Nhà Kinh Tế Học Tiên Tri Chính Xác Sự Sụp Đổ Của Trung Quốc - Từ 20 năm trước

It has been reported that the Chinese Communist Party has recently held a large-scale meeting intended for Xi Jinping to resign and China to return to the path of reform and opening the door. However, after the era of Xi Jinping, if the reform and opening of the door is restarted, the Communist Party of China may have to face the risk of collapse at any time, because the current geopolitical environment is no longer conducive to the development of an authoritarian communist regime with 1.4 billion low-priced labor. To go deeper into this issue, we need to once again recall the legendary life of the famous economist Zhang Xiaokai, and recall his shocking prediction more than 20 years ago about the arrogance and stupidity of Chinese leaders. Let's take a look at why he said that the reform and opening of the door of China could fall into a pit. Speaking of economist Zhang Xiaokai, he is a legend in the world of economics. From a prisoner who was captured by Mao Zedong himself, he has become the most advanced economist with the Nobel Prize. He not only uses super-fine analysis to reconstruct the new classical economy, but is also the pioneer of the theory of the national development system, and proposes illegal theories to warn China. And his prophecies are increasingly coming true. On October 6, 1948, in a high-ranking family in Changsha, Hunan, there was a boy named Zhang Yiguang, his real name was Xiaokai. His father was a congressman in Hunan province, and his mother was the deputy head of the Communist Party of China. In the midst of the upheaval of the Red Crescent, when the Communist Party of China established a government, Zhang's family was the Blue Crescent. Since childhood, Xiaokai has been smart, has a scholarly attitude and a leadership temperament. His parents hoped he would become the head of the country. However, the political upheavals of the late 1950s, the rebellious upheavals, and the Great Leap Forward have made Zhang's family feel the coldness of the regime. These inscriptions from his childhood have entered Xiaokai's heart with profound questions about social justice. In 1966, a series of cultural revolutions broke out all over China. When he was 18 years old, Zhang Yiguang was studying at No. 1 Middle School. He joined the Red Guards, became a member of the Communist Party of China, and was a member of the Communist Party of China. The organization created this anti-corruption movement, with a more radical image of the Communist Party of China, and challenged the current power structure. Zhang Yiguang used a pen as a weapon. He took a pen named Zhang Yiguang, and wrote a letter that shook the whole country. Where will China go? This letter, from a radical point of view, has shattered the social conflict in China, pointing out that the real confrontation is not between the East and the West, but between the ranks of the Red Guards. Only the officials and the families of the Communist Party of China and the masses of the people, sharp words, tight arguments, quickly flooded hundreds of thousands of people, fought each other. It ignited the fire of ideology for many young people, but also angered the highest leaders. In 1969, Mao Zedong, a close friend of Zhang Yiguang, was sentenced to death. He was arrested and faced with a death sentence. Finally, he was sentenced to 10 years in prison. His mother could not stand the shock and committed suicide in 1970 10 years in prison, from 1969 to 1978, was the most difficult time in Zhang Yiguang's life. But he did not let his country down. On the contrary, he began his self-study journey with extraordinary ability. He borrowed old books, studied English by himself, and even tried to use mathematics to analyze social issues. A friend in prison had a profound influence on him. A math professor, at the same time, was a pure-brained joker. This person not only taught him advanced math, but also used morality and personality to seduce him. They often discussed in prison about freedom, logic and human values. Zhang Yiguang's life since then has had great twists and turns. In his diary, he wrote about his love for ghosts and ghosts. He wrote, The prison taught me to think. It also showed me the light of humanity. The profound awakening has transformed Zhang Yiguang from an idealist advanced to a rationalist. He began to doubt the superiority in the consciousness of the Communist Party of China. He realized that the design of the system, not the heroism of the individual, is the key to social progress. Time in prison has trained his mind and laid the foundation for his subsequent self-study. Returning to school and studying abroad. Analyzing the biographies. In 1978, the cultural revolution ended. Zhang Yiguang was released to erase the stigma of the revolution. He changed his old name to Zhang Yiguang. Thanks to the help of his friends, he found a job at a printing house. Here he met his future wife, Ngo Hiu Quyen, after changing her name to Jin. In the same year, he began to hold classes at the University of Hunan, showing his special obsession with economics. In 1979, the economist Wu Guangyuan discovered his talent. Introduced him to the Institute of Economic Studies, the Institute of Chinese Social Sciences. In 