NASA's Big Problem: Starliner Stuck, Falcon 9 Failed! No Spacecraft to ISS...Weekly #16

exciting news NASA has officially confirmed star liner's return plan after significant controversy however the Intriguing detail lies in NASA's implications regarding Dragon highlighting the continued importance of spacex's spacecraft what decision has NASA recently made regarding Starliner and dragon hard to get it up and now can't get it down this succinctly captures Boeing Starliner current plight following numerous delays in June due to a helium leak and Thruster issues July brought further disappointment with an indefinite schedule amid mounting frustration NASA convened a crucial online meeting on July 10th to discuss Starliner future particularly its return plan this meeting yielded significant insights first and foremost let's address the burning question on everyone's mind how will the two astronauts return in a significant Revelation the agency stated and and then you know after that we've talked about the beautiful thing about commercial crew program is that we have two two vehicles two different systems that we could use to to return crew and two vehicles and two different systems perhaps you're as intrigued As I Am by NASA's implication the vehicle in question is likely spacex's dragon in fact it can only be dragon as there are currently no other viable options for NASA and Boeing to consider this acknowledgement finally confirms what the entire world suspected dragon is now an essential part of the plan to bring astronauts safely back but stay calm because the AFF forementioned statement does not confirm that Dragon will definitely fly to rescue the Starliner crew according to this statement Dragon will only serve as a backup solution officially added by NASA to be ready for emergencies NASA clarified this point in another statement stating so so we have a little bit more time to go through the data and then make a decision as to whe we need to do anything different but the prime option today is to return Butch and sunny on Starliner they even confirmed uh there's really been no discussion with sending another Dragon uh to to rescue the Starliner crew this indicates that while NASA has considered Dragon they remain committed to trusting their own system so is this the right choice according to NASA's recent updates they opted to delay the return schedule to thoroughly assess issues with Starliner however their plans didn't unfold as expected during discussions NASA officials acknowledged that ground testing of the reaction control system or RCS propulsion at NASA's White Sands test facility in New Mexico failed to replicate the conditions experienced by the thrusters in Flight specifically Steve Stitch NASA's commercial crew program manager disclosed that Engineers employed heaters in attempts to simulate the thermal conditions encountered during firing and sun exposure ultimately he concluded um the temperatures we've been able to achieve are not quite what we would have hoped for uh based on the flight data he added that the structures on the Starliner service module known as doghouses which house the thrusters May retain more heat than previously thought Engineers are currently evaluating whether additional tests will be necessary before shifting Focus to modeling the Thruster performance for the spacecraft's departure it's worth noting that the RCs thrusters are less intensively used for station departure and deorbiting with the actual deorbit burn performed by separate larger thrusters this is another setback for NASA and Boeing earlier this month both parties decided to indefinitely delay the schedule to simulate the Starliner incident on the ground this was intended to provide a better understanding of star liner's current issues and enable immediate repair Solutions as well as better preparation for the future unfortunately this effort did not yield the expected results but somehow they are still confident that Starliner can return home safely in the event of an emergency with the problems highlighted there's no reason at this time for me to believe that and I think many people share my concern about the return journey of the two astronauts so if the decision remains when will Starliner return in NASA's latest update the agency said NASA and Boeing continue working to increase their understanding of the Starliner spacecraft propulsion system before the return of agency astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sunni Williams to Earth from the International Space Station teams are conducting ground tests at the agency's White Sands test facility in New Mexico using a new reaction control system Thruster previously planned for use on a future Starliner flight during that teleconference Steve Stitch estimated I think some of the data suggests optimistically maybe it's by the end of July Mark nappy Boeing's vice president and Commercial crew program manager highlighted ongoing efforts by Engineers to address over 30 specific issues related to both Thruster problems and helium leaks with more than half already resolved the remaining actions are slated for completion by the end of next week future tasks involve conducting additional tests on flanges and seals within the propulsion system to pinpoint the root cause of helium leaks nappy initially suggested that some seals might be undersized and require replacement on thrusters designated for the upcoming Starliner Mission though he later clarified this point during the discussion regarding Mission completion and return timing both parties emphasized that it hinges on engineering progress and the schedule of the Dragon crew 9 Mission currently set for Mid August with the International Space Station facing capacity constraints Starliner must then undock soon to accommodate crew 9 thus any delay must not exceed this deadline as we're now Midway through July there's only half a month until Steve stitches targeted date and a month until the crew 9 schedule this leaves NASA and the boing team with limited time to resolve everything they've even accelerated their efforts to complete all tasks ahead of schedule in case Starliner cannot be repaired if necessary NASA will need to coordinate with SpaceX to launch a dragon for potential Starliner astronaut rescue followed by the crew non Mission such critical schedules require careful Planning by NASA and preparation by SpaceX for both the launch vehicle and spacecraft what are your thoughts will Starliner return as planned please comment yes or no below to join the discussion don't forget to like share the video and subscribe to the channel for more updates on SpaceX and the Aerospace industry once the decisions are finalized we'll await Boeing and