Why Everybody's WRONG About Erling Haaland

Hello everybody, Adam Cleary from 442 here and today I'd like to talk to you about donuts. In the aftermath of Manchester City vs Arsenal, it was suggested by Roy Keane and then copied, repeated, echoed, syndicated and expanded upon by every single person with a radio, phone and show and a YouTube channel, that Erling Haaland has the general play of a League 2 player. An outstanding finisher, no question, but he's only scoring so many goals because he plays in a Manchester City side designed to feed him and his ability to actually get involved with the rest of the game is that of a player nowhere near the level he's currently playing at. And I mean, it's certainly an interesting premise, but is that true? Well, if you just come here really quickly, just a little bit closer, come on, scooch in, scooch in, come on. No. Alright, so just for one second, putting aside that the majority of these opinions have come from bad faith actors trying to generate page views, webpage impressions or advertiser revenue, is Erling Haaland a bad player? Now, you may think we don't need to talk about his finishing here because that's the one thing everybody does agree on. He's an amazing goal scorer, but actually, no, we do. Because nobody was talking about Erling Haaland's general play last season. Like, every single time I watched him, he scored like, top of my head, 80 goals or something. He was breaking a record every single week. It's only now that the goals are proving harder to come by that people feel the need to have this conversation. Like, well, what else is he contributing? And it is actually a fair point because this stat shocked me when I looked it up, right? Since the start of December, which I don't even remember the start of December, that's how long ago it was, Haaland has scored four goals in the league for Man City. Like, yes, he was out for a little while with injury, but there are loads of fixtures in that run where he doesn't get a goal. And just for context, in that same period last season, he got 12 or 13 goals despite there being a literal six-week break for the World Cup. So something's clearly going wrong then. Like, Man City are doing absolutely fine, they're still challenging for the league, they're still in Europe, but Haaland, their main goal thing is not working the way he was last year. And if we compare his shooting stats from last season to this season, you can see that that is still the model of one of the best strikers in the world, but there is quite a big drop-off between what he was doing then and what he's doing now. Like, it's largely just little things, like his shot and target percentage has dropped ever so slightly. He takes fractionally more chances to get a goal now than he was, but the really staggering bit in this, and apologies for this, is how he's performing versus his xG. And I always apologise for using this stat because I know a lot of people really do not care about xG, but clearly there is something wrong with Haaland, and if you look at the data, this is the bit that jumps out. But last season he was over-performing the quality of chances he gets. Like, based on all the models they've got about the quality of chances, if you buy into any of that stuff, he was doing fractionally better than he was supposed to be doing. So he was over-scoring based on the chances he was getting. And whether you're into it or not, that does tend to be the mark of a very good finisher. Someone who is doing slightly better than you would expect the normal player to do in these situations, and it does tend to be borne out on the eye test. Like, think in your head who the most ruthless striker is. They will almost certainly have a similar stat. And also, please put in the comments, by the way, who your brain went to when I said think of a ruthless striker, because mine went to Les Ferdinand for some reason. Anyway, sorry, back on target. You compare that to this season's numbers, and he is now under-performing that same stat. Again, not by a whole lot, but even that little drop-off puts him in, like, the bottom 15% for finishing in the league. Still scoring loads of goals, of course, because he is a really good finisher, and he does get loads of chances in this team. But based on the quality that's being made for him, he's not quite doing as well as he was last year. So what does that actually tell us, though? Well, first off, that he's human, and he's capable of having a good season and a less than good season. But also, if he's currently under-performing what we expect of him, and we know he's capable of over-performing what we expect of him, that should balance out over time. Like, he should get back to the average, and when he does, he'll be scoring more goals, and questions like this simply won't be getting asked. But to discuss the actual question that's in question, is his overall play that of someone way below this level? So just to go back to that Arsenal game where this all started, this is every single successful pass Erling Haaland made in that game. It's certainly not a lot, and what there is certainly isn't good. None of this, either directly or indirectly, led to a chance being created, either for him or a teammate. It was probably his most anonymous big-game performance he's had for Man City. Thing is, while it was a bad performance, it certainly wasn't an unusual performance. Erling Haaland was not getting involved in Man City's build-up play, he was not dropping away from the defenders to receive the ball, he was not trying to bring other people into play, because he does not do that in this team. And I've seen some people asking, well, why the hell not? Like, clearly that would have really helped Man City in their build-up, it would have helped them make more chances. Why was he not dropping away from the centre-backs, finding some space, getting on the ball, and helping to make things happen? And the answer, really simply, is that Manchester City do not want him to do that. They are such a disciplined side, they so rigidly stick to whatever the plan is, and if you watch that game back, that is clearly not the plan. This is just one example, but I could honestly show you like a million of these from this game, right? City get the ball, they are trying to play through Arsenal, Erling Haaland is an option two feet, and they choose not to use him. And it's a small gap, I'll certainly grant you, but Kovacic is the kind of player who can play