Xi vs Princelings: China’s war posture is not what it seems

Let's discuss Xi Jinping vs. anti-Xi Jinping forces and their struggles over the Taiwan War. Because this is eye-opening. On March 15, there was an interesting article published by China's Ministry of State Security, MSS. And this article made people believe that the MSS has defected. The article's title is called, The Han Dynasty, Economic Rise and Fall, and Lessons for National Security. The article actually stated that during the reign of Emperor Wu of Han Dynasty, repeated large-scale wars led to soaring military expenses and heavy fiscal burdens. The article concluded that reckless military adventurism would eventually lead to economic decline and social decay. What caught many people off guard was that the article echoed the views voiced by dissidents and pro-democracy individuals. Now the MSS under control of a Xi Jinping loyalist, Chen Yixing, is considered a critical part of Xi's grip over the party. Known as the knife handle, the ministry isn't supposed to post opinion pieces, let alone ones that sound like anti-war manifestos. Observers wonder if Xi Jinping has lost so much political ground that even his MSS is now signaling allegiance to Xi's opponents and taking an anti-war stance. The answer is no. So according to Professor Yuan Hongbin, MSS's article was the direct result of Xi Jinping's struggle with the Red Princelings over the war against Taiwan. Now two days before the article was published, on March 13th, something major happened. Taiwan's President William Lai called the CCP a hostile foreign regime. He also wrote out a 17-point national security strategy aimed directly at the CCP's threat. Lai made it crystal clear to the world. The biggest threat to Taiwan's freedom is the Chinese Communist Party, and he wasn't just talking about missiles, he was talking about CCP's infiltration, subversion, espionage, and the whole authoritarian playbook. Lai's statement was unprecedented. For the first time, a Taiwanese president, in his official capacity, directly told the world that the PRC under the CCP is a hostile foreign power threatening Taiwan. Lai is the first sitting president to clearly name the CCP as the root of Taiwan's national security crisis. And according to Professor Yuan Hongbin, he said it's a greater shock within China than anywhere else in the world. And this shock isn't among the general public in China, of course, since their access to information is restricted. The real shock came within the CCP system. According to Professor Yuan, after Lai's declaration, many CCP officials were shocked. And a group of red princelings, close to Deng Xiaoping's son, Deng Huifang, held a private gathering. They concluded that the time had come to pressure Xi Jinping into responding militarily to William Lai. And so this is what Mr. Yuan said. He said they pushed Xi to act because they've realized that without external conflict, it's impossible to dismantle the powerful spy apparatus that Xi Jinping has built. So their view is that Xi Jinping must respond with force. It must be a military show of power. But here's the twist. They didn't want a war to defend China. They wanted one to bring Xi Jinping down. Why? Because in peacetime, they figured that Xi Jinping's sprawling surveillance apparatus is too overwhelming. And his personal loyalists control the police and the spy agencies. So there's no way for them to unseat him without chaos. Yuan said that since the 19th Party Congress, these princelings have harbored intense dissatisfaction and even hatred towards Xi Jinping. And their consensus now is, let Xi Jinping attack Taiwan. The moment he starts a war, his own dictatorship will be pushed to the brink of collapse. However, the princely secret gathering was quickly reported to Xi Jinping by his spy chief. In response, Xi Jinping ordered the spy chief, the head of MSS, Chen Yixin, to rush out an article overnight. This is where that Han Dynasty article, which I mentioned earlier, came from. Xi Jinping's intended subtext of that article is clear. No, I will not respond to William Lai with war. Not now. I'm focused on the economy. But having the MSS release such a message isn't just PR, it's a warning for the Red Princelings. If you don't behave yourself, or if you don't behave yourselves, we'll come for you through national security charges, treason and espionage. The MSS will be the tool to take you down. But here's the kicker. That message, even if ordered by Xi, may now be backfiring. Why? Because it came from the spy agency, not the propaganda department. And in China's political system, that's highly unusual. So it looks like the Ministry of State Security, Xi Jinping's own knife hand, is siding with the opposition, or at least signaling cracks in the system. It has already caused great confusion as people are openly saying the MSS is now opposing Xi Jinping. Now you understand what a big mess the CCP regime is in. However, the CCP in a chaotic state means greater dangers to us. That brings us to the next subject, which is that the PLA is ever more dangerous. Now think about it. The anti-Xi forces are pro-war. They believe that their only chance to take Xi down is through war. They believe a war will empower them with real authority. The war will provide them with real weapons. Xi Jinping, on the other hand, is anti-war, for he understands what his opposition is trying to do. So I'm afraid this leaves the Taiwan Strait in a particular precarious situation because the anti-Xi forces are the majority. They were the silent majority but are now becoming more vocal. I'm afraid they have been purposely engaging in offensive moves to provoke a war. Even if they don't start a war, they want to create geopolitical challenges for Xi Jinping. This explains why we've witnessed so many provocations lately. The above information that Professor Yuan provided, in my opinion, is extremely important in helping us understand the reckless behavior of the PLA lately. So for example, in February, the Chinese Coast Guard ships and the PLA Navy helicopter harassed Filipino fishing vessels in the South China Sea. And there has been an escalation of provocative military activities around Taiwan. And a PLA Navy frigate conducted unprecedented live fire exercises in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand in February, causing 49 commercial flights to be rerouted. And also, there has been increased military and cyber threats to the United States. These incidents reflect a pattern of aggressive behavior by the Chinese military. On the one hand, we've witnessed Xi Jinping's grip or power in the military waning or declining, decreasing. But on the other hand, we've witnessed more egregious behavior by the PLA. I mean, we're trying to match the two. But now I think Professor Yuan's insight offered a perfect explanation to that. These aggressive actions are being carried out by the anti-Xi forces within the military to cause diplomatic chaos for Xi Jinping and to corner him into provoking a war. And the real objective is, of course, to take down Xi Jinping during a time of chaos and war. Three days ago, the South China Morning Post reported on China's development of a deep-sea device capable of cutting undersea cables. The article detailed that this device can operate at depth up to 4,000 meters and is designed to server undersea communication cables, allowing Beijing to disrupt global communications. When I saw the article, I was trying to understand the motives behind such disclosure. Because it didn't make sense. After learning Professor Yuan's insight, it made total sense to me. Now South China Morning Post had been controlled by the Jiang Zemin faction of formidable anti-Xi forces. So this article is clearly orchestrated by the anti-Xi faction. They might even be behind the recent incident where Chinese vessels have been implicated in undersea cable disruptions. Because there have been quite a number of them. The conspiracy to take Xi Jinping down during a Taiwan military operation is precisely the reason why a large number of generals are purged. After all, if you really think about it, pro-war generals outnumber anti-war generals in the PLA. In fact, I don't think there's any PLA generals who were openly anti-war. Therefore, they're all paying a price now. And that's why the PLA is in total chaos.