NASA Just Cancelled Dream Chaser Launch After Boeing Starliner Trouble. Here's Why...

This happened. NASA just cancelled Sierra Space's Dream Chaser after a series of recent Boeing Starliner troubles on the ISS. This means Dream Chaser officially dropped from the second launch of ULA's Vulcan Centaur rocket. This alarms one more delay on the space plane. But is it the agonizing fall? Are there any other chances for Dream Chaser? What risks and opportunities does this change bring for both Sierra Space and ULA? Find out everything in today's episode of TechMap. After being imposed financial penalties by the US Air Force in May, United Launch Alliance admitted that it should not hold the Vulcan Centaur rocket on the ground any further. The payload of the second Vulcan Centaur mission will be changed from Sierra Space's Dream Chaser to an inert payload and instrumentation. Thanks to that, the Vulcan flight's launch date is now being scheduled for September, one month earlier than the previous ULA plan. In May, the firm raised confidence it would launch the space plane by October. But Sierra then announced that that schedule is risky for Dream. Sierra Space has shared that they are making excellent progress with Dream Chaser, but have scheduled risk to fly by that time. ULA tweeted. Additionally, ULA's other big customer, Amazon's Project Kuiper broadband constellation, also won't be ready to launch its first batch of operational satellites on a Vulcan rocket this fall. Because no other payloads could be ready for the September launch, a simulator is compulsory. For Sierra Space, the move relieves scheduled pressure to some degree and allows them time to focus on ensuring that no stones are left unturned in the lead-up to Dream Chaser's maiden spaceflight. Given that the Tenacity spacecraft that will fly the mission is also planned to be reused, it's critical for Sierra to have a successful launch and landing of the spacecraft. According to the latest updates on Dream Chaser's progress, the spaceplane has been undergoing final testing and pre-launch processing at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, ahead of its launch scheduled for later this year. The remaining pre-flight activities at Kennedy include acoustic and electromagnetic interference and compatibility testing, completion of work on the spaceplane's thermal protection system, and final payload integration. The Dream Chaser spaceplane, named Tenacity, arrived at Kennedy on May 18 from NASA's Neil Armstrong Test Facility in Sandusky, Ohio, and joined its companion Shooting Star cargo module, which arrived on May 11. Before arriving at Kennedy, the spaceplane and its cargo module underwent vibration testing inside the agency's Space Environments Complex, exposing the stack to vibrations like those it will experience during launch and re-entry to the Earth's atmosphere. Following vibration testing, the duo moved to NASA's In-Space Propulsion Facility and was exposed to low ambient pressures and temperatures ranging from minus 150 to 300 degrees Fahrenheit. As expected, Tenacity can launch at the end of 2024, but due to ULA obligations and only three Vulcan rockets are expected to be complete before the end of the year, it will likely need to slip to 2025. The part of ULA also confirmed that they will not leapfrog their customer. We are working with Sierra Space to identify the next available launch date. The long delay of Dream Chaser could somewhat threaten NASA's plans in the Commercial Resupply Service II program where the vehicle was selected, along with SpaceX Dragon 2, in 2016. The company had anticipated to begin fulfilling cargo resupply missions to the ISS for NASA in late 2019, but the bad delay then slipped its first demonstration mission to 2024. If Tenacity continues to extend its postponement, NASA will likely come up with the redundancy. So, how about you? Will Dream Chaser be able to launch in early 2025? Please drop the heart icon in the comment section if you agree. Anyway, if you find this useful, please give us a share, like and subscribe. Your support will be a huge motivation for us to release more high-quality content in the future. And now let's come back. On the other hand, the move makes a lot of sense for Sierra's partner. ULA needs to ramp up its progress toward Vulcan's SIRT-2. The second of two launches needed for the Space Force to certify the rocket for launching national security payloads. So it's not wild if Tory decides to skip his customer and launch the rocket in time, even though this means the SIRT-2 launch will not be a revenue-earning mission. This is certification at our own expense, Bruno said. At first glance, it is like sending a $100 million Vulcan empty rocket into orbit with nobody paying for it. Clearly, it's a loss for a company meeting financial trouble. However, as we go more in-depth, it turns out to be a long-term investment because SIRT-2 does have a much richer customer, the Pentagon. We'll make this investment so that we're able to support our national security space missions, he said. It is devoid of any government funding. It's in the high tens of millions. It's real money. But the actual dollar value is proprietary. As you know, national security missions are the most lucrative launch contracts to the tune of billions of dollars a year in rocket orders. Some of them are low-cost experimental missions, but the majority are expensive, top-secret satellites the Pentagon isn't willing to let just anyone fly. Government satellites often require special handling, resulting in extra fees in some terms like engineering insight, unique cleanliness specifications, and in some cases scheduled priority over other commercial missions. Not by chance, SpaceX has still not yet canceled Falcon Heavy despite its low demand in the market. They are using their workhorse vehicle to compete with ULA's rockets for the National Security Space Launch, NSSL, program. Falcon Heavy has the advantage over the new Vulcan rocket because it has been flown since 2018, but Vulcan just flies once in January after a four-year delay, leading to ULA being fined in May. Meanwhile, the Space Force tends to require the new rocket to complete launches successfully before certifying it to fly the NSSL missions. ULA says it wants to launch two NSSL missions, designated USSF-106 and USSF-87, before the end of the year. Bruno did not estimate how long he thought certification would take, but believed it could be done in time to allow ULA to perform the two Space Force missions. That's because the Space Force has had time to review the data from the CERT-1 launch in January, and preparations are being done in advance of CERT-2. ULA will deliver data and analysis from CERT-2 to the Space Force, to allow it to quickly compare actual with expected performance. It will turn pretty quickly, in plenty of time to fly two more times this year, Bruno said. Both stages of the Vulcan rocket for CERT-2 arrived at the launch site, Cape Canaveral, on June 23 to begin launch preparations. Hardware for the two Space Force missions will arrive at the Cape in August, and right after that, Bruno said. ULA also received all six B-4 engines that will power Vulcan's first stage from Blue Origin for the launch this year. Dave Limp, chief executive of Blue Origin, has personal assurances that the company will be able to meet ULA's needs for B-4 engines, while also producing a version of the engine for its own New Glenn rocket. I have a great deal more confidence in Blue's ability to meet our needs, ULA's CEO said, compared to many months ago or a year ago. A year ago, that wasn't the case, Bruno said, noting his company had a big concern about securing the engines ULA needed. That was back when Blue Origin had a B-4 engine explode during acceptance testing, an engine that was intended for the CERT-2 launch. The timely deliveries of the B-4 engines become even more important since 2025 onward. The company has sold roughly 70 Vulcan rockets to date for missions with the Space Force, Amazon, and Sierra Space. To meet this demand, Bruno expects ULA to make 20 launches, a ratio of 50 and 50 of Atlas V and Vulcan. In 2026, the Vulcan launch cadence will be rapidly ramped up, with a goal of two flights per month in 2026. And that just about wraps it up for today's episode. Thank you and we look forward to seeing you next time.