Which Jobs Will Survive AI?

In this video we're not going to beat around the bush. We're going to be taking this list of all jobs and systematically eliminating those that are predicted to not survive the next five years. I've spent hours and hours reading tens if not hundreds of research papers and articles and posts and tweets on what jobs are AI-proof and which ones are not. There are also some people that genuinely believe that AI is not going to impact their careers and not going to impact their life. So I'm going to just tear off that band-aid. This is called the ostrich effect in which ostriches allegedly like to bury their heads in the sand to not face the danger and just hope that it passes. But I'm gonna make you confront this and make you see the truth that many jobs will be impacted and some automated and eliminated. But if you stay until the end you will leave this video with a plan and motivate into action. A portion of this video is sponsored by Coarse Careers. Is anything bothering you young lady? Just the usual. Global disasters, artificial intelligence taking over. Alright so here is the methodology of this exercise. First I went on ONET which stands for the Occupational Information Network. It's a database that has information on all of the different jobs. It's kind of like the gold standard on which a lot of research papers base their list of jobs. A few disclaimers. I'm going to be limiting ourselves to just a few years in the future because who knows what's going to be happening post like especially with 2024 already being insane and it's February. Gemini 1.0 got released. 5 days later Gemini 1.5 got released and then Sora got released from OpenAI. Maybe by the time you're watching this video more things have happened. Second thing is that we're assuming the government is not going to heavily intervene because they may given how much technology is impacting things right now. And the third thing kind of like a big disclaimer. I know some people are going to be quite triggered by this exercise which is okay. My point in making this video is to open up conversations but I just wanted to say that this is not an exact science so don't come after me okay. So the first thing I do is to download two tables. The first one is this all occupations table that lists out all of the different occupations and this table called all career clusters which is able to match the code of the careers and provide additional information such as the career cluster that's allocated into like agriculture food and natural resources and architecture and construction. This will be useful in determining which jobs fall under which categories. Now instead of what I would usually do in opening python and then combining these two tables together instead I go on chat gpt and all I have to do is take all occupations and all career clusters.csv and type combine these two data sets by matching the columns code and onet sock code and as chat gpt is thinking I sit here and panics a little bit about chat gpt potentially taking my job. Just kidding. Anyways now we have this nice list with the career clusters and additional information as well as the names of the actual jobs themselves. Excellent. I think a lot of papers either beat around the bush and not exactly say which jobs are going to be impacted or they're kind of like wishy-washy and don't have good research or justifications backing it up. But I did find two sources that have rigorous methodologies and good justifications for why they say that certain jobs will be impacted and eliminated. The first one is this future of jobs report 2023 from the world economic forum. It overviews the global labor market landscape as opposed to just the single region. It talks about the macro trends of the industry and the impact of technology on transformation and employment. The two major places I'm going to be focusing on is the labor market transformation and the jobs outlook. So the first table I want to point out is the expected impact of technology adoption on jobs predicted from 2023 until 2027. So this table with the purple and the blue, the blue is the job creators and then the purple is the job displacers and the overall net effect. So we can see that the technology is expected to create jobs is going to be big data analytics, climate change mitigation technologies, and environment management technologies blah blah blah all of these things. So the two that will cause the most amount of job displacement is going to be robots, non-humanoid and robots humanoid. One more table that I want to cover is the projective job creation and displacement. So this table over here shows the jobs that will be lost, the stable jobs and the jobs that will be created. The researchers estimate that there will be a reduction in employment of 14 million jobs which represents 2%. All right now let's actually dive into the new jobs and lost jobs. This particular table, the blue represents job creation and the purple represents the displacement. So we can see on the top of the list over here we have AI and machine learning specialists, sustainability specialists, we'll actually talk about the jobs that are created later in the video but first let's focus on eliminating our list of jobs including at the bottom of this list with jobs displaced, bank tellers and related clerks, postal services. So everything up to I would say like around neutral is strategic advisor. Ah yes our list of jobs here. By the way this is why I wanted to get the career clusters, the career pathways and more information because the name of the jobs don't exactly match what is going to be on here so this will help us eliminate similar jobs. So for example for security guards the terminology does match exactly so we'll grade this out but I think this includes school bus monitors and it would also include retail loss prevention specialists and gambling surveillance officers and gambling investigators. I'm going to keep it relatively conservative and not eliminate these roles. Alright now I have eliminated many of the jobs over here. I also made sure that this figure which shows the largest job declines by the millions are also roles that I have eliminated. Also this table projected churn and net growth slash decline of employment. Churn here refers to the amount of displacement and creation so just the amount of activity in that role. So those with a decreased amount of growth is going to be everything over here and we can see that this is under the category of interactions and record