1982, he received a scholarship from the Ford Fund of the United States to Princeton University to study as an economist. In 1988, after completing his doctorate, he did research after a doctorate at Yale University. In the same year, he moved to Australia, joined Monash University of Economics, and began a peak period in his academic career. At Monash University, Zhang Yiguang concentrated on the study of classical economics, especially the hyperbolic analysis of Infrared Marginal Analysis. This theory became his peak in his academic career. In his works on economics, cultural studies, and economics, he has overcome the difficult analysis of classical economics, reusing the invisible effect of labor, not only modernizing Adam Smith's theory, but also expanding it to international trade, economic system, and economic development. His theory is highly regarded internationally. Jeffrey Sachs, an economist at Harvard University, praises him as one of the world's most profound economists. And James Buchanan, Nobel Prize winner, the world's most exciting economic research is being carried out at Monash University, completed by Zhang Yiguang. Like Huo Zhuang, he benefited from the Chinese newspaper Another important contribution of Zhang Yiguang is the theory of legal advantage, disadvantage of backwardness, challenge of popular opinion, and legal advantage. At that time, many scholars like Lam Nghi Phu said that developing countries could quickly catch up with advanced countries by imitating technology. However, after studying the business of Manchuria and Chinese economic history, Zhang Yiguang pointed out that catching up with technology may bring limited growth, but it cannot fill the gaps in the system. If there is no market reform and democratic system, the growth based on technology will only increase the opportunity of the regime, lead to corruption, the expansion of state-owned enterprises and the collapse of private enterprises. In 2001, when China joined the WTO, the people were in panic, but it was also in that year that the Chinese Academy of Economics warned that if China did not implement reform and systematization, economic growth would not be sustainable and would eventually fall into the abyss. In his letter, he also wrote that the real advantage of backwardness is not in imitating technology, but in building a national system in democracy and democracy. In 2002 and 2003, he was nominated twice for the Nobel Prize in Economics. His theories not only affected the academic field, but also provided intellectual power for China's reform. Zhang Yiguang has never forgotten his concern for China's reform. His thoughts in prison made him partially radical, becoming a supporter of democracy. He called for a political structure that is non-concentrated, economically self-governing, against slogans, science, education. His courage came from deep faith that there was no guarantee that the system would increase the economy for a long time. Duc Tin highlighted the concept of a new scientific method that aims to modernize. In 2001, the life of Zhang Yiguang was at a turning point. He was diagnosed with lung cancer, and his life was at a turning point. In the same year, his daughter, Xiaohui, was diagnosed with cerebral hemorrhage, but recovered. And in the presence of her friends in Kodok, she went to Kodok. Under the influence of her daughter, Zhang Yiguang began to rethink his life. In his letter, he openly admitted that he was a person who took his career as his center, Of course, we all know that the hatred in him largely stemmed from the narrow-mindedness of the Chinese Communist Party from an early age. Zhang Yiguang began to recognize the meaning of success. In the summer of 2001, he accepted Duc Tin Kodok to join the British Society. Duc Tin not only brought inner peace, but also deeply influenced his academic view. In his second lecture in 2003, he wrote that the goal of modernization should not only be economic growth, but also the return of morality and Duc Tin. He began to doubt the theories of pure progress, and believed that true happiness came from family and the emperor. On July 7, 2004, Zhang Yiguang died of lung cancer in Australia. Zhang was 55 years old. His death shook the Chinese economy and the Chinese consciousness around the world. However, his influence continued to spread. In particular, his theory of unfavorable consequences became more and more prominent when the Chinese economy began to recover. After the global financial crisis in 2008, China increasingly relied on state investment and international business to grow, while the private sector was suppressed, and corruption became more and more serious. Many scholars and commentators when looking back at Zhang's warning were impressed by his far-sightedness. More and more people study his life and academic theory, considering his prediction as a lie. They believe that if China does not promote the reform of the system, it will fall into the abyss as he predicted. His theory of unfavorable consequences has also become a focal point in the debates of the Chinese economic community, especially through the debate between Lam Yifu and Zhang Yijuan. Lam Yifu, the founder of the Beijing National University used to be a senior economist of the World Bank, the head of the new