NASA's next steps now let's peer into the future to see what lies ahead for this spacecraft indeed the path ahead promises to be fraught with numerous challenges and intense competition Starliner current performance suggests it faces formidable rivals in the field as mentioned earlier following Starliner return SpaceX is poised to launch its ninth crew resupply mission SpaceX has already completed nine official missions under NASA's commercial crew program along with one demo Mission all within a span of fewer than 5 years years furthermore dragon has successfully conducted four additional private missions and 30 cargo missions these figures underscore a substantial disparity between the $2.6 billion Powerhouse and the $4.5 billion dud looking ahead when NASA plans to bring Starliner back spacex's Dragon will embark on a significant Mission Polaris Dawn this challenging Endeavor that involves a space walk will once again highlight dragon's superiority over Starlight ER if the demo crew mission encounters delays it's uncertain when Starliner could undertake a similar Mission possibly extending into the next decade or Beyond looking forward to early next year dragon is scheduled to launch the crew 10 Mission roughly coinciding with Starliner 1 this stark contrast highlights the significant Gap that has emerged in just a few short years I'm confident crew 10 will launch before Starliner 1 and if you agree please comment 10 below when compared to SpaceX Boeing's Starliner faces daunting odds even in comparison to other competitors Starliner doesn't demonstrate a clear path to Victory I want to highlight Dreamchaser the new space plane from Sierra space despite not having launched yet this doesn't diminish its potential compared to Starliner while Starliner has faced numerous developmental challenges leading to scheduled delays Dreamchaser has shown promising test results its current hurdle lies in coordinating with its vehicle the Ula Vulcan ultimately the true assessment of superiority will come after its official flight personally I believe Dreamchaser could outperform Starliner if Boeing doesn't resolve its issues prly this is the future Boeing and its spacecraft face they've entered a competitive race and must now Forge ahead much hinges on the outcome of the cft-1 mission with the decision made we await developments in the coming weeks above all I hope both as astronauts return safely after what promises to be a dramatic Journey aboard the Boeing spacecraft we now have a slightly sad update regarding Falcon 99's recent Mission July 11th marked a difficult day for Falcon 9 enthusiasts who have cherished the rocket for nearly a decade as it encountered issues during the starlink launch mission launched at 10:35 p.m. EDT from SLC 4E vandenbberg space force base in California this Mission aimed to to send the group 9-3 payload into orbit the mission included 20 Starling satellites among them 13 direct to cell satellites the initial launch proceeded smoothly approximately 2 and 1/2 minutes later the separation occurred the booster then successfully returned and landed on the Drone ship after more than 8 minutes of flight the booster used in this flight b1063 completed its 19th Landing solidifying the position among the falcon9 boosters with the most launches to date following the landing an image revealed it was slightly off center on the Drone ship but this did not result in any significant issues however unlike the successful first stage operation the second stage faced significant challenges following separation from the booster the second stage engine ignited as planned however minutes later experts identified an unexpected buildup of frost on the Merlin engines cover visible as a distinct white layer approximately 5 minutes into the mission consequently subsequent steps particularly the deployment of payloads encountered issues SpaceX promptly issued an update regarding the situation during tonight's Falcon 9 launch of starlink the second stage engine did not complete its second burn as a result the starlink satellites were deployed into a lower than intended orbit this meant that the Merlin engine failed to position the second stage and payload as planned in addition to spacex's update Elon Musk commented upper stage restart to raise Pary resulted in an engine rud for reasons currently unknown team is reviewing data tonight to understand root cause upon seeing the frost layer my immediate concern was a possible liquid oxygen leak which indeed turned out to be the case SpaceX confirmed this in an update on their website Falcon 99's second stage performed its first burn nominally however a liquid oxygen leak developed on the second stage this incident will undoubtedly have significant repercussions initially engine issues during the flight prevented the payload from being deployed as scheduled in addition to spacex's update Elon Musk noted Starling satellites were deployed but the Pary may be too low for them to raise orbit he further explained we're updating satellite software to run the ion thrusters at their equivalent of warp n unlike a Star Trek episode this will probably not work but it's worth a shot the satellite thrusters need to raise orbit faster then atmospheric drag pulls them down or they burn up a positive development for SpaceX is their apparent success in reestablishing contact with these satellites initially SpaceX tweeted that they had made contact with five of the satellites and were working to raise their orbit using ion thrusters in a subsequent update they announced the team has made contact with 10 of the satellites and attempted to raise their orbit using ion thrusters certainly those initial signs were small moments of optimism however SpaceX acknowledged in a subsequent tweet but they are in an enormously High drag environment with their parache or lowest point of their elliptical orbit only 135 km above the Earth this is significantly lower than the intended altitude of the Starling system which is up to 340 km in the latest update SpaceX decided as such the satellites will reenter Earth's atmosphere and burn up they do not pose a threat to other satellites in orbit or to Public Safety the reason provided is that each pass through Pary removes 5 plus kilm of altitude from the highest point in the satellite orbit as this level of drag our maximum available thrust is unlikely to be enough to successfully raise the satellites moving into more serious developments the FAA has announced its intention to launch an official investigation into the incident involving this flight it remains to be seen how both sides will proceed in response looking ahead this incident May raise concerns about the reliability of this rocket particularly As It