Vem vinner nästa val? Widar Andersson ger sin analys

Welcome heartily to Svenska Times-Monter We were just discussing the cultural canon here with Lars Tävgård Now let's talk about politics and media And it's clear that everyone is interested in knowing Who will win the next election Who better to answer that than Herr Vidar Andersson himself here One of Sweden's best political analysts I consider you and Lotta Gröning as those who really do He can see a bit ahead and tell us what is really happening So this question who will win the election Maybe we should start by asking ourselves why the left bloc lost the last election What did they do or not do maybe The new normal in Swedish politics is that for the first time since the 1920s we now in the 2020s The three major parties again And that means that It is the Liberals who have had to make way for the Sweden Democrats So there are three major parties Then we are in a situation where two of the major ones Need to be on the same side To come up with a sensible government basis Oh there went the Moderates being the first to start a cooperation with the Sweden Democrats Sometimes you end up in a psychological disadvantage Moreover with those issue questions that dominated the campaign So immigration and crime were mainly responsible The Sweden Democrats also had extremely high credibility Larger than both the Moderate Party and the Social Democratic Party According to these measurements that are taken So both the political craftsmanship Two big ones one side And the issues made it that way After the election results last time That's how I thought What the Social Democrats can do best It's about learning from the Sweden Democrats at this point Maybe it wasn't really mature to do something like that No I think it will take a while if it even happens Really to say I know some of mine I have a long background in social democracy and am directed as a person and that' s how I get annoyed when I say But still the Sweden Democrats and the Social Democrats are so similar that it is hard to cooperate People work best when addressing different voter groups different perspectives You have to give and take Sweden Democrats We have many small parties in Sweden and small parties are small because we voters and citizens think they are strange That's why only 4 5 6 or 7 percent vote for these parties Men the Sweden Democrats have broken with that norm Just like the Social Democrats in the 1920s Since then the Social Democrats have been the largest party and so have the Sweden Democrats Served for 15 years in the parliament grew incredibly muc And in the latest opinion polls it is almost at 24 percent And that is because it wants to grow He is practical He changes his mind He can change his opinion on anything Just as we have always done And adapt to the times in some way and therefore I think tha The party that Social Democrats have been criticizing is the Moderates Trying to get in there instead For the Sweden Democrats actually it's that the Sweden Democrats are social democrats Fast they might have been a bit tougher on migration Is that the difference we can see Are they actually the same people Well it's a mix the About 22 percent of those who voted for the Sweden Democrats The 2022 election They previously voted for the Moderate Party And about 17 percent voted for the Social Democrats And the rest came from a few other parties And so the sofa and the one and the other thing And now they are the Sweden Democrats But you know that's So there is a lot that is similar to each other When reading the social democratic history I have an image of Hjalmar Branting here It has been a hundred years since he died And he was the great chief The social democratic chief That's why he brought the Social Democrats under control Removed all too revolutionary elements Made sure the firebrand speakers stepped down To enter into parliamentarism to work together with trade unions to become popular Instead of being on the fringes and the journey that the Sweden Democrats have also made People come from a racist background and managed to collect around 2000 votes the first time they ran So one has gone the long way inwards So you mean actually if I understand you correctly The reason the Social Democrats lost the election is actually because we now have a third party that is large We've never had time before And it was the Moderates Or rather it was the Sweden Democrats She was defeated by the liberals That was what caused the Social Democrats to lose the election Yes that Ulf Kristersson succeeded in doing It was a tough job the party leader before Ulf Kristersson she had to leave just because she hinted at something To be able to greet the Sweden Democrats A little committee and such She could behave a bit more politely I wish you could go It was so extremely charged Both within the Moderates and within the Social Democrats So how one should behave and that is why the Sweden Democrats could grow for all important reasons Folkliga issues Against begging for regulated immigration Harsher punishments Gang criminals With S and M What was most important for them was to think the opposite of the Sweden Democrats so they got all the important positions And it took care of it and grew it And then there's Jimmy Åkesson Who is a fantastic party leader So how is it now going forward How do you stand What will the strategy be For the Social Democrats How do you relate to the Sweden Democrats What is it that one does He will now set it Yes it is that Clearly the main opposition is that the Sweden Democrats are the most dangerous Which they are We have a social democratic perspective It is they who can devour us If we don't take care of ourselves The Moderates have another So another background and therefore it would be easier to work with for the social democrats It's not that the strategy is not the one that has previously proven to be wrong Yes Men when a man tries to have a clear view it is common in many small towns Now that means that the social democrats are cooperating with the moderates especially in big cities like Linköping which is close to where I am Acting and doing That has come up in the daytime Because there are three major parties Do you want a chance Otherwise the Social Democrats might pick up a very strange government