Changing last year's data can turn this year's GDP growth from - to +/The tearful story with a smile

on January 24th 2024 China's Hanan Province issued an official announcement that in 2023 the GDP of the province was over 5.9 trillion Yuan a year-on-year increase of 4.1% however Chinese people soon realized that something wasn't quite right one person turned to the official newspaper H nand daily from January 21st 2023 and found that on that day the parties media Outlet published an article about the province's GDP growth the headline read leaping onto a new stage of 6 trillion the province's GDP reached 6.13 trillion in 2022 a year-on-year increase of 3.1% in other words according to the official data hanan's GDP in 2022 was over 6.1 trillion Yuan its 2023 GDP was 220 billion yuan less so the econom IC growth should be negative 3.6% after the public outcry the Hanan government explained since 20123 henan has made great efforts to improve the data quality increased its efforts to verify the statistical data and amended the data of the same period of time in history in a realistic manner after the final verification the total value of hanan's GDP in 2022 was about 5.8 trillion Yuan which was 2.4% higher than that of the previous year in other words Hanan changed its 2022 GDP figure downwards by more than 310 billion yuan or over 43.5 billion in recent years Hanan province has become internationally known thanks in large part to the 2022 incident in which the province's village Banks ran into trouble this was the scene but the current situation is breaking their bottom line that is their money in the bank is gone and it's not a small amount [Applause] since mid to late April 2022 there have been reports of customers not being able to withdraw their money from a number of Village banks in Hunan and enway Province since April 18th six Village banks in these two provinces have been closing their online banking services on the grounds of a system upgrade online and mobile banking services have been suspended as a result many online customers are unable to withdraw cash leading to bank runs this incident involves more than 40 billion rem andb or about6 billion us until now the online businesses of these Banks hasn't been restored and the customers deposits seem to have vanished Into Thin Air most of the affected customers are from outside the provinces mainly from the more economically developed regions many of them bought Financial products from those Village Banks a couple of years ago through online Financial platforms such as the Chinese e-commerce giant jingdong Finance with annual interest rates ranging from 4.1% to 4.9% without online access not only are outof Town customers unable to do banking but their account balances have been reset to zero their hard-earned money has vanished so far the Hanan provincial government and the banking system have failed to solve the problem instead they are focusing on the people who allegedly created the problem that is the victims are now being chased and intimidated in all kinds of ways according to International practice it is permissible to adjust the final verified data relative to the preliminary accounting data however in Hanan the revised downward figure amounts to more than 310 billion or about us 41.3 billion which is a very big number it's finalized 2021 GDP was changed over 5.8 trillion it was also adjusted downward by about 81 billion yuan or about 11.3 billion USD is the adjusted data closer to the real data the Chinese who discovered this secret don't think so according to the BBC's Chinese website by incomplete count at least three other provinces in China have seen GDP growth as a result of revising their economic data from the previous year in fujian Province GDP growth just announced this year went from 2.3% to 4.5% after revising the 2022 figures downward by 109.5 billion yuan in jangi Province the GDP growth rate went from 0.4% to 4.1% after revising downward the 2022 data by 11 14.2 billion yuan in Hunan Province after revising the 2022 figures downward by 81.1 billion yuan the GDP growth rate went up from 2.76% to 4.5% the Chinese people have discovered that while each province's GDP is compiled by the provincial statistical Bureau the National Bureau of Statistics NBS who compiles the national GDP has its own parallel local survey team sometimes all the provincial gdps when added up exceed the national GDP by several trillion Yuan the NBS has branches in every province with over 300 Municipal level survey teams and 800 county level survey teams they are under the direct control of the central government plus agricultural survey teams Urban survey teams and Enterprise survey teams together they are accountable to the ccp's Central Committee and have 20,000 people under its command in other words the CCP Central Committee knows very well that the data provided by local governments isn't credible just 2 days before henan released its GDP figures the NBS posted on its website that statistical forgery had been included as a punishable behavior in the regulations on disciplinary measures of the Chinese Communist Party a spokesman said that statistical forgery was the biggest corruption in the statistical field a serious violation of the statistics law which had a serious effect on the quality of statistical data it interferes with or even misleads macroeconomic decision making and violates the party's ideological line of seeking truth from facts and pragmatic work style it damages The credibility of the party and the government so is the data from the NBS more accurate of course not the NBS has to rely on the original data from local governments as well recently the NBS released China's GDP figures for 2023 saying that the total amount exceeded 126 trillion Yuan with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% in 2023 China's economy sustained its recovery momentum with supply and demand steadily improved transformation and upgrading actively promoted employment and prices generally stabilized people's livelihood effectively guaranteed High development pushed forward with solid progress and the main targets achieved successfully China's GDP in 2023 was 126.0 6 trillion Yuan an increase of 5.2% over the previous year at constant prices the data then sparked ridicule from many Chinese in the International Community isn't buying it either the nikai news reported that the American research firm rodium group was the first to question the data in a report published at the end of December 2023 the group noted even if China claimed to have achieved its 5% growth Target the actual growth rate was likely to be around 