Can the US Exploit a Rift Between China and Russia?

Is the West driving a wedge between China and Russia? Or is their no-limits friendship holding firm? Welcome to China Uncensored, I'm Chris Chappell. For years, China and Russia have made sure everyone knows that they're the best of friends. They've given each other friendship medals. They've cooked dumplings together. And they're both founding members of BRICS. Which looks and sounds a lot like an attempt to replace the US on the world stage. And it smells like...sinister. Then of course, there are all those joint military drills between Beijing and Moscow, which have infringed on Japanese waters and airspace, and even approached Alaska. Of course, there's a reason Russia and China want everyone to know that they're besties forever. After all, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. They've both made a lot of enemies. Especially with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and China's pending invasion of...everywhere else. With all these enemies, who can China and Russia turn to other than each other? So of course, Russia has recognized the CCP claim over Taiwan, and accused the West of destabilizing the Indo-Pacific by helping Taipei. And China, while claiming to be a potential neutral broker between Putin and Zelensky, has helped Russia evade sanctions and provided different forms of aid to bolster the Kremlin's military. But is this actually a truly deep bond? A match made in hell? Or just a marriage of convenience? Some believe the two countries can be pried away from each other. And they're looking to history as a guide. During the Cold War, the US took advantage of the Sino-Soviet split to further isolate the Soviet Union. That's why Nixon visited China in 1972. The US offered China a trade alternative, and deepened rifts that already existed between China and the Soviet Union. Now obviously, in hindsight, it was a mistake to legitimize the Chinese Communist Party. Luckily, that was Nixon's one and only mistake he ever made during his presidency. He definitely completed. But the Soviet Union's isolation arguably helped lead to its collapse. And there are some in the US today who believe the policy of splitting China and Russia can be replicated. Like US politician Vivek Ramaswamy. We will freeze the current lines of control, just like we did at the end of the Korean War. We will further make a commitment that NATO will not admit Ukraine to NATO. Remember, James Baker told Gorbachev in 1990 that we would not have NATO expand one inch beyond Germany. Well, look what we've done since then. In return though, I will require that Vladimir Putin exit his military partnership with China. That's right. For some strange reason, Ramaswamy seems to think Vladimir Putin will agree to a deal like this. And perhaps stranger, they'll even keep his word, despite examples from more recent history. But you know what happened to the last guy that believed Putin's promises? Rest in pieces. Ramaswamy also said that the Russia-China military alliance is the single greatest threat that the United States faces today. And so just as Nixon did it in 1972, I'll do it in reverse. Nixon in reverse? So what, he's going to have his political rivals spy on him? Ramaswamy then claimed that such a deal could include Moscow removing its military influence from the Western Hemisphere, meaning countries like Cuba or Venezuela. And while he's at it, why doesn't he ask Putin to whip him up some pancakes? Actually, he just might. Though I wouldn't eat those. Look, there are rifts in the Russia-China relationship that could be exploited. China's banks are increasingly abandoning the Russian market for fear of being targeted by Western sanctions. And now China is also cutting down the amount of coal it imports from Russia. Which is maybe the only time I've ever heard China using less coal. The only thing going green in China are its waters from all the toxic sludge. According to a think tank called the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, Chinese purchases of Russian coal fell by 21% year over year between January and November, from $13.3 billion to just $10.5 billion. What's interesting is China is actually buying more coal in general, just not from Russia. And even though China is buying less Russian coal, sales to China still make up 45% of all Russia's coal export earnings. In other words, the bear really needs the dragon. And the dragon isn't inclined to help out as much as he once was. Probably because it hates being associated with bears. Or maybe it's because Russia has hit China with new trade tariffs. Russian officials recently reclassified certain furniture parts made in China in order to make them subject to a 55% duty. That's more than duties on many European imports. Duty. So the enemy of my enemy is my friend I treat worse than my enemy. Sounds like a great recipe to have only enemies. As you can see, not everything is all hunky dory between China and Russia. So are the No Limits partners going to break up? Probably not. The most toxic couples always are the ones that stick together the longest. Hey, if the West could somehow break up the No Limits partnership, it means a win for the West, and a big loss for Russia and China. Obviously, neither Xi nor Putin would want this. So the enemy of my enemy is my friend who I treat worse than my enemy, but is still the only defense I have from my other enemies, so we pretend to be friends. For now. Hmm, I don't know why people think geopolitics is convoluted and confusing. Despite the dumpling photo ops, there are a bunch of historical and geographic reasons for the two countries to distrust each other. I'm not going to go into that here, because it would take an entire episode. But some of the recent reporting about a split between China and Russia is overblown. Like the news of China's reduction in coal imports from Russia. Turns out, it's not personal. In 2024, Russia's coal sector took a big hit in general, partly due to a decrease in overall Russian coal exports globally. Russia's coal sector also faces rising production costs, just as the price of coal is falling. There are also logistical problems going on. In other words, surprise surprise, Russia is incompetent! So China needs to look elsewhere to meet its coal needs. Never blame on malice what can be explained by incompetence. Which is hard to remember when both parties are incompetent and malicious. A Russia-China trade war is also probably off the table. Bilateral trade reached a record $240 billion last year, a $50 billion increase compared to 2022. According to one expert with the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Russia will not want a trade war with China because it would lose it without any doubt. China provides Russia a lifeline on so many fronts that risking those ties would be suicidal for Russia. On top of that, the CCP is obsessed with stability. Its own stability, that is. And pursuing economic warfare with Russia when China's economy is tanking is anything but stable. Looking at the bigger picture, Russia and China have invested too much—economically, militarily, and ideologically—into diminishing Western power and American dominance to give up now. As the sunk cost fallacy states, if you just keep investing more and more, surely it'll all turn around eventually. And for all that the CCP talks about being an honest broker to bring peace in Ukraine, it has no desire to see Putin lose the war. For China, the Ukraine war, like the ones in the Middle East, is a welcome distraction for the West from its own aggression in the Indo-Pacific. A distraction that uses up a ton of money and military resources that otherwise could be diverted to Japan, Taiwan, or the Philippines, for example. And if the West abandons Ukraine, or pushes it into a ceasefire favorable to Putin, that's another hit for Western dominance and US leadership. And that's a huge win for Russia and China. The bottom line is that these two countries share the goal of defeating the West, especially the US, to make what they call a multipolar world order. That's not something they're going to give up because of a trade dispute. Because it's about their very survival. However, I'm not saying that the US shouldn't try to split Russia and China. From a political warfare perspective, it actually makes a lot of sense to deepen the mistrust between China and Russia. That would make it harder for them to work together against the US. Could you imagine how Xi Jinping would feel if he saw Trump serving Putin the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake instead of him? But here's the catch. US officials cannot be naïve enough to actually trust that Russia or China would keep their word. That's the mistake the US made last time, which ended up helping to build the might and legitimacy of its greatest rival. That's exactly why we make these episodes. So the CCP can't get away with it, and so that policymakers can learn from their past mistakes. This free episode would not have been possible without support from fans like you who want to help keep China uncensored. Head over to ChinaUncensored.tv to join our exclusive community with episodes you won't see here on YouTube. And have you ever considered that Xi Jinping may be a narcissist? Find out how to deal with those kind of people in the latest episode of my new show, Deep Thoughts While Gaming, about narcissists and the monsters in a quiet place. Once again, I'm Chris Chappell. See you next time.