economic structure, emphasized the legal advantage, believed that the developing country could catch up with the industrial policy led by the government, and imitated technology. The Institute successfully guided China in opening the door, saying that the role of the government in low-level investment and the direction of the industry is essential. On the contrary, Zhang Yijuan, a professor at the Guanghua School of Management in Beijing University, was influenced by the school to support the free market and reduce the government's interference. He agreed with Zhang's theory of unfavorable consequences, saying that the industrial policy led to the allocation of power and corruption In 2016 and 2018, he publicly criticized Lam Yifu's theory that the industrial policy was a new wave of the economic plan and led to a lack of power in the car industry. He especially pointed out Zhang's warning that if the imitation of technology does not go hand in hand with ensuring the system, it will only lead to the collapse of the country's business. On November 9, 2018, the Institute of National Development of Beijing University held a direct debate between two million viewers. Zhang Yijuan led the theory of unfavorable consequences of Zhang's theory to attack the wrong allocation and corruption of the industrial policy, while Lam Yifu contradicted with China's self-growth achievements and 13 other economic successes to protect the effective nature of the industrial policy. This debate is called the century of the Chinese economy. Who wins, who loses? History is the most fair judge. Since 2020, China has been showing its true face. Since 2020, China's economic light has gradually disintegrated to show its true face. On the inside, the shattered real estate bubble, the debt of the local government, the aging population, the unmarried youth, the unborn children, a series of people choosing to lie in peace, the gap between the rich and the poor is getting deeper. China's economy is entering an era of expansion. On the outside, China-US relations are getting more and more tense. The global supply chain is restructuring. Western countries are constantly upgrading technological limitations to China. More and more countries are aware of the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party to the world. On the political front, the power in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party is getting more and more concentrated. The policy is getting less and less stable. The government is increasing its exposure to private businesses. Market confidence is seriously damaged. In 2024, the figures continue to prove the accuracy of Jiang Zemin's warning. According to the report of the International Economic Institute Peterson Institute for International Economics, the market share of China's 100 largest private enterprises decreased from 55.4% in 2021 to 33.1% in June 2024, while the share of state-owned enterprises increased by 54%. Data from the National Statistics Bureau of China also show that in 2024, the fixed asset investment rate of private enterprises was only about 30-34%, half of the 62.1% in 2015, showing that the life of the private sector has seriously weakened. All these trends officially warn that in the past year of Jiang Zemin, state-owned enterprises flourished, private enterprises went bankrupt. The 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics and China's Concerns In 2024, the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Darren Asamoru and two other scholars to honor their work on how to shape their institutions and their impact on prosperity. Their core view is that inclusive institutions such as rule of law, property and democracy are the basis of economic growth, while extractive institutions will lead to poverty and stagnation. This theory is closely related to Jiang Zemin's unprofitable theory. In his famous work Why Nations Fail, published in 2012, Darren Asamoru also specifically mentioned that if China does not promote political reform, economic growth may not last long. That warning, once again, is completely in line with Jiang Zemin's preface more than 20 years ago. The life of Jiang Zemin is like a never-ending lamp. In the morning, the path is full of thorns, but also full of glory of a knowledge, and writes a legend of the whole era. Today, China is standing at the crossroads of politics and economy. Now, more and more rumors and rumored phenomena show that the old men in the Chinese Communist Party such as Ool Zhabao and the deputy chairman of the Central Committee, Zhang Huixian, have launched a coup to force Xi to resign with the goal of returning to the path of reform and opening the door to solve the two problems of stagnant economy and social injustice. This may help to end Xi's However, Jiang Zemin's preface is like a never-ending lamp, and writes a legend of the whole era. the path is full of thorns, but also full of glory of a knowledge, and writes a legend of the whole era. Now, more and more rumors and rumored phenomena show that the old men in the Chinese Communist Party such as Ool Zhabao and the deputy chairman Zhang Huixian, have launched a coup to force Xi to resign with the goal of returning to the path of reform and opening the door of stagnant economy Goodbye and see you in the next programs