prepares for several critical missions later this month falcon9 is scheduled to launch the Polaris Dawn Mission marking the first private spacewalk Mission featuring new space suits next month Falcon 9 will continue with another crude mission to the ISS for NASA known as crew 9 this incident marks the end of Falcon 99's long streak of success the last failed flight prior to this was on June 28th of 2015 during the dragen CRS 7 Mission although there was another failure on September 3rd of 2016 it occurred before the flight itself since then SpaceX has maintained an impressive record of continuous successful launches establishing extreme reliability and dominance in the industry it's indeed unfortunate SpaceX will now need to conduct a thorough investigation to address and resolve the recent issue ensuring they are well prepared for upcoming missions taking a more positive view of the situation this Mission still boasts several notable achievements firstly as previously mentioned it successfully landed the booster further extending its record for landing and reuse additionally this Mission marks the 69th launch of the year for Falcon 9 pushing towards its goal of 148 launches musk highlighted in another tweet we are tracking to do more Falcon flights this year than shuttle did in 30 years the vast majority of which are uncrewed a major advantage of this super high flight rate is that we can identify and resolve problems that may only occur once every thousand flights this is impossible on a lowf flight rate vehicle this underscores the advantage of a highlight rate in improving reliability and resolving issues efficiently the recent incident has prompted SpaceX to reflect and take a more deliberate approach moving mov forward this pause for evaluation is crucial because prolonged success can sometimes lead to complacency it serves as a foundation for SpaceX to make even greater strides in the future following their developmental approach of achieving Success Through learning from failures as for us I encourage continued trust in the SpaceX team if you believe in their ability to overcome current challenges and Achieve new successes with Falcon 9 please leave the number nine in the comment section to send your wishes to SpaceX here's to the next 9 years or more of successful reliable and truly Innovative rocket launches from SpaceX on the bright side there's good news from Starship as the FAA has just provided an update on its future in Texas promising an exciting period with numerous upcoming flights all right let's kick off today with some exciting news SpaceX is ramping up its Starship project to New Heights they're aiming for 25 annual flights from Starbase you heard that correctly 25 flights this means instead of waiting several months between launches we might soon see two to three flights per month and that's just not a plan anymore it's now officially under consideration by the FAA a crucial step for spacex's Starship advancement in their latest update the agency stated we are committed to assessing the environmental impacts of all spacex's proposals FAA licensed commercial space operations we will hold public meetings on spacex's proposal to increase the number of launches and landings of the Starship SLS superheavy vehicle in Bach chica Texas in the attached document the FAA outlines specific requirements including up to 25 annual Starship superheavy orbital launches up to 25 annual Landings of Starship and up to 25 annual Landings of Superhead regarding the process the FAA indicated that its review will Encompass public safety issues such as overflight of populated areas and payload contents National Security or foreign policy concerns insurance requirements for the launch operator and potential environmental impacts in addition to the public meeting the FAA announced plans to release additional information about the draft environmental assessment for public review and comment by Late July July 2024 the agency will then host four in-person public meetings and one virtual public meeting looking ahead spacex's Starship has seen significant progress since its first integrated test flight in April of 2023 now totaling four flights with each flight SpaceX continues to make strides notably reducing the turnaround time from 7 months to 4 months then to 3 months and possibly as short as 2 months with flight 5 anticipation for early August in addition to its impressive launch capabilities SpaceX achieved a significant milestone in Flight 4 by successfully Landing both rocket stages a crucial step toward their goal of fully reusable Rockets alongside these launch achievements SpaceX is making progress on its testing and production systems including the star Factory Massy test sites and a new launch Tower these developments form the foundation for spacex's confidence in scaling up to 25 flights per year in the near future while this is a small step compared to their ambitious goal of thousands of launches annually it represents an important stride in spacex's Journey to explore and expand beyond Earth if you support spacex's Endeavors please leave a like share the video and subscribe to our channel to stay updated on their upcoming Milestones now is the time to rise up after much anticipation the second launch Tower at Starbase has been been erected marking a significant milestone for the Starship project The Two Towers reminiscent of The Lord of the Rings meanwhile flight 5's Hardware B12 underwent crucial testing upon its arrival at the launch site as we enter 2024 alongside the flurry of flights significant advancements in launch systems have captured considerable attention the excitement surged several months ago with the expansion and refurbishment of the suborbital launch Site Area at Starbase since then segments of the tower have been steadily delivered while the arrival and recent testing of the giant crane T-Rex have prepared it for stacking as of July 3rd the initial segment was transported from the Sanchez site to the launch site where the tower Foundation had been previously completed following a series of minor preparations on the afternoon of July 10th the crane was erected and extended using a rope and hook system the pyramid-shaped hook system includes Four Corners to secure it to the corresponding corners of the tower segment by the morning of the 11th the first Tower segment had been hoisted onto the tower Foundation subsequently it likely underwent welding and additional reinforcements to ensure structural Integrity exciting times ahead this pivotal step marks a significant milestone for the Starship project it Heralds an era where where flights of this colossal rocket will occur with increasing frequency moreover it opens the door to