Who’s Really In Control of China?

[Music] If Xi Jinping has been purged, as rumors would have you believe, who's really controlling China? Welcome to China Uncensored. I'm Chris Chapel. You know, when I started China Uncensored over a decade ago, I never imagined there would be a day when everyone and their brother would be starting YouTube channels about China. Back in my day, the internet was nothing but cat memes and dirty videos. Now, it's all about China and dirty videos. What can I say? I'm a trends setter. But let's just say not all China analysis is created equal. Xi Jinping is going to be purged in 14 days, 52 minutes, and 35 seconds. H, it's actually pretty good. Maybe I should use it. But unapologetic clickbait aside, there are persistent rumors flying that Xi Jinping has lost power and been purged and replaced. A few weeks ago, I did an in-depth episode analyzing those rumors. Check it out for background sometime, but you don't need it for this episode. All you need to know is that some people think she has been purged, which is the first Purge movie I'd actually want to see. So, I thought it'd be fun to look into how a communist dictator gets and stays in power. Don't try this at home, kids. Actually, no. Do try this at home. Let me know in the comments how it goes. So, what do I look at to understand if she truly holds the reigns of power over the CCP? It's whoever controls, as it's called in China, the pen, the gun, and the knife handle. In other words, he who controls the propaganda, the military, and internal security. That's China's vast network of police. Fun fact, the CCP spends more on internal security than the military, which just goes to show that the CCP considers the Chinese people the biggest threat to their power. So, as a communist dictator, your grip on power is firm if you control the pen, the gun, and the knife handle. It's easy to see why controlling the military and domestic security would be important. After all, Mount Zadong said political power grows out of the barrel of a gun. He wasn't a nice man. But propaganda is also a crucial aspect of control and understanding that is key to understanding Xi Jinping's current position. Here's a good example. After Mao's disastrous great leap forward that was more of a 30 million people starving to death forward, he found himself politically sidelined. But because of Mao's control over the propaganda apparatus, he was able to sidestep the central party and launch the Cultural Revolution, which elevated Mao to communist godhood, while also plunging China into a decade of absolute chaos. And if you know anything about Mao's proclivities, you know it's the Nurgal kind of godhood. Propaganda continued to be important even after Mao died. His successor was Huagua Fun. If you're less familiar with that name, it's because he didn't last that long. Dang Xiaoping, despite being purged three times, quickly replaced Hua as China's paramount leader because he had the loyalty of the military and controlled the state-run media where he promoted his political line. Now, let me tell you about a CCP leader who did not control the pen, the gun, or the knife handle. Hu Jin Tao. He succeeded Jang Zamin who had officially stepped down as head of the Communist Party in 2002. But Jang still controlled the pen, the gun, and the knife handle either directly or through proxies he promoted. In fact, Jang used all three for the cornerstone of his tenure, the persecution of Fallen Gong. He wasn't a nice man. But so even though who was the party's general secretary for 10 years, he never actually had much real control. That was a problem for Xi Jinping when he came to power in 2012. So right away she began his now infamous anti-corruption campaign. According to this recent report from US National Intelligence, in the ensuing years, the campaign has investigated and found guilty nearly 5 million officials at all levels of government. And shockingly, a lot of them were Jang Zamin's people. First, she went after internal security, purging top Gang officials like Joe Yong Kong. In 2016, she started sweeping military reforms that again saw his people promoted and Jang's people eliminated. But the propaganda side of things was a different matter. Folks, there's a lot more of this episode to come. But if you like this kind of deep dive into what's really going on in China, you've got to subscribe to my premium website, chinaunensored.tv. That's where you'll see episodes and live streams we can't put on YouTube. And if you want to support China uncensored, buying a membership is the best way you can. It's just the price of a bag of coffee. It's chinaunensored.tv. So now that she had purged Jang's people in the gun and the knife handle and appointed his own people, there was the matter of the pen, that is the propaganda department. Propaganda was still overseen by Jang's people. Politboroough Standing Committee member Leo Yun Shan and Central Propaganda Department head Leo Chi Bao. And it was very interesting how they worked to undermine she. They couldn't outright criticize she and staterun media. So in 2016 they did this. [Music] Ah, yes. The earworm that makes me want to recreate that last scene from the movie Pie. So, if that seems a little over the top, that was the point. It makes she look like he's trying to start a cult of personality, which ever since Mao did that was verboten in China. I mean, all leaders want that for themselves, but they have to pretend not to want it. So, subtlety is the name of the game. She was pretty quick to shut down the she da da craze. When you're too cringey for Xi Jinping, that's when you know you've gone too far. Just a year later, these two were gone and she had put his own people in their place. And ever since, Chinese propaganda just hasn't made me want to dance. [Music] talking about. All right. Xi Jinping now had control of the party's pen. And boy, you could tell there were non-stop campaigns promoting Shei's personal ideology, the humbly named Xi Jinping thought. And Xi Jinping made the front page of the People's Daily a lot, which is apparently just subtle enough. Frequent flyer on the front page of the paper. Fine. Catchy jingle. You've gone too far. Okay, so this sounds like a guy who's got a firm grip on the party's pen, gun, and knife handle. So why are people saying he's