Analys: Framtidens maktbalans i Mellanöstern | NTD NYHETER

peace deal and the dynamics in the Middle East going forward is Gregory Copley. He's the president of the International Strategic Studies Association and author of The Noble State, Governance Options in an Ignoble Era. Gregory, thank you so much for joining us. Always good to have you. Now historic day today as we saw the living Israeli hostages reunited with their loved ones back home. Now Egypt honoring President Trump with its highest civilian medal in Israel, nominating him for theirs world leaders including some Trump detractors praising him for this achievement as well. Talk to us about just how significant today is. What was it about President Trump and his administration that allowed this to happen? Well, it was the force of President Trump really which was so critical to bring this about. He used unprecedented amounts of effort as he did to create the Camp David Accords in his first term. So this is really about a passion of his. He is absolutely committed. He was up against enormous odds and by the way, still is. This is not over yet. He faces I think even greater challenges going forward. Very important point. I want to dig into that. But first, you know, we saw President Trump and world leaders in Egypt today, but there was one notable absence Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Now his office says it was about an upcoming Jewish holiday, but some reports point to an alleged push by Turkey to block his attendance. How significant is Netanyahu's absence? It's very significant. You had the two major combatants in this war, Hamas and Israel, absent from the signing of the peace accord. That makes you wonder how long this accord will last. It was deliberate that Prime Minister Netanyahu was kept away from the Sharm el-Sheikh peace talks and the signing, largely by the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. President Erdogan is really at war with Israel. He told President Sisi of Egypt that he would not come and he would make sure some Arab leaders did not come to Sharm el-Sheikh if the Prime Minister of Israel was there in attendance. So Benjamin Netanyahu actually pulled back from that. He didn't want to stop the whole ceremony. But what we see now is that this is President Erdogan of Turkey trying to take center stage, and yet he is still at war with Israel. He is the one who basically organized, financed and ran Hamas. Hamas is a Muslim Brotherhood organization. Erdogan's in Turkey is a Muslim Brotherhood government. So this war is going to go on in another fall. Erdogan has been attempting to control the new government of Syria, which is right at Israel's doorstep, of course, right on the border. So Turkey is there continuing this war against Israel. It will continue to be a problem. Erdogan will continue to find a way to stimulate renewed conflict and violence. If he doesn't, he is basically out of business because his whole credibility at home depends on being a winner. And right now, the Turkish economy is in the nadir of its existence, really. So Erdogan is going to be a problem going forward for both President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu. And yet, President Trump has bribed Erdogan to come along to this event by promising him F-35s and other US high-tech weaponry. A lot to unpack right there. I want to go back to your earlier point, though, to when it comes to a blasting peace. Now, Hamas has a history of not keeping their end of the ruling power. How likely are we to see the deal hold up this time, and what's required from different stakeholders in ensuring this? Well, the first thing that Israel knew it had to do was it had to eliminate Hamas as a credible fighting force. It went a long way down the track to doing that. But now, of course, part of the peace deal is releasing a lot of Palestinian, particularly a lot of Hamas fighters, who will now go back into the fray in one form or another. Yes, they may be inhibited from using much of the land mass of Gaza to do that, but they will find other ways to do it, and they will be and are being financed by President Erdogan of Turkey. Not so much by Iran. Everyone's worried about Iran's role as a financier of Hamas, but Iran is not the main player in this at all. Iran, in fact, is now withdrawn largely to a large degree from that. It's a Shia country, and Hamas is a Sunni Muslim Brotherhood organization. Expanding on that, there are already some concerns that Hamas isn't following through with its commitments. What is the Trump administration's approach to handling this issue, or what should it be? Well, it's going to have to be fairly tough. It's going to have to support a clear management of the Gaza region going forward, which will mean eliminating any presence of Hamas in the new administration. Unfortunately, I think President Trump has allowed people such as the former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to be part of this board of peace running, if you like, the new Gaza administration. That's going to be a problem because Prime Minister Blair is not really a supporter of Israel in any shape or form. He's there, I would say, for his own personal reasons, which are not necessarily in the interest of long-term peace. So you've got a huge number of problems. Israel will have to be tough. President Erdogan of Turkey is there to make sure that Israel is seen to break the peace agreement when he's once again challenged by Hamas through military and terrorist activities. A lot there for sure. Looking ahead, though, what are you watching for in the Middle East, whether it's the expansion of the Abraham Accords or perhaps an increasing bid by communist China to influence the region? I don't think communist China is right now in a position to influence the region. It may be after the October 2023 fourth plenary session of the Communist Party, but the Communist Party in China is facing its own meltdown and is fighting for survival. So they're out of the picture in many respects in the short term. They could come back later if the Communist Party survives. Xi Jinping certainly won't. So basically, we're worrying about Turkey facing a lot of the region, not just Israel, but also Iran itself. They'll also be challenging Greece and Turkey. They're challenging Egypt to a large extent. So the big problem going forward is going to be Turkey. And the question is, how are the regional states plus the United States going to cooperate with Israel in containing Turkey? And a lot of them want to. Sounds like a lot for another discussion. But Gregory Copley, as always, thank you so much for joining us. Thank you.