梁頌恆：危險！送外賣要「跟黨走」；深圳取款要預約 對香港有無影響？ #信燕訪談

Hello everyone, welcome to the live broadcast of the Sun Yat-sen Forum. I'm Gillian Zhang, Sun Yat-sen. Today's guest is a former member of the Hong Kong Legislative Council, Mr. Liang Song-heng. Hello, Mr. Liang. Hello, everyone. China's economy is in a bad state. Unemployment rate is very high. The people can only invest in foreign-bought military equipment. But business is not good. A lot of people are just playing hooky. The CCP's official request is even more outrageous. People who deliver take-out orders should follow the party. If a person who delivers take-out orders should follow the party, many netizens will say, isn't he following the road? Isn't it very dangerous to follow the party? This will arouse a lot of netizens' ridicule. It's true, it's very dangerous to follow the party. So, should foreign-bought soldiers follow the CCP to hell? Mr. Liang, what do you think? Actually, everyone can think from a more humorous perspective or a more realistic perspective. If you are a netizen living in China, and you are watching this program, you don't need to worry about anything. Because the police are here. Actually, they hope that foreign-bought soldiers can help them to do the surveillance. Right? Actually, the police are here. There are more than foreign-bought soldiers. They have all kinds of face-to-face cameras. They do all kinds of AI. Their computing power, chips, data centers, they are all doing these things. I don't think there are more than foreign-bought soldiers. But this kind of thinking behind the scenes has made some Chinese industries unable to survive. Chinese industries are losing their competitiveness in the world. Because it is not a market economy. A market economy is a market that decides whether to stay strong or to go bankrupt. It's like this. Those who know how to survive, there will be progress if there is competition, and there will be choices if there is competition. We, the people who study economics, always believe in the market. We don't believe that a person can be so good because the market is a collective intelligence. But this kind of thinking of the Chinese has made us unable to survive. As we said in the last episode, Ma Yun and Ma Fatung, if you do something big, you will be hit. If you do something big, you will be hit. In fact, if you are free, you can't do this or that business. You have to build a house like a farmer, and now you have to build an electric car. This kind of thinking is not doable. If your companies go public, you will not have a chance to compete with the world's top companies. You will always think, because you can't compete with them, the CCP's thinking is not to make them better competitors. It's not like that. They can say, I will start a price war. I will subsidize you. You sell your company to me, I will sell it to you for half of its price, and I will subsidize you for the other half. That's it. But now, the CCP and the Western countries have discovered that this is not right. Why can you sell your company to me for half the price? You are actually listed by the CCP. They have made a calculation, and they have subsidized you. So you sell it to me for half the price, which adds up to your tariffs. In the end, you have no competition. So, today's economic situation, the unemployment rate is very high, and the financial situation is, of course, a very complicated problem. In the previous episodes, we have analyzed it in different ways. The situation is actually so complicated that it can't be solved. It can't be solved today. But, overall, it is still the CCP's thinking. You can say it in the most traditional or most neutral way, it is the thinking of the planned economy. But, in fact, the CCP's inferiority complex is that everyone has to pay the bill. If you want to boost GDP, I will build a building. If you want to boost GDP, I will build an electric car. Then it will count as GDP. Once it is built, it will be GDP. Because of this inferiority complex, I have to follow the CCP. Because of this inferiority complex, but others are not. In foreign countries, the only thing we trust is the market. If the market tells us it is right, it is right. So, this is the difference. Today, the Chinese economy, whether you call it good or bad, I boldly predict that its economic decline should last for a long time. Recently, if you look at the national debt, etc., I am very afraid. I think this country has violated the government's so-called regulation of the economy for a lifetime. It has violated the government's I will talk about it later. Do you have anything to add about this issue? No. Everyone can laugh. It is funny to laugh. But, I think everyone needs to think about its thinking behind it. I think, this kind of ideology has determined that it is impossible for China to have a first-class company. It can only be Xia Bawei forever. Yes, that's right. Let's talk about the next question. Recently, the bank in Kowloon reported that a cook needs to pay $20,000 to go to the police station to issue a certificate. It is a very complicated certificate. It means that the cook can't get the money. Now, it is reported that banks in Shenzhen are also concerned