Why Man City may not win the Premier League

Okay, let's get into this one, my penultimate athletic football podcast of this week. We have the athletics data expert Tom Harris, Manchester United writer Karl Anka, and representing Tottenham with a little white flag, we've got Charlie Eccleshare as well. Gents, welcome to the pod. I don't know if it was me, but Phil Foden screwing a hat trick away at Brentford and Manchester City yet again galloping forward at a pivotal time felt a bit like Groundhog Day. So this podcast really is about breaking it down to see if there are actually any flaws to Manchester City striding on to win their fourth Premier League in a row. Historic as well, let's not forget. Right, Tom, let's crunch the numbers. City potentially have a bit of a quirk in their defence. Yeah, this is a really weird one and I'm actually coming at this from a Man City fan perspective. So just to get that out there from the start of the episode. But yeah, it's quite a frustrating thing that City seem to concede from their first shot on target in most games that they play. So it's happened 12 times this season already. Happened at Brentford on Monday when Neil Mopé raced away, by which point City had already had six shots on goal. And it's also happened three times this season where they've conceded their first two shots on goals in a game. So away at Newcastle, they were 2-1 down, the first two shots that Newcastle took ended up in the back of the net. Also 2-2 with Crystal Palace, that was a particularly frustrating one. Also happened against Leipzig in the Champions League. And to be honest, I do think that they've got away with quite a few of these games and made them a bit harder than they should have been. So yeah, I think that Newcastle game is a great example. There was Wolves away where they managed to lose 2-1 despite only conceding one shot on target. The other one was an own goal. The Spurs game as well, Charlie, you remember that was three shots on target conceded out of four. So it's a bit of a weird Achilles heel, but it does keep happening. And you know, if they get off on the wrong foot in one of these big games of the season, which is left, you know, they've still got to go to Anfield, Tottenham, Brighton, you know, they could potentially find themselves in trouble. Yeah. Karl, is it surprising to you that at this point in the season that both Arsenal and Liverpool are the ones that share the spoils in terms of the best defensive records? Not really. So the concerning thing about City, if you are not a Manchester City fan, is you always have at the back of the mind, they're going to go on a run. Liverpool fans have described this, Arsenal fans experienced this last season, is that you can be doing really well playing some of the best football in your life. But you know, at some point in time, City are just going to win 10 games in a row. And you just thought, oh, bloody hell, this is, this is annoying. I remember Sadio Mane explaining how he felt it easier being ahead of City than chasing City, because City are just so unrelenting in what they do. You don't really want them to be second on a match day. But the good news, if you're not a City fan, or if you would like City to not get four in a row, is that this Arsenal team are very, very good. I think they've gone from being knockout specialists to submission artists this season. This Liverpool team, dominant in both penalty areas, which is really important, while they still sort of figure out this Liverpool 2.0 in central midfield. So those two teams are always going to do well. I think the concern, worry, annoyance is that in a season where everyone knew City were going to spend some time away, like the Club World Cup, Liverpool and Arsenal couldn't get a huge lead. Now City, they've won the game in hand over Brentford, and it's beginning to feel ominous. Not inevitable, but ominous. Well, Charlie, I mean, let's flip it again. Key player, City, Roderick, and we've seen them struggle this season without that key component in their midfield. Yeah, I mean, he, what is it, four games he's missed and they've lost them all? I mean, he is phenomenal. It's been a year since he lost a game. I mean, the interesting thing with the defensive numbers is that Liverpool give up a lot more chances. They've got 28 expected goals against, City have 21.8, Arsenal 17.8. I mean, Arsenal's expected goals against is incredible, really. They've actually had a bit of what Tom was describing as well with the first shot on target going in habit, including against Liverpool. They didn't even have a shot on target before they equalised, obviously, again, that being an own goal. There must be something in that, that for these teams that give up very few chances, those that they do give up do seem to be quite good opportunities. If you can find a way behind, like Brentford did against City. It is hard to go against them. I always compare City to Novak Djokovic in tennis. There's an inevitability to them that, in the same way Carl said there, you can have a lead against them, but you know they're going to come back. If you see Djokovic has gone two sets down in