【袁紅冰熱點】1.內幕：中共外交部就美大選早已接到習近平最高指令…前不久王毅…2.川普講他一天就可結束俄烏戰爭！為什麼要結束？憑什麼？底氣？3.賴清德執政風格令世界耳目一新…

Recently, there have been changes in the U.S. presidential election and the Democratic presidential candidate has attracted a lot of attention from the outside world. The current president Biden announced his re-election, and Biden's deputy Harris became the Democratic presidential candidate. It is reported that the U.S. presidential election will have an impact on the international situation in the future, especially the impact on the Taiwan Strait situation, which is still one of the focus of attention from the outside world. I interviewed a well-known Australian legal scholar, political commentator Professor Yuan Hongbin. Hello, Professor Yuan. The U.S. President Biden recently announced in the White House that he would give up running for re-election. There are many rumors about Biden's re-election. What do you think of Biden's re-election? The reason for Biden's re-election is actually very simple and clear. It was a gunshot case that happened not long ago. Trump had a very heroic performance. After being shot and injured, he shouted to fight. This kind of performance has made Trump a hero of the United States. In contrast, Biden has been showing signs of old age for quite some time. And his four years in office did have a lot of dissatisfaction with American society. It can also be said that in this situation, if Biden continues to run for re-election, there is only one result, which is re-election. So he caused great concern within the Democratic Party. That is, under such a background, he had no choice but to withdraw from the presidential election. It is reported by overseas media that news of President Biden's announcement of his re-election has once been on the top search engine of China's online micro-blog. The Beijing authorities said they would not comment. What do you think of the Beijing authorities' reaction? The CCP has always been very concerned about the U.S. election. And more than a year ago, the CCP's Ministry of Foreign Affairs had received instructions from Xi Jinping's top authorities to make a strong impact on the U.S. election as the most important task for U.S. diplomacy. Because the entire CCP has a basic estimate, that is, the U.S. election in 2024, no matter what the final result is, it is possible that the U.S. will enter a state of political and social division again, even more serious than the last U.S. election. The CCP guarantees that such an event is expected to be a window period for them to launch a Taiwan Strait war. That is, after the U.S. election, from 2025 to 2027, they are sure that this period is the window period for launching a Taiwan Strait war. So the entire U.S. diplomacy is fully involved in the U.S. election, and the process of the U.S. election has a positive impact on the CCP's tyranny. This is a basic task for the entire CCP's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Not long ago, according to the People's Commission of the CCP, Wang Yi, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the CCP, has sent a report to the Central Committee of the CCP, asking the Central Committee of the CCP to coordinate the CCP's foreign propaganda. In this report, Wang Yi made two requirements for the propaganda of the U.S. election. The first requirement is to use the CCP's propaganda, to use the CCP's words, to deeply expose the ideological and political differences between the two parties in the U.S. To deeply expose the differences between the two parties in the U.S. The focus of the current debate is no longer the general policy and direction of the country, but the basic ideological and values ​​differences. To deeply expose this difference will further tear down the American society. This is Wang Yi's first requirement for the CCP's diplomatic propaganda. The second requirement is that Wang Yi said that General Secretary Xi Jinping once instructed that the U.S. diplomacy should make the worst plan, and strive for the best result. The so-called worst plan is to prepare the U.S. to finally negotiate with the CCP on the Taiwan Strait issue, and to prepare for the worst situation. At the same time, the best result is to continue to weaken the U.S.'s will and national energy to intervene in the Taiwan Strait war through diplomatic action. Wang Yi, according to Xi Jinping's so-called instruction, he proposed that the current analysis of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Trump's possibility of re-election as President of the United States is a high probability event. The failure of He Jinli is also a high probability event. So in this case, the CCP's propaganda must follow what Xi Jinping said, the U.S. diplomacy must be prepared for the worst, and at the same time strive for the best result. That is, the current public propaganda should have a negative attitude towards He Jinli in order to win Trump's favor. These are the two requirements proposed by the CCP's Ministry of Foreign Affairs for U.S. propaganda. Because the Ministry of Foreign Affairs itself does not care about propaganda, propaganda is not managed by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, so Wang Yi must report to the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. Through the coordination of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the