about this issue. In Shenzhen, Hong Kong, which is a developed city, needs to pay $50,000 to go to the police station It is a very complicated certificate. It means that the cook can't get the money. In Shenzhen, Hong Kong, needs to pay $50,000 to go to the police station Let's take a look at this news. First of all, I have to remind everyone that this incident didn't happen on the first day. I think a few months ago, there was a video on RFA which said that there are banks in Shenzhen that can't get the money. You will see that when this happens, you will be aware of the liquidity of China. The liquidity of the entire economy is a problem. It must be like this. Why does this happen? If the liquidity is not enough, you can print some money. The money is printed by the CCP. If it is not enough, you can print more. Is it true? Is the RMB still written as China Bank? Yes, it is printed a lot. It is printed every day. Why do they face this problem? I hope everyone can talk about it in a more complicated way. Let's think about the situation Recently, some crazy things have happened. For example, China issued a 50-year national debt. It's crazy. 50 years later, will there still be China? If there is no China, no one will pay me back. If I issue a 50-year national debt, will you believe me? I may die after 50 years. I don't know if China can survive 5 years. 50 years? How is it possible? The strange thing is that it is not very high-level. It is only about 2.5% For your information, was 4.3% yesterday. It was 10 years. If you don't count the exchange rate, the U.S. dollar is going up and the U.S. dollar is going down. If you only look at the exchange rate, there is no competitiveness at all. The second most surprising thing is that the U.S. dollar is going up. The U.S. dollar is going up. There are only two explanations. If you believe the market, the U.S. national debt is 4% and the Chinese national debt is 2.5% Of course the U.S. national debt is going up. If you are in Hong Kong or other countries, you are in the U.K., you are in the U.S., how much interest do you have? The audience should know. I wrote this article recently. Why would I buy the Chinese national debt? Are you crazy? You should give me less interest. I don't know what to do if you don't pay me back. There are only two possibilities. First, the Communist Party points a gun at something, at the head of an organization. For example, the most money. What do you think of the most money? Bank, insurance. You have to pay me back. I don't have money to spend now. This is one possibility. This possibility can explain why banks are so active recently. Where does the money come from? They print it themselves. It comes from the stock exchange. Even if some banks can print it themselves, they need the country to print it. Not to mention the banks in Guilin. Could it be that some banks are already in the last wave of real estate debt crisis? Because they didn't go public, they don't need to pay you back. But they really don't have any money. If you give them more money, they might really run out of money. If they don't have money, what can they do? They have to go to the police station to get a certificate. Then they have to go to ABCDE to collect five stars before they can pay you back. They are trying to stall you from getting the money. Because they really don't have any money. They can't go public. This is one possibility. This is based on whether the liquidity or liquidity has reached a very serious level. This is one possibility. If we continue to focus on the national debt, the second possibility is because the money is in China. They can't sell the US national debt. You can't buy it in China. Even if you have it, they won't let you buy it. You have to go to the police station to get it. They don't have any investment that they think is better than the 2.5% return. It can be like this. This country is basically not finished yet. How can this happen? Let's assume that everyone has free will. At least everyone in China has free will. I will choose the highest return to invest. If there is an NVIDIA or an Apple in China, of course I will buy it. But they can't buy it now. The most important problem is that they don't know the truth. If they don't know that this country is already in danger, this national debt won't last for 5 years or 50 years. They can't see the situation They don't know anything. They are blind and can't hear. Maybe they will choose their own national debt. Our first assumption is that the CCP is pointing the gun at the bank. We can assume that the people don't know about this. If they know, there will be some problems. Of course, the CCP has a way to suppress them. They have guns and tanks. They like to kill their own people. Our second assumption is that they can choose. Let's assume that if Chinese people still have free will to choose investment products in China, the highest return they can get is 2.5%. This is very scary. If there is no investment in China, you think you can get 2.5% in a year. There is a risk that China will explode. I can't tell you. Don't underestimate The number of Chinese people is more than the number of Hongkongers. Hongkongers only do it