China's next leader: The power struggle you're not seeing

Hello, everyone. Welcome to Lei's Real Talk. It's the weekend. All right. I hope your weekend is good so far. Well, first of all, thank you all for helping me finally get ethane right. I have people send me emails with recording of the word, and I got it. Lei got it now. Just think, propane, Jane, profane, ethane, right? Easy. I'll never mess it up again, I hope. Okay. So now let's ask the question. Who will rule China after Xi Jinping? That's the question I often get. I don't think a lot of people have the answer, but maybe tonight we will get the answer together. Behind the CCP's carefully managed image of unity, a fierce power struggle is raging. Two contenders are quietly positioning themselves. One is a seasoned political survivor backed by powerful party elders. The other is a rising technocrat closely related to someone who's important. And the rising technocrat may be acceptable by all as a compromise. So in today's program, we'll dive deep into what's really happening inside the regime, and I'll show you who these individuals are and what China's next leadership may look like. So let's get started. Okay. CCP politics is a real-life political thriller, full of twists, betrayals, and life-and-death power struggles. Remember back in October 2022 at the CCP's 20th Party Congress closing ceremony? A shocking scene unfolded right in front of the world's media. Former leader Hu Jintao tried to examine a red folder. The official next to him, Li Zhanshu, blocked him. When Hu turned to check Xi Jinping's folder, she slammed it shut and immediately ordered Hu to be escorted out, even though Hu was visibly reluctant. Actually, I have a picture. Oh, yeah, I do have a picture. So you remember this picture. This picture is world famous. Behind the dramatic moment stood one key figure. That is Hu Chunhua. The file Hu Jintao tried to check contained the list of China's next top leaders and his protege, Hu Chunhua, who was once groomed to be CCP's crown prince to succeed Xi Jinping, wasn't on it. At that very Party Congress, Hu was pushed out, out of the Politburo and sidelined into semi-retirement mode. Actually, I have a picture of Hu Chunhua. There he is. So he's now one of the vice chairmen of CPPCC. Soon after, his allies and associates were purged in sweeping crackdown. And according to his former legal counsel, Mr. Du Wen, who now lives in Europe, Xi Jinping had long sought to eliminate Hu Chunhua, but Hu Jintao fiercely protected the junior Hu. And Mr. Du said that without Hu Jintao's intervention, Hu Chunhua would have already been locked up in prison. And now, after surviving years of setbacks and bearing the title of the discarded crown prince, Hu Chunhua's moment may finally be here. He's emerging as the most likely candidate to lead China after Xi Jinping. However, he's not without competition. Xi Jinping, learning from his own experience, is selecting his own candidate to succeed himself. And this man was educated in the West. We'll talk about who that is. So let's talk about Hu Chunhua first. Now, we know part of Xi Jinping's political crisis is that he hasn't officially named a successor. Yet China's fierce leader, quote-unquote fearless leader, has been rumored to be in poor health. And by February 15th program, I analyzed the top contenders to succeed Xi from each of the other political factions. In that program, I concluded that Hu Chunhua had the best shot at succeeding Xi if he becomes incapacitated. And lately, there's even more and more evidence supporting that prediction. In fact, the party has quietly started dropping hints. So let's talk about why Hu Chunhua is back in the spotlight and why the signs point to him becoming Xi's possible successor. From March 30th to April 3rd, Hu Chunhua, who is currently a vice chairman of the CPPCC, led a delegation on an inspection tour of Anhui province. The official theme of the tour was rural village preservation and promoting traditional culture. On the surface, it looked like just any other routine visit. But for those of us watching the CCP politics closely, this trip stood out. Why? Because Anhui is the home province of Hu Chunhua's mentor Hu Jintao and the late premier Li Keqiang, two key figures in the Hu Jintao faction, although Li Keqiang died. Of all the places Hu Chunhua could have picked to visit, he chose the home province of his mentor, An Li Keqiang. Immediately following his visit to Anhui, the People's Daily and Xinhua News Agency suddenly started running a flood of reports about a place in Tibet that you have not heard of. It's called Lingzhi. Now, what does that matter? Well, this place, Lingzhi, happens to be Hu Chunhua's political starting point. Back in the 1980s and early 90s, he worked there as deputy secretary of the Tibet Youth League