Ukraine strikes targets over 1200 kilometers into Russian territory | DW News

Russian officials say 13 people have been wounded in Ukrainian drone strikes in the Tatarstan region. Video verified by the Reuters news agency shows a drone hitting a target and exploding. Russia says the site is a student dormitory. Ukraine claims it targeted a drone production plant and an oil refinery. This appears to be Ukraine's deepest drone attack into Russian territory. The sites in the cities of Yelabuga and Nizhkamansk are about 1,200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Sam Bandet is an advisor with the Russia Studies Program at CNA. He's also with the Center for a New American Security. I asked him if he believed this strike had been launched from inside Ukraine. It is entirely possible that it was indeed launched from inside Ukraine. The Ukrainian military has multiple types of long-range kamikaze drones that can fly for many hundreds of kilometers. Last year, one such drone actually struck deep inside Moscow into the Kremlin. So it is possible that this particular drone could have flown from eastern Ukraine well into Yelabuga. OK. So, Ukraine says, said recently that it had produced a drone capable of flying more than 1,000 kilometers. How rapidly is Kyiv's drone capability growing? It is growing really rapidly. And the capacity to develop such UAVs is actually aided by the need to develop and manufacture as many UAVs as possible by the Ukrainian military. The research and development cycle is really in a matter of months. Ukraine, of course, has a lot of industrial legacy left over from the former Soviet Union with the production of different types of aircraft. And so it is this technological legacy that is aiding its ability to manufacture long-range kamikaze drones, along with some of the new technologies which are seen on this battlefield for the first time. So talk to us about Russia's ability to defend itself against drone strikes of this sort. Russia does have extensive air defenses, it does have electronic warfare defenses, it has radio-electronic intelligence, it has radars. But this defense is not absolute, and there are certainly gaps that exist in the Russian defense. And Ukraine has become very successful and very adept at exploiting these gaps. And so it can fly around these air defense pockets, and apparently well deep inside Russian territory. Ukraine can map out these flights along major routes, away from large cities, along forests, and rural areas where its aircraft would be least visible. Talk to us about the choice of targets, Ukraine's choice of targets, and those things that it chooses not to target. Because 1,200 kilometers puts Moscow well within Ukraine's range, yet Kiev has stayed its hand against the Russian capital, except for that token attack on the Kremlin, where they just broke a few windows, and Ukraine hasn't actually admitted to carrying that out. So why not attack Moscow properly, if I can put it that way? Well, actually, Ukraine did strike Moscow multiple times. It attacked Moscow City, which is a brand new commercial facility built in Moscow over the past several decades. It launched several other attacks, some of which were and were not successful. But the impact of such attacks is rather limited. It doesn't really impact society's attitudes towards the war. It doesn't really impact how society feels about this conflict and this combat. And so strikes against Moscow are rather limited. At the same time, attacking Russian energy infrastructure, industrial infrastructure, possible locations and sites where long-range drones are assembled against Ukraine. These targets are rather successful and have a very significant impact on the Russian economy and possibly on its ability to wage the war. OK. But let me be blunt about this. If Ukraine can destroy an oil refinery or thinks it has the capability to destroy an oil refinery, why not blow up the Kremlin? Well, again, I'm not a Ukrainian decision maker. I'm not in the military, so I'm not going to speak on behalf of Ukraine. But destroying the Kremlin or even attacking the Russian government locations, again, is not going to be as impactful as going after Russia's ability to generate revenue for this war, including oil refineries, defense infrastructure, railroad infrastructure, warehousing, military production facilities, military factories. Attack on the Kremlin may be rather symbolic because after last year's strike, there are a lot of defenses arrayed against, excuse me, around Moscow and certainly around Kremlin. So such attack may not even succeed. But the attack today demonstrated that most of Russia's European territory, that is west of the Ural Mountains, is actually within the Ukrainian reach, and that is where the bulk of the population, the bulk of the industry are located, and that's where the bulk of the economic activity is located as well. And now all of that is within reach of Ukrainian kamikaze drones. Russia, excuse me, Ukraine said that the target of this attack was a factory producing the Iranian-designed Shahed drones. Is Kyiv going to be able to dent Russian drone production capacity? Well, the attack on Yelavaga was a rather high-value target. That factory is said to manufacture thousands of long-range Shahed drones, which Russia flies under its name of Grine. Grine drones have been rather devastating against Ukraine recently. So any ability to dent that production, to limit that production, excuse me, to impact the production of these drones is going to be rather significant. And of course, Yelavaga is not the only drone manufacturing plant in the western territory of Russia. There are many other enterprises, and now all of them are potentially in the crosshairs as well. Another target was a Russian oil refinery, and this reportedly was despite the US asking Kyiv to desist from these sorts of attacks. Do you think we are likely to see more of the same? It is entirely possible, as long as Russia maintains pressure on Ukraine by launching missiles and Grine drones against Ukrainian civilitary and economic targets, Ukraine now has demonstrated the capacity to do the same against Russia, and it is going to exercise that capacity as long as the war continues. Thank you for joining us and talking us through that, Ossam Bendet from the Center for a New American Security. Thank you.