王軍濤評伊朗總統墜機亡如何影響世界局勢？

Hello, Chairman Wang Jingtao. Hello. Thank you for accepting our interview. Today, we are going to talk about a topic. On May 20, President Lai Ching-de said in a speech that the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are inseparable. China should recognize the fact that the Republic of China exists, respect the choice of the people of Taiwan, show sincerity, and dialogue and cooperation with the legitimate government of Taiwan under the principle of equal dignity. This includes tourism, academic students returning to Taiwan to study, and he emphasized that any political party should resist and defend its sovereignty. It should not sacrifice the sovereignty of the country for the sake of power. Let's talk about what he said in his speech. Compared to what Tsai Ing-wen said about the two sides, do you think that President Lai Ching-de is stronger than Tsai Ing-wen in this respect? Yes. President Lai Ching-de's speech should be said to be the strongest speech since Taiwan began to restore peace negotiations with the mainland. In this speech, he made it clear that the two-state theory of the mainland is Taiwan-only. We know that Taiwan and the mainland are actually two countries, but the reason why Taiwan cannot become a completely sovereign and independent country is that it lacks international recognition. The main international organization is the sovereign state. As a member of the international organization, it has not yet accepted Taiwan as a formal member state. We know that a sovereign state has several elements. Taiwan has all these elements, but it does not have an international recognition. But it doesn't matter. As an independent political entity, it has all the elements. The mainland does not deny this. If the mainland does not recognize this, it will not end the civil war. It also recognizes that Taiwan is now an independent entity, but it does not want to admit that it is a complete sovereign and independent country. The mainland has always said that the current cross-strait relationship is a temporary relationship. In the future, this relationship will end and move towards unification. At present, the mainland and the mainland are temporarily recognizing each other. This is the so-called nine-two consensus. The nine-two consensus is that the two political entities sign some substantive treaties as independent entities. The signing of the treaty itself, the signing of equality itself, recognizes that the other party's independence exists. But he said, don't mention politics. Is it a country? Or do they belong to each other? Or do they belong to each other but move towards unification in the future? Or what should a country be called? This is what the mainland insists on saying. Taiwan's Kuomintang accepts the nine-two consensus. But the nine-two consensus of the Kuomintang is actually different from the mainland version of China. The nine-two consensus of the Kuomintang does not say that it does not talk about politics. Instead, it should say that one China is equivalent to each country. In other words, the two sides are now talking about substantive treaties. It does not involve political statements. But the mainland can say that one China is the Republic of China. Taiwan's Republic of China can say that one China is the Republic of China. This is consistent with the current Constitution of the Republic of China. Because the Constitution of the Republic of China now does not think that the mainland should be outside of Taiwan. The Republic of China includes all the land and territories of the Republic of China. Now it also includes foreign republics. So the nine-two consensus of the Kuomintang version of Taiwan is actually a lot of people criticizing it. This nine-two consensus is actually very similar to the version of the People's Republic of China. The People's Republic of China thinks that those who advocate democratic movements in China and those who advocate democratic movements in China think that the Republic of China is a legitimate regime overthrown by the Communist Party. This regime should restore the democratization of China. It should restore the Republic of China. Especially now that the Republic of China, which has been fully democratized, is under the control of the mainland. In the end, it is the mainland. This is the Kuomintang's mainland. So this is what I want to say. But in the past, the incumbent president of Taiwan Mr. Chen Shui-bian and Ms. Tsai Ing-wen In fact, they all hope that Taiwan can be recognized internationally and can be a completely sovereign and independent country. But when they can't do that, they hope to be able to maintain the dignity of Taiwan and the qualifications of an independent sovereign country But there is a problem here. Taiwan's current security still needs to rely on the United States to bear such a responsibility. So except for the United States, if the mainland can use military means to solve the U.S.'s possible military crisis, the U.S. is now selling weapons to Taiwan and advanced weapons and equipment to ensure that Taiwan can prevent the mainland from violating Taiwan's main channels and tools. So if the U.S. still needs the United States to provide this help, then the U.S. policy towards Taiwan Of course, he doesn't want Taiwan to fall into the hands of the CCP. But on the other hand, he doesn't want a war in the Taiwan Strait. So the U.S. attitude towards Taiwan He doesn't think Taiwan is part of China. But he recognizes that China is one of the world's principles. There is only one China in the world. But does this China include Taiwan? He said that this problem should be solved by the people on both sides of the strait. Because in history, the U.S. has admitted that the Republic of China has also been established. It includes Taiwan and