1.5% it speculated that a Slowdown in real estate investment such as residential construction and an equipment investment by corporations contributed little to the economic growth so why is the watering down of data by the Chinese government so serious for a long time there's been a saying in the Chinese officialdom officials produce data data produce officials it means local government officials provide data and these water down data in turn help officials get promoted the CCP has been engaged in statistical reform and statistical inspection since 2017 but because the system is fundamentally unchangeable the game between the Central and local government is is basically Unstoppable so the so-called statistical reform is only for show in reality the ccp's GDP falsification started with China's reform and opening up before that China was a planned economy and didn't use the GDP figure it used how many tons of steel how many bicycles sewing machines how many tons of grain Etc to tally things up for measurement the switch to GDP as a measure the national economy was also learned from the west but it wasn't learned well it wasn't long before the CCP started to use it as a tool to measure the performance of local officials and officials at all levels it has been used as an incentive to attract foreign investment these two elements have created the incentive to falsify the GDP from the central to the local level the local level can show that it's doing well and has a good political record and with the national falsifications the CC CP finds that the numbers can be used to attract foreign investment thus over the last 20 or 30 years the CCP has produced very bright numbers to attract foreign investment to invest in China continuously it's not that the way of Statistics is different between China and the West it's that the system is different statistics is a way of describing what has already happened the difference is that the CCP statistics is a control tool to serve politics in the ccp's education system there are no Universal values no standards of what's beautiful and ugly everything is class-based and everything serves Politics the growth figure is first determined by the top Management in Beijing and all people have to follow this figure local governments have to comply with it and so do the local statistical bureaus otherwise they AR obeying the orders of the the central government naturally they won't get promoted therefore the CCP statistics work the opposite way there are benchmarks first and then governments at all levels filling the numbers according to the benchmarks as to how the statistics departments work the numbers it's a matter for the Departments below and the local governments in fact not only the GDP growth but the number of birth population student employment and even the current death toll of Chinese funeral parlers are all subordinated to political needs these statistics will end up with embellished numbers as an example according to Chinese government figures National fixed asset investment was 63 trillion Y in 2017 and then grew every year by 2023 the annual fixed asset investment total in 50 trillion decreased by 13 trillion instead having been increasing every year this number has declined that is this number doesn't add up the International Community has also seen how such a light can't hold up it's true that even if the NBS and the local governments cooperate or try to make their numbers coherent they can't do it for example NBS claims that after final verification GDP totaled 120 trillion in 2022 a decrease of 5483 billion from the preliminary accounting but when adding up the adjusted figures for Hanan fujian Hunan and jangi provinces the adjusted amount already amounts to about 615 billion yuan so there is a difference of 66.7 billion between the total amount of reduced GDP of these four provinces and the central government statistics so far no one in China has explained the difference no one seems interested in dealing with this mathematical problem of the four provinces mentioned Hanan is the one with the largest adjustment it's also the only Province to have turned its GDP growth from negative to positive through data revision it's understandable because for the senior officials of Hanan Province the GDP in 2023 was negative no matter what they did what were they supposed to do they had no choice but to reduce the base figure from the previous year substantially otherwise it wouldn't be in line with the spirit of the central government in the midst of all kinds of economic difficulties the CCP has asked the government and the media from the central to local levels as well as the public opinion to sing the bright theory of China's economy if a large Province declared a negative GDP growth wouldn't it be a disgrace to the party and the country it would also be against the instructions of the central government therefore even though hanan's GDP figures have been exposed as falsified across China the head of the province that is the party secretary should have secured his job Lou is also one of the close confidance of party leader Xi Jinping he is sharing the worries for the central government and has thoughtfully falsified the economy of Hanan Province for the bright side so to forge the GDP data wouldn't have any effect on his career since a provincial party secretary can do this won't other local officials follow suit in the face of such a situation is there anything that the central government can do does the NBS have a solution none do you know that the CCP has never actually allowed foreign American market research firms to independently conduct research in China since the so-called reform and opening up just like in the social sciences in the business Sciences we conduct market research and questionnaires that's something that's very common in the west and it's done almost every day why doesn't the CCP allow foreign market research companies to go to China to conduct surveys because once they do if they use objective and accurate survey methods they would expose China's GDP figures inflation figures per capita income figures and all of these that's why the CCP requires that all companies have to work with the local Chinese entity which is under the ministry of public security so that the CCP can continue to falsify these figures recently Gallup was kicked out by the CCP that is there is no way for them to continue their work in China it's foreseeable that from the local to the central level if they continue to cheat with the figures they will no doubt reach the highest level of deception they will deceive themselves choosing to believe the falsified