envisioning the potential of fully landing and reusing Rockets with the mechazilla arm a feat unprecedented in the Aerospace industry let's mark this Milestone as evidence to Showcase why SpaceX stands apart from the rest after stacking this segment I believe the remaining segments will soon follow suit everything is likely to progress rapidly with further stacking potentially occurring this week or next according to the FAA update SpaceX must complete the first six segment stack in configuration one by the July 27th deadline leaving just about 2 weeks to stack the next five segments the coming weeks at Starbase are going to be incredibly busy following the completion of configuration 1 SpaceX will proceed to configuration 2 aiming to finalize the launch tower construction configuration 2 is scheduled to span approximately 3 weeks from July 27th to August 15th during this phase the remaining three segments will be stacked to complete the fundamental structure of the tower I speculate that these three segments may include the ninth segment intended for placement at the top of the tower along with two segments currently on route to Starbase regarding these two segments and the Chopstick section these components have been arriving at the Port of Brownsville over the past few days though no movement has occurred yet however preparations are underway to to accelerate operations recently a series of road closure schedules were announced spanning 5 hours from 10: p.m. to 3:00 a.m. between July 11th and the 19th these closures are scheduled to transport two Tower segments and the Chopstick from the port of Brownsville to the Sanchez lot primary transport days include the 11th 12th 14th 16th and the 18th with additional dates as Alternatives this effort aims to gather all Tower segments at Star Base by next week underscoring spacex's commitment to completing the launch tower on schedule as we're currently in mid July I anticipate dedicating an episode in August to discuss developments once the launch Tower stacking is complete following the completion of configuration 2 SpaceX will have more than 5 months to finalize the remaining systems I anticipate they will construct the orbital launch Mount or olm for short install the mechazilla arm and quick disconnect or QD systems establish new tank farms and Implement water and fuel connection systems another intriguing question is what SpaceX will build beneath the olm whether it will be a flame trench or a watercooled steel plate similar to the first Launchpad share your predictions in the comments section down below certainly the deadlines set by the FAA are just estimates given spacex's rapid progress everything might be completed ahead of schedule it would be fantastic if the new tower could be operational in upcoming coming flights I speculate it might debut on flight 7 but ideally it could even be ready for flight 6 if everything aligns perfectly in any case a new chapter for Starship has begun many more exciting developments lie ahead so please like the video share it and also subscribe to our channel to stay updated on spacex's journey of development progress on tower construction isn't the only exciting development preparations for flight 5 are also ramping up beginning with B12 in recent days based on the extended closure schedule I predicted a static fire test would occur unfortunately no such test took place as scheduled however SpaceX unexpectedly conducted another test with B12 the cryogenic test signs of this began the day before with venting observed on the booster on the evening of July 10th by noon on July 11th the venting process continued with frost appearing in the liquid oxygen tank area indicating fuel loading into the booster as the fuel amount increased the frost Rose higher accompanied by intensified venting in fact this test involved two fuel loading processing processes initially the liquid oxygen tank appeared to be filled to only 50% capacity around 12:20 p.m. about 20 minutes into the test Frost was observed on half of the liquid oxygen tank indicating partial fuel loading shortly afterward the frost subsided suggesting fuel had been unloaded from the booster around 1:00 p.m. Frost Frost began to reappear this time SpaceX appeared to fully load the liquid oxygen tank with fuel again within about 20 minutes frost covered the entire liquid oxygen tank area indicating complete fuel loading following this a similar process of fuel unloading occurred the entire test lasted about an hour and a half with no reported problems afterward indicating its success while many may be disappointed not to have witnessed the static fire test I believe preparations will accelerate to meet Elon musk's Target for flight 5 around early August the cryogenic test despite having occurred 6 months after b12's previous test in January remains crucial it ensures spacex's fuel tank system operates effectively mitigating risks for subsequent critical processes like static Fire w dress rehearsal and the official flight excitement continues to build at Starbase so stay tuned for upcoming milestones in launch Vehicles launch systems flights and more from the SpaceX team unbelievable the final journey of BL turned out to be more dramatic than expected with reports of a significant explosion what exactly transpired flight four concluded with numerous successes notably achieving the Milestone of Landing both stages on Starship for the first time during the live flight broadcast the camera angle showed only a brief glimpse of flames as b11 made contact with the water this limited view left viewers uncertain about the events unfolding subsequently SpaceX provided an alternate angle reval feeling a fire near the booster just before it reached the water however the camera quickly reverted to the original live stream perspective preventing a clear understanding of B 111's final moments in its Journey but astonishingly recent sources have unveiled new images from a different angle purportedly captured by a buoy SpaceX deployed to photograph the Rocket's Landing these images reveal a startling Revelation there was an explosion previously we had understood there was a fire at b11 but this new disclosure is truly astounding many May initially doubt the authenticity of this image but analyses by lab Padre and the space engineer examining lens angles signal light effects from buoys and comparisons with previous incidents strongly suggest its validity now examining the images reveals a significant explosion notable for its large mushroom shaped cloud estimates place the explosion at approximately 210 to 260 m in diameter the formation of a mushroom cloud indicates the release of energy at lower pressure compared to the surrounding air supporting