the mainland. Actually, it's one thing. But later, in fact, after the Communist Party of China established the Republic of China, the U.S. became the Republic of China again and stopped the relationship with the Republic of China. In a way, it means that he is more ambiguous in this attitude. But the principle of the U.S. is that although I don't want the Republic of China to invade Taiwan, at the same time, I don't want to cause a war because of Taiwan's independence. So he emphasized that the Taiwan Strait should maintain the status quo. What is this status quo? Everyone can have their own view. This status quo is the status quo of peace. So on this issue, Taiwan's former president of the Democratic People's Party and the three presidents know that if the mainland uses this as a reason to try to invade Taiwan and affect the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. may not be happy about this. And I think the U.S. may have doubts about the assistance of Taiwan. So in this case, they also avoid using some provocative words. This time, President Lai Qingde actually made it clear in his speech that the mainland of China is accused of being independent of Taiwan. There are two-state theories about Taiwan independence. There is a China-Taiwan theory. There is a Liangfu theory about a country. These are all clearly listed by the mainland as an independent statement of Taiwan. This time, President Lai Qingde concealed this statement. Of course, this is one of the most far-reaching in Taiwan's Democratic People's Party president's inauguration. And in this, the second thing you can see clearly is the phrase in the speech of President Lai Qingde. I just said that although the Democratic People's Party does not recognize the nine-way consensus, it mainly does not recognize that it is a Chinese statement in the future, but it does avoid political questions in business negotiations. President Lai Qingde's speech this time is that he is already negotiating future business, such as studying abroad, business interactions, Taiwan is an independent sovereign state. I don't know what the future relationship between the people of Taiwan and the future relationship between the people of Taiwan will have a practical impact. These practical effects mean that if you don't recognize this point, you attract Taiwan's dignity and sovereignty. Maybe it won't let you have this kind of relationship. We can see how to explain these words later. But in short, if you ask a question in this way, of course, there is also a political argument in Taiwan. The argument is that in general, Xuanzhi is about the one-way statement of the one-way statement of Xuanzhi, which means that it is the Republic of China or the Republic of China. But now, if it is in accordance with President Lai Qingde's proposal, in fact, these future relationships cannot sacrifice Taiwan's independence and sovereignty. Of course, if this statement is a little stronger, it means that you want to be with Taiwan and the Republic of China. This time, however, President Lai also made a relatively large concession. Because in Taiwan, there is an internal dispute about Taiwan's independence. One said that Taiwan's Republic of China should be with the Republic of China now. Of course, President Lai still adopted the statement of the Republic of China. This gives you a vague space. You can also say that as long as I insist that I go with the identity of the Republic of China, independence and sovereignty. But you can also say that you should not recognize this sacrifice. Because now the mainland, you know, it includes international flights, etc. It is necessary to label China and Taiwan, right? It is not allowed to use Taiwan as an independent entity. So in this respect, the mainland will be tighter and tighter. Of course, President Lai also raised this point in order to resist this point. But this will give the two sides a space for actual affairs to interact in the future. How big is this space now? We have to look further. The last point I want to say is that President Lai's firm attitude I think is to maintain the dignity of the people of Taiwan, and President Lai is an idealist. I have been an idealist for a long time. But on the other hand, the current situation in China is really complicated. At this time, Taiwan and the mainland will definitely have a lot of conflicts in the next four years and eight years. Will these conflicts cause changes in the international political situation? Will it cause internal changes in the world? And will it cause changes in the internal political situation These are all things we have to discuss. The last question is about the people of the mainland. People who claim to take a strong attitude against Taiwan now all say one thing. If you Xi Jinping can't unify Taiwan, especially unify Taiwan by force, then you don't deserve to continue to be re-elected. So they added a bargaining chip On the other hand, if Xi Jinping is really in power, he is now using Taiwan to engage in Taiwan independence as an excuse to start a war against Taiwan. If you want to solve the Taiwan problem in his way, then of course you will consolidate his rule. This is the situation in the mainland. But on the other hand, Xi Jinping in the future In the future, Xi Jinping will also say that if he starts a war against Taiwan, he will definitely fail. The failure is the end of his dictatorship or the end of his dictatorship. It is also the beginning of the collapse of the Communist regime. This is also a guess. So I think this Lai Qingde's speech is actually a new beginning of cross-strait relations in a certain way. There must be a new development direction and space. And this space and direction may drive the international situation to drive the situation in Taiwan and the situation in the mainland. In