許成鋼：中國股市最大弊病/何為“軟預算約束”/中國通縮對世界經濟會造成衝擊嗎？

There is no protection from the CCP and the CCP has no protection from the CCP. Under these conditions, the stock market is actually a place that cannot be operated. That is to say, the development of the stock market in China In fact, from the very beginning, the people who really understood the stock market and understood the law There was originally a dispute about whether or not the stock market should be promoted at the beginning. At the time of this dispute, the reason for opposition is what I just said. So the reason for approval is for all the people who understand the law It is a good intention to promote the reform of China, not just for money. It is a good intention to promote the reform of China. He said, can we build the stock market first? Then we use this mechanism because the stock market cannot be separated from the legal system. So because the stock market brings benefits to China Because of this benefit, can we force us to improve our legal system? Force to establish the legal system in China This is the so-called piracy mechanism. So this is the truth proposed by the good people in the past. But now after 20 or 30 years We have seen very clearly that the so-called piracy mechanism does not work. But when there is no legal system When the party controls all the legal systems When the party can use all kinds of ways to seize private property So it actually turned the stock market into a tool Because it ignores the laws So in this context, the benefits of the stock market are much better than the benefits. Then there is another layer If we look at it from the perspective of the Communist Party's rule Assuming that for the sake of the Communist Party's rule Should there be a good stock market or not? In fact, even from the perspective of the Communist Party's rule This stock market also brings more difficulties to the Communist Party Bring a better stock market Why do you say that? What benefits can the Communist Party get from the stock market? This is a saying that today's shareholders often use It is said that he can get a lot of money by using the method of picking vegetables. But it brings great difficulties to the Communist Party What difficulties? Because when there is no stock market A lot of information does not need to be disclosed A lot of information cannot become a secret But in the stock market, you have to disclose some information anyway. So when you have some information to disclose It really brings him a lot of difficulties from the perspective of the Communist Party. And he thinks he can pick leeks In fact, when the current information has been known by the people In the case of quite a lot So as long as the Communist Party wants to manipulate the stock market in a human way Manipulate it a little higher People want to leave as soon as possible The power of manipulation cannot be blocked When can you really block the power of manipulation? Either you catch all the people Otherwise, people have no money in their hands Only these two things Those who have not been caught Those who still have money in their hands As long as he doesn't think he will be caught He will run away when he gets the chance So the stock market has lost its leeks The function of catching leeks is lost more and more quickly There is no longer the function of catching leeks Then it is difficult to manipulate So under all these conditions From the perspective of the Communist Party's own rule In fact, closing the stock market is better for him Whether he will close it is another matter We can't predict But from the perspective of his rule Closing is good for him The fourth question This question is related to soft budget constraints You just talked about this soft budget constraint You used to say that it is a common disease in all Communist countries It is a cancer So can you think so? The CCP is not only solving the economic aspect And on the issue of the party The CCP uses a similar kind of thinking For example, he is guilty of all kinds of mistakes in history He doesn't apologize to the people He thinks that once he admits his mistakes, he will threaten his rule Then these problems will not disappear It will gradually accumulate Eventually one day Will become a mountain that the Communist Party cannot climb In the end, this crisis will explode Then the Communist Party's regime It may also collapse at any time So in terms of economy The soft budget constraint is his cancer So in politics Do you think there is a similar problem? This cancer is also spreading This is actually not one problem It's two problems Because the soft budget constraint is an economic phenomenon It is an economic phenomenon brought by the system But the other thing you said It's not the soft budget constraint itself So separate it So we have to discuss this soft budget constraint problem separately This is a very important basic problem This many, many people Even in the field of economics and finance Many people don't know this concept Even some young professors don't know this concept The reason is because When this concept is proposed Is specifically aimed at the Communist Party of China Is specifically aimed at the reform of the Communist Party of China So the problem he discussed Is in the case of reform Is in the case of a market economy The behavior of state-owned enterprises So in the case of a market economy People used to have a naive idea The naive idea is that The state-owned economy is not doing well in the plan The reason is