keeping. Some protective factors include digital access and digital trade enabled jobs, energy transition and climate change mitigated jobs, advanced technology jobs, as well as green jobs, education jobs, and agriculture jobs. Repairs, factory workers, and laborers. It says that there's uncertain impact with mechanics and machinery repairs. Almost as many respondents expect declining outlook as growing one and supply chain and logistic jobs also both face expectations of growth and decline. Those generally social jobs in care, education, and healthcare play a vital role in societal well-being so there is an increased amount of these kind of jobs. And the number of significantly declining jobs out of 1,012 is 80. So eight percent in the next three to four years. Let's now move on to our next source which is called GenIA Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work by the International Monetary Fund, a global organization that works to achieve sustainable growth and prosperity for all of its 190 member countries. It does things like supporting economic policies. It was also involved in the bailouts of certain countries like Greece. So I do know that some people really don't like the IMF. You can let me know that in the comments but I do think that this report is very well researched which is why I'm using the source. In particular we're going to be exploring AI exposure and complementarity which is a really cool framework for how they determine which jobs are going to be the most likely to be replaced. Currently what people do is they look at technological innovations on jobs by looking at a bundle of different tasks and then considering which tasks can be replaced or complemented by technology and reverse engineering that to the which they say is going to be highly impacted with AI. But in this framework there are actually two parameters they look at. Firstly it's the exposure of AI which is the degree of overlap between AI applications and required human abilities to each occupation. They also introduce this concept of complementarity which reflects an occupation's likely degree of shielding from AI driven job displacement and when paired with AI exposure can give an indication of AI complementarity okay so they go on to explain this for example because of advances in textual analysis judges are highly exposed to artificial intelligence which means a lot of their job is going to be impacted by AI and are things that AI can do but they're also highly shielded from displacement because society is currently unlikely to delegate judicial rulings to unsupervised AI so that's why AI will likely complement judges and increase their productivity rather than replace them. On the other hand clerical workers who are also very exposed to AI but have a lower level of shielding they're more at risk of being displaced. Based on this they were able to come up with three different groups of jobs those that have high exposure and high complementarity those that have high exposure and low complementarity and those that have low exposure. Jobs that have high exposure and high complementarity like a judge is less likely to be replaced but those with high exposure and low complementarity are those that are going to be most easily replaced and those that have low exposure so AI cannot do most of these things then they will not be impacted by AI and less likely to be replaced. So this paper is a little less clear and a little bit more annoying to derive what are these jobs that are going to be more easily replaced you kind of have to like infer from graphs over here that for example show high exposure and low complementarity so it's this little like I don't know what this is this this place over here so on professionals and then there's more on clerical support workers more on technicians and service and sales workers Okay so here's our final list. By the way I want to mention that I'm doing this very conservatively only eliminating roles that show rapidly significantly declining number of positions. This particularly includes almost all clerks like bookkeeping, accounting, auditing, file clerks, mail clerks, account clerks, payroll clerks, etc. It also includes a lot of roles in the finance cluster finance and insurance finance and banking services so this one is kind of surprising to me there was actually quite a few jobs included in the human services including child care workers as well as social workers so a lot of different social workers Another heavily impacted cluster is in marketing especially in professional sales. This includes advertising sales agents, cashiers, sales workers, sales people, retail sales, and sales representation and telemarketers. So yes this is a quick overview so do check out the document for more specifics. I also want to point out that things in environmental services and natural resources is not really impacted. Construction is also not really impacted nor is teaching and education nor the roles in health sciences and health care are not significantly declining they are actually in fact increasing. So going back to this table of new jobs and lost jobs both of the resources concur that these are the roles that will have the greatest amount of growth so anything that's related to AI and machine learning specialists so anything that supports or develops AI or machine learning including business intelligence analysts, information security analysts, data analysts, and scientists. Sustainability and jobs that focused on the environment is also rapidly increasing and hardware such as robotics. Workers in the trades is still rapidly increasing in demand and those in the education system also has more jobs that are created and I'll also link this in the description if you want to check out this list. These are the jobs that are going to be eliminated or have significantly smaller number of these roles available which accounts for this percentage of all jobs. So now that we've eliminated a lot of these jobs you may be thinking oh shit one of these is my jobs what to do? If your job is going to be one of those that are going to be impacted there are two things that you can do. The first one is for people who may be thinking I really really like my job and I feel kind of like stressed and sad that maybe this job is gonna go away but there's actually ways of tweaking this role into a job that is not only more protected from AI but can actually give you much more of an edge so having the use of AI is actually going to make you more productive be even better