Signs of civil strife in the Chinese military

Okay, so let's start with the explosions in Wang Shandong. It took place on September 12th around 900 p.m. People not only in Wang, but also in Jao and other parts of the province or even nearby provinces saw an unbelievable sight. A bright torch-like object racing along a parabolic path. And it's much faster than a normal plane. and witnesses saw another glowing object, a smaller one, shoot up from the ground and quickly um close in and then there's a blinding flash and a thunderous explosion. Um some people even said that they could smell burning in the air and then 5 minutes later it happened it again. This is the second one. And then they're from different angles close up. Okay. So, because it was only 9 at at night, many people saw it and then word started to spread and the event quickly topped social media's trending list. Chinese media widely reported it. When reporters called Won's Emergency Management Bureau, they first said they had no information, then changed their tune to say they'd received a report, but hadn't gotten anything from the investigation. So, to this date, neither the military nor civilian authorities have given a formal explanation. Some state media tried to avoid naming Wayang, the city, in their reporting and only mentioned Shandong province. Uh, the official silence fueled speculation. Was it a weapons test, a missile intercept, or even a UFO shootown? Some even suggested the PLA intercepted two North Korean missiles. Um, but that was highly unlikely. Now, some netizens did their research and dug up a notice from China Maritime Safety Administration the day before. So on September the 11th, the administration warned that from the afternoon of of September the 12th to the noon on the 14th, there will be live fire uh military drills in two designated areas of the Bohigh area. This is the map that netizens drew up based on the the the definition. People plotted the official coordinates on a map and compare them to the explosion locations. Um, so this is the map. There's a zone A and then there's a zone B. And then they compare that to the actual explosions and they matched the interceptions happened in the coastal B zone with with launch points on shore. So that makes the event a planned live fire exercise by the PLA and not a UFO shootown or the North Korean missile interception. But this planned missile drill looked very odd. In the past, the PLA usually conducted missile tests in sparsely populated regions, normally in the west in western China or out at sea. Uh doing a live missile test over a dense city like Wayon is unheard of. So people wonder why why is that? Why did this CCP do that? Um, state media's intentional omission of Wang might have given us a hint. So, Wayfang was once a major base of the old China military region and home to the 26th group army after Xiinping's 2016 military reform. The 26 was reorganized into the 80th group army with Wang remaining its headquarters. So the 80th is a modern combined arms force with units for air defense, aviation, and electronic warfare, including SAM systems designed for low and medium altitude interception capable of downing planes, helicopters, drones or cruise missiles. So the capabilities of this unit based in WA match the scenes witnessed in the city on the evening in the evening of the 12th. So here's the real question. If this was really a scheduled drill, why would they hold it so closely to the city but kept it as a secret? Because this risked unnecessary public panic. Remember, Wave is only 260 miles or what, 400 kilometers away from Beijing. So, isn't that dangerous? Well, that's precisely the intention. So, my take or some analysts take is this. This live fire drill wasn't meant for external audiences such as the US and its allies in the Pacific. It was meant for internal audiences. Think about it. Won sits on Bhai Bay, China's inner sea, far from the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea. So showing muscle here won't get any reaction or attention from the United States, Japan or Taiwan. So it's not for external deterrence. So you may say, well, maybe it's aimed at pumping up nationalism at home. That doesn't fit either. If Beijing wants propaganda value, they'd stage it on the Taiwan front line like Fuian, which is right next to the Taiwan Strait, or near the South China Sea next to the Philippines. That's where they that's where they can stir up tension. By contrast, staging something in England way in a way that spooks the public points to one purpose and one purpose only to intimidate internal political opponents in Beijing. On September 12th, it wasn't just way showing military movement in Tangan. In broad daylight, large numbers of tanks and armored vehicles drove straight through um city streets. Oh, here we go. Yeah. So, this was um was taken from Tangan. Now, Tangan is only 90 miles away from Beijing and it's one of the bases for the 82nd group army under the central theater command. In residents across multiple districts