All Things Trump Still Driving Markets | Markets in 3 Minutes

We've been talking this morning about Treasury picks and lack of clarity as to who that is. I mean, some of them look quite, from a market perspective, look quite radical. Others look almost mainstream. Is this something that's going to move market expectations or are we entirely focused on wider Trump policy and Fed expectations? This is definitely moving markets at the moment. In fact, markets at the moment, the only thing they care about is everything Trump. That may slowly fade over time, but it's everything between who Trump's picks are, what that means for likely policy. And then, of course, there's the secondary step of actually analysing how that policy will interact with each other and with markets. But at the moment, every single headline around those picks are really important. And I thought Critty's kind of outline of the situation was really, really important there and very good, because ultimately, the Treasury pick's the one that's going to be really, really important. And the fact we're slightly more positive today than last week is, last week we started, people started to come to the belated realisation that tariffs are not good news for US companies. And now, this week, after some weekend reports that, hey, it may be a Treasury pick that is less aggressive on tariffs, that is making the market a little bit more confident today. But at the moment, they're very much on tenterhooks on who the next pick will be. But this is the challenge, isn't it, Mark? The market wants somebody who's less tariff-like and will support, therefore, equity market valuations. But the Trump presidency may want completely the opposite. The market is betting on Trump being good for markets, but you wonder whether or not the reality of the Treasury pick will kind of lay bare the tension that exists within that. Can the market have its cake and eat it? Probably not. And this is why, after being bullish on stocks all this year, I turned bearish last week precisely because of that dynamic, that the market has, in the early weeks going up to the election, since the election, focused on all the positives of Trump policies. And now they're suddenly realising that, hey, some of these policies are very, very negative as well. Now, we still don't know what policy mix will be delivered. And I think that's really important here. But I think that we have been very singularly focused in the analysis out there. Ultimately, tariffs are bad for the global economy and not good for US stocks. And Trump was very aggressive that tariffs were going to be a key part of his presidency. And it's one of the areas of policy that he has the most power to enact. So that is becoming a little bit more negative. And that's why the Treasury pick, when it is decided, will make a big impact. Of course, something that I imagine the bond market will trade very, very closely off of. Mark, in our last couple of seconds, Valerie Teitel, our markets correspondent, was talking about buying at $4.50 on the 10-year yield, a little bit of a bid to the bond market then. But what's the next line in the sand in terms of that yield? I don't think there is a dramatic line in the sand right now. I think we kind of bounce around to the 10-year range. As I kind of talked about last week, I think more of the volatility in the bond market will be at the front end of the moment, whether December is in play, what the path of the Fed is after that. I think the really exciting movements for 10-year will be something that we pay six months from now when they can really get a trending move in 10-year yields. Until we get clarity on Trump policy, it won't happen.