a Grand Slam, you'd still make him the favourite pretty much every time, even though, in theory, he's got a big deficit. And I was interested to see Haaland saying that, outside of football, Novak Djokovic is one of his sporting idols. I thought, game recognising game, that sort of inevitability aspect. Yeah, I think that is maybe what's a bit troubling for those who want to make this into a closed title race. It is this sense that... City remind me so much of Ferguson's United as well, that the best teams would... he always said, you know, as long as we're sort of in amongst it, come the turn of the year, we'll probably be fine. And I have that feeling now with City, that I don't feel like they've been at their best this season. And they had that game where they lost to Villa and barely had a shot. And it was like, well, maybe this is going to be the year. And they've won the next nine games, whatever it is. And here we are. So yeah, but there are those chinks. And it's not... of course, it's not done. But I mean, we're in early February. But I do think the fact that now, if they win their game in hand against Everton on Saturday, because they play first, and they had two games in hand going into this week. If they win that, their first even games, that does feel like quite a change in the momentum. Whereas, you know, it was only a week ago, Liverpool had a bit of a lead and they look like maybe the team to beat. Manchester City at Anfield isn't a good draw for Manchester City at all. And also Arsenal, if you think about it, still have to play them again. Yes, it's at the Etihad, but Arsenal have got one over on them this season as well. Was it 12 consecutive defeats? Something like that in the league? I mean, unbelievable. Like no team... City, who beat everyone, they don't beat the team that regularly. It was just the worst matchup. Broadly, because Arsenal weren't good enough to kind of out football City, but they'd always try, which was City just like, yes, please keep trying that. Obviously, at the Emirates, they... what was a very boring game, I think, for the neutrals, but it was an incredibly mature performance from Arsenal in which they restricted City to next to nothing as they did against Liverpool, which is, you know, a really good sign for them. So it means they don't go into that game. You know, I think last season when Arsenal had a lead over City, even Arsenal fans were kind of doing the maths of, OK, well, City will get six points against us when we play them. So we need to have a kind of eight point lead or something like that. And obviously, so it proved. And, you know, with it being a five point gap last season, if Arsenal had won one of those games, they would have won the title. I know, obviously, we don't know then what would have happened, etc. But those games were clearly key in the title race, whereas now I think you'd still make City the favourites that the Etihad, but a bit of that fear factor must have gone for Arsenal knowing that they can beat this team. It all feels a bit like an exhaust pipe on the Death Star, doesn't it? If you get everything absolutely right and get it just there, you can fire a shot there and thereabouts. We know this Manchester City team, with this defensive high line and Rodri as well, are slightly, asterix, asterix, asterix, vulnerable to direct attacks, vulnerable to that direct counter attack, which is why Brentford, you know, have been able to do the double against them last season, which is why, you know, a goalkeeper got an assist for Mo Pai's goal. If you can, to borrow some lines from John Barnes, if you can get round the back, you've got a shot. But to do that, you've got to get past one, Rodri, who, in my mind, is the best defensive midfielder in the world. And if you do get past him, he'll fire you anyway, so. Yeah, yeah. And two, three, four, is this back three, back four, that contains Kyle Walker, who's absolutely rapid and fantastic on 1v1 counter-attack and defence. And this sounds so simple. This Manchester City side is huge. And they are, to think, you know, watching perhaps Barcelona from 2009, that eventually the Manchester City team will just contain so many six-foot players who are this technically capable and just able to boss you at some of the most rugged stuff, makes it so difficult. Arsenal's adventures at the Etihad have been particularly interesting. One thing I thought was really curious last season was how Arteta used the FA Cup game. He basically used it as a scouting mission, you know, played Sambit Lekonga in central midfield and sort of gave him a run to see how he'd react. And then more or less thought this person isn't going to be having the future at Arsenal that some might think, and he might be able to move on online. So you're hoping, you know, Decon Rice and this new Rice-Giorginio pivot would be better at the Etihad. But it says a lot that, you know, we're talking about all these games in the future, you know, potential title deciders at the Etihad. No one's mentioned the Manchester derby, which hurts me just a little bit. Just tells you how less potent that is in the world of football. Sorry, Karl. Other