because the plan can't There is no way to make a good plan So as long as you let this state-owned enterprise operate in the market Compete with each other in the market Then this state-owned enterprise can be the same as a private enterprise This can be effective And because it is a state-owned enterprise It can also implement government policies at the same time To achieve a lot of goals that the market can't achieve So this is a naive idea But in fact, because it is a state-owned enterprise Therefore, when it competes in the market When it is self-reliant The government will help it The government will make it not bankrupt So because it is not bankrupt So-called non-bankruptcy This is the soft balance Because it is not bankrupt So it leads to all state-owned enterprises Managers, government officials Not worried that it will go bankrupt Then this becomes a problem In this market economy In the market economy As long as it can operate seriously Market economy that can operate Every enterprise must face a hard situation In other words, when this enterprise is self-reliant It must be So this thing is deterministic It determines that in the market economy Self-reliant enterprises have normal incentive mechanisms It can have a normal elimination mechanism When this soft balance is restricted It loses the normal incentive mechanism Also lost the normal elimination mechanism It has no normal incentive No normal elimination So this leads to In this market economy State-owned enterprises will be very bold Keep borrowing money So this is what we see today These problems in the Chinese economy So when we discuss When the soft balance is restricted A lot of people who don't understand this concept Misunderstand that this is an outdated concept Misunderstand that this is an old concept In fact, this is a very real misunderstanding Why is this a very real misunderstanding? Because economic science as science There is no such thing as Old things will be outdated There is no such thing as Old things have nothing to do with new restrictions For example, the most basic principle of economic decoupling Is that the money in the market Is determined by the supply and demand Then this question People know this principle for more than 200 years Not because it is an old principle Today this is an invalid principle So the theory of soft balance It was proposed in the 1980s So it is directly aimed at China, the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, Central Europe All the reforms of the Communist Party The problem of economic decoupling So the reason why it is cancer So the reason is here Because it is directly The product of this system Then this problem It will break your economy So under this system This problem can't be solved What system is this system? This system is that the Communist Party must have its state-owned enterprises Then the Communist Party must Its governance is based on state-owned enterprises And state-owned enterprises Not much soft balance So this problem Countless facts Also tell us This thing is not a simple theory This theory just helps us understand this fact Countless facts include what? Including the Soviet Union, including Eastern Europe, Central Europe All these countries Also includes China itself So China itself actually In 1998 Has appeared Very, very serious In 1998 In fact, it was due to the soft balance The consequences of the decoupling problem Has been extremely serious But how did China solve it that time? The solution Rely on the actual Large-scale liberalization It just didn't use the name of liberalization Then rely on Large-scale, actual liberalization The name is not called this name That one China's economic rapid development And including this A few years later, China joined the WTO So there are two Two major engines To help China's economic rapid development One is the private economy The other is the international trade These two engines together Drag China out Drag China out of this In the process To the rapid development That is, rapid development Can cancel The bad debts you brought And even Get rid of a lot of bad debts Now China Re-entering The problem of 1998 But can it be resolved now? Then we see Both engines are turned off One engine Was large-scale liberalization at that time The other engine at that time Was a large-scale international trade Now in terms of international trade Due to The relationship with all the developed Market economy Then this engine Put out more than half of the fire Then this China's current problem is not a problem of privatization But a serious blow The confidence of the entire private sector Hit all The basic confidence of entrepreneurs Make the entire Private sector Investment is a large-scale decline Now China's investment mainly depends on State-owned enterprises And state-owned enterprises are just The result of the weak budget So this is now China's The biggest difficulty faced by the economy Is the reason The problem of our weak budget And Re-entering Large-scale Causing problems to the whole society That's because It was mentioned a long time ago This is called Catch big and let small This big has to be strong and big It finally made it strong and big Finally turned it into This is the most important thing in society Once it becomes strong and big Then it brings The weak budget Has become strong and big Then I would like to emphasize here The specific symptoms of the weak budget What are the specific symptoms Now seen in China One is Just mentioned when talking about the stock