and deputy commissioner of Lingzhi. Even today, many of his old friends or allies still hold influence in the region. And then on April 7th, People's Daily published a piece praising the Lingzhi government for solving urban development problems, a pretty unusual spotlight for such a remote area to be featured in People's Daily. Political commentator Jiang Weiping, who used to be a correspondent working for a Hong Kong newspaper called Wenhuibao, which is a CCP newspaper. There he is. He said this wasn't random. The top editors at People's Daily— I mean, he worked at a CCP propaganda newspaper, so he knows the inner workings of these media outlets. So he said the top editors at People's Daily and Xinhua were certainly picking up on the change in political winds. They started highlighting Hu Chunhua's past achievements and his lingering influence. It's a pretty clear signal that Hu Chunhua is back and will play an important role. Between April 6th and 8th, Xinhua's Tibet channel ran several more stories about Lingzhi. They covered everything about this place, from the booming low-altitude economy and cultural tourism to a new air flight themed— it's called Peach Blossom Love Route, whatever that is, for an airline that flies into Tibet. Now, on the surface, these just seem like feel-good local development stories. But in reality, they were building momentum for Hu Chunhua's comeback. When both Xinhua and People's Daily start praising the same place linked to Hu Chunhua's political starting point, it usually means the party elders have reached a consensus. And in this case, the consensus is backing Hu Chunhua. And it didn't stop there. A few days later, another interesting article popped up in state media, and this time it's about tea. And it's titled, Tea Takes Flight. It talked about villagers using drones to transport tea. But the phrase, takes flight, was symbolic, a nod to Hu Chunhua's political rise. It's about, again, the same region. That was his same place, Ningzhi. So it wasn't a coincidence that such a faraway place in Tibet, which was Hu Chunhua's old turf, was suddenly receiving so much positive media attention. This wasn't local propaganda. It was approved by higher-ups. And during that time, from April 8th to 17th, Hu Chunhua led a delegation to visit three countries in Africa, including Nigeria and Senegal. But Chinese state media and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs strangely remained silent until the last day of Hu's visit. Now, going with Hu were two key officials active during Hu Jintao's time. And they were... Let me show you pictures. Oh, there they are. And they were former deputy minister of the organization department. And his name is Shen Yueyue, who is now a vice chairman of CPPCC also, but ranking after Hu Chunhua. And the other man is Zhou Qiang, who was the former party secretary of Hunan province, and also the former head of China's Supreme People's Court. These two key Hu Jintao-era officials accompanied Hu Chunhua to Africa, and this sent a political signal. Some say that the trail may be the core leadership team that Hu Jintao has assembled. By the way, the current Politburo doesn't have a female leader. It used to have a female vice premier, Sun Chunlan, but in this new Politburo, there's not a woman, right? And it's also down from 25 officials to 24. So some suspect that Shen Yueyue may fill that void soon. Now, as far as the media silence, it was said that Hu Jintao wanted the junior Hu, Hu Chunhua, to be somewhat active on international stage, but remain low-key domestically to stay out of trouble. And that's why Xinhua didn't report his trip until the last day. Now let's talk about why all these signs matter and what they really point to. Xinhua News has given a clue just very recently. The People's Daily just published an article that's getting a lot of attention. On May 1st, they ran a front-page piece titled Inspiring the Youth of the New Era to show their responsibilities in building Chinese-style modernization. The article didn't just mention young people in general. That title has a very obvious hint. It specifically highlighted the Communist Youth League, which, as many of you know, is the breeding ground for many members of the Hu Jintao faction. Even more interesting, the article hinted that the Youth League should prepare for a succession role. And it wasn't just People's Daily. The same message appeared in one of the CCP's official publications, the Qiushi magazine, which is known to be the magazine that always sticks closely to Xi Jinping's propaganda line. So that's a clear signal to party insiders. The Hu Jintao faction is back, and get ready. Some analysts are saying that what we're seeing now is political retribution. Xi Jinping is facing the consequences of his mistreatment of Hu Jintao at the