uh reported a massive boom sound or explosion sound around 10:30 in the morning on that day. And the shock was felt many miles away shaking houses and windows. So let's put the map together. Beijing, Shijadang, Tangan, and Wang, they're all in a cluster in that area, right? So all the military movements or or the drills are right. You can see that the three city Beijing is the top left one. Um the top right one is Tang Shan. Wan is the lower right one and then Shijadajan is the lower left. So you see all three cities surrounded Beijing. So that's where all the military activities took place on September the 12th and they're so far away from Taiwan. Now Wayang's 80th army belongs to the northern theater. Tangan's second 82nd army belongs to the central theater. and Shiadang is the headquarters of the central theater command which fields around 600,000 troops around Beijing. So all of these activities seem to aim at one place Beijing or those who are running Beijing. Both the north and central theaters are widely believed to be firmly controlled or firm or are firmly under the control of Jang Yuan. The central theater has long been rumored to be restiffive under Xiinping. On the same day, um, these Beijing shield PLA formations showed power in unusual, very public ways. Missiles, shots in the sky, tanks on the streets, and live testing of ammunitions. So, the message is loud and clear to any restless individuals in Jonangai. behave or you will be removed at any time. These live PLA drills serve as a stern warning not to outside enemies but to internal enemies. Those loyal to Xiinping don't even think about making a move. Before the wave on missile mystery even cleared and another bombshell hit last Saturday that's September 13th the day after actually the eastern theater command pushed a provocative song on wechathat called plant the flag of victory on the island of Taiwan. So it was a threeinut song released um by the Eastern Theater Command and it said that they want to use the song to forge courage, use oath to fire up combat skill and use uh the song to rally breakthrough power. The video also shows amphibious landings, island seizure drills, and missile launches. and with repeated shots of Taiwan 101 and other Taiwan landmarks. Now, you know, the PLA's Eastern theater is the one responsible for Taiwan operations. So, the release of such a provocative song caused wide speculation. Meanwhile, there are also widespread claims that inside China about the CCP's plan to take Taiwan before 2027 by force. So, put together the visuals, the music, the movements, and the timing. The message is very clear. It is a warning and war mobilization targeting Taiwan. But here's the question. Is it real? Who is behind it? Okay, so the Eastern Theater Command was the unit in charge of Taiwan operation and it used to be in the hand of the missing vice chairman. This theater uh is comprised of the 71st, 72nd and 73rd group armies. It's said that the song was published by the political department of the 92nd brigade in the 73rd group army. Um now the 73rd group army is probably the most loyal PLE unit to Xiinping. It was formerly the famous 31st group army in Fuian which is Xiinping's most loyal base where many of his officers rose. So that is why the 73rd group army is closely tied to Xiinping because its predecessor was the 31st group army. So it's not random that a brigade published this provocative war song. This is clearly the message from those still loyal to Xi Jinping and the song is their work. Now Xiinping we know has used the Taiwan unification as justification for his third term and possibly fourth term. Now he's likely to resort to war to escape his doomed fate of stepping down at the 21st party Congress. If he starts a war, he would be a wartime leader ruling ruling indefinitely. Um, so some say he he's timid and won't actually start a war, but I think he will use the optics of a war to justify his power. And that's what the song the the releasing of the song was for. The release of the song may be a direct response from the Shei faction in the military to the J faction's live fire drill the night before. Now, think about it. If Janua is the de facto leader in the military and isn't interested in starting a war right away, she's loyalist will keep stirring the pot to make things difficult for him. So this is actually very dangerous for the PLA and for everyone else. Uh war a war can be accidentally set off set up or set off. So to summarize my point, the activities we've seen in the past week from different PLA theaters are driven by different factions with different objectives. So are these signs of armed friction? In the end, the missiles over Won and the tanks in Tangan or the three minute war song weren't just noise. They were messages. One camp fluxed around Beijing. The other waved the Taiwan banner. And if power in Beijing now depends on who scares who more, what happens when fear misfires? Senseless wars don't always start with a declaration. They start with miscalculation and incidents.