two current principles of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' propaganda against the CCP's U.S. diplomacy will be realized. There is also a media analysis that if Trump is elected, Once Trump is elected, his violence against the CCP will be tougher than the current Biden administration. This is not just an attitude problem. Once Trump is elected, he will cause a major change in geopolitics around the world. That is, the U.S. will shift its strategic focus from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region and Taiwan Strait. The change in U.S. strategic focus will inevitably lead to a change in the entire Western world and even the global international political center. Because there is a basic concept in the entire Trump team that the CCP's tyranny is the main enemy of the United States, the main opponent. Although Russia still has nuclear weapons, but due to Russia's extremely fragile economy, the GDP of Russia's economy is less than that of China's in Guangdong. So Russia will not be able to form a global challenge to the United States in any way. We will discuss Trump's way of ending Russian-European war. Because of Xi Jinping's implementation of this strategy of communist totalitarianism and global expansion, it has directly threatened the interests of the United States in the world. It is under such a large international political situation that we say that the U.S. attitude towards the CCP's tyranny will be even stronger. According to a comprehensive report by overseas media, the CCP and Russian bombers recently conducted joint patrols near the Asian-American-Mainland border, which is not far from the United States and Alaska. It is reported that these fighters once flew at an altitude of 200 nautical miles from the Alaskan coast. There is an analysis that this is the latest sign that Moscow and Beijing are continuing to strengthen military cooperation. What do you think if Trump is elected, how will it affect the strategic alliance between Xi Jinping and Putin? There are two possibilities. This is actually a matter of great concern to the international community. The first possibility is that Trump said that he could end the Russian-European war in one day. So why did he say that? Where is his confidence? The most fundamental reason why Ukraine can continue to fight Russia is that it has received the full support of the Biden administration, from economic aid to military aid. If the U.S. withdraws its economic aid, military aid and even diplomatic aid to Ukraine, Ukraine will no longer be able to fight Russia in a comprehensive way. So the way Trump said he would end the Russian-Ukrainian war, I think he is going to ask Ukraine to exchange land for peace and end the Russian-Ukrainian war. Of course, Russia will also make appropriate compromises. But in this case, the relationship between Russia and the CCP will have a very sensitive impact. The reason why Russia and the CCP are now forming a modern axis is that it is under great pressure from Europe and the United States. It is under great pressure from the Ukrainian battlefield. Under this great pressure, it has no choice but to link its fate to the CCP. But once the Russian-Ukrainian war ends, and after it ends, if the U.S. and Europe can strategically extend their influence to Russia, then there is a great possibility that the so-called top-notch strategic partnership between the CCP and Russia will be divided. Once the alliance between Russia and the CCP has a crack, then the CCP's strategic alliance in the entire world diplomatic layout will also shake at random. In this case, it will greatly weaken the CCP's ability to launch a Taiwan Strait war. This is one aspect of the impact. But there may also be another impact. The Biden administration once solemnly promised that its support for Ukraine would be as strong as a rock. If Trump withdraws his support for Ukraine through what I just said, and forces Ukraine to make major concessions and compromises in negotiations with Russia, then people will naturally have serious doubts about the credibility of the U.S. promise. If you think about the U.S. withdrawal of troops from Vietnam and Afghanistan, then the credibility of the U.S. to the allies around the world will be greatly reduced. This may also shake the credibility of the U.S. to the allies in the Asia-Pacific region. This is a possible negative effect. As for how to use the U.S.'s strategic focus to actively influence the transition from Europe to Asia, and limit its negative effects, if Trump can re-enter the White House, it will depend on Trump's political wisdom and his ruling team. What impact will the U.S. election have on the Taiwan Strait situation? This is also a focus of foreign attention. What do you think will be the difference between Trump's election and He Jinli's election? If He Jinli is elected, then He Jinli will not have a major change in national policy. He personally does not have the ability to create a new political model or political direction. From his previous re-election experience, he can only be a policy based on the original policy of the Biden administration. It is difficult to make a major historical innovation. If Trump is elected president, he will be more powerful against the CCP's tyranny. This kind of more powerful specific performance or