been purged and is imminently going to step down? A lot of it had to do with this article in staterun Shininoa from last year in 2024 titled Xi Jinping the Reformer. It was 10,000 characters long and supposed to be about all the reforms since she came to power, but it was actually pretty subversive. It talked about how she was quote unquote inheriting and promoting Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening up policies. Now, she has been doing everything he can to distance himself from Dung. She isn't an inheritor. He's a trailblazer, or at least that's how he wants everyone to see him. The article also emphasized she's authoritarianism and ideology and portrayed that as a regression from Dung's liberalization. The take many had was that anti-shi forces were using the party's pen to express their growing discontent towards China's core leader. And if that were the case, that would mean she's grip on the pen had slipped. Man, don't you just hate it when you loan someone a pen and they don't give it back and then use it to try and suddenly try to overthrow you? But the problem with that idea is that for all intents and purposes, she still has his people in pretty much all positions of power, including in the media. What's much more likely is that whoever wrote and edited the article had what's called low political awareness. In general, communists aren't known for self-awareness, which is why so many party members get purged. Remember, Chinese communism is all about the right level of subtlety, and that's really easy to get wrong. So, the people who put out the article could have mistakenly thought that they were praising Xi by assuming that all the party leaders with their perfect and flawless vision for China are all internally consistent, not just a way for whoever's in charge to show off that yes, they're the new guy in charge. Dung and she are part of a tradition of glorious Chinese leadership. Of course, they'd be on the same page. Communism is hard. So hard it's literally never been tried. That is how people get purged. And indeed, this article quickly disappeared. She's propaganda chief, Lee Shoui, probably missed the problematic article because everyone was too busy with all the propaganda activities going on for the third plenum, an important meeting of top communist leaders happening at the time. It is possible whoever wrote the article actually did harbor resentment for Shei. But that would be a one-off thing because after this debacle, Lee Shueri seems to have tightened things up, which is why there hasn't been a repeat since also probably why Lee Shui hasn't been purged. According to Sino Insider, a risk consultancy that specializes in elite Chinese politics, had she truly lost power, as some have speculated, and there is an ongoing effort to ease him out of power gradually, then there would be a coordinated effort in state and party media to shift the CCP away from she's political line and promote something else in its place. That has not happened. She is still going strong in all party media. And not just there in December last year at a polit burough democratic life meeting on the in-depth study and implementation of Xi Jinping thought she individually commented on each polit member's remarks and offered his guidance. It was not a meeting of equals. They had to submit to the party's core leader. There were so many people bending over. May well have been a scoliosis support group. But if you've been paying attention, you've heard that over the past couple of months, many of China's top generals, in particular, Meow Hua and Hoe Dong, Xi Jinping allies, have been purged. Why? Well, some people claim that top general and Central Military Commission vice chairman Jang Yosha is responsible for the purges because he's allegedly now in control of the military instead of she and he's supported by party elders. So juicy, so spicy, like a jalapeno smoothie. The problem is, at least on the surface, Jang continues to talk up she Xi Jinping thought and she as the core. And in state media broadcasts, remember the party's pen. He's always shown dutifully taking notes alongside other officials on the sidelines while she is always front and center. Also, she is set to host a big military parade in September. None of this sounds like she has lost control of the military. But so why the purges? Well, there are possible explanations that don't involve a secretive conspiracy to oust Shei. Corruption is rampant in the Chinese Communist Party. That's why she could make his anti-corruption campaign a reasonable cover for his political purges. His own people are probably just as corrupt as anyone else. But if they're caught and she has personally vetted them, he may be in a position where he has to purge them. He could also feel that maybe they've proven not to be quite as loyal as he thought. I mean, being corrupt after he vouched for them, how could they do something so terrible as getting caught? So, here's what I'd look out for if I were you. Number one, some are saying she will officially step down this month during an annual meeting of top party leaders. If that doesn't happen, you can discount a lot of these rumors. And if she hosts that military parade in September, you can also safely assume his grip on power is pretty secure. But the big test will come in 2027 at the 21st Party Congress. If she gets what they technically call another 5-year term, she is sitting pretty. Of course, China is facing a ton of crises right now, any of which could balloon into large-scale protests or riots. Because even though the pen is mightier than the sword, it's still just a pen. You know, protesters with iPhones could be more powerful than the pen or the sword. And that could lead to the fall of Xi Jinping and maybe even the Communist Party itself. Of course, if you want that kind of deep dive into what's really going on in China that you can't get from some random China YouTube page, click this button to head over to chinaunensored.tv and join. You'll get in-depth episodes and live streams you won't see on YouTube. And you'll be supporting Chinaensored for just the price of a bag of coffee because YouTube is trying to run us out of business with demonetization and secretly unsubscribing people. Thanks for watching. Once again, I'm Chris Chapel. See you next time.