Orlando housing market just flipped. Florida inventory is skyrocketing.

Is the Orlando, Florida housing market on the verge of a big crash in 2025? As we look at data on ReVenture app, we can see that Orlando is getting taken over by a gigantic inventory spike where there's now the most homes for sale that we've seen in the last seven years by far. Literally, people are selling out of the Orlando housing market, builders, investors, and people who are getting called back into the office who moved during the pandemic. And the result is that houses across Orlando are taking big price cuts and sitting on the market for a really long time, which is good news for you guys out there as prospective homebuyers and investors and even realtors. The Orlando housing market is starting to correct, and as long as it continues to correct, we're going to see more affordable prices and actually bring more buyers into the market in the future. However, I need to warn you guys about something, and that's the fact that prices in Orlando are still very overvalued, number one, and number two, there's big differences in what's going on across the Orlando metro. If we go back to data from ReVenture app, everyone, take a look at this. We're going to shift from metro to county view. You can see there's four counties that comprise the Orlando metro. Orange County, Osceola County, Seminole County, and Lake County. These four counties are the Orlando metro. And what's very interesting is that the inventory and supply situation is different depending on where you go. The biggest inventory surplus, the most excess supply is actually in Osceola County to the south, where there's now 3,800 homes for sale, which is by far the highest level in the last seven years. Prior to the pandemic, there was only 2,200 homes for sale in Osceola. Now we have 3,800, an indication of a declining market. The ReVenture app price forecast score for Osceola County is heavily down. Now we can see if we go up to Orange County, we also now have had a big inventory spike to the second highest level in the last seven years, but the inventory spike in Orange County is not as big as it was in Osceola County, which is why the ReVenture app home price forecast score is lowest in Osceola County. We're expecting at ReVenture app bigger drops in prices here in Osceola, while Orange County, maybe slight correction the next couple months, Seminole and Lake County, a bigger correction. And the beauty of looking at this data, if you're a home buyer and investor, is that you can fundamentally understand the direction of your market over the next six to 12 months, so you can make a more educated home buying decision. Because I think the last thing a lot of you guys want to do is use your hard-earned down payment or hard-earned savings on a house or investment property, and then buy in the wrong area at the wrong time or lose lots of money. So if you look at this data and understand the direction of the Orlando housing market in Florida in general, you'll be able to make a more informed decision. But one thing I have to continue to stress to you guys is we kind of zoom out here on the home price forecast map of Florida. We have this data for every county in America on home price forecast, everyone. You're going to want to check it out at www.reventure.app after this video is over. But I want to actually get into some neighborhood specific detail because I think this has been important for you to understand is that it's not enough to know the data at your metro or county level. You got to zoom into the zip code. But even if we zoom in here in Orlando, in Orange County, we can see big differences. Like south of downtown Orlando, we have negative price scores. We have 29 out of 100, 37 out of 100 at www.reventure.app. That's indicating downward price pressure, excess inventory, higher days on the market, right? So prices are more likely to drop in these areas in blue. But then let's look up here. College Park, Winter Park scores of 53.54 out of 100. We actually still have an inventory shortage in Winter Park. There's a very desirable neighborhood in the Orlando metro. And you can see we're still way below pre-pandemic inventory here in 32789. In Winter Park, we're just telling you prices are more likely to stay stable or go up. So again, I'm telling you guys, if you are a realtor, if you are an investor or a buyer, you got to understand this. We have an inventory deficit in Winter Park. We have an inventory surplus all to the south of Orlando, which is leading to very different results in terms of recent home price appreciation. And so if you're a buyer investor, you got to know number one, what's the inventory situation in my market? Am I oversupplied or undersupplied? Then number two, what's the home price forecast in the short term for my market? Do I expect prices to go up or down in the short term? But then number three, you also want to know how fundamentally over or undervalued prices are in your area. Because it's this over-undervaluation, which is really telling you if you're getting in at a good time and a good basis, and if prices are more likely to go up or down in the long-term future, right? Because if you overpay for a $700,000 house that's really worth $500,000, you might struggle, right? Even if in the short term, prices go up still the next six months, in the long run, you might