program With the parties Center and the Left But these ones who think completely differently on important issues It won't turn out well We've been governing that way for eight years We are losing the budget battle we have no majority we are confused and messy do they remember this now the government we have now They have a stable majority in the parliament Are they in agreement Then they can get it through And that's why they're eyeing it Social Democrats of the Moderates If you that is they will never admit it No but There is that So Is it realistic to believe it will happen It depends entirely on the election results So it won't First the donors must say their names And that's what all parties usually say But this year or 2026 Are there more chances than before Because it's coming Right now the Moderates are a bit shaky or shaky and shaky 17-18 percent of men And if one were to join forces With the Social Democrats Then Magdalena Andersson would become The prime minister because it is a much larger party And so The Moderates will of course stick to On the line that one has now Here you are the prime minister and you have become a unifying party and you would like to make it four more years Oh what do you think will happen now Let's say the Civic Block wins again and then we know that Jimmy Åkesson Has he said tha They want to be in the government If they become the largest party Which one can perhaps draw That conclusion sometimes I saw in any case the investigations Novus is here then maybe What do you think You mean about So most things speak for itself When looking at the current opposition figures Again I just want to say it once more Don't nag but when there are three major parties then two are On the other hand and therefore one should count their numbers So the Moderate Party and the Sweden Democrats have about 40% and the Social Democrats have 34-35% So as The country is now in the hands of the election results the liberals and the Christian Democrats have crossed the threshold So I would be extremely surprised if Ulf Kristersson cannot continue with the government in other words it kind of depends on it What these small parties do whether they cross the threshold or not is something we'll have to see It's being played out here depending on What happens to them we will see Maybe a new constellation Or the old one continues Yes exactly and that is possible After the selection one should remember Social Democrats Moderate Party After the election It may be a clear one Results are already on election night But it will be very close But it is unclear That it has several possible outcomes Depending on which two Partygoer big one who is on the same side So it can become a drawn-out autumn How big do you think the risk is then To see this as we have seen before To see this rhetoric From the Social Democrats As for the Sweden Democrats they can attract more voters to switch Social Democrats to Sweden Democrats For the most part in many ways Is it really the same voter And maybe one doesn't like this rhetoric The harsh rhetoric we've seen that before Yes I think that's exactly what's happening right now So it's the case that voters are moving Between the Moderate Party and the Sweden Democrats Basically I think that as always People who move slightly between different parties But I think the big gains And the losses when it comes to The Social Democrats and the Sweden Democrats are already made I would say The Social Democrats have also gained many new voters just like Roasted o Left the bourgeoisie or something else because they disliked the Sweden Democrats and switched sides So it's like a shift I think there's more legitimacy now for the leadership of the Social Democrats Attack the Sweden Democrats Greater support in the membership ranks For those who don't like They have basically left it alone So actually we can say that the major parties They have what they have so what it's about is whether the small ones can get past the barrier Yes you could say that Then depending on Sweden Democrats have a Another social democratic Gen that is to say that one grows I was on that at the beginning And has a growth The other parties bounce up and down a bit The Social Democrats grew To 73 74 Then it goes down But while the Sweden Democrats began to grow in the late 80s and then it took off Otherwise the political landscape is exactly the same The Left is there 5-6 the Christian Democrats are there 5-6-7 The Liberals 3-4-5 No major movements Just look up or down Without that is The battle stands here about the herd's power Between the Social Democrats and the Sweden Democrats there are those who say that the conservatives have waited a bit to come forward The major parties now before the election To make some changes As one might expect populist or whatever one wants to call it It can happen so to speak Do you think there's something in that The tempo starts to increase Regarding different proposals And so on I always see it before an election year And if you want to sharpen it and get ahead but that's the same question When looking at the SOM institute here in Gothenburg at the university which measures the major trust surveys With so many people participating you can see that these are the big questions Crime is by far the top issue So it's a kind of discomfort Public discomfort With crime So the fear both Mass shootings but especially when Gang violence The shooting the bombing So it's a It's more than just a question of missing persons so that's why it's like that now the shootings have decreased by a third Approximately every two years But when the big institutions Ask the questions to us ordinary people Then we answer as if It's just like usual So for the uncertainty We can't keep up All these now it's less Now it's higher but we have placed ourselves in a picture of it being an unsafe and uncertain country Oh that could really punish this government you know You haven't succeeded yet even though you've done quite a lot So but these are the big questions crime but how long does one need to govern a country to I can be heard all the way over there How long does one have to rule A country in order to be able to change it The country I mean a term office maybe not give much no it's just in diversity there are very slow processes I know this