Edwardsson: Trumps ultimatum pressade fram fredsavtalet

Anders Edvarsson a political scientist welcome We have a new peace agreement between Israel and Hamas What indicates that this agreement might hold It is especially because it is very comprehensive and forward-looking Often when it comes to such peace agreements they only address the most urgent and least common denominator To get people to stop shooting at each other so to speak This peace agreement is much more comprehensive and serious if you want to call it that and above all long-term It contains a plan for the long-term future to rebuild Gaza and start a functioning economy And make the situation better for everyone who lives there So it's much more than just a nice "stop shooting now" We'll solve the problems later as usual That gives a big hope On the other hand the more details and the more ambitious you are the more things can go wrong so to speak So this is just the beginning of a process The first step here is to exchange Israel should release some prisoners And Hamas must release the remaining hostages from the October 7 attacks Hey you have 72 hours what indicates that this will happen I think above all it's because Hamas has become almost eradicated Most of their leaders have after all Israel has managed to get them out and so on And I think that if there is any survival instinc At the very least with Hamas both their leaders as individuals and the organization as a collective I think they realize tha For the countless things in this and in President Trump's sharing with this it 's just that now you agree to this otherwise I will take myself and the US back And let the Israelis finish the job with you That means killing all of you Oh that seems to know So now we'll just have to see how long it lasts This is lasting This is people working according to completely different worldviews and moral judgments and perceptions of right and wrong and so on So we'll just have to see if it was just temporary or if they've actually become They are so deep in the mud that they actually accept this It's the key point for another part of the agreement which is also tha Hamas should not have any form of political military or other role in the future The situation on the Palestinian side So Hamas has agreed to this They have in practice agreed not to abolish themselves but to transform Help yourself to a nothing organization If I have any big concerns and the black hats that's exactly it There's nothing wrong with that Hamas is a An impressive organization but they still exist and it will be interesting to see if they actually live up to this What does this peace agreement mean for Trump and what is the media coverage like in the US about it He didn't get the peace prize for that now it's probably no one and Trump He said it himself he didn't expect to get it We'll just have to see now Many of these nominations are apparently for next year rather Then maybe Ukraine will also come into the picture But that's just a minor point details The media coverage here in the US has actually been the channels I have It has been overall very positive Which is quite unusual when comes to something that Trump is involved in There have been isolated cases voices on social media about whether one says leftist there where the more or We hope this peace agreement ends up in the trash Men those are just the kind of wild minds that are always there partially o both sides as well But according to more serious critics I have reluctantly Many I must say but it's just like Trump got through that Europeans would start paying more for NATO and he said yes this one He has actually managed to do it This proves that he is a master negotiator He has always claimed to be This is not the first peace agreement Trump has gotten through How many Fred's agreement is this organization now up to about Yes if I reach correctly it will be number eight since January Some say Trump has been involved in some way He has overestimated his own influence in some of these processes It's quite possible after all he's a politician so it's quite possible that He does it But it's obviously clear and he already said that in his He gave a speech on January 20th stating that he aimed to become a peace president He said that They generally hate war and it falls into a category Historical pattern also applies even though his presidency is unique in this regard He has been president twice It's only one president before him They did it and then came back But it fits into a historical pattern o focus more on their second term as preside foreign policy It depends on various factors Partly because they usually have They have already done what they wanted at home and they have also at least Keep an eye on the history books How will I go about the history that is going to happen Someone who fixed both the USA and the world There's a bit of ego involved Obama was that person The clearest example of that He devoted almost all of his second term In a way that affected foreign policy He lost power in Congress quite early Then foreign policy is the area where the president can do the most on his own without having to involve the opposition party At the same time the US military or the US armed forces as it is now called They are making very large changes and recruitment has also increased significantly since Trump won the election How does this connect Trump is certainly not a pacifist Absolutely not He hates war but he is not a pacifist One of his biggest campaign promises in both 2016 and 2024 was to give the US and the American people a new direction Military to make the world's most combat-effective in all ways with new technology The soldiers also wanted less bureaucracy and less political correctness The Biden administration devoted its four years to using defense To combat climate change and introduce DI and ideas into the Pentagon and such All that stuff is being rolled back now and Trump has made several decisions and received orders to rebuild the military strength of the America The armed forces as it is now called which you are correctly listed under So he is fulfilling his campaign promise here the idea being that even if Trump He does not want an active foreign policy and he hates war The basic idea is the same as what all presidents are called war Democratic and Republican alike For the USA to have a military that is so large So strong and overwhelming that no one would dare attack them or their allies This is the very foundation of this What does this peace agreement in the Middle East mean for the USA and their geopolitical focus If the Middle East could be removed from the map of problems it would be a relief A huge success for the USA but also for Europe which in a way is more closely related The reason is that the USA has some major troop concentrations in the Middle East There are American bases in Saudi Arabia and Iraq It's relative but it's mainly because the Middle East has been like this for so long taking so much time and attention Trump has made it clear that he does not want the US to be involved in this issue down there more than absolutely necessary Hans focus is on East Asia and China Both when it comes to trade and military strategy So now we can finally get rid of the Israel-Palestine conflict at leas It is obviously a huge advancement in the daily agenda It will free up a lot of resources both physical and intellectual To devote oneself to others as Trump believes These are more important and bigger threats from China and similar things The first step now is to exchange hostages for boats They have 72 hours to act At the same time Palestinians are increasingly returning to northern Gaza What is the next step in this plan It's about getting this process back on track so to speak These initial steps release of prisoners from the Israeli side Release of all hostages alive and dead from the Palestinian EU so to speak the LATMOS test now If this works out and everyone is satisfied with this first one so to speak The practical step Then we take this much longer more forward-looking approach Plan on as I mentioned before and get into some new form of governance free from Hamas influence in Palestine Also that the Israelis are beginning to leave them alone so they can rebuild but in economics with its infrastructure and try to build a future down there You all saw this Yes in practice there's just gravel left of Gaza At least what you see on TV Oh he's just said that he sees great potential in the Gaza Strip Long-term both economically and when it comes tourism and other aspects That remains to be seen but tourism at least who would dare go there It's going to be soon I don't know The future is just a blank page in that way Men as they say now it's step one the release of prisoners and hostages and the We take then this longer more forward-looking process Oh that's the one that will become and the release of hostages and prisoners It's easy but building up and starting especially not just building up Infrastructure and construction must also begin to build some form of trust between these two sides Israelis and Palestinians For this war and this uprising call it whatever you want it has been going o In practice since 1948 And there isn't hardly a living person on either side who doesn't know about it I remember the world before this conflict so to speak Oh that's one we have experience from other conflicts Northern Ireland Basque region in Spain India Pakistan that's what I mean archenemy it usually takes many generations of new citizens on both sides to get this and let the hatred fade away And start to see a future together in some way So this is just the absolute beginning