Does A September Surprise Lie In Store For Stocks? | Lance Roberts
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LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THE THOUGHTFUL MONEY FALL CONFERENCE AT https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference
Historically, September is the cruelest month for stocks.
October is little better.
Are odds good that history will repeat, especially with valuations as extreme as they currently are?
Or, will the party continue on through the end of the year?
Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the probabilities, as well as the latest market technical analysis, recession risk, the likeliest next steps for the Federal Reserve, and where bond yields are headed.
For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Update.
#federalreserve #marketcorrection #bondyields
0:00 - Intro
0:44 - Taylor Swift’s economic impact and engagement speculation
5:37 - Markets turning into an entertainment-driven casino
8:39 - Thoughtful Money Fall Conference announcement, Sven Henrich joins
9:27 - Nvidia’s earnings reaction, market implications
12:56 - Nvidia’s valuation and AI cycle sustainability
16:33 - Cem Karsan’s bubble thesis and Michael Lebowitz’s momentum report
21:55 - Buy-the-dip strategy and moral hazard concerns
27:09 - Signs of market correction and risk management
32:16 - Potential lost decade in markets, historical context
38:09 - Passive indexing’s impact on market dynamics
40:39 - Active management for navigating a lost decade
46:32 - Economic slowdown indicators, PCE data, and GDP revisions
51:21 - Fed’s Jackson Hole speech, jobs, and housing concerns
55:19 - AI and infrastructure spending as potential growth drivers
58:30 - Nvidia’s client concentration risks
1:01:25 - Fed rate cuts and bond yield expectations
1:04:29 - Recession probability vs. economic growth outlook
1:08:31 - Lisa Cook controversy and Fed politicization concerns
1:16:58 - Risks of a politicized Fed and legal system weaponization
1:22:30 - Gold as a liquidity source for stocks
1:24:29 - S&P technical analysis, negative divergences
1:29:09 - RIA’s recent trades and portfolio strategy
1:29:54 - Lance Roberts’ personal update on wife’s cancer diagnosis
1:37:29 - Importance of relationships and resilience in adversity
1:43:44 - MD Anderson’s exceptional care and support
1:46:29 - Thoughtful Money Fall Conference reminder and wrap-up
1:48:30 - Where to follow Lance Roberts’ work
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