Party Congress a few years ago, as well as the unexplained death of Li Keqiang. And sure enough, the Hu Jintao faction is returning to the center of power. However, recently there have been rumors that Hu Chunhua could be tapped to take over not only as general secretary of the party, but also as chairman of the Central Military Commission, which would make him China's most powerful political leader. In my February 15th program, I talked about who Hu Chunhua is, who is who. Chris has copied the link to that program in the description, so you can watch that program to get more information about Hu Chunhua's background. But I'll give you a quick summary. He came from an ordinary family and was an honor student in high school, and he graduated from Peking University with a degree in Chinese language, Zhongwenxi. And the Peking University's Chinese language program is one of the best. It's very difficult to get in. And he volunteered to work in Tibet for a full decade and even learned to speak Tibetan. And he is the only CCP leader who has provincial leadership experience in all three categories of regions. That's poor, average, and wealthy, as well as central government experience. And it was said that during the COVID crisis, when many top officials stayed in Beijing directing things over video calls, like Xi Jinping, who refused to shake hands with people when he was seen in public. So when that was happening, Hu Chunhua visited frontline areas, even to remote places like Xinjiang. So this earned him lots of respect from the party elders. However, I must say, however, Xi Jinping is not sitting idle, waiting to be replaced. He knows that his loyal followers, people like Li Qiang and Cai Qi, have almost no chance of securing the top job. So he's actively looking for other candidates. He recently visited Shanghai. While there, he dropped a clear hint that he may be preparing to pass the baton. So who has he picked? The answer? Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Jining. Do I have a picture of him? Oh, by the way, I want to mention this guy. This guy's name is Xiao Jie. He was one of the most loyal aides to the late Premier Li Keqiang. So this man was one of the most important aides that Li Keqiang, the late Li Keqiang had. And he has been active, recently active as well. So that's another sign. So some people say that the Li Keqiang people, or the people who were loyal to Li Keqiang, maybe are on their way back to the center of politics. So that's another sign. Okay, so here they are. Okay, so here's Xi Jinping in Shanghai. And let me show you this picture. Just to get a close-up of Chen, his name is Chen Jining. So he's 61 years old. One year younger than Hu Chunhua. He's a technocrat, but what really sets him apart from other CCP officials is that he spent five years studying in the West. In 1988, he went to Brunel University in London for his master's and earned a PhD in civil and environmental engineering from Imperial College London, completing it in 1993. So before entering politics, Dr. Chen served as president of Tsinghua University. And in 2015, he became minister of environmental protection. In 2017, he was appointed mayor of Beijing. And in 2022, he became the party secretary of Shanghai, succeeding Li Keqiang, who was promoted to be the premier. All of these appointments and promotions took place under Xi Jinping. So he's politically aligned with the Xi Jinping faction, but his technocrat background and Western education also make him acceptable to other factions. So Xi Jinping's choice of Chen Jining is no accident. The party secretary of Shanghai is often a launchpad to national leadership. So for example, Xi Jinping held the job before becoming vice president, and Li Keqiang was Shanghai's leader before becoming premier. And even Jiang Zemin followed this path, becoming party secretary. He was the party secretary before Deng Xiaoping chose him to replace Zhao Ziyang during the 1989 student protest. So Xi Jinping's strategy is very clear. He wants to pick someone who can be accepted by all factions. So Chen Jining's technocrat background and Western education make him especially appealing. Some might wonder, if Xi Jinping is so anti-Western, how can he back a Western-educated leader like Chen? Well, it's about compromise. Because Xi Jinping himself rose to power as a compromise choice. So going back 12 years ago, or even 13 years ago, when Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao factions were debating who should succeed Hu Jintao to be the fifth CCP leader, they couldn't reach a consensus. Jiang Zemin wanted Bo Xilai to succeed Hu, while Hu Jintao preferred Li Keqiang. Neither side would budge. So they compromised. And they picked Xi Jinping, thinking that he would follow both their directions. So you see, Xi Jinping got the job