concentrated performance is that he will strike back more powerfully. The CCP's tyranny is a civil war against Taiwan's freedom. This will create an extremely powerful international environment for Taiwan. So in terms of Taiwan's internal situation, not long after Lai Qingde was elected president of Taiwan, we heard a saying that Cai Gui and Lai Sui's public opinion rose. It is obvious that someone is trying to make Lai Qingde live under the influence of Tsai Ing-wen and live in the shadow of the past. There is a kind of public opinion that the Biden administration also supports Cai Gui and Lai Sui. But we can see that Lai Qingde has only been in office for more than two months. With his toughness, courage, wisdom, and rampant integrity, he shows a clear political personality. First of all, in the face of Xi Jinping and the CCP's military, he is more and more blatantly showing his commitment to the fight for Taiwan's freedom. Lai Qingde is calm and unwavering, showing the iron will to protect Taiwan's national security and the sovereignty of the people. The military and people of Taiwan, which the president has led, have never been formed like Lai Qingde after he was in office. They are fighting together to defend their homeland. The public opinion spread by various politicians and people in Lanying is like a ghost crying in the night. There is more and more market in Taiwan. In April 2024, the world's public opinion noticed that Fu Kunqi, the head of the party of the Legislative Yuan of Lanying, led 17 KMT legislators to form a Taiwan-China visit group to visit Beijing to accept the CCP's face-to-face meeting. After returning to Taiwan, they launched a movement to destroy the CCP in the Legislative Yuan. Facing such a severe situation, Lai Qingde awakened the national identity of Taiwan as a whole and the consciousness of Taiwan as a community of destiny, uniting Taiwan society, and pacifying the chaos in the Legislative Yuan together. Under the concept of national identity as a whole in Taiwan, we can see that the 17 KMT movement is named to guard democratic constitutionalism, and to stop the civil movement between Taiwan and the CCP that destroys constitutionalism. Like the sea and the sky, the wind rises and the clouds rise, showing the strong energy of Taiwan's democratic politics hidden in Taiwan society. He is both the president of Taiwan and the chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party. Lai Qingde, under his spiritual guidance, sent the Democratic Progressive Party to the Legislative Yuan to play a heroic political game Although the number of people was weak, and the vote was lost, the blue and white two-party as the CCP's agents and local allies, the political conspiracy that undermines the normal and sustainable operation of Taiwan's free administration won the understanding and support of Taiwan society for the Democratic Progressive Party. The so-called reform of the Congress that is based on the blue and white unity, the Presidential Office, the Administrative Yuan, the Supervisory Yuan, the Legislative Yuan, and the Democratic Progressive Party applied to the judge in advance. Therefore, the political conspiracy of the blue and white two parties to destroy constitutionalism suffered a major setback. The more commendable thing is that Lai Qingde strives to return to the political idealism of the Democratic Progressive Party and to re-emphasize the principle of the Democratic Progressive Party's love for the country and the people in order to regain the trust of the people of Taiwan in the Democratic Progressive Party. At the same time, Lai Qingde will sweep the black charcoal as the top priority of the administration. As we all know, the former mayor of Taoyuan City was the vice president of the Taiwan Administrative Yuan, Zheng Wencan. He was a popular political star during Tsai Ing-wen's time. In fact, he was a senior official who was corrupt and corrupt. Seven years ago, Taiwan's reduction has completed the investigation procedure for his corruption. However, it has not been able to bring him to justice. After Lai Qingde became president, the bureaucratic corruption of the officialdom did not need to be the same party. The righteousness of the people shows the selflessness of the national interest higher than that of the party. It requires the judicial system to be careful in the process of corruption. Of course, under the democratic system, the president cannot directly intervene in judicial cases. But the president is the leader of the people's choice. His political and legal principles have a strong influence and appeal to Taiwan society, including the ruling institutions within the judicial system. Taiwan society generally believes that Lai Qingde's corruption has been encouraged by some parties. The judicial system in Taiwan has already taken action. Not only has Zheng Wencan's corruption case, which has been going on for seven years, been reactivated, but Zheng Wencan has also been jailed. And just two days ago, the only mayor of the White House, Gao Hong'an, and Yan Kuanheng, a member of the Nationalist Party, were also severely sanctioned by the judicial system. The medical examiner sentenced them to more than seven years in prison. In addition, the mayor of the two counties of Qingzhu and Yilan was also formally accused of corruption. And