data watch as this smiling official makes a presentation he is the vice Finance Minister of China fiscal revenues in 2023 show a resumption of growth at the local level the eastern central western and Northeastern regions grew by 6.7 6.9 10.7 and 12% respectively and all of China's 31 provinces realize positive growth in Revenue other officials aren't as psychologically strong as this Vice Finance Minister when announcing positive data to the public they have worry written all over their faces like this one the Chinese economy sustained the momentum of recovery in 2023 with the economic aggregate in the entire year surpassing 126 trillion Yuan or 17.52 trillion an increase of 5.2% over the previous year employment and prices remained basically stable in the year and foreign exchange reserves exceeded $3.2 trillion us as of the end of the year as a result China adequately fulfilled its main targets for economic and social development China made Solid progress in high quality development in 2023 a total of 921,000 invention patents were granted in 2023 in China where efforts were accelerated to bu and unified National Market in the business environment was further improved more than 12 million new Urban jobs are expected to have been added during the year when the resident incomes constantly increased China's total output of grain in 2023 was 65.4 million tons a record high this was the ninth consecutive year for China to register a grain Harvest of over 650 million tons the energy Supply was stable in 2023 for further bolstering the foundations for safe development Chinese Scholars are having a hard time with the central government's call for a bright theory of China's economy they have produced some clever pieces of writing for example one of the Party media Guang Ming daily has this story the headline reads China is expected to enter the high income stage from 2024 the article stated that a scholar had recently claimed that China had already entered the middle to high income stage and that there was no doubt that it would enter the ranks of high income countries in six or S years time according to the article as long as there were no subversive mistakes in politics no devastating blows to the economy and no Breakneck fluctuations in the system a moderately prosperous society would be fully built by then in 2024 there is indeed nothing wrong with these lines as long as there were no subversive mistakes in politics no devastating blows to the economy and no Breakneck fluctuations in the system a moderately prosperous society would be fully built by then in 20124 the question is has the politics of the CCP been full of mistakes blows and huge fluctuations nowadays ordinary Chinese don't have the patience to play word games with experts on January 31st 2024 a blogger on China's social media intentionally rehashed a 2016 article from the people's daily the highest ranking Party media in China to provoke the public the headline read China is expected to enter the high income stage from 2024 onwards as a result ntis exploded and they began to curse or saiz in Anger one wrote at present China has entered the upper middle inome stage I have only one word piss off another wrote a per capita monthly income of 100,000 Yuan or 15,00 is just around the corner it's not like we haven't done it before we just need to force people's tongues another commented the income of the Rich and Powerful has indeed been realized in the past several million Yuan was an astronomical figure for corruption but now the corruption of the cadres at the department level is measured in tens of billions of Yuan someone else wrote no matter how difficult your life is the Bureau of Statistics will help you raise your income in line with the ccp's bright theory of the economy recently a well-known TV host on China National Television asked an expert Chinese people are afraid to spend money and are reluctant to do so what do you think about making people willing to spend money it was a clever question with the established premise that the Chinese people have money the audience didn't take the bait and they fired back angrily one of them a video of a smiling lady's response quickly went viral at home and abroad let's take a look at the tearful response of this ordinary Chinese mother hello teacher I am the common people you're talking about in your program why is it that we common people aren't willing to spend money it's not that we don't want to spend money but we really don't have money I live in djo City Shandon Province a small five or six tier city a city has been recognized as one of the happiest cities for three consecutive years but I've never felt that I'm happy we have a small family of four and I had my second child last year I stay at home to look after my two kids dropping off and picking up my older one from school and taking care of my baby my husband works 1700 kilomet away and makes only 3,000 to 5,000 year a month this woman said her family incurred a debt of 300,000 one or more than 40,000 last year when buying a home they don't know when they will be able to pay it back her parents are getting old and in poor health her mother had a cerebral hemorrhage last year and is still unable to take care of herself and her parents penion is only $150 Yuan or $21 a month which is not enough to pay for one prescription peasants have no pensions no health insurance and they only eat cabbage and radish in Winter and eggplants and string beans in summer they won't buy vegetables that cost more than 14 cents for 500 G and they never buy vegetables that cost more than 35 cents for 500 G Mr Bay I don't know if you have ever seen a vegetable market fight where they argue over a few pennies I don't know if you ever seen the cap driver signing late at night I also don't know if you've ever seen vendors whose homes are in darkness when it's- 10 Cel and there is no business but they are still Manning in their stalls I also want to take my parents to a restaurant once in a while and treat them to a good meal I also want to take my children to unan to travel and see the earth I see in dol every time my child sees the Beautiful scener on TV he asks Mom let's go on a trip too it's not that I don't want to spend money I just don't have the money to spend if possible Mr Bay don't bother suggesting that we should spend money can you instead recommend more jobs for us or with closer distance between work and home or lower gas prices or higher prices for food grown by peasants or a few hundred more Yen a month for peasants old age pensions if we all had money you wouldn't have to advise us we are very good at spending [Music]