because he was acceptable to all factions. That's exactly why Chen Jining is now Xi Jinping's best choice. So here's what happened. To show Xi Jinping's support for Chen, he even changed his usual style of dressing. Let me show you his picture. Where is it? Here we go. Let me make this bigger. This was taken from CCTV. The man on the left is Chen Jining. And you see the man standing on the right, on our right, to Xi Jinping's left is He Lifeng and also Cai Qi. Did you notice something different in this picture about Xi Jinping? His clothing. Xi Jinping is not known to wear a sports jacket when he is in a casual setting. I mean, Xi Jinping always wears his trademark navy jacket. And all his officials wear the same jacket. So unless in a formal setting, I mean, Xi Jinping wears a suit with a tie. But all the casual settings, he wears this navy jacket. So this time in Shanghai, he wore a suit jacket, a sports jacket. So this is a big change. I believe Xi Jinping was sending a message. He's not completely opposed to Western culture, which is necessary if Chen Jining's candidacy is going to be taken seriously. So you see, he changed. He changed his clothing. This is my assessment. Just to show that he is open to Western idea, culture, and education, because he has to endorse his candidate. Because one of the biggest unique qualifications or weaknesses, depending on how you look at it, is his candidate's UK British PhD. So now let's compare the two candidates. Hu Jinhua's strength is obvious. He's experienced, pragmatic, with a clean record, no obvious corruption scandals. He has strong backing from the Hu Jintao faction and party elders. And he's known for being hands-on and willing to take on challenges. His weaknesses, he's been sidelined by Xi Jinping since 2022, currently holds no power positions. And factional rivalries, especially from Xi Jinping's remaining allies, could still block his rise. Now Chen Jining's strength is that he's perceived as competent. His Western education appeals to international circles and certainly reformists. And as party secretary of Shanghai, he is in a key position that often leads to national leadership. But his weaknesses are serious. He has no factional base of his own. He does not have strong supporters other than Xi Jinping. And also he lacks deep experience with rural governance and poverty issues, areas where Hu Jintao, not Hu Jintao, Hu Chunhua knows well. And his third weakness is Xi Jinping's support. If Xi's faction weakens, his political support could vanish quickly. So as far as who will get the job depends on who retains power in the party. If Xi Jinping does, then Dr. Chen will rise to the top. If Xi Jinping loses, then Hu Chunhua will finally rose from a crown prince to the top guy. So let's do a survey. Who do you think is more likely to succeed Xi Jinping? Vote one if you think it's Hu Chunhua. Vote two if you think it's Chen Jining. And vote three if you're not sure. So let's give it some time. While you vote, I want to answer some questions. So people ask me, why are we seeing conflicting messages from the CCP? That's the first question I want to answer. And the second question is, why can't Xi Jinping just step down and retire if he's so sick and tired of the job, and he doesn't appear to be doing a good job? Why he just quit? Well, first things first, why are we seeing conflicting messages from the CCP? Well, CCP politics is like a black box. Even though the leaders are fighting tooth and nail behind closed doors, they still work hard to present a united front to the outside world. Because if they don't, the regime's dirty laundry gets aired, and its legitimacy to rule would take a serious hit. But that united front isn't always flawless. Their combative nature and constant infighting mean cracks do show. So every so often, we catch a glimpse inside the black box by analyzing the noise, the mixed messages, and the occasional visual slips-ups. It's not easy, but people like me dedicate ourselves to dissecting and analyzing these nuances so the outside world can stay updated on the CCP's real political dynamics. By the way, I know a lot of you watch my programs but haven't subscribed yet. Please do so. Geopolitics across the Pacific is heating up fast, and this channel will keep you updated with timely reports. Okay, so lately, this conflicting message has gotten more intense. And so trying to dissect and understand the dynamics of CCP politics is becoming more difficult. Beijing has become more cunning, using two-faced strategies, like I analyzed in my last live stream. So take Beijing's response to the tariff war as an example. It's deliberately using a confusing mix of wolf warrior aggression and quiet conciliation. So on top of that, the top leadership itself is divided. Their voices are mixed, sometimes blurred and