struggle to make money on that house. And so what we did at ReVentureApp to help you guys with this is we came up with a data point called overvaluation rate, how overvalued prices are or undervalued. You can see actually prices are slightly undervalued in downtown Orlando, but this is the key point. On the overvaluation rate, we look back 20 years and we see how home prices compared to income in an area. And we look then today at how over-undervalued prices are because of that. So in Winter Park, prices are currently 13% overvalued, which actually isn't that bad. So what that means is that the fair home value in Winter Park is $667,000. The actual home value is $756,000. So we have a little bit of downside, but really it's kind of this relationship of where the current home value is to the fair home value. And if you actually go to the home value graph for any city, neighborhood, or county, and click show fair home value, which is a premium feature, you'll see how the values compare over the last 20 years. And Orlando in general is 23% overvalued compared to its long-term norms today. So there's 23% downside in prices just based on the fundamentals of how home values relate to income. And I just want to show you what that means. The typical home value to income ratio in Orlando today is 5.0. That's a home value of $395,000 across the metro divided by a median income of $78,000. So houses are trading at five times median income in Orlando today. We can see that this is a historically elevated rate. And in the long run, homes usually trade for 4.1 times income. So this is a signal of an overvalued market and basically telling you like this is not sustainable. The last time this happened was 06 before there was a big crash. And so really either the home prices have to go down or the incomes have to go up or some combination thereof because that's the only way that buyers are going to come back into the market. So important to understand that if you're a realtor or mortgage broker, especially, you know, the home buyer demand is so low right now in Florida, the transaction volume is down. Why is that? It's because the local buyers cannot afford the prices and there's been a reduction in people moving in. So we need those local incomes to go up and the prices to drop to then unlock more affordability so people can actually buy the homes. And just right now, everyone, I want to show you how Orlando ranks compared to other areas in Florida. So on ReVentureApp under filters, you can actually isolate a specific state and look just at that state. And what we're going to do is go to table view and then rank the states and metros in Florida by different data points, like home value to income ratio, home value growth, overvalued rate. What we're going to do is we're going to say we're only going to look at metros with a minimum population of 150,000. Come back to this list. You can actually see in terms of home value to income ratio, how expensive it is related to incomes. Orlando isn't even in the top 10. Orlando is actually number 13 in terms of how expensive prices are in Florida. So like Naples, Miami, Port St. Lucie, North Port, Crestview, Cape Coral are all more expensive than Orlando because the values are higher than the prices relative to the incomes. In terms of overvaluation rate, you can see Orlando is higher. Orlando is the eighth most overvalued housing market in Florida, 23% overvaluation. Number one's Port St. Lucie, Miami, Tampa, Lakeland, Ocala, Jacksonville, and then Orlando, 23% overvaluation. And if you wanted to do some fun research, everyone, you could use this filters tab here and really isolate specific areas in Florida or specific counties in Florida, especially that meet your home buying criteria. You could say, I want to look in areas where the typical home value is less than 300,000 and where home values are going down. And then you would get a result like Marion County has cheaper home prices and values are dropping. So if you're someone who wants to buy right now, maybe Marion County and Ocala would be place to go. However, I do think prices are going to get cheaper in Orlando, everyone. I mean, the inventory is spiked. The price cuts are up. The days on the market are up. These are all the signals of a declining market. So what you should do as a home buyer and investor is track this data on a month by month basis for your Metro County and zip code. So you can make a more educated decision when it comes time to buy in early 2025 or the middle of 2025. So what you should do right now is head to www.reventure.app, type in your zip code or your city in Orlando and start analyzing the data on home values and inventory for free. And then upgrade to a premium plan. So you can get access to all this really popular data that our users love. Home price forecast scores over valuation rates. We can look at cap rates if you're an investor for all the zip codes. Population growth is also huge for understanding how your market's trending. How's the population growth? What's the price cut rate? And also what's the long-term five-year appreciation? These are all really important data points that you can access on a premium plan on reVenture app for $39 a month or sign up for the annual pass, which I would recommend a lot of you do. You can save 15% on the annual pass and get it knocked down to $33 a month billed annually.