"75-25 for Cancelation"! NASA is about to End SLS...SOONER Than You Think.

cancel the SLS it's an idea that has been on many Minds for a long time with some believing it should have happened much sooner now this possibility seems closer than ever as NASA prepares to enter a new era recent updates highlight the impact NASA's current system has had on the Artemis schedule sparking discussions about the need for change this ship could also be the moment for Elon Musk and SpaceX to step up and take on an even more significant role join us as we explore this topic on today's episode of great SpaceX for over a decade NASA's space launch system has been in development costing tens of billions of dollars despite this Monumental investment it has only completed a single flight an uncrewed Mission this alone highlights the profound disappointment surrounding the program the SLS has already consumed consumed more than 11 billion by the time Artemis 1 launched and it continues to demand significant resources the systems in ability to be reused is a glaring drawback forcing NASA to manufacture an entirely new rocket for each mission NASA has poured billions into other related systems such as the Orion spacecraft and the mobile launcher however these projects have also been fraught with issues Orion's heat shield problems the mobile launcher system has suffered extensive damage requiring lengthy repairs but offering little long-term potential adding insult to injury NASA reportedly lost an additional $4 billion just to launch a single Mission journalist Eric Berger known for his accurate insights in NASA's activities reported a 5050 chance of the SLS being cancelled in earlier updates more recently he updated that the probability has increased to 75 to 25 signaling growing consensus that the program is sustainable Berger's statement not block 1B not block two all of it there are other ways to get or to the Moon given the vehicle's underwhelming performance over the years its survival rate seems appropriately low the US Aerospace industry is poised for a transformative shift with the recent election of president-elect Donald Trump billionaire Jared isikman has been nominated as NASA's next administrator isaacman known for his Dynamic leadership and business acum represents a sharp departure from current NASA leadership isaacman brings a wealth of experience to the role he is not only a successful entrepreneur but also an accomplished astronaut as the commander of spacex's Polaris Dawn Mission he has firsthand experience in human space flight he also has a close relationship with SpaceX having sponsored private Dragon missions and supported the company's groundbreaking advancements this unique combination of business mindset industry expertise and enthusiasm positions him as a leader who could reshape NASA's priorities it seems unlikely that isman would allow a problematic program like the SLS to persist especially given its lack of efficiency and exorbitant costs a decision to cancel the SLS could be made shortly after he takes office further compounding the program's struggles is NASA's recent announcement of additional delays in the Artemis schedule artmus 2 originally planned for September of 2025 has been pushed to April of 2026 while AR 3 has shifted from September of 2026 to Mid 2027 this marks NASA's second delay of 2024 pushing the emis timeline two years behind earlier projections such setbacks threaten the US's position in the lunar race especially as China makes significant strides in its space Ambitions the likelihood of cancelling the SLS appears even higher than Burger's 75% estimate though it is reasonable to assume NASA May proceed with Artemis 2 to avoid wasting EX existing Investments the possibility of the SLS being cancelled feels almost inevitable what are your thoughts on this place your bets in the comment section down below and don't forget to like the video and subscribe to our channel to stay updated on Space access development Journey if the SLS were cancelled what could realistically replace it many would point to SpaceX given its advancements in rocket technology but relying solely on one company raises concerns about monopolization to avoid dependence on SpaceX some propose a collaborative approach involving multiple aerospace companies companies for instance blue origins new Glenn could launch the mission from the ground to orbit after which Orion would separate and dock with vulcan's centar upper stage to proceed to lunar orbit there the crew could transfer to spacex's Starship human Landing system as originally planned however this approach introduces significant logistical challenges requiring Readiness and coordination from multiple companies as it stands new Glenn has yet to conduct its Maiden flight while Vulcan has only flown twice still grappling with technical issues moreover both blue origin and Ula have extensive backlogs of missions to address this leads to the more straightforward option of relying solely on spacex's vehicles several possibilities exist here SpaceX could use Falcon heavy to launch Orion into orbit from where it would follow its planed trajectory to the Moon alternatively Falcon Falcon heavy could place Orion in Earth orbit allowing the crew to transfer to Starship hls for the remainder of the mission a third scenario involves Falcon heavy launching Orion and a Ula upper stage to send it into lunar orbit where the crew would transfer to Starship hls yet challenges remain with this option as well compatibility between Falcon heavy and Orion could be an issue and Starship hls would require upgrades to handle expanded Mission roles additionally spacex's orbital refueling system essential for these missions has yet to be fully developed despite these hurdles relying on SpaceX appear appears to be the more promising option spacex's vertical integration ensures greater continuity and reliability especially if NASA considers replacing Orion with dragon dragon has already demonstrated its reliability and could be upgraded for lunar missions alternatively Dragon could act as a crew transfer vehicle in Earth orbit facilitating missions with Starship hls as for Starship itself it continues to progress rapidly in just 1 and a half years SpaceX has achieved controlled Landings for both stages of the vehicle a timeline much shorter than the SLS development the company has also recovered super heavy using the groundbreaking megazilla arm looking ahead SpaceX plans to refine this system further ultimately enabling both stages to be caught and reused refueling technology is also on the horizon promising to revolutionize deep space missions if the SLS is indeed canceled spacex's role in lunar and interplanetary exploration will inevitably grow this would demand that the company accelerate its timeline towards stable operations and develop its refueling infrastructure next year's planned ship catching Mission will be a critical Milestone toward achieving full reusability something the SLS and other traditional Rockets cannot accomplish full reusability would drastically reduce costs enabling more frequent missions and laying the groundwork for moon and Mars exploration SpaceX is already planning to ramp up Starship launches next year aiming for up to 25 flights about two missions per month this increased Cadence will allow SpaceX to refine its systems improve reliability and transition to stable operations based on NASA's Artemis timeline SpaceX would then have an additional 1 and a half years spanning 2026 and the first half of 2027 to further increase launch frequency and Readiness before the official Artemis mission in mid 2027 in tandem with this effort SpaceX will work on developing its orbital refueling system while this posst significant technical challenges spacex's track record suggests It is Well equipped to succeed the company has already achieved remarkable Feats such as vertical booster Landings and catching boosters with mechazilla with extra time for development SpaceX has the potential to revolutionize space travel next year may also see the debut of spacex's hls prototype early designs for the crude version have been released showcasing significant promise this prototype will serve as a key step in demonstrating Starship hs's capabilities for NASA's aremis program in conclusion if the SLS is cancelled SpaceX seems best positioned to take on its role thanks to the to its advancements in reusable rocketry rapid development cycles and integration of critical systems like orbital refueling collaborative approaches involving multiple companies face substantial hurdles making spacex's streamlined Solutions more appealing what do you think would be the ideal replacement for the SLS share your thoughts in the comments section down below and don't forget to like And subscribe to stay updated on spacex's groundbreaking journey we'll need to wait for NASA's leadership transition to see what happens next while not yet certain all signs point to the SLS nearing its end largely due to the long-standing issues it has created fortunately SpaceX remains a vital force in the US Aerospace industry poised to take on an even greater role with Elon Musk and his team stepping up we can anticipate a stronger collaboration between NASA the organization that first sent human to the moon and SpaceX the company positioned to do it again this partnership is essential to reclaiming lunar leadership do you agree in any case that's about it for today's episode thank you so much for tuning in and as always this has been Kevin from great SpaceX until next time keep looking up