything to get panicked about. It's showing that the market even here in a high demand area and still one of the most popular places in the country is normalizing. It's showing just a return to a more balanced market. It's not showing weakness or distress. From a buyer perspective you actually have more opportunity than you have in quite a long time. Prices in most markets or most neighborhoods I should say are below where they were in 2024 and there's more homes for sale. And for a seller it means that you really need to pay attention to what's going on in the market currently. You know analyzing current comps, current activity rather than looking at what was going on 90 days ago because those trends just don't apply today. And if a home is priced well and it's absolutely perfect in great condition believe it or not those are still getting multiple showings fairly quickly and offers are coming in as well. So when we look at supply because that's really what drives pricing. So we've seen a huge surge. So as of now there are 852 homes for sale in Frisco compared to 352 at this time last year. So with inventory more than doubling buyers definitely have a lot more choice than they have had in a long time. As mentioned 281 homes listed in actually that should be September and that's 6.6% year over year and 176 homes sold which again is a 17% year over year gain. So again with steady sales it's showing that our market is balancing out naturally. Buyers you have something you haven't had in a long time and that's leverage. You get to negotiate more with sellers than you ever have. You're going to be able to ask for more repairs do things like that where sellers differentiation makes the difference between getting an offer and not getting an offer. You're going to have to pay more attention to how the home is presented overall. Those little things that you could have overlooked a couple of years ago you can't overlook anymore. So that brings us to mortgage rates and the buyer psychology right now. As of this recording the average 30-year fixed rate was at 6.34%. We did see a low of 6.26% in September so there is still a little volatility in rates but they are definitely lower than they were a year ago. Well within the historical normal range but that doesn't help when people are comparing it to what you know the high twos three and four percent rates that we saw during the pandemic area and buyers need to have realistic expectations and understand that those rates are not coming back and the latest information and surveys is showing us that buyers seem to be waiting for rates to get sub six percent. There's different theories on when that is likely to happen but should that threshold be reached it's important to understand that that's going to drive everyone that's been sitting on the fence back into the market. We'll probably start to see our inventory come down and it will probably cause our pricing to start to accelerate once again. Not crazy runaway but do start to go back up. So for any buyers out there if you want to be strategic now is actually a really good time to buy. As a matter of fact not my opinion if you look at some of those national trends and headlines out there they're actually saying October 2025 could actually be the best month to buy based upon where we currently sit between inventory the availability of homes for sale and how much sellers are willing to negotiate. Overall what does all this mean? We're seeing our market transition from a one that heavily favored sellers to one that is much more balanced. The frantic bidding wars that we saw, the waived contingencies, the waived appraisals of recent years are all gone and I know this is foreign territory for many people out there including many agents that haven't seen real estate cycles but what we're seeing right now is normal. This is more of a normal real estate market. Buyers don't have to make a decision in 24 hours and sellers need to understand that it's going to take more time and your house isn't going to sell instantly. Time on market is definitely going to be longer than you've expected. The average right now is up around 77 days compared to 42 days a year ago. So it's important to keep that in mind. There's stable demand right now. Prices have definitely moderated. There's negotiation in the market again and the more inventory is giving more choice overall. So for buyers and sellers, buyers shop strategically right now. There's time for you to find the right home and you can compare all of your options. You're not pushed into having to make a decision immediately. You can negotiate. You can ask for credits for rate buy downs. You can ask for credits for repairs. If it's new construction, we're definitely seeing some great builder discounts and incentives right now. I would encourage you to act decisively. If you wait for the perfect moment, everyone else is as well and you're going to find that competition goes up. So acting before that competition jumps back into the market could put you in a better position. For sellers, now is really a time for you to understand what's going on and become realistic. It's not 2022 anymore or 23 or 24. All right, you really have to pay attention to the current market data. As anyone knows that talked to me, I often talk about diamonds and deals, right? If your house is absolutely perfect and I mean it needs nothing at all, it shows perfectly. It's just like a model. Everything's been upgraded and preferably it has a pool. Your home's going to sell and you're going to get top dollar for it. If your home is like every other one that's out there on the market right now and there's nothing overly compelling about it compared to others and you've done nothing to set yourself apart, you need to understand that what you think your home is worth and what a buyer is willing to pay are not the same thing and it's going to take a little bit of adjustment for everyone to bridge that gap. Staging your home matters. It's got to be shown really, really well and then marketed aggressively in order to stand out from the crowd. You've got to be open to negotiation, understanding that you're not going to get every single thing that you want, but the serious buyers are out there. They are active and if they lock in on your home, they definitely want to try and put a deal together. Here's what we need to look out for the most as I move myself out of the way here. So the holiday season is approaching. It's normal for us to expect a seasonal slowdown. That's what we're going to get. Rate movement. Potential demand surge is going to happen if we see rates fall below six percent. That seems to be a psychological threshold. New Construction is continuing to offer some of the absolute best deals out there right now, especially on quick move in homes, which as you may know, I feature quite a bit. And as we enter 2026 right now, everyone's expecting the market to be more predictable, more stable and be more balanced than it has been in recent years. Move myself out of the way once again. So what does all this mean for you? You know, if you've got questions and want to know what this means for your specific situation, then I do invite you to reach out, you know, go ahead and book a free 30 minute consultation session with me. There is a link in the description below that's going to take you directly to my calendar where you can book that call. Think of it as a discovery call. We'll put together a strategy specific to your unique situation and needs to understand what it is that you have going on. And so I can let you know what might be the best move for you. So again, whether you're buying your first home, if you're selling to upgrade, downsizing, exploring investment opportunities, then let's create that plan. And with that, I thank you so much for watching this Frisco real estate market update for October 2025. And I invite you to like this video, subscribe to this channel. See even my dog's interested now because I put new videos out each and every week to keep you updated on what's going on right here in Frisco, Texas. We'll see you next time.