the arguments regarding the explosion lab Padre also released infrasound measurement data from The b11 Landing process the data illustrates a pattern where sound waves diminish after the booster engine cut off and shut down intensifying during critical phases such as boost back burn Landing burn and the suspected time of the explosion particularly around the estimated explosion time the infrasound waves appeared down dense and robust indicating heightened activity on the booster during that period this may explain the sustained Flames observed in the live video when the booster touches the water previously it was speculated that these Flames were caused by the engine hitting the water spilling fuel onto the surface however the explosion hypothesis now provides a clearer and more compelling explanation for these observations basically the analysis suggests that after the tipping over process the booster's fuel tank might have been damaged causing fuel to leak and mix this scenario is reminiscent of the sn10 incident in 2021 where the Prototype exploded due to methane fuel leaking into the liquid oxygen tank additionally a potential issue with the fuel line could have caused the failure of a middle ring engine this problem might have led to a more substantial fuel leak contributing to the large explosion of course this analysis is based on Expert data and observations for defend ative confirmation we still need to wait for an official statement from SpaceX even if that's true there's no need to worry explosions are quite normal during test flights these tests often involve ocean Landings where the engine heats up during operation while the fuel tank remains relatively cold contact with water can cause a sudden temperature shock potentially leading to system issues additionally the fuel systems inside Starship are complex which keeps the risk level high these issues are lik to decrease as SpaceX upgrades its rockets and implements new Landing methods such as catching with a mechazilla arm or landing on a drone ship these methods will enhance Precision however SpaceX must address the problems that could lead to explosions in both the ship and super heavy if the mechazilla arm Landing method is used an explosion could damage critical systems like the Chopstick or launch Tower resulting in failed catching attempts therefore SpaceX must leverage all available data to enhance its systems all eyes are now on B12 and s30 the prototypes slated for the upcoming flight s30 has undergone significant changes in its heat shield system aimed at improving re-entry and Landing safety compared to s29 Meanwhile B12 has been stationed in meabay for an extended period sparking curiosity about the modifications it will showcase these details will come to light during its rollout to the launch SES for the upcoming static fire test nonetheless SpaceX continues to advance its systems steadily b11 and s29 played pivotal roles in achieving spacex's Milestone of fully Landing the rocket for the first time this achievement sets the stage for future flights to accomplish new Milestones aligning with Elon musk's Vision which was recently affirmed SpaceX will colonize Mars but let's take a moment for a small discussion what are your thoughts on the Intriguing Revelations surrounding the explosion of b11 let's continue this in the comment section down below don't forget to like share and subscribe to the channel to stay updated on spacex's Journey this is unbelievable following blue origin Ula has now filed a lawsuit against the FAA to block spacex's Starship Florida plan citing concerns not only about environmental impacts but also questioning starship's ability to reach the moon and Mars it's ironic that a company grappling with rocket launch and financial challenges is casting doubt on spacex's cas capabilities what exactly did Ula highlight what are their intentions behind this move and how will SpaceX counter these criticisms and demonstrate their capabilities challenges in development are a given for any organization and SpaceX is no exception ironically their toughest hurdles often arise from their competitors just recently blue Origins sparked controversy with their commentary aimed at restricting Starship operations in Florida not long after another SpaceX rival Ula joined the fry Ula CEO Tor Bruno recently penned a comprehensive 22-page critique highlighting numerous issues with the faa's Starship Florida environmental impact statement or Eis for short and spacex's plans Beyond environmental concerns and impacts on local systems in Florida Ula also emphasized perceived limit limitations of Starship that could hinder spacex's ambitious goals of reaching the moon and Mars specifically section two of ula's comment article highlights two main issues first concerning starship's progress Ula States as a threshold matter the Eis must acknowledge that Starship is still in its experimental stages and that spacex's planned operations at LC 39a have evolved and continue to evolve Starship is the largest rocket ever built and it is currently tested at spacex's private base in Bach chica Texas in Prior test flights SpaceX has experienced several technical accidents next addressing starship's capabilities Ula added SpaceX has acknowledged that the vehicle is not meeting anticipated performance levels as a result SpaceX plans to increase the size and thrust levels of the vehicle stages to address this performance shortfall this would result in environmental and safety issues greater than those witnessed at Bach chica then Ula extends the problem to the Starship plan in Florida SpaceX intends to launch a much larger model at LC 39a than it is currently testing in Bach chica in April of 2024 SpaceX revealed plans to at minimum quadruple payload capability to make up for shortfalls in predicted performance Starship will eventually be 492 ft tall roughly 20% higher than the current massive system aboard the super heavy rocket the super heavy booster is expected to hold up to 4,100 metric tons of propellant and Starship up to 2,600 metric tons the maximum liftoff thrust is anticipated at 103 Mega Newtons the resulting launch impacts would far exceed current impacts seen during Bach chica launches additional growth of the Starship launch vehicle may be planned if performance continues to fall below expectations and in conclusion Ula emphasized given these changes the Eis must perform a comparative analysis between current usage impacts and the proposed operations with a rocket proposed to be more than double the size of any currently licensed launch vehicle and with increased frequency of launches not only Ula but many analyses also Express skepticism regarding SpaceX Starship and emis 3 recently