Recently, the RMB exchange rate for the US dollar fell to a new low of 7.3 yuan for 7 months, forcing the RMB to close to the US dollar.
A large amount of funds are also flowing into Hong Kong from China.
In addition, the Russian Central Bank forced exporters to sell RMB, causing the local market RMB to the RUB exchange rate to fall by 5%.
The RMB is experiencing depreciation pressure from multiple aspects.
On June 21, the RMB on the coast fell to 7.2923 yuan for the US dollar, a new low for 7 months.
Part of the reason is that the CCP Central Bank's fixed-term exchange rate is weak, causing the market to guess that the authorities may be preparing to allow RMB further depreciation.
As of this year, the RMB has fallen by more than 2% to the US dollar.
In addition, recently, foreign investment institutions have entered the Chinese mainland stock market, and the north-facing funds are also turning.
From the purchase of the previous few months, it has been sold.
In June, about 3.3 billion yuan, about 45.4 billion US dollars, flowed out of mainland China through Hougangtong.
As of this year, the funds flowing from mainland China to Hong Kong have reached 12.9 billion yuan, about 17.8 billion US dollars.
In April, the latest official data showed that Hong Kong's RMB deposit was 10.9 trillion yuan, about 1.5 billion US dollars.
As of January 2022, the increase in Hong Kong's RMB deposit reserves is believed to increase the depreciation pressure of the RMB.
At the same time, there is news that the Russian Central Bank forced exporters to sell RMB in order to stabilize the RUB exchange rate, causing the local market RMB to fall below the RUB exchange rate.
On June 19, the RMB fell by 5% to the RUB, not only the largest single-person fall in more than two years, but also the first time since May 2023 that the RMB fell by 1 yuan to the 11th RUB.
The next few trading days continued to shake.
The reason why the RMB fell to the RUB is that Moscow's top economist Professor Evgeny Kogan said that market participants are worried that the RMB will also encounter the same fate as the RUB, which is to sell the RMB in general.
According to the U.S. Institute of Strategic Studies, economist Li Hengqing said that the RMB fell by 5% to the RUB, not a shocking fall, because Russia and China are both foreign exchange-controlled countries.
And when Russia and China trade with India, they always think they are losing money, thinking that they have no right to bargain in oil, natural gas and other energy products.
Li Hengqing said that now Russia has a lot of RMB in its hands that cannot be digested, and China is tied together with Russia, and the risk of China's banks being kicked out of the SWIFT system is increasing.
In this concern, Russia forcibly threw out the RMB. I believe Russia can do it.
On the other hand, although the U.S. dollar is 1.9 times the official price of the RUB, the black market price has soared to 1.3 times, 1.4 times.
It is said on the Internet that if you exchange it for $50,000 in China, you can exchange it for 20 million RUB in the Russian black market.
Then take these RUB to China and exchange them for $250,000 according to the official foreign exchange price of the CCP, which can quickly earn huge profits.
For this, Li Hengqing said that such a huge profit gap has a great impact on the RMB exchange rate.
Small-scale, sneaky transactions are indeed possible, but there is no RUB market that can exchange a large amount for 1.4 times the exchange rate.
For example, how many billions, hundreds of billions, such a large amount can not be done at all.
