Trump’s Tariffs Are Back — What This Means for Investors

In today's video, I want to give you an important update on President Trump's tariffs. And I want to share this information with you from the perspective of an investor. So whether you're invested in the stock market or crypto or precious metals, this is very important information to know. So here's the situation. April 2nd was supposed to be Liberation Day, the official start of the reciprocal tariffs. Okay, but then President Trump delayed it to April 9th. And April 9th comes around and the reciprocal tariffs, they go into effect for a few hours. And then this triggers a problem in the bond markets. So President Trump said, and this is his quote, the bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. People were getting a little queasy. So Trump paused the tariffs again. So this time for 90 days, pushing it to July 9th. And then the reciprocal tariffs got pushed back until August 1st. And now they pushed it back again until August 7th. So the excuse, well, this time, customs and border protection needs more time to update their systems. So the big question is, will President Trump taco again? So it's fair to ask because we've gone from April 2nd to April 9th to July 9th, August 1st, and now August 7th. So, I mean, I would say like, if you're going to do this, like, let's just get the show on the road and stop chickening out. So the only thing that's going to make President Trump chicken out again is if there's problems in the bond markets. So specifically the 30-year treasury yield. But leading up to August 7th, the 30-year yield has been quiet. So, of course, this could change on a dime on the 7th or a few days after. But as of now, there's no reason for another delay. So once the tariffs going to affect, all eyes should be on the 30-year yield. Okay, so I want to give you a summary of my outlook, and it's very straightforward. If there's a spike in the interest rate on the 30-year yield, that's going to cause President Trump to taco. But if there is no spike in the yield for the 30-year yield, then again, there's going to be no reason for him to chicken out. So there's going to be no taco. So I'm going to give you two scenarios. So the first one is, if the yield does spike, then that's going to cause the stock market to go down. And that's basically going to be a repeat of what happened in April near Liberation Day. So if that does happen, then that would be a great buying opportunity for stocks, for crypto, for precious metals, because Trump will have to delay or postpone or just undo the tariffs. And that would cause the stock market to reverse and go back up. And then you have a second scenario where the yield does not spike up, but stocks still do fall. Okay, so in this situation, it's all about the debt market. It's all about the bond market. So if the debt market doesn't start crashing, but the stock market does, then President Trump's not going to chicken out to a point. It's going to be, we're going to discuss this further in a separate video, but the S&P 500, they're not going to let it fall more than approximately 20%. That's the rough estimate. The NASDAQ can go down more, but the S&P 500 is generally going to be capped at a 20% loss. Okay, so with that being said, I want to give you my approach. If the 30-year yield spikes up and the stock market drops, then I'll buy the dip heavier than usual. So I may even be inclined to buy short-term call options, nothing crazy, but the risk reward in that type of situation, as you know, it could definitely be worth it. Now, if the yield stays stable and the stock market drops, then I'll stay patient. That's just a situation of dollar cost averaging. And if the market goes up, then you don't have to do anything in that type of situation. You just enjoy the ride. And I just want to say that the reason why we're paying most attention to the 30-year yield is because this is the long-term IOU from the U.S. government that the Federal Reserve has the least control over when it comes to interest rates. So yeah, the Federal Reserve, they can manipulate short-term interest rates, I mean, they're going to lean hard on that next year. But the 30-year, I mean, the Federal Reserve, they would have to take extreme measures to intervene, like buying the bonds directly. I mean, they certainly can do that, but that would send a very bad message to the rest of the world. Now, I do want to point this out because I found this very interesting. So this chart, it shows how much tariff revenue was collected in June. So the U.S. government brought in $26.6 billion in tariff revenue in one month. So that is a lot, historically speaking. But to put that into context, the U.S. government spends $580 billion per month. So it's still, you know, it's great, but it's still peanuts in comparison to what the government is spending. And don't forget that tariffs are a tax on Americans. So initially, importers absorbed most of the cost. They didn't want to raise prices right away and risk losing customers to the competitors. But now retailers are moving together. They're, so to say, they're crossing the street at the same time, which means that prices are going to rise. So you can expect goods inflation to show up to accelerate in August and September in the CPI reports. And there's something else that you should understand, that these tariffs are a weaponization of the U.S. dollar. That's going to accelerate de-dollarization, which is not an overnight event. That's a process. But it's happening and the U.S. dollar is going to weaken, and it's going to weaken faster. And I just want to say that if you want to measure the strength of the U.S. dollar, don't look at the Dixie, don't look at the DXY, unless you're trading currencies, like one fiat to another, because the DXY, that just compares the U.S. dollar to other fiat currencies, the euro, the yen, the pound, etc. I mean, it's basically like comparing dog poop to cat poop. So the real test is, how many dollars does it take to buy something real, like an ounce of gold, a bitcoin, food? By those measures, the dollar is devaluing fast and tariffs are making it worse. So that's why I've been so focused on investing in real assets. Okay, so that is how I'm looking at the current situation as an investor. I'm looking at the bond markets, and I'm prepared for volatility. So let me know what you think. I look forward to reading your comments. Thank you for the support, and I wish you a very nice day. Take care.