teams do exist as well. But Tom, Karl's kind of talked about previous Pep Guardiola teams. And actually, let's talk about this current iteration of Manchester City compared to previous Manchester City teams that he's managed and coached. I mean, everyone thinks of the 100-point season for sure. What's the main difference? Yeah, I mean, we have been talking a lot about the defensive numbers, but you do have to mention it because, you know, they're conceding over a goal again this season, which they haven't really done in the last seven, eight years. They're already approaching actually the 25 goals they conceded in the 98-point season when they won a league in 18-19. So, yeah, a bit more defensively porous, but also, obviously, we spoke about it at the start of the season as well. I think there's a bit of a mini transition in terms of play style. Had a few kind of players as in, you know, Doku and Nunes, who's not played as often as I think we were expecting, but that kind of ability to dribble through kind of a man-to-man marking system, which a lot more teams are trying against Pep Guardiola City now, starting with Arsenal in that FA Cup game you just mentioned, Karl. So, there are a few different challenges for Guardiola that he's had to overcome this season. And I think as well, I mean, that Brentford game was also a really good example of just the sheer number of different patterns you now see in a Pep Guardiola team. You didn't, obviously, he's a very intricate manager when it comes to planning games tactically, but there were so many different shapes with Guardiola was kind of touchline hugging at one point, then he was charging into the box the next, Walker was holding the whiff, and then all the players were kind of swapping around. It was really, really fluid in a way that we've not really seen too much under Guardiola. So, I think he's relishing the challenge, to be honest. I think he liked it when, you know, he's got a bit of competition. And yeah, so a bit more experimental perhaps, but yeah, that kind of defensive frailty is probably a result of having to change things around ever so slightly, as A, players are injured, and B, the Premier League changes around him. I think the frustrating thing, if you're not City, is, again, sounds simple, just how good Pep Guardiola is at adapting things. In lockdown seasons, City seemed potentially vulnerable, and then it got to January, and Guardiola simply figured out how to adjust the lockdown, you know, football behind closed doors quicker than everyone else. Just relax the press a little bit, understanding that there's a decrease in training time, so less structured shapes, and just slower pace, go for it. And then they sort of just ran away with the league that season. And this is what you've seen. At the start of this season, there was conversation about whether Manchester City met Miss Gundogan, miss his ability to seamlessly switch from being a sort of auxiliary number six to being a boxer box midfielder, to potentially being a number 10. And he sorted it now, through some form of jiggery-pokery. Phil Foden, there's a fantastic piece on the FA right now on how Phil Foden's going to be essential to how City break down low blocks. So, it's not just that they've got an obscene amount of wealth. It's not just that they've got Kevin De Bruyne, who's arguably the best player in the Premier League for the last 5-10 years. It's not just that they've got a T1000 in Erling Haaland, who scored 52 goals last season, and now he's back to fit of fitness. It's not just that they've got, arguably, the smartest manager in the Premier League, if not one of the smartest managers of all time. But you put it all together into this intoxicating mix, and yeah, I can imagine it can be quite distressing to be someone else, thinking, oh, we've won our early kick-off, and you switch on your phone at 3pm, and oh, they're a goal up in 35 seconds. Brilliant. If you were sort of clutching at straws, one thing you might say, I do remember this at the time, after they lost that game to Villa, it was a thing that then in the subsequent three months, they were going to play one team in the top half. And depending on whether Chelsea are in or out of the top half, they're currently out. So there was always the sense that, okay, those are, and look, no easy game in the Premier League, etc, etc. One of City's great skills is being able to put away teams generally they should be, as Carl says, often pretty early in games. But so, you know, you could say, well, you know, let's not get too terrified. They're beating teams we'd expect to beat. They are going to have a harder run of games. And yeah, the Manchester derby kicks things off on the 3rd of March. Then they go to Liverpool, then they go to Brighton, then they host Arsenal, then Aston Villa. That's a tough run of five. There is an international break in between, and there'll be Champions League games. I mean, City are so good at navigating a busy schedule. There may well be an FA Cup quarter in there as well. But I think that those five games is going to be really key. If they come through that with a, you know, still, if they