NASA's assessment of Artemis 3's schedule estimated a 1 in three chance of a delay of up to 1 and 1/2 years potentially pushing the mission to February of 2028 this estimate stems from a confirmation review conducted late last year which set a scheduled Baseline of February 2028 for the project with a 70% joint confidence level this indicates a high probability that emis 3 will not be ready before February of that year these estimates pertain specifically to the Starship hls without considering other aspects such as SLS Orion spacecraft and the new luner spacit not only estimates but many analyses also point out starship's problems firstly Elon musk's April presentation revealed that by V2 or version two Starship will reach more than 100 tons while the current version likely falls short of that Mark this shortfall makes it challenging to achieve the capabilities needed to colonize Mars Starship V3 promises a 200 ton capacity but its application timeline remains unclear the second problem is the complexity of the refueling system with the current payload capacity consumption rates and energy evaporation estimates suggest that approximately 16 flights would be needed to resupply Starship hls even with V3 boasting 4,050 tons of fuel in the booster and 2,300 tons in the ship the number of missions required is still up to eight flights this number would be even higher for a mar Mission covering these needs with starship's current ground systems is a formidable challenge additionally SpaceX has yet to master this refueling method with tests scheduled for no earlier than early next year but to be fair Ula appears focused solely on current challenges without considering starship's future advancements and capabilities before we get into that I encourage you to like the video share it and subscribe to our channel to support our ongoing development regarding the NASA estimates mentioned earlier the agency maintains confidence in the September 2026 schedule stating NASA continues to have confidence in SpaceX as a provider to help achieve the Artemis 3 mission indeed there are numerous reasons to support NASA's confidence last year NASA and SpaceX conducted crucial tests with the elevator system in 2024 they continued to test astronauts activities with SPAC suits underwater to simulate the ER environment in April the two agencies performed a full-scale test with the simulated hls system while astronauts wore space suits meanwhile on the ground SpaceX is making significant improvements to the infrastructure at Starbase this includes promoting the construction of a new launch Tower expanding and applying new test systems and enhancing fuel systems the new production facility star Factory is also set to become operational soon this year we will see the first V2 prototypes emerg from this factory in Florida the new tower has been under construction for some time the recent Eis has revealed many potential plans such as developing Starship V3 completing the launch system building a catch Tower and landing on drone ships regarding the overall progress SpaceX is also aiming to complete the Starship stage catching attempts this year next year they will test the ship-to ship refueling system after having completed the tank-to-tank test in Flight 3 turning back to Ula their common article clearly reveals their true intentions it's quite transparent much like blue origin Ula is attempting to slow down spacex's development we all know that to achieve the moon or Mars goals Starship will need to launch frequently to ensure reliability however this progress risks overshadowing other Rockets like Vulcan and new Glenn Bruno in response to staff writer Christian Davenport's tweet about Ula and blue Origins comment said I'd prefer not not to shut down SLC 41 this statement clearly indicates the company's apprehension regarding the development of Starship looking back at vulcan's progress ula's analysis reveals its own vulnerabilities despite a successful debut earlier this year ula's rocket is currently encountering numerous scheduling issues stemming from challenges in customer and payload selection moreover the prolonged delays of Vulcan over the years have incurred substantial Financial losses potentially positioning the company for acquisition by new owners technologically ula's Rockets have also faced significant challenges last year Vulcan experienced leaks in its Centaur second stage a problem that also surfaced during the recent Starliner cft1 Mission with the atlas Rockets Centaur stage in terms of capabilities ula's Rockets do not measure up to Starship for instance Vulcan stands at a height of only 67.3 M with a diameter of 5.4 capable of delivering a approximately 27 tons to low earth orbit and around 12.1 tons for Trans lunar injection payloads these figures Place Vulcan roughly on par with Falcon 9 and Below Falcon Heavy's capabilities therefore criticism of starship's capabilities from Ula appears somewhat laughable given these comparative metrics reflecting on ula's criticism they contend that criticism they contend that spacex's rocket cannot meet its schedule however as SpaceX pushes forward with the Starship Florida plans and advances Starship V3 Ula stands out as a major obstacle to these efforts when considering ula's capabilities for projects like Artemis or Mars colonization their track record does not Inspire confidence whether it's government or military payload launch markets Vulcan has led Ula to lose market share to SpaceX this raises questions about Ula suitability for larger goals in response to recent criticisms from Blue origin and Ula Jared isikman remarked on Twitter I would think Ula and blue origin should spend more time on their product and capabilities isikman is an American entrepreneur pilot philanthropist and Commercial astronaut he's the founder and CEO of shift for payments a Payment Processing Company and the founder of dren international a private Air Force provider isman is also known for his space tourism Endeavors having commanded the inspir pration for Mission the first all civilian space flight to orbit Earth which launched on September 16th of 2021 aboard spacex's crew Dragon resilience additionally he is set to command the Polaris Dawn Mission part of a series of missions named the Polaris program isman is recognized for his philanthropic efforts including a significant donation to St Jude Children's Research Hospital as part of the inspiration 4 Mission if you agree with his statement please respond with yes in the comment section down Below in the meantime SpaceX is tackling the many challenges on the road to the moon and Mars and they're doing it better than anyone else unlike Ula or blue origin who often criticize SpaceX is making real