market Is in the stock market All state-owned enterprises They are not bankrupt So this makes China's stock market Is a fake stock market with a weak budget Then another one Far larger In fact, it is China's real estate And China's local finance Why China's local finance Will become so serious Why China's local finance Owe so much money The reason is because All local governments Have built countless financing platforms What are these financing platforms These are state-owned enterprises Then rely on these state-owned enterprises State-owned enterprises Named financing platforms The money borrowed from them This is the most typical weak budget Why do they dare to borrow money Why do they dare to borrow so much money Why does the bank dare to lend So much money to them All state-owned banks Because all financing platforms are state-owned enterprises So state-owned banks lend to state-owned enterprises Everyone is not afraid of bankruptcy To make China Now It drags China's economy Into this It is a weak budget Drag China into this Then we call it cancer This is the truth We saw the latest news The Chinese Ministry of Justice Recently held a meeting To say that The Civil Economy Promotion Act Has started The legislation will be accelerated But Many people are Not confident Do you think The Beijing authorities Can they restore Confidence in the civil economy This should be As long as you look at The reaction of entrepreneurs Is very clear Entrepreneurs are all Very scared Then they are very scared They are afraid They dare not invest This truth is very simple Because their basic rights Can't be protected As long as their basic rights Can't be protected All policies are useless This is the opposite of this matter In fact, in China This In the 80s and 90s At that time In fact, China The basic rights of entrepreneurs Did not get protection At that time, there was no protection Why are they There are quite a few people who are confident Dare to do it So this truth At that time This China Inside the Communist Party His governance At that time Is based on economic development As his main goal So when he uses economic development As his main goal Then the region and the region Formed a competitive relationship So these Communist Party cadres In order to be promoted He has to work very hard to develop the local economy He has to work very hard to Protect his own Domestic private enterprises That's why those private enterprises Without formal legal protection Because the party and the constitution at the time Do not protect private property Do not recognize private property Why can private enterprises develop Because of local This party In fact, they are secretly protected Then the reason for his protection Is to promote themselves The reason for protection is for the local Private enterprise development will promote Local economic growth Local economic growth will Have a close relationship with their promotion Have a close relationship So in this context Although the formal law is not protected So it makes entrepreneurs Dare to fight But now Various attacks on entrepreneurs There are many In this very common situation So these entrepreneurs Already Very Afraid Then you are in this background Plus Once upon a time Between local governments This competition Economic growth This thing is gone There is no such place So in this context No one To protect Private property Then this Private economy There is no way to invest So this is It's no use Just ask a question China's largest car manufacturer Biyade What is the situation China's largest car manufacturer Biyade Just announced The price of this electric car in Germany Will drop by 5% 8.15% German Benz Has issued a warning Its profits have been affected The price of this electric car British Financial Times Recently also issued an article China's production capacity is over It is exporting to the world We think China's shrinking Will cause such an impact on the world's economy Then face this China's shrinking The United States and the EU are facing Difficult choices Either it will reduce the dependence on Chinese products Or become a push China's supply of cheap commodities Then you think the United States and Europe What choice should be made Because of this RMB in international finance The effect is very small I don't think The shrinking itself In international finance Will cause a great impact The reason is very simple Because the RMB In international finance The effect is small But in the background of serious overproduction Domestic demand Very people Then these companies In order to be able to sell Then it will Will not hesitate to lower prices It will be at a very low price So this From the perspective of a developed country He will think This is a demand Indeed, when China When faced with a shrinking When the domestic demand In the background of serious insufficiency When its production capacity When it is seriously overpriced Then it is indeed a demand So Actually All developed countries Will face this problem In fact, it is not a breakthrough But a demand Then Facing the demand Whether it is the EU Or the United States In fact, they all have The whole set The law of facing the demand So My estimation When it faces Large-scale demand They will start Their opposition to the demand The whole set The legal means There is also China's Electric cars, solar panels And batteries Facing this Very low Sales to Europe The EU has already started The whole set These investigations And audits Prevent it from European industrial