at it more employable and have more opportunities. But first I want to talk about the second thing that you should be considering which is if you find yourself in a role that is going to be highly likely to be impacted to be automated by AI and you're kind of like meh about it you're like I have this job it's it's good it's comfortable it's decent but it's not like I love it so much it's not like I see like so much potential and I see myself doing it forever what I want you to do is really reflect on yourself like what is that thing that you just really wish that you wanted to do maybe it's something that in the past for some reason you ended up not doing it and you're like maybe I'm too old for this there's like too many things going on my life I don't know like something like that this is probably one of the best times to actually change that and look at the careers that are going to be least impacted most protected from AI and those that are going to be increasing the most in the next few years then what I want you to do is go look at job postings specific to what you want to do what are the qualifications that you're missing what are the skills that you currently lack and come up with a plan to achieve those by the way there are a lot of ways for you to achieve this plan it's not necessarily like you have to go back into school and go get an entire different degree especially now with online learning with the help of AI is becoming so much easier I also have homework for you either go reach out in your network or go on LinkedIn and cold message 10 people who have the role that you want to be in ask them what it is that their job entails ask them what it is that they did to get that role and ask them about how AI is affecting what it is that they're doing with that you are well equipped and you have a path towards your goal now now if what you're most interested in is taking on more of a technical role as we've seen the jobs that are most protected and has the most growth in the next few years are in the sector of tech especially those that leverage artificial intelligence so if you're interested you should check out course careers who is kindly sponsoring this video thank you course careers now if you're thinking that changing into a career that's really technical requires a significant amount of school let's debunk that myth course careers is changing the way that people start their careers even replacing college many of their graduates don't have any previous experience or degree yet can out-compete college graduates and people with experience in the job and this is because their education is perfectly aligned to entry-level positions and teaches you everything you need to get that job from start to finish no fluff in their program they have industry professionals that provide unlimited coaching so you can get mentorship from people already working in industry so in this case they do the job for you in reaching out to your network and to ask people what it is that they're doing in their jobs they also have employers on their platform that would request interviews from course career graduates and top students could get a job without even applying this i am a huge fan of because there's no faster and better way to learn than to just directly learn the skills that are required for a job let's just look at the pricing this is really affordable especially if you think about the return on investment by for most people increasing their salary in one of these tech roles given what we talked about today i would personally especially recommend the software engineering track because more and more of these ai roles require a strong background in software engineering students go through a fundamentals course and this is what's going to help you adapt and learn these new technologies very quickly after the foundational course students can then also specialize in targeted front-end back-end or devops which will allow them to quickly get a job now if you're interested course careers has a free introductory course so you can click the link in description to sign up and learn exactly how you can start a career in software engineering without any previous experience or a degree thank you again course careers for sponsoring today's video now back to the video okay now talking about the second thing that you can do if you are someone that has a job that can be highly automatable or impacted by ai in the next few years if you really love your job don't worry it'll be okay in fact it'll be better than okay now that you know there's skills that you can learn there's ways that you can actually tweak your job by embracing the new technologies that are coming out for example people are always going to have demand for art and entertainment in order to keep yourself relevant and to actually have even more opportunities learn how to use ai tools that help you become more productive and more creative for example ai art from dali or mid journey and with ai videos it's clearly a space that there's so much progress in like sora that just came out keep up with this kind of news and when available try those out for yourself as another example we saw a job that is decreasing significantly is going to be security guards the idea of having security is not going to go away people need that but maybe it's no longer going to be you standing there in person and making sure everything is safe think about the principles and systems of good security and think about how do i use ai and these new technologies to enhance it maybe going to robotics just throwing some ideas out there by embracing this technology you're not only preparing yourself by being the first people to adopt it and to secure your own career but you're actually be able to take advantage of ai to open up a lot of new opportunities for yourself and help you send out in a sea of applications now the final thing that i encourage everybody to focus on is the ability to self-study to be good at self-studying you need to be able to keep up with all the technologies that are happening right now and incorporating them into what you're doing so in the worst case scenario even if you see the writing on the wall for what you're doing right now you can pivot to something else this is a that will serve you again and again throughout your career and give you the confidence to pursue anything that you want to pursue all right and that's all i have for you guys today thank you all so much for watching and i'll see you in the next video or live stream