government has spoken about making it easier to deport and harder to Granting citizenship Everything is running as usual It's very hard to expel and yesterday Was there any murderer who has obtained Swedish citizenship A month before And it's certainly harder to deport It takes a very long time The government has So very trusting People Especially because The Minister of Justice Jonas Strömmer Poul Jonsson Minister of Defense Internal and external security It may be very close to a war Men one can see how the Russians are acting they are violating borders every day challenging NATO challenging West challenging democracy And how we will respond to that It is hard to say Oh well we'll return to the first question here who will win the election I would say like this if I were to put any money I never do that but right now it's speaking The seat for Ulf Kristersson continues So when looking at So reporting on opinion polls I think I'm childish in some way They just take Each party on its own you have to look We have three major And two of them are on the same side right now and they haven' t lost since the election day together they have their 40% and So it depends on the small parties or if something else happens it could become the largest or the moderate party A lot can happen Men the stall tips just now I guess I'll say that it's that they continue that was Vidar's that's the track ball that they are bourgeois continuing We'll get back to that You mentioned some media here at the beginning And you have been running Folkbladet for several years Folkbladet I went to the grave For those who don't know A newspaper in Norrköping's style Social Democratic And Can You Tell Me A Bit About The Process What Happened Many People Know That Many Media Turns off today maybe reduces Publication days number of days So maybe stops using paper Some newspapers have progressed further in the process than others What happened how come it suddenly happened Puts down a newspaper that existed for 120 years That newspaper Yes it was started in 1905 but Has been around for the entire duration of its existence It was almost a disaster and a catastrophe no money I Norrköping there is a much larger newspaper that is 10 times bigger Norrköping's newspapers good newspaper And It's very hard to make it big This started once without any money And went bankrupt Twenty-two to twenty-three years ago but then the Norrköping newspapers Folkbladet bought us so we continued to come out during this time Oh well we entered a modern device a new printing press professional handling of things and then we could Survive a little over 20 years Thanks to But towards the end here We had barely 3000 preparations And It could So It went quickly We were among the oldest preparers In Sweden Much more than a hundred years old Older than twenty years old And then it moves slowly But surely in a direction Those were fantastic years That's really fun Yes you know Yes exactly I'm doing it in Swedish At Times here we have done it A bit different from other newspapers We have bet on our newspaper And you can take a copy Free here and read it and see what you Oh well we'll make it so that the newspaper is available for the weekend Most people don't have time to read a whole newspaper Every day Men until the weekend maybe one has a bit more time And then one can read the daily news Online or in our app We have today just over We have 10 000 subscribers and we're happy about that We have been printing the newspaper for five years now So the journey has gone incredibly Quickly and the When a newspaper comes out people ask who is behind this Who owns this newspaper where do the money come from And I have a very simple and quick answer It's me it's coming from me So it's a very simple answer But now we're going around on Actually subscription revenues And media support And it was just this change With media support it was earlier A so-called press suppor What it was really about was the number of subscribers the more subscribers you have the more money you get but then it changed So now building the new media support actually the new media support is based on the total wage cost in the newspaper Oh well this is in this change then where the new media support actually focuses on regional and local journalism Many newspapers have disappeared Especially many national newspapers We have however Grown stronger and now have the epithet From the media support agency to be Of particular importance for media diversity That is why we get the new Media support even though we are a national newspaper so you can of course subscribe to us wherever you live in Sweden What would you like to say about the development From the media what is actually happening I am quite hopeful I just want to say one thing the new media support that became the final death sentence for us the old media suppor Pay extra for a small newspaper Because it was the Social Democrats and the Center Party With support from the Moderate Party I also when Svenska Dagbladet also received Press Support in the 1980s they agreed to give the small newspaper extra money Center newspaper and Social newspaper Svenska Dagbladet has now been shut down With its support actually They won't get the new media support They only receive a transition support Which means the support is gradually reduced Over a five-year period and they receive One eighth of what was previously received Less each year And we got about a tenth maybe If you count employees we had six employees That doesn't add up to much money But as I said it was a wonderful time One cannot live forever Folkbladet It existed for a long time And had very many loyal and faithful subscribers Men nu ser man ju a The big one is obviously Digitalization Having digital subscribers And it's quite a long transition there For we live a long time and one gets used to the newspaper And the experience of the newspaper Is completely different So I think that It's going to be very interesting That you are betting so much on the newspaper When it comes once a week Once a week Exactly in the paper But it takes a whole week There are many texts Among other things you write in the newspaper We are happy for this Thank you very much And thank you to the audience Thank you very 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