contradictory. So yes, Xi Jinping still holds the top jobs, the three of them, right? Head of the party, head of the military, and head of the country. But he is steadily losing power, especially over personnel decisions and military affairs. The real decision makers are now retired party elders. When we see conflicting signals from the CCP, it's often because different power centers are pulling in different directions. So when we talk about the Chinese regime, we really have to stop and ask now, who are we even talking about? And when we study CCP narratives, we must always ask whose message we're really hearing. So that's why it's very convoluted and complex right now. Okay, let me move on to the next question. Why Xi Jinping doesn't just step down and retire if he's so sick and tired of his job? Well, he cannot. On the surface, everything looks normal. The massive party machine still rumbles on. She still holds meetings towards local areas, gives speeches. But behind the scenes, brutal infighting has knocked too many pieces out of this giant machine, in my opinion. This machine right now is out of sync, unstable, and at risk of breaking down entirely at any moment. And then there's mounting pressure from outside. The Trump administration has been relentless, launching the tariff war, calling out China over COVID origins, and even imposing secondary sanctions on countries buying oil from Iran, and possibly releasing the wealth of top CCP officials. So combined, these moves are delivering a potentially fatal blow to the CCP, and could paralyze the party machine that's already dysfunctional. So the CCP leadership is fully aware of its crisis. And if they want to save this machine from falling apart, they need a scapegoat. They must blame someone. And that someone, at this point, is most likely Xi Jinping, because he has too many enemies. So if his political enemies want to protect the party, they have to blame everything on him. He will become China's public enemy number one. Because if they don't blame it on someone, they can't explain why things have gone so wrong. So someone has to be held accountable. So that person will have to be Xi Jinping. And so he will become China's public enemy number one, bearing all the guilt. The rest of the party will walk away looking innocent and ready to reset relations with the West. This is an old CCP survival tactic, one they've used many times before. Of course, Xi Jinping has no intention of ending his career that way. That's why he will fight all the way to the very end and refuse to become the scapegoat. And that's why it's impossible for him to just retire and step down. Even his political enemies won't let him. Even if he says, I just quit today. I don't want to negotiate with the United States for the tariffs. You guys take over. You take over. I want to quit. They won't let him. So he cannot walk away. I think Xi Jinping is lucky if he suddenly falls ill. If, let's say, he suddenly collapsed on national TV, he could at least bow out gracefully and resign for health reasons. But if he's brought down politically, things will not look pretty for him at all. So that's my answer to why he cannot just quit. Okay, that's all. Hopefully, this information is helpful to you. Let me, first of all, thank the people who gave me super stickers. Ian Slater, when Xi leaves, will China reform itself like Russia after Soviet Union? Or will Maoism survive and take a new form, more subversive in its communism? Well, I don't think Russia actually went through a rigorous reform after the Soviet Union collapsed. That's why we're still seeing a lot of the problems today. So I think it's a good lesson for China to learn. I think China must and needs to go through a serious reform and really reflect on the harm of communism that has left behind. I think they have to do more than Russia. Okay. All right. Let's see. Another YouTube channel. That Southern girl top is so hot. Is this a Southern girl top? Oh, okay. All right. I didn't know. Is that Southern? Is it from the South? Okay. Thank you. I'm just scrolling. Ian Slater, is CCP waiting AOC, Gavin Newsom, Kathy Hauchu, or any other Democrat to attempt to influence election in 2038 in the U.S.? I think they're not thinking that far ahead right now. I think things are so chaotic right now in Zhongnanhai. They're trying to figure out how to survive this storm. I think the CCP machine, the apparatus, is really dysfunctional, even though we can't really tell from the outside. Are the top leaders thinking about 2028? I don't know. Xi Jinping made an effort to befriend Gavin Newsom. But whether or not Xi Jinping will last until 2028 is questionable. It's highly questionable. Some people believe he won't even last beyond August this year. Will someone give me the survey results? I'm curious to see what it is. Dan