have a decent lead, then that could break the back of the competition. Yeah, Tom, you know, this game at Anfield, going to Liverpool, and it's been a bit of a thorn in the side of Manchester City for years. Do you know why? Do you have a sense? Why is it just as simple as mental mind games? Is it as simple as, you know, obviously, if you think about the Salah, Firmino, Mane years, there was a potent striking force there. But do you think, in Karl's words, Klopp has cast a juju over Pep Guardiola? Yeah, I mean, the only time City have beaten Liverpool was at Anfield in the Pep Guardiola era, it was behind closed doors, when the fans weren't there. And then before that, you have to go back to, I think, 2003, was it? Sean Goeter, I think, scored the winner. So a long, long time. Yeah, I mean, I was actually in the away end when we lost 4-3 and Salah scored from a halfway line. And that kind of typified those games where City have the control. And then they seem to just give up these chances, which on any other day wouldn't go in. But Ederson's 30 yards out of his box, Mane kind of scored one where he's falling over a little bit right into the top corner. But yeah, this is going to be a massive one, because Liverpool are going to be probably right on their tails. And it's going to be, obviously, an emotional day with Jurgen Klopp. His last, one of his last big games at the club, I think it's going to be in a particularly big atmosphere. Most teams struggle at Anfield. It's not like a kind of bogey ground where we're saying, why does City keep losing to Burnley? You know, Liverpool haven't won at Anfield in the league since 2012. United, without wanting to go into too much detail, have had some pretty sticky visits to Anfield in recent years. But you know, but of course, it's kind of like, it does feel at times like the final frontier for Pep, beating Liverpool at Anfield with a full crowd. I mean, they love it, don't they? They love that rivalry, the Liverpool fans. And that, yeah, that game does look so key. I mean, Liverpool getting the draw earlier in the season was massive as well. You know, which maybe, it was weird because at that time, we weren't yet sure really where Liverpool were exactly, whether that, because last season was such a weird one for them, you know, didn't even get top four. But they have kicked on well since that game as well and looked like, you know, proper title challenges. City, like they used to be, like we got so used to it being those two teams. And then it's obviously Arsenal who just trying to hold on to their role from last season as being City's biggest challengers. Yeah. Karl, I just, I want to move on to squad depth in just a second, but just back to that question on, you know, trying to get one over at Anfield. And I guess this is probably the most annoying thing as football fans is that you feel like Pep Guardiola has these objectives. He had a really bad record away at Tottenham and look what he did there. Got it. You can just see he's completed that boss. This is one boss in Jurgen Klopp's final season. You can see Pep Guardiola plotting to do at Anfield. Of course, absolutely. And it's, they've been some thrilling games between these two teams. I think not just that Anfield, but also the idea. And you think Anfield with it's certain special, something, I think Mikko Arteta said when he was an Arsenal player, you know, Anfield was the one where he'd entered the field and his legs felt heavier all of a sudden. So I know Tom's a man of numbers. I'm a man of numbers as well. I know my XG, but at a certain point when you're looking at the numbers, you just have to admit there's a bit where, where magic is real. And Anfield has something in there that can sap the strength of everyone. You do think for that game, Liverpool will need to be at full fitness. We're still monitoring the fitness of Mahmoud Salah. We still need to figure out Trent Alexander-Arnold's adjustment. I think between one thing that stood forward for me from Arsenal's victory over Liverpool was Pernate's adjustment from playing next to Bradley to going to Trent, just it tweaked it a little bit. That right-hand side was Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ryan Gravenberg and Cody Gakpo. The balance was just a little bit off. They need more left footers in that team. And I think Klopp will make changes, but Pep will make changes too. I think one thing I found really interesting after the first Manchester derby victory was Pep was talking about why he lost against Arsenal. He said against Arsenal, he got his predictions wrong as to where the spaces would be on the field, which I thought was a really interesting thing for a manager to say, and that Pep, there's always going to be space, but Pep got it wrong against Arsenal and that's why they lost. Slash, asterisks, Roger wasn't there. So we know very often where the spaces are going to be against Liverpool, which is to the right-hand side of Gnate because Trent is moving elsewhere. How does Jurgen Klopp remedy that? And that's going to be a big question. Yeah, I guess something would be incredibly important to whoever walks away. It's hard