progress let's rally behind SpaceX and Achieve those Monumental goals together do you realize what this is it's like catching Rockets with chopsticks an idea that distinguishes SpaceX from the rest but wait take a closer look it wasn't Starship and its catching system in the image this is actually from China a country that has replicated spacex's system numerous times faced with this imitative strategy SpaceX often chooses silence but not this time enter Elon Musk spacex's founder who has officially responded so how did Elon react how will the battle between creators and imitators unfold in recent years China has emerged as a formidable competitor to the US us across various fronts in the Aerospace industry one of their strategies albeit somewhat controversial involves replicating ideas from industry leaders currently SpaceX the world's Premier Aerospace company finds itself most frequently imitated by China following several copied prototypes China has once again surprised both SpaceX and the world with a new imitation catching Rockets with chopsticks a feat even SpaceX hasn't achieved with Starship recently images simulating this process has surfaced on X this effort comes from Cosmo leip a startup founded just this year yep you heard that right they were established only a few months ago through these images we can clearly Trace their development road map let's first examine their rocket catching system it's strikingly similar to the one SpaceX is building for Starship the launch Tower Stands Tall on a sturdy steel structure reaching an expected height of about 150 M at the top of the tower a system of two robust steel arms dubbed Chopstick or mechazilla arms is mounted these arms are designed to move vertically facilitating tasks such as lifting stacking unstacking and even catching rockets at first glance one might mistake this for spacex's system musk himself reacted to the image with a tweet saying look familiar what's your take on Elon musk's response if you agree drop a yes in the comments to share your thoughts also don't forget to like share the video and subscribe to the channel to stay updated on spacex's exciting Journey this scenario feels familiar because it's an idea SpaceX has long pursued and previously unveiled currently SpaceX operates two Tower systems one in Starbase Texas and another in Florida additionally they are in the process of constructing a new tower system at Starbase slated for operational use later this year moreover SpaceX is gearing up for a rocket recovery initiative using the mechazilla arm this year beginning with attempts to catch super heavy on its upcoming flight this Swift imitation by the Chinese company underscores their tendency to replicate without necessarily grasping the underlying principles of the system evident from their haste to emulate space AIS technology even before its successful demonstration in the image recently revealed Cosmo leap isn't just mimicking spacex's rocket catching tower system they're also replicating spacex's launch vehicle take another look do their Rockets seem familiar to you it appears to be a blend of Falcon 9 and Starship notice the white rocket booster in the picture seemingly crafted from carbon fiber Akin to Falcon 9 It Sports Net fins near at the top for guiding the rocket below nine engines are arranged in an octagonal pattern reminiscent of Falcon 9 what sets it apart resembling Starship is the absence of Landing legs a design conducive to caching methods and other systems like the olm or orbital launch Mount this amalgamation is intriguing I'm particularly curious about its second stage in their plans for deploying Mega Internet satellite constellations with this rocket could this be another imitation let's wait and see beyond Cosmo leap a broader look reveals several SpaceX Concepts surfacing in this country's Aerospace industry last year Cas space introduced a vehicle strikingly reminiscent of spacex's and blue Origins Innovations its booster resembles new Shepherds while the capsule mirrors dragon in color design and overall appearance similarly space Epoch has been testing a rocket model closely resembling Starship in both shape and size ratio the stainless steel construction synonymous with Starship is immediately apparent although the design remains rudimentary compared to spacex's Advanced prototype land space made headlines last year with their ju rocket a pioneering Venture in China's use of liquid methane as a rocket fuel a Hallmark Innovation also adopted by SpaceX 4 Starship recently another rocket Making Waves is space Pioneers tiang long the tong long 3 which recently encountered a static fire test failure stands 71 M tall with a diameter of 3.8 M and a weight between 500 to 600 tons stats comparable to Falcon 9 like the Falcon 9 it features nine booster engines and a second stage vacuum engine fueled by liquid oxygen and kerosene its liftoff thrust of 770 tons or 1.7 million pound matches that of Falcon 9 additionally it boasts Landing legs a fairing and git Vin Ain to Falcon 9 it's not just private companies government agencies like the China Aerospace science and Technology Corporation or casc also have adopted SpaceX technology for their Long March 9 rocket unlike its Expendable predecessors Long March 9 is designed as a reusable heavy lift rocket the road map for Long March 9 envisions a final version similar to Starship featuring two stages a first stage reminiscent of super heavy and a second stage mirroring Starship complete with distinctive flaps however despite these imitations China still struggles to match spacex's prowess as the complexities of Rocket development remain a significant challenge this was evident in the recent incident involving space Pioneers T long 3 rocket during a static fire test the Rocket's booster unexpectedly lifted off from the Launchpad then plummeted back resulting in a massive explosion thankfully there were no casualties reported however this incident highlights significant issues in China's rocket development process primarily it appears that they are merely copying technology without fully comprehending its intricacies the failure during the static fire test suggests inadequate control over engine power or insufficient preparation with the testing system fundamental aspects crucial for Rocket development their initial success with the launch of tion long 2 in 2023 marking them as the first private Chinese company to reach orbit seemed to inflate their confidence in their ability to replicate technology leading to an underestimation of challenges however their approach to copying lacks a sustainable long-term road map as they Pur persist in testing and launching on land a practice that poses risks to both people