fact, he also mentioned that he hoped that China would stop civil and military actions against Taiwan. I don't think this is possible. I think President Lai is completely clear. He is against the mainland. We assume that President Lai's ideals are impossible to do so. He will not stop the civil and military actions against the mainland. I think this is just a sign of the mainland. We see that the U.S. War Research Institute and the U.S. Enterprise Research Institute recently issued a study report from coercion to surrender on Taiwan. This report warns that the Chinese Communist Party may be in Lai Ching-de's four-year tenure in the military, economic, information and cyber warfare areas of Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party may be in coercion to surrender. What do you think of this report? Of course, this is impossible. I think the Chinese Communist Party will use all kinds of means but these means will only arouse Taiwan's young people's resentment and will make Taiwan go further in the direction of Taiwan independence. The Chinese Communist Party has tried this in the past. For example, in the 1990s, after President Lee Teng-hui visited the United States, the Chinese Communist Party conducted military exercises for him, and Zhu Rongji warned Taiwan and warned the United States. However, this move did draw Taiwan's political bottom line in a way, including the United States, hoping that Taiwan would not further incite the mainland to take military risks in the Taiwan Strait. On the other hand, it did worsen Taiwan's feelings. Later, in the internal historical election in Taiwan, as long as the CCP speaks, the CCP's favorite or the CCP's weaker political party's election will be changed. The CCP's threat has become a poison in the ticket box, so the CCP has a dilemma. If it is not tough, then the green camp will go further in the direction If it is tough, the resentment of the people on the island will lead to the blue camp. The number of votes will be reduced, so it is now what I think is that if the mainland adopts such a way, it is not necessary to attack but to use various kinds of harassment, etc. The reason is that in November last year, before Xi Jinping visited the United States, we found that the mainland's tone has changed a lot. In the past, the mainland was talking about the United States, Taiwan, etc. . But now he found that a small number of politicians a small number of politicians tied the interests of the local people to their political bargaining cards. In this way, his explanation is that later we know that Xi Jinping's speech is to separate the people from the rulers, that is, to do more work and then let the people get up and resist. At that time, during the visit to the United States, he said that the foundation is in the people, and then he said that hope is in the future, in the youth, and then the motivation is in the place. So he invited Newson to visit Beijing. Later, he gave 50,000 American youth to visit China to support their visit to China. Then there is Wall Street, and these big technologies and economic evils hope they come to trouble in the United States in fact, Taiwan is also like this he can not help but start a warm card for Taiwan and said that the two sides are now engaged in a family of two, etc. In fact, I just want to continue to cultivate some emotions among the people, and then give it to Taiwan, because a democratic constitutional state is politically diverse, everyone has the freedom to express their views, and let these people come to Taiwan to do their work. You see, this is the same with Douyin. In the discussion of Douyin, the United States launched the young people of the United States to lobby their parliamentarians. So I guess if the mainland really wants to leave Taiwan, if it wants to cultivate the emotions of the people of Taiwan to the mainland, it has to work for the other side and will not take to harass their normal life, Can you talk about the recent fighting in the Taiwan Legislative Yuan? Many Western media are reporting that the Reuters describes Taiwan as a noisy democratic country. Mainland media are also saying that the Taiwan democracy system is very chaotic. What do you think of this incident? In fact, many democratic countries have had this situation since the 1990s. At that time, the 1990s was very powerful. In fact, in the early years, Japan was also a member of the parliament to fight. This is also very powerful. This fight itself, but in the early years of the election, the fight was to win votes. In the past, Taiwan adopted an election system where one election could elect several representatives. Often, when some people want to be elected, they will go to the side. Although there are not many voters, they can get a few votes and be elected. However, after the reform of the Taiwan election system, only one vote was elected at this time. Generally speaking, one voter will be elected at this time. This is the election law. In the future, this situation will be relatively rare in Taiwan. But this time it came out again. In fact, it is also a reflection of President Lai Ching-de's future four years and eight years. It may be full of conflicts and intense political conflicts within Taiwan. This will also give the CCP a chance to win. Although President Lai Ching-de was elected president, his legislature is now led by the Kuomintang Blue Battalion. The chairman is a tough and strong person. So President Lai Ching-de will have to face them in the future. In addition, the reform of the Legislative Council this time is to require the president to be able to accept the consultation of the members. After all, democracy is still relatively young. If you consult in the United States, it will be very sharp, but it is still polite. There is usually no personal