he will face judicial trial. So all the signs show that in the era of Lai Qingde's free Taiwan, a continuous storm of corruption and corruption was about to break out. The president of the White House, who has committed four major crimes, Ke Wenzhe, is now in a state of panic. And some of the KMT legislators who have destroyed the country, are also suspected of fraud and other cases. On the surface, they are still in the limelight, but they have long exposed the nature of the establishment of an internal committee. Especially the leader of the KMT Legislative Council, Fu Kunqi, is called a saviour in Taiwan. And in the political and legal discourse of the CCP, he is called a labor reform liberator, a labor reform liberator. According to some people in Taiwan, Fu Kunqi's family has been monopolizing the power of the Hualien government for a long time. Corruption is rampant. These crimes are also gradually coming to light. So we can see that in an increasingly favorable international situation for Taiwan's freedom, Lai Qingde has only been in office for more than two months, and he has been exposed to the world by actual action. He is leading the Democratic Progressive Party to regain the political idealism of the local political party. He will pledge to protect Taiwan's people's sovereignty and the way of life of freedom and democracy. He will never surrender to the CCP's tyranny. He will also, through his great contributions, speak out against corruption, rectify the system, and welcome the political situation of Taiwan's society with a clear view. So in this whole big situation, in favor of the background of Taiwan's freedom, it is possible for Trump to re-enter the White House. Under the situation of a more powerful countermeasure policy against the CCP's tyranny, if Lai Qingde can continue to advance his appeal policy, he will definitely win back the support of the Taiwanese society and the support of the majority of the people for the Democratic Progressive Party. So the two important elections in Taiwan in 2026 and 2028 will be defeated by the Kuomintang, led by the powerful politicians who terrorize and sell Taiwan. At the same time, the green camp's judges, such as Huang Guocang and Chen Zhaozi, and the white party composed of 1 billion politicians of the Kuomintang, will also be defeated by the exposure of the political face of Kowloon Zhe, and will find the party spirit and political idealism of the Democratic Progressive Party again. In this way, after the two important elections in 2026 and 2028, Taiwan's democracy and rule of law will enter a more mature, more exemplary, meaningful and valuable new period. In this case, the CCP's tyranny can only find its own way to death. But from another perspective, if Trump returns to the White House, Xi Jinping will only have two choices. But every choice is a choice of death. As we just said, once Trump wins this year's U.S. election, the entire U.S. defense strategic center will be transferred from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region, and transferred to the Taiwan Strait. So as the world's Taiwan, the so-called world's Taiwan at least means that the chip that Taiwan is now making has become a focus of the world's economic strategy. So as the world's Taiwan, the fundamental national interests of the United States and the free world will be closely related. This attitude will definitely be further highlighted. The existence of defending Taiwan's independence from the CCP's tyranny, the national security of Taiwan's freedom, is to defend the fundamental national interests of the United States and the fundamental interests of the free world. Under such a situation, as we just said, Xi Jinping's invasion of Taiwan's Taiwan Strait war means that it is against the free world of the United States and human beings. So the so-called multilateralism is not easy and self-defeating. The CCP's final failure in the Taiwan Strait war is unquestionable. Therefore, in this situation, Xi Jinping still launched the Taiwan Strait war. It can only mean a choice of self-destruction. But from another perspective, if Xi Jinping is cowardly, if he dares not or delays the launch of the Taiwan Strait war, he will face another choice of death. We say that the CCP's current economic downturn What is the root cause? It can be said that Xi Jinping's absolute dictatorship is like a clasp on the neck of China's economic development. As long as this political system exists, as long as Xi Jinping's absolute dictatorship is still like a clasp on the neck of China's economic development, the CCP's economic downturn is unstoppable. In a situation where the economy is ruined and the people are suffering, if Xi Jinping cannot win the Taiwan Strait, it will be difficult to find a reason to be the fourth-highest leader of the Communist Party of China after 2027. Once he loses power, Xi Jinping will die without a burial place. In fact, he does not need others. A series of millions of enemies of the CCP's Xi Jinping power struggle that have been cleaned up including their relatives and friends and the CCP's tens of millions of two-sided officials will become Xi Jinping's executioners who have lost their power. So the conclusion is that Xi Jinping's fate can only face two choices of death. In other words, Xi Jinping has let himself walk into a dead end.