to say walk away with such. Yeah, actually, maybe walk away is not the word. Whoever wins the league would be squad depth fundamentally. And, you know, historically, people talk about City having a great, fair bit of squad depth, but look, Arsenal now have Timba coming back, Tom Iasi coming back, Leandro Trossada, they can take off the bench, Emile Smith-Rowe to a certain degree and Jorginho as we saw in the Liverpool game was quite vital to that match. Liverpool, again, a lot of young bloods coming through as well. They're able to cope under pressure. Charlie, who do you think has the greatest squad depth out of, if we say this is a three-horse race, Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool? I think City, really interesting what they've done regards squad depth in the last few years of having a smaller squad, but one of about 16, 17, but all of those players are so good that you don't sort of lose a huge amount and rotate them. And that's kind of what Arsenal tried to do this summer with their signings. And obviously they then lost Partey and Timba for basically the whole season. And I do think that's made a big difference for them because it's meant they haven't been able to rotate in quite the same way. And that may cost them later on in the season. I think it's tricky because I think if those players, I mean, I think with Timba, we should kind of see anything this season as a bonus given he's coming back from ACL and Partey is just such a hard one because he keeps having these setbacks and he is so important for them. I think because he's out, he's been out all season. It's kind of, you kind of forget about players are out all season, but he's massive. If he comes back, that makes such a difference to what they can do depth wise, because especially now they've got Jorginho sort of as, as such a trusted option, I think he's been so much better than a lot of people were expecting. Um, and I, and I think it does really shift things for Arsenal depth wise. If, if Partey is there, then maybe they can view Havertz as more of a forward because they can play Partey as the six, Rice as the left eight. Then all of a sudden you've got Havertz and Trossard as rotational options with Sacca, Martinelli and Jesus. That sounds really good to me. Whereas currently just having Trossard as a rotational option feels like they're really light because in their ideal team Havertz is, uh, is dropping back. So I do think that would change things a lot for them. I still think City do have that greater depth. I mean, I looked at their, you know, their bench the other day and, you know, Stones, Akanji, Rico Lewis, Kovacic, Grealish, Dooku, Nunes, Oscar Bob, that is a stacked bench. Um, whereas, you know, the day before, uh, Arsenal certainly had academy kids who've never played for the first time on their bench against Liverpool, uh, and Liverpool, obviously they were missing players as well, but I didn't think they, you know, they didn't have that same depth or anything like it. I mean, they had some academy kids on there as well and two goalkeepers. City all of a sudden as well are getting all their players back. Um, and that again often happens for them towards the end of the season and that can't be coincidental. So I would give City the edge in that way. Liverpool in an attacking sense do have great depth, but then really so does City when you're not stuck, when you've got Dooku and Grealish to send on. I mean, that's a bit ridiculous. It's the greed they talk about in the Bible. Liverpool fans often said one of the annoying things about being in a tight race with City is it, when it comes to towards the end of the season, a player emerges that you've forgotten about for so long. Oh yeah, I forgot they've had that guy on the bench for ages. You know, sometimes that player is Bernardo Silva. Sometimes that player is Phil Foden and you just listing City's bench there, Oscar Bob could, could be the one. I know. I forgot Kovacic has gone to Manchester City and he's so good at press resistance dribbling in essential areas. Nunes has barely played. He could be that guy. He hasn't played again, yet again. There's always, there's always a hidden player. Yeah, that's a really good point. Get you in between the ribs. But I'd also say Liverpool now have this depth in that there is going to be a good Cody Gakpo game between now and the end of the season. I think Ryan Gravenber, his defensive contributions can be a bit lacking for Premier League speed, but he is, in my opinion, what he can offer in the final. So it can be very, very, very good. So those are two players that can offer a lot. I'm, I think Connor Bradley's fantastic and what he can offer at right back is good. I do want to push back on what you said about Arsenal and the squad depth there, because I, what I saw in that Liverpool game, I think Jorginho left, Declan Wright's right is fantastic. One of my favourite Arsenal writers is a gentleman who doesn't write for the Athletic called Billy Carpenter. And he did a fantastic thing on how Declan Wright receives the ball and says, well, he's fantastic receiving the ball and being precious. And when he