insult and humiliation. However, in Taiwan, democracy is still relatively early. This also shows that democracy should not be noisy. It should be called a democracy that is full of vitality and is moving towards regularity. Next, let's talk about Putin. Putin recently visited China and met with Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping also embraced Putin and spoke to him privately. Of course, the media did not report what he said. What do you think he will say to Putin? How will Russia-China relations develop in the future? Now we can see very clearly that the world situation is a new cold war. On the one hand, China and Russia are warming up. On the other hand, the Western democratic camp is warming up. How do you think this meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping will affect the situation I think these two people are doing a PR show. In fact, Putin and Xi Jinping can't go together. This is because Xi Jinping has a Chinese dream. He wants to turn China into a historical pride. Do you know the word China? In English, it can be translated as China. But Chinese ancient scholars say that China is a central kingdom. So look at the world as its center, it is in the middle, it is the central kingdom. Xi Jinping's world, the typical Chinese revival of China will become a central kingdom. The world is on the economy, like the Belt and Road Initiative, the People's Republic of China is all around it. Putin has a dream of reviving Russia. In fact, his early years of reviving Russia, the democratic leader of the people's Republic of China said that the revival of Russia must solve China. So these two political strong people's dreams about their own country are very sincere. They believe that their dreams must be conflicted, that is, the two countries cannot have a common long-term cooperation basis under the And we want these two people to have a strong personality. These two people like to play this kind of conspiracy, this kind of face-to-face, you can laugh behind your back. So why are they walking together now? It is clearly the pressure of the United States. In fact, I also talked about China and Russia in a show last year. But in fact, in the middle of the normal international economy, Russia and Europe are much more China and the United States are much more than China. China needs advanced technology, markets, and funds. Only the United States can provide other things. On the other hand, if Russia's energy is not because of the Western blockade of the United States, if it sells to China at its original price, it has no interest in China. China will buy oil from the Middle East and other places. Russia's economy, you can see before the sanctions, for example, it was cooperating with Germany and France. It didn't sell its energy to China, but because of the war in Ukraine, after the war in Ukraine, China is now patting Xi Jinping, hoping that Xi Jinping can support him to fight this war to the end, hoping that China will end this war in a favorable way. He now knows that the two purposes of his initial launch of the war are not able to reach his two purposes. One is to make a pro-Russian regime in Ukraine, and the second is to fly Ukraine. He can't do this. How can he end this war China needs help on this point, but for the sake of China's help and for him to continue the war, he actually threw China and many other places into the UK. He was originally fighting Ukraine so that Ukraine could not leave his range. As a result, he made many places in China strong. He is very unhappy now, and in the heart of Russia, he has always been the West. He is in favor of the West. He has been studying the West since the beginning of the Great Patriotic War. And later Putin felt humiliated because he wanted to join the Western club. He felt humiliated, but he looked down on China. For example, Russia has two major developments. One is in the imperialist era. It has no development in the west because there are East Slavs, South Slavs and Western Borders in the west. The main development is from Siberia to the east. This is mainly because China was competing with the Qing Empire at that time. Other small kingdoms or tribes could not stop him. It was mainly the Qing Empire, so he took a big advantage. Later in the Communist Revolutionary Period, although the Communist Revolutionary Period was not a global occupation, China and Russia were both in the Communist Revolutionary Period. He is the boss. China is not a little brother, so he actually looks down on China in his heart. His dream of reviving Russia is also that China cannot be independent. So now the United States and the Western world are under pressure in Ukraine to make him leave China. He can't live, so he has to show some sorrow to China. But once the war stops, he won't. And China also understands why he doesn't openly support Russia in the war, and he doesn't want to offend the United States. Although the United States is now suppressed in all respects, there is still room for some aspects, especially as long as the United States does not have comprehensive sanctions and sanctions, it can pass through Southeast Asia, through Mexico, through those aspects, it can bypass the direct blockade of the United States against the United States to seek the development and his main technology market, etc. So the current alliance between China and Russia is temporary so China has a saying called Russia and China have a superior that part of this statement I think that below here is that at the time of the CCP who said that we have a bottom line this bottom line, including not against the third country, not engage in military alliance, etc. And because of this bottom line is actually drawn out again, they will not form a real evil alliance but is it possible if it really is Taiwan war