and property China has a history of Rocket failures which have posed significant risks to its populace yet despite these challenges it's important to recognize that some of their imitation attempts have yielded positive outcomes landspace through its juu rocket exemplifies persistence and progress despite setbacks with juu 1 in 2018 and juu 2 in 2022 they achieved a significant Milestone with a successful launch of juu 2 in July of 2023 the first methane rocket to reach orbit by December of 2023 they further validated their capability by successfully launching and deploying a payload into orbit with the same rocket these achievements underscore why SpaceX must not underestimate their competitor and the strategy they employ looking ahead SpaceX faces two critical objectives firstly they must complete construction of the new launch Tower at Starbase this Milestone will Propel the Starship project into a new era enabling continuous rocket launches and full recoveries a distinguishing factor from competitors including China who aim to emulate their success construction of the new towers is progressing rapidly the tower base has been completed and the segments are nearly finished set for stacking to begin this month if all goes according to plan it could be operational by the Year's End another critical Milestone is catching attempts starting from flight five scheduled for late this month or early next their second goal is to catch the super heavy during this flight by a flight six they aim to recover and reuse all stages of the Starship for the first time marking a historic achievement in rocketry once SpaceX accomplishes this it will overshadow all of China's copying efforts notably those of Cosmo leap the competition between two contrasting Paths of development promises to be compelling China pursues an aggressive strategy of comprehensive copying challenging established Giants at every turn however I firmly believe that creativity and Innovation are the cornerstones of long-term success for any organization SpaceX exemplifies this philosophy a company led by talented Engineers consistently pioneering new ideas in the Aerospace industry this successful formula has kept them at the Forefront of Aerospace Innovation and it will continue to do so for the years to come moving away from SpaceX let's turn our attention to the other side of the world where a SpaceX competitor faced another setback at approximately 7:40 p.m. EDT on July 10th a Chinese company ipace launched their four stage solid rocket hyperbola 1 from Jan Spaceport the mission aimed to place the Yun one satellites into a sun synchronous orbit or SSO for short however shortly after launch ipace surprisingly announced that the Rocket's fourth stage encountered an anomaly the root cause of the failure is currently unclear ipace has indicated that specific reasons for the anomaly will be disclosed after a thorough investigation and review the company's statement did not specify the name or nature of the payloads lost on the flight H founded in 2016 in Beijing ipace also known as Beijing Interstellar Glory space technology limited made history in 2019 as the first privately funded Chinese company to achieve orbit with the solid fueled hyperbola 1 despite this Milestone the rocket has since suffered three consecutive failures the company rebounded with two successful flights in 2023 but now faces a new set back this loss comes amidst heightened concerns over China's commercial launch industry following space Pioneers recent catastrophic static fire explosion in gongi hean Province where a fully fueled first stage accidentally launched from the test bench to date isas has conducted seven hyperbola 1 missions with four resulting in failures highlighting concerns about reliability this could significantly impact their future plans including their development roadmap for hyperbola 3 this upcoming version is slated to transition to liquid fuel specifically methane and oxygen similar to spacex's Starship last November ipace successfully launched and landed a demo version of the hyperbola 3 in a test with plans for an official launch next year this underscores the immense challenge of replicating spacex's success a task ipace and others have found daunting as a leading force in Aerospace SpaceX continually serves as a model for Chinese competitors alongside I space's hyperbola and space pioneers Tang long numerous other imitative projects like land spaces XU space epoch's unnamed rocket Long March 9 and Cosmo leap's rocket catching Tower plan have emerged however the road to developing successful Rockets is fraught with challenges and mere replication does not guarantee sustainable progress with failures becoming increasingly apparent the future of these emulation efforts remains uncertain but if there's one thing to be certain about it's that SpaceX will eventually achieve their ambitious goals turning their attention Eastward Japan achieved a successful launch of their new rocket the H3 on June 30th at 11:06 p.m. EDT or July 1st at 3:6 a.m. GMT and 12:06 p.m. jst the H3 rocket lifted off from Japan's tanegashima Space Center carrying the Advanced Land observing satellite 4 also known as daichi 4 alos 4 was successfully deployed into low earth orbit as planned approximately 16 minutes after liftoff according to commentators on the webcast provided by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency the two-stage H3 rocket was developed by jaxa and Mitsubishi heavy Industries it is designed to replace Japan's h-2a rocket as the country's primary medium lift vehicle with the h2a expected to retire later this year after more than 20 years of service despite its successful deploy deployment the h3's path to orbit encounter challenges originally scheduled for a debut launch in 2020 difficulties in engine development and other issues delayed its first launch until March of 2023 following its troubled initial liftoff where the h3's upper stage engine failed to ignite resulting in the loss of the alos 3 or daichi 3 the H3 rocket made a successful comeback on its second flight in February of this year on this Mission the H3 carried a 5,900 lb pound or 2,600 kg Mass simulator as its primary payload the rocket successfully reached orbit and also deployed two small Earth observation satellites CA e and tat which were secondary payloads these efforts Mark significant achievements for Japan it remains to be seen if Japan can leverage these successes to establish itself as a new Powerhouse in Asia and the global space industry but we are excited to see what comes after well that's about it for today's episode thank you so much for tuning in as always this is Kevin from great SpaceX and until next time keep looking up