Impact In addition to The impact on the industry of developed countries This developed country In fact, the current international trade Another very serious problem Is the issue of geopolitics And the issue of geopolitics At the beginning of the 21st century More than 20 years ago This Did not exist at the time People did not realize There is such a geopolitics So at the time, China joined the WTO The United States helped First, the United States Provided China with the best national treatment And then promoted And promoted Welcome China to the WTO This makes China China got This huge international trade opportunity Got a huge opportunity Into Globalization But now Geopolitics has decided Whether it's North America Whether it's a country Or Europe Or Japan Even South Korea Have all been from geopolitics Have a very high point So when China In this cheap way When entering their market on a large scale He removed what I just said This industry issue This anti-policy issue Anti-monopoly, etc. In addition to these Often a bigger factor In fact, it has become a geopolitics This is why Earlier discussions The WTO The so-called WTO In fact, it is not an economic issue Not discussing the economy The so-called WTO is geopolitics So later The United States no longer uses the word WTO And called WTO risk But actually His risk What does his risk say The biggest factor of his risk It's not an economic issue, it's not an enterprise, it's not a market He said it was geopolitics He said he was worried He was worried The Chinese Communist Party Take some products Some of this The key links on the industrial chain Take it as a weapon To this To rectify some countries So he is from From a national security point of view From a geopolitical point of view He wants to avoid the industrial chain Controlled by China So this makes China's foreign trade Faced with a very, very This is with When China joined the WTO It's completely different Then let's talk about this white list This real estate financing white list Now this China's Ministry of Housing and Industry This white list has been sent to commercial banks More than 3,000 projects Then this Reuters Said this again This professional The top projects on the white list Mainly those state-owned enterprises Development projects These projects are considered Is a safer choice What do you think of this financing China still has 20 million sets Unfinished pre-sale building How many will be completed What do you think This is actually Just a very specific example This is what I said earlier This is a very specific example When I talk about soft budget constraints This is a more abstract concept How do you realize it when you realize it? Of course he is From specific state-owned enterprises Specific state-owned enterprises Business project This is how it is realized I would like to explain a little more here This soft budget constraint The problem is not limited to state-owned enterprises The soft budget constraint The problem is not limited to the Communist Party The economy of the state The soft budget constraint In fact, it is a common problem The soft budget constraint So for example Even when the United States is in this financial crisis U.S. government Will also take actions Rescue individual private enterprises Because American enterprises are basically not state-owned American government and saved private enterprises. It's not that we don't save them. So the problem here is that if we use cancer as a metaphor, it's like saying that cancer can be found in all kinds of people. However, cancer is found in healthy people. Healthy people have immune systems. The immune system of healthy people can't protect the cancer cells directly, but it can protect the cancer cells. Why is it that some people have cancer and it's easy to recover, but some people find it difficult to recover? It's because you have this immune system. With a little help, you can recover with your immune system. But if you don't have this immune system in your body, even if you use various treatments, your cancer won't recover. So, this kind of immune system, although it exists in Western countries, it also occurs in private enterprises, but it's a separate phenomenon. In other words, as a whole economic system, as a whole system, as a way of operation, it's a hard immune system. When you run an enterprise, you can't expect that you don't have to be afraid of bankruptcy. You are a private enterprise in the market. You can't expect that you will be saved in the future. So you have to find a way to avoid bankruptcy. But in a communist country, you are a state-owned enterprise. You are quite confident that you won't go bankrupt. As a local government, you are quite confident that your local government won't go bankrupt. As a state-owned bank, you are quite confident that your bank won't go bankrupt. As a state-owned real estate company, you are also confident that your company won't go bankrupt in the future. Now, indeed, all real estate companies in China are facing huge pressure because they can't sell at all. Because the market is frozen now. In this frozen market, no one will be willing to pay to buy such an expensive real estate. In this background, what kind of enterprises can survive? It all depends on salvation. Who can be saved? Of course, it is a state-owned enterprise. Or a private enterprise with a very special and close relationship with the government. Stick to universal values and promote traditional culture. Watch China guard the future of Taiwan with you.