once. There is no other way. In my memory, China is like an explosion, an underground bank, an online investment platform. You can't count you can find on Google. They have a lot of experience. But they still do it. Maybe they can't find where their money is. That's why they do it. Let's assume they have free will. When did we see this? It was the 90s in Japan. In the 90s, their economy exploded. They started to develop monetary policies. One of them is very famous. Until this year, it's called You Can't Control. It's to lower their national debt. Any country that wants to save the economy, starting from the Japanese era or the 200s, will use the liquidity of the market to invest money in the market to make the economy rich. China is funny. They are issuing national debt. They are taking money from the market. This kind of policy has overturned all the books I've read or all the policies I've seen. But now, there is a situation in China which is similar to Japan. No matter how low Japan's national debt rate was, it was down to 0.5% for a while. Japanese people continue to buy because they can't find other investment opportunities. Isn't it similar to the situation in China now? If you assume that Chinese people have the right to choose it's like Japan. If we compare the current economic situation with the Japanese economy in the 90s, Japan was basically lost until 2023. In 2023, they officially stopped the stock market or the companies. After about 13 years, Japan is an open economy. You can go abroad freely. You can borrow money to do other things. China is not like that. China is a closed economy. The RMB is not a free movement or a free flow. In this situation, you can imagine that it needs a longer period before it can recover. Because foreign investment is simple. In the past, if you can make money, you can go abroad. But everyone knows that it's risky to go abroad. They won't let you leave. Even your own rich people won't let you leave. Now, you can't even make money Why should I go abroad? This is a dead end. If you don't have money, you can't save the economy. But if you want to save the economy, you can't get foreign investment to help you. You don't know why the CCP has closed the market and left the liquidity. I don't know if the news we see is true. The liquidity of banks is very fragile. The first question you asked is whether Hong Kong is safe. I have said this many times in different programs. If you live in Hong Kong and have savings, Hong Kong has a bank guarantee. Every bank in Hong Kong is a qualified bank. Every account is worth HK$500,000. If you live in a bank with more than HK$500,000, you can split the money into 10 accounts. You may feel bad about it, but at least there is a guarantee. Don't be greedy about the high interest rate. You will be scared if the interest rate is higher. There is no such thing. The CCP is very tight-lipped so they will give you a higher interest rate. Especially during this period, the real estate crisis is still going on. Some banks and insurance companies may be in trouble. We don't know. You don't know if it is your business. If it is your business, it may explode. If China can't explode the problem, Hong Kong will be fine. Hong Kong won't give you a lot of money. They won't give you money. It will be a financial crisis. Financial crisis can be produced easily. This is my first confidence. So everyone should open more accounts. You can open C or H accounts. You can help people sell ads. But you have to minimize the risk of your assets and property. This is the first step when you have assets. Now the crisis is right in front of you. I don't know if it will explode. I don't have a crystal ball. But it may explode. Everyone should not be afraid of 10,000. Even if it is 1 in 10,000, you can buy insurance. You don't need money to open an account to protect your assets. Yes, that's right. Let's see if there is any supplement. Today, it is very rich. Remember to take your own precautions. Yes, that's right. If you can hold the money in your hands or open an account overseas, it may be safer. If you can't, it's like what Mr. Leung said. Yes. In the end, the Hong Kong government has issued bonds. They will help the Chinese government to issue bonds in Hong Kong. If your bank has RMB, the bonds you bought, don't issue them. Actually, you can open an account to buy US bonds. It's very easy. As I said, US bonds are 4A. They don't have 4A bonds. Do you think US bonds are safer or Chinese bonds? Think about it. So, do a little more research. Don't trust the bank manager to tell you. He may be right, but he may want to sell you something. So, on the Internet, there are a lot of different teaching methods. On my YouTube channel, I will make a video on how to buy US bonds in an independent securities bank and learn how to manage your own assets. Especially, you need to prevent risks. Especially when there is a storm, you need to prevent risks. Yes, because now Hong Kong's buildings have been destroyed. A lot of buildings are in danger. So, everyone needs to be careful. Especially, don't buy Chinese bonds. Yes. That's all for today. Thank you. Thank you, everyone. Thank you, Mr. Leung. See you next time. Bye-bye.