Porter, watching intently from Thailand. Dawn, sorry, not Dan. Dawn Porter. Thank you, Dawn. Will someone give me the survey results? Here's a comment from Joe Murray. Hi, Lei. This is the first time I caught you live. Who among them do you think would be more open to non-communist ideas? You mean between the two? Who do I think is less? I think both in terms of their real ideology or what they really believe in. I think there isn't that much of a difference. But the question should be asked, who really has the courage to break China away from communism? The biggest weakness that the Chinese people have exhibited is they believe one thing, but they say another. They don't have the courage to face the CCP. So the question is not what they believe in, because they could believe in something and then say another thing. So who has the courage to actually say, if I'm the top leader, I'm going to bring China onto a different path? I'll end the CCP. I'll end the communist regime. Enough is enough. The question is, who will have the guts to do that? I don't think Chen Jining is the one. I think of the two, he's the weaker one. Because he has less ambition. I think he was just thrown into politics. I don't think Chen Jining really has a political ambition as much as Hu Chunhua. Hu Chunhua was described as someone who really has a political aspiration. And he came from a very ordinary family. So for someone who came from a very ordinary family but has political aspiration, then they must do something right for the people. And so let's hope that he has the courage to do the right thing for China. Simon Robinson. Thank you, Simon. Will someone show me the survey results? 62% not sure. I must have done a terrible job convincing you. 62% not sure. You're very cautious. It's good. It's a good sign. Chris Kreative. Does the U.S. intelligence experts and community really understand China at all? Would you or another Chinese insider ever consult with them? Well, they have not come to me. They should watch my channel. I don't know if I have time to consult anyone. This, being a YouTuber, took all my time, even my sleep time. I barely have any time left for myself. The CIA released two videos. Did you guys watch that? They were designed to convince CCP officials to provide information, to tip the CIA. And the two videos received mixed feedback. Some China experts say that they're very well made. They're like Hollywood-style videos, very descriptive. But other people say the thinking is still very Western. They're very polite. The videos are very polite. I heard from one China expert, they're saying that the CIA should make videos that speak directly to these government officials. Don't skirt around the issue. Don't say the politically correct things. Don't make it sound like it's about something that's not important. I agree with both of them. I think, first of all, these videos are a great effort because we haven't seen them before. Second of all, they could be much improved. They're still very Western. Even the actors or the actresses they select for the video do not look like CCP officials and their families. Their mannerisms, everything looks very Western to me. But that's just my feedback. But regardless, I think they will work. I think they work. Okay. All right. Ronald Wenzel. Hi, Lei. I'm from California, US. I enjoy your YouTube videos. Well, thank you, Ronald. All right. I think that I reached the bottom. Norbert Klotz. What is the most likely way to switch leaders? She retires peacefully. She will get removed from his job and accused. She falls out of a window. I think it really depends on what will happen from now until then. I think it depends on if China's economy does not collapse so terribly. If things don't get very ugly, I think Xi Jinping may have a chance to have a soft landing and bow out somewhat gracefully. But if things get very ugly domestically in terms of the economy and social stability, then the regime has to blame on someone. And the other thing is his health. Some people say that he's not in good health. They even noticed that he nodded uncontrollably in video, in the CCTV footage when he was in Shanghai. It was very short. It was a very short clip, but he was nodding his head uncontrollably. So who knows? It's all possible at this point. And I don't have the answer. Okay. I think I will end it here. Okay. Someone said, does Xi Jinping drink and smoke a lot? He drinks hard liquor. He drinks maotai, which is 120 proof liquor. It used to be 120 proof. Maybe they've downgraded. He can drink a bottle of maotai. Okay. That's all. That's all for tonight. Oh, here's a super sticker from Damon Anderson. Thank you, Damon. All right. I'll end it here. Thank you very much. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. I'll see you next week. All right. Bye-bye.