that is possible, if not this situation, they still have to take advantage of each other. China takes advantage of Russia. One takes advantage of the war. I'll give you some money. So buy the oil at a cheaper price. The second is to use it as a bargaining chip to bargain with the West to bargain with the United States. So don't push me too hard. Otherwise, I'm going to ally with Russia. Because the United States now talks a lot with the West, and they are more worried. So now Russia is also like this in Ukraine, it needs to get out of the way and needs China's help. This is the use of two countries. So I think they are all mutual performances for the international community. So what does Putin say about this performance? I think Xi Jinping knows he will be seen by the world when he embraces Putin. In fact, the two of them can talk enough during the secret talks, right? Why do you have to come out and hug? What did he say when he hugged? I guess what he said was to let the whole world guess that he just wanted to achieve an effect to do a bargaining chip I don't think China and Russia are allied. Because there are two reasons. The first reason is the dream of China and the dream of Russia. These two dreams are the two dreams of fire and water. It's just that they haven't met in the process. In the end, these two dreams must be realized. It must be a win-win situation. The second reason is that these two leaders are all stubborn leaders. They are all unbelievable leaders. Okay, let's talk about a sudden incident. President Xi Jinping died on May 19. After this incident, Xi Jinping went to Iran to give a speech on behalf of the Chinese government, the Chinese people, to President Xi Jinping and the Iranian government. At the same time, Putin also wrote a paragraph calling Xi Jinping a real friend of Russia. The EU also responded. At the same time, we also see Hamas, which is defined as a terrorist organization, Lebanon's pro-democracy party and Yemen's pro-Saudi army sent a message to Iran. These organizations and institutions form the so-called resistance center of Israel. Do you think that after President Xi Jinping's death, it will have any effect on the overall situation such as the relationship between the United States and Israel? At present, there will be no direct impact. Yesterday, I was driving and I was listening to C-SPAN and NPR. I don't think there will be any impact President Xi Jinping is a tough guy. In Iran, diplomats and leaders are the top leaders. He is a Muslim religious leader. In fact, whether the president dies or not is up to him. But the president will not have much impact because as long as the religious leader does not die, he will not change his mind. But the president is just like the religious leader. He is a tough guy. In this case, will his death have any effect on the extremist camp? In fact, many people are talking today that if he died, there would be no change around the presidential election. As long as the Muslim Supreme Leader is still in the hands of that person, then the president will not change even if he is replaced . If this is the case, people think that the president can take over as the Supreme Leader. In this case, the tough Muslim conservative will have a link. If the president is alive and the Supreme Leader is in office, you can see that Iran's policy will not change much in the future. But if this person dies, who will inherit him? If the Supreme Leader dies, who will inherit him? Now there is such a big variable. So people are talking about how this will change in the future. Of course, some people say that now the voice is relatively high. This is the child of the current religious leader. He may inherit. But once he inherits, it will immediately lead to a battle. Who killed the president of Iran? Because he is an airplane pilot. It used to be a pilot. Now it's reported that it's a plane crash. If the plane crashed, was it a fight? This gives a lot of room for conspiracy theory. Conspiracy theory may not be true, but if you believe it, it will affect modern politics. This person is more influential than he is alive. So this is what everyone cares about. Of course, everyone cares. No one expects that there will be changes in the future. But now Iran is also very difficult. One is the sanctions in the United States. Iran's economy is now very fragile. There may be a big crisis at any time. There is another one. Young people in Iran are increasingly opposed to extreme religious practices. For example, in the first two years, there have been street protests around the mask killing incident. In the end, the president also suppressed these movements. But regardless of the people, in the recent election, the voting rate is very low. Generally, the West thinks that the Muslim world's voting rate is low, which means that the legitimacy of the regime is low. People do not recognize this regime because the election itself is not true. In this case, this regime will have a crisis in the future. There is another one. Iran is now at the crossroads of foreign affairs. For example, Saudi Arabia. If he wants to get the sale, the old king of Saudi Arabia seems to be in danger now. So if the heads of the two Muslim camps are all in trouble, then this Middle East thing can be seen. It's a good point. So this is a problem that everyone is concerned about. So for the time being, Iran's situation will not change. But the next step is to surround the Supreme Leader. If the religious leader is not there, the successor may be in danger. If the successor is replaced, if the successor is replaced, at this time, Iran's political situation has a real room for change. Otherwise, the president is a religious leader. If he is a tough conservative, then he will not change. Thank you very much, Chairman Wang. Thank you. Goodbye.