Media reports are circulating a transcript of Xi's internal speech at the Political Work Conference of the Central Military Commission in Yan'an two weeks ago. In his speech, Xi addressed the entire party, stating, "Today, we are holding a military meeting in Yan'an to prepare for a civil war. Everyone must realize that we are facing a major economic and political crisis. War has already begun. If we do not respond with war, our party and government will disintegrate."
We have all seen the establishment of police and anti-tax centers nationwide. If the coordination of police and tax forces cannot resolve the economic difficulties, a wartime economy will be launched as necessary, and the military will be deployed. A large number of personal bankruptcies, bank failures, corporate bankruptcies, and a storm that could shake political power is coming."
Media reports are circulating a transcript of Xi's internal speech at the Political Work
Conference of the Central Military Commission in Yan'an two weeks ago. In this speech,
Xi addressed the entire party, stating,
Today we are holding a military meeting in Yan'an to prepare for a civil war.
Everyone must realize that we are facing a major economic and political crisis.
War has already begun. If we do not respond with war, our party and government will disintegrate.
We have all seen the establishment of police and anti-tax centers nationwide.
If the coordination of police and tax forces cannot resolve the economic difficulties,
a wartime economy will be launched as necessary, and the military will be deployed.
A large number of personal bankruptcies, bank failures, corporate bankruptcies,
and a storm that could shake political power is coming.
Xi also said,
On the 100th anniversary of the army's founding, the initial intention was to capture Taiwan.
The problem lies with Russia. I once saw Putin as a hero, but his wars are too disastrous.
We still have to look at the process and outcomes of their wars
before deciding on our next military actions.
In a column by RFA on July 3rd, Chen Quide, Executive Chairman of the Princeton China
Initiative, along with independent scholar Zhang Diety, mentioned that this internal
speech has been circulated through various independent channels. While it cannot be
officially confirmed, it aligns closely with Xi's political activities and could be a far-reaching
prediction. Chen and Zhang concluded that this speech confirmed information that the US had
received. Admiral John Aquilino, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, stated in his
written testimony to Congress in March that the Chinese Communist Party's goal remains
to have the military ready to invade Taiwan by force by 2027. Additionally, Chen and Zhang
noted that, according to Xi, the CCP will face a major storm in the next three to five years.
If Xi intends to start a civil war, the first step would be
attacking local tyrants to divide the land and confiscating personal property through
police and tax actions. The second step would be using the military to suppress popular
uprisings. Finally, Chen and Zhang said that preventive measures would be taken when people
see through Xi's regime, and many self-protection and self-rescue plans will emerge among the
population. Wen Zhao, an independent media commentator, specifically discussed Xi Jinping's
internal speech on his program. He believes the two key points are launching a civil war
and implementing wartime measures. Wen Zhao noted that after each important CCP meeting,
an initial internal speech often sounds unbelievable but eventually proves unsurprising.
For instance, in 2013, there were rumors that Xi had said in an internal meeting at the National
Ideology and Propaganda Work Conference that the Internet will destroy the party and the country.
At the time, it seemed exaggerated. However, in September of that year, the two top CCP leaders
issued a so-called court explanation, stating that a post shared more than 500 times
constituted defamation and could result in imprisonment. Looking back, Wen Zhao suggests
that Xi's assertion about the Internet destroying the party and the country was not exaggerated.
He believes that based on past practices, as long as Xi's statement is widely circulated and quoted,
it can be considered a significant prophecy. Wen Zhao finds Xi's internal speech in Yan'an
horrifying. The civil war that was mentioned could be aimed at Xi's domestic opponents,
or Taiwan, as Xi views attacking Taiwan as a civil war. Wen Zhao also pointed out that while
some people think Xi's purging of the military has weakened the PLA's combat effectiveness,
it's worth noting that Joseph Stalin conducted a significant purge of the Red Army from 1936
to 1938, during which three out of five marshals were killed. It's interesting to consider that
World War II broke out in 1939. During his great purge of the military, Stalin was well aware that
a war with Germany was imminent. In 1939, shortly after the purge, Germany invaded Poland, and Stalin
did not hesitate to send troops to eastern Poland. Wen Zhao believes that Stalin knew the purge would
but did not waver. According to Wen Zhao, Xi's thinking might be similar to Stalin's.
So the outside world believes Xi has not given up on attacking Taiwan,
despite the ongoing severe military purge.