it. Haaland is available here to receive this pass, but he doesn't want to do that, he goes sideways. Just a couple of seconds later, Rodri gets on the ball, and he could fire this in to Haaland's feet and really panic Gabriel and Saliba, but he chooses not to do that. Here's another one, Nathan Ake, he's looking left, he's looking right, he sees Haaland's here, there is a gap to play that through, doesn't want to do it, goes sideways. In fact, he goes to Diaz, who also has a great angle to fire this ball into Erling Haaland's feet, but doesn't want to do it. He instead gives it to Rodri, and would you believe it, another perfect opportunity to play this ball into Haaland's feet, but that is not how Man City want to use him. And it's not that they haven't got faith in his ability to do that, like the goalkeeper goes long into him at one point in that first half, because he can't find a nice short pass, and Haaland does really well against both defenders. And thusly, if we look at Haaland's passing stats this season, they're largely the same as they were last season, he's probably the least effective forward in the Premier League for getting involved in the play. And look at all those little red bars, that is ass. That's the kind of numbers I would be posting. In fact, do you know what, I'll go so far as to say it, those are the kind of numbers a League 2 striker would be posting in the Premier League. But oh wait, what's this suddenly materialising on screen? It's another graph. And wow, okay, now we're talking, right? Those numbers are much better, aren't they? I mean, they're clearly still coming from a centre forward who's an out-and-out goalscorer, but I mean, just look at the difference in this stuff. Look at how many passes into the penalty area they're doing. They must be really good at dropping off the centre backs, finding the space and playing a teammate in. Oh, but wait a Who is this perfect, beautiful angel of a centre forward whom Haaland should be taking several leafs off the pages out of the book of? Who is it? It's just Erling Haaland, mate. It's still Haaland. It's Haaland when he was at Dortmund, when he was playing in a system that required, you know, more general play, more link-up, more sort of involvement and all that stuff. It's literally him. Because you see, when Haaland was at Dortmund, he wasn't in a team that had 70% or 80% possession every single game. There was transitions and counter-attacks and far more opportunity and necessity for him to pull away from the defenders to create pockets of space, players bursting beyond him into the space that never exists in Manchester City games. And as a result, that's the kind of centre forward he was. He still scored all the exact same I'm Erling Haaland goals that he gets at Manchester City, but also he was doing things like this. He was dropping off the centre backs. He was receiving the ball to feet. He was bringing others into play. He was getting assists like this one, which you would just never, ever, ever see him get in Man City. Now I can already hear the comments. Yes, Das Bundesliga is of lower quality than the Premier League. So numbers always look slightly better when you're playing in that division, but it's the style of play. If you watch him in both of these teams, he is completely different. At Manchester City, Pep Guardiola wants him to stay as central and as fixed as possible because that is how he creates space for his teammates. Not by finding pockets himself or dropping off into them, by tying up two centre backs who never want to leave him on his own. And you did see this in the Arsenal game. All of Manchester City's best moments and good work came down the flanks because Arsenal were defending so narrow because of Haaland. Man City never want to give Haaland the ball in this central area because he's being doubled up on by two central defenders, but that is not a problem. That's literally the plan. They want that to happen because the space it invites, if you can stretch them with the wide players, leaves all the room for these two to then get into dangerous places. And then most importantly, when they are able to create a chance, it almost guarantees that Haaland is always in the right place to take it. He's never dropped out to the flanks or gone into the midfield to create space. He's always in the position of maximum opportunity for when the chance comes. So his passing stats are absolutely dreadful because he's specifically told don't worry about any of that. And his goal scoring stats are incredible because that's his job. It just drives me absolutely mad. Just to watch Erling Haaland and say that he's actually really rubbish at this specific thing he's being told not to do and is doing a good job at not doing. It's so transparently disingenuous. It's soundbiting, it sounds good and it's why it'll get you on the panel next week, but there's no substance to it whatsoever. It's not a take you could honestly have from watching football. And I've already said what the real problem is. It's not that anybody actually thinks that surely, it's just that it creates debate and discussion and I'm playing a part in that as much as anybody I understand. But honestly, the point I want to leave you with is if you think Erling Haaland is in any way a League 2 player, no disrespect to then you my friend are a donut. Right, that's the best callback gag I've ever done on this channel. So please do leave us a comment below with your opinion of Erling Haaland because this is just mine. Everyone else has allowed one as well. I do enjoy reading them. Also, please subscribe to us here on 442. The Euros are coming, we've got so many fun videos planned and subscribing really does massively help us grow the channel. We've had some great numbers for that the last couple of months. So if you joined us on this for that, then thank you so much. If you haven't, please consider doing so. We do honestly try and make what I think is some of the best football content on YouTube. New issue of the Mag, I think this is like the last day it's on sale. Interviews very nice, plus loads of other fun stuff. But the new issue's out later in the week as well. So we will be showing that off as and when I get a copy. But yeah, I'm going to make another copy because I'm having a donut. So why wouldn't you? Sorry if you hate the sound of chewing. That's very rude of me. Yeah, I'm an Adam Cleary. Socials are just Adam Cleary. They've never changed. I'll see you soon. Bye.