San Diego Real Estate Market Update - July 2025

High interest rates and summer heat are keeping buyers off the street right now. Stay tuned for our San Diego County real estate market update. Let's check out the month-over-month numbers and then we'll zoom out to look at long-term trends. All right, here's a chart showing what happened between May and June of 2025. Okay, looking at the month-over-month numbers, new listings actually down from May to June 4.5 percent and we're actually seeing that trend continuing into July. Pending sales off 8.8 percent and that's why I say the heat and the rates are keeping buyers off the street. Pending sales definitely sagged between May and June and we're hoping those tick up soon. Closed sales off three and a half almost well 3.6 percent. Days on market are up 9.4 percent. Median price is down only 0.5 percent month-over-month, just a tiny bit, although that trend has kind of been developing so we're now seeing that starting to fall off a bit. And the number of homes for sale between May and June rose 6.2 percent even though new listings were down. Pending sales were down even more so that increased the number of homes for sale. All right, let's check out some long-term trends. Yes. And let's get started with new listings. Yes, new listings are where everything starts, so that's where we start. Now looking at new listings for detached homes between 2024 and 2025 June, almost identical. Same with attached properties, although year-to-date new listings are up in both categories. And then when we look historically, Dave has been kind enough to add. Oh yeah, just one little note. So we get these charts from SDAR and you can see along the bottom the numbers are kind of small and hard to see, so you can show us, but I put extra labels for the most recent years. Yes, so the most recent years are labeled. This goes all the way back to 2012, but you can see this new listings were very reliable in terms of numbers up until 2019 when things started to slough off a bit. Then in 2020, 21 and 22. I'm going to interrupt you one more time, but just a note about this chart is that when it goes up the peak, that's almost always in the summertime. So there's a very seasonal trend that you can see as far as new listings and also sales volume. Pricing doesn't quite follow these seasonal trends. It's not a given that you're going to get the highest price in the summer, but volume, new listings, you can definitely see a seasonal trend, even though in the last few years it has been a flattened out some. Yes, always we seem to peak in the summertime with new listings. So 2021 and 22 had their own character and then 23 was the lowest number of new listings and the lowest number of sales in more than 30 years. We started to come back up in 24 and 25, but activity, as you can see, based on history is quite low at the moment. All right, let's talk about closed sales. Okay, yes, looking at closed sales, those are down just a tiny bit from last June. Basically the same for the last three years, both attached and detached. And year to date, we are right on pace with the last two years as far as closed sales go. And again, we have this sort of normal pattern that had developed between 2012 and 2019 and then things start to change, although 20 and 21 were strong in terms of closed sales. But when you have less new listings, you're going to have less closed sales. So that's what you see starting to happen here in 22, 23, 24 and now into 2025. You can't sell it until you list it. That's right. It's just an overall lack or lull in real estate activity when you look at the overall recent history of real estate sales in San Diego. And this affects just so many sectors of the economy. It's not just us. It's not just lenders. There's just so many people that work when homes get sold. So this trend is not overall favorable to the general economy. All right, well, let's talk about median prices. Everyone wants to know, are prices softening? Well, let's check it out. Yes, let's check this out. So actually, median price is down almost a point for detached homes from last June to this June. And then again, a little more for attached properties. Year to date, median price is still up 1.6 percent. However, the current level of inventory paired with the current level of pending sales is starting to cause median price to drop off a bit. Although, you know, this point on the graph is certainly higher than, you know, it continues to go up, but we do have these ups and downs and it tends to go down or at least over the last three years, it goes down in the summertime, June, July, August, September, and then we start to see it picking back up into new year. So it'll be interesting to see what happens this year. However, just based on everything that's been going on, I did expect to see a little drop in median price between May and June and probably again between June and July. 2022, we slid off 15 percent real fast. So I don't know if we're going to see, it doesn't seem like we're going to see that this year, but you never know. Well, we've been talking about how inventory is climbing. So the next slide we've recently added, let's check it out and we will see what is going on with the inventory of homes for sale. Yes. Okay. So you can see here that inventory of homes for sale, again, fairly regular. It got up to a pretty high point in 2016 and then here after 2019, it really dropped off between 2019 and 2020. So inventory really did start to go down prior to the pandemic. So it isn't just the pandemic that has done this. You've got shifting habits, shifting patterns in terms of the way people move that really became very pronounced here between 2019 and 2020. And this drop off was before rates started going up as well. Oh, yeah. It wasn't even due to rates. Well, no. Rates were very, very low, historically low up until right about here. And then as soon as rates climbed, homes really stopped selling for a couple of months, really inventory built. And then we figured out buyers started buying again. So the number of homes for sale has stayed very low throughout 2023. 2024, it came up. Now in 2025, we're seeing levels that rival where we were right about here in 2019. So these are, what is that, seven years? Am I counting that right? From 2019 to 2025? Yeah. That's six years. Six years. Almost seven. We're at a six-year high right now, although the first two weeks in, well, the last two weeks, not the first two. Yeah, I guess that's the first two weeks in July. We've actually seen the inventory, and that's not on this chart, but we've seen the inventory of homes for sale start to inch back down the last two weeks, not by a ton. So it's not, you know, this isn't anything earth shattering, but it has at least for the last 14 days kind of slowed down in terms of its increase and even gone down a little bit. And that could likely be due to a very slight decrease in interest rates. Let's take, are you ready to talk about interest rates? Let's talk about it. Okay. All right. Here's the latest Freddie Mac chart showing the most recent average mortgage rates. Yes. So over the past seven days, 6.72% has been the average, and that is up just a little bit from last week at 6.67. We had been heading in the right direction for several weeks in a row. It had been trending down, and then last week bounced back up just a tiny bit. But even these tiny moves in rates affect pending sales. For instance, last week, pending sales were up. And then when I look, well, two weeks ago, pending sales were up. And then when I look this morning, over the last seven days, pending sales down a bit again, and lo and behold, rates are up. So very, very rate sensitive market. 10-year treasuries, same thing. These interest rates are very closely tied to 10-year treasury yields, which we have discussed in some other recent videos. So watch 10-year treasuries if you want to know what's going on with mortgage rates. Right. Or you could just look at the Freddie Mac charts or watch our videos. Any of those things will work. I would recommend watching our videos. Just watch our videos. Yes. All right. Do you have anything else you want to talk about today? No, that's it. Month over month and longer-term overview here. And let's just keep an eye on the number of homes for sale, otherwise known as inventory, and then keep an eye on rates. Mm-hmm. And as soon as you see rates go down, you're going to see pending sales pop up. Although right now, again, the last two weeks, we've seen less new listings. So that is helping to push down that number of homes for sale. More homes for sale, better for buyers. Less homes for sale, generally better for sellers. Although overall right now, the market is just generally sluggish for everyone. All right. Well, we'll check back next month, and hopefully things will be humming along a little bit more. But we shall see. Yes. However, do stay tuned for our weekly updates and zip code by zip code updates that we bring you several times a week. And if you want to know what's going on in your neighborhood, drop your zip code or neighborhood in the chat, and we will make a custom video. Thank you. Yes. Yes. All right, everybody. Thanks for watching. If you enjoyed this video, please like, share, subscribe, and comment, and we'll see you next time. See you later.