receives on his right foot, he's perhaps not as good when receiving on his left. Then you put Jorginho on the left hand side, we know how good he can be. I think that those two in a pivot is wonderful balance. And if Tattaglia continues with that between now and the end of the season, they've got a real stew going. Yeah. Just thinking, Tom, from a City perspective, you're looking at that bench thinking, wow, this could be interesting. Oscar Bob, we've already seen what he can do in front of goal, composed. They've unearthed another one. Yeah. I mean, I think the key distinction with City is the academy, to be honest, because this project under, you know, in the Guardiola era is now so established that any player who really is deemed good enough to get anywhere near the first team from the academy is practically a ready-made Guardiola player already, because that's how they're brought up. That's how they play through the youth teams. You know, if you look at last season, for example, Rico Lewis just came in quite a demanding part of the season and kind of played a hybrid fullback central midfield role and looked absolutely comfortable with that. Oscar Bob as well, as we mentioned, I mean, even Micah Hamilton played in the Champions League against Red Star Belgrade and looked absolutely brilliant. So yeah, I think sometimes City squad can look weak on paper because there aren't big names in every position, because as Charlie said, Guardiola likes to slim the squad down a little bit. Sometimes there are players who, you know, we don't really recognise, but yeah, in attacking areas, they're so well stocked. Defensively, we've got more centre backs than we know what to do with, to be honest, and two of those in Guardiola can play fullback. It's only really Rodri who is, you know, just because he's so ludicrously better than anyone else in that specific position. I think he's the big one where if he's not in the team, that's where there are problems. And yeah, in that regard, I kind of think City have the best depth, but they also have the biggest weakness. It's a curious one because this has been a hold over again since Guardiola has been, you know, these Barcelona teams tend to have a kind of small squad supplemented by academy players. I think this is outside looking in. I get the sense that he does this because he wants to have most contact. He wants to have the most contact time with his players on training. So if you have 25 plus players, you're not being able to give that one-to-one assistance as he might do with this slightly limited squad. And also when you do have those academy players that have been educated in everything he wants for the past five, six years, you don't need the fifth choice centre back because you've got someone that knows everything One thing that stands out with Oscar Bob is he's just got a fantastic croqueta. The way he just knocks the ball between his heels and carries it. I'm like, yeah, I can tell you've had Guardiola coaches with you for years because Iniesta loved doing a croqueta, Xabi Hernandez loved doing a croqueta, Messi used it all the time. It's annoying how good they are. You know, I know the title of this podcast is going to be, is there, you know, name the reasons why City aren't going to win four in a row. And there's two reasons we have is one, no one's done it before really. So we're going to say it's not happening until it happens. And two, because loads of people don't want it to. And sometimes the football gods answer that prayer. Often they don't, unfortunately. I mean, I was just going to jump in and say, no, they don't, they don't care. And just with, I do think with the squad thing, yeah, not having a deputy for Rodri is maybe an issue, but I think even looking at the starting teams or starting in a bit beyond, Liverpool have a more clear weakness and I don't think their midfield is that great. And certainly not at the level that it's been at before. You know, I looked at their midfield, I know they had injuries, but you looked at their midfield at the Emirates on Sunday and you thought back to that Fabinho, Wijnaldum, Henderson trio that was just so good and so strong and, you know, for them to have kind of muddled along without a really good six this season has been amazing. And Arsenal have had this issue with creating chances from open play and what have you. And, you know, this kind of talk about whether they need a number nine or not. I don't see that in City in the same way. I don't see what, what's their weakness as such. I don't feel like they really have one or certainly not an obvious one. Yeah, let's move on to Arsenal really. I guess I wouldn't want to do it because they're the outliers here. You know, Liverpool have won the league recently. Manchester just keep winning the league. Arsenal, no league title since 2004. Can they buck that trend this season, Karl? Defensively, look incredibly sound. Mikel Arteta has clearly worked on that since last season. But do you get that feeling even without a super number nine that there's a chance in them, there's a chance in it for them this season? That pause you just did there, that, I think you know what the answer to that question is. It's like someone doing a lie detector test and looking to the side. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, I think the great thing Arteta's done in the summer was he's looked at his squad and said, okay, we were maybe ahead of schedule in being in a title race last season. How do we make sure our squad is going to be top four quality between now and the end of my contract or whatever? And I look at this Arsenal team, and like I said before, they're not knocking people out anymore, but they are making people tap out. They're learning this sort of attritional football that so many title teams have won. Gary Neville last season was very eloquent in when he said he believed Arsenal would find a way to not win the league. Doesn't even want to have this large lead at the top of the table because the emotions get the better of you. And this Arsenal team now seems a little bit more streetwise. I think Arsenal win a Premier League title eventually under Mikel Arteta. I don't think it's going to be this season because there's just too many finickety bits. There's, I think the ceiling, they've got more to go. There's, there are ways they will improve. If Uri and Timber was fully fit all season, then we can start talking. If they get a Partey successor, then we can really start talking. I think Partey's now reached this status where he's more of a theoretical football player than an actual football player. I don't think when you're injured enough for that long, you can guarantee you come back in the same way. So get those two things nailed down. You know, Timber comes back, we get a look at him, we see how well he's recovered from the ACL injury, and they get a player who is younger and as good as Thomas Partey. They're out there. One of them plays in Spain and is fantastic. If they can sort those things out, then they can start thinking about a title challenge, a successful title challenge in the seasons to come. But this one, not sure, not sure. Charlie, I mean, you saw how Mikel Arteta celebrated beating Liverpool at the Emirates. And many fans would look at that and say, look, we've beaten top of the league. Convincingly, surely there's got to be a shout in there for this young team. Yeah, definitely. I mean, they're definitely in it. There is some, yeah, I think because last season they were top for so long and had that big lead and then didn't win it, that's always going to count against them in the kind of perception stakes. And the fact that, as you say, it's been 20 years since they did win the league. It's so interesting what they've done this season because they have, or Arteta has, tried to dial down some of the kind of emotion, how frenzied it felt last season at times, which made it thrilling, but ultimately wasn't sustainable. I think what they're doing this season is a lot more sustainable. And actually, were it not for sort of some fairly freaky goals and what have you, they would have conceded far fewer goals. They've conceded a lot more than they should have done, according to the quality of chances they've given away. 22 goals against from that 17.8 xG. They've blooded a new goalkeeper and that's changed how things are playing. So I think his hope is that things will settle down a little bit. And whereas last season they started strongly and tailed off, the hope is that they've managed that first part of the season a bit better and they can finish more strongly. That said, I think there is still a perception around them. They go away to West Ham on Sunday. I don't think it would massively surprise anyone if they dropped points off the back of that kind of huge win. And I'm not at all suggesting that because they over-celebrated or anything like that. I just mean, I think that's still the perception around them, correctly or otherwise, that they have these kind of dropped points in them. What was so weird about December for them was that their two best performances of the season came against Brighton, where they were brilliant. And as Urbi said, they were the best team Brighton had played all season. I think he was genuinely taken aback just by how good Arsenal were that game. And then Liverpool pulled away, which was an incredibly mature performance. They were good value for the point at a ground where a few months earlier when they played them in April, they'd also drawn. But geez, that game was like an absolute car crash in lots of ways. And I think they gave up some like four goals worth of xG. It was mad. Whereas this encapsulated what they'd become. Very controlled, very solid, very sturdy. And then they went and lost two games, seemingly out of absolutely nowhere. So I think that's why the doubts persist with them. And there have been times a bit with Arsenal, I felt a little like they're trying to play grown-ups, like they're doing this whole, we're being really mature now, we don't give up city chances. Kind of like against Liverpool, they were very grown up, very mature, but they've still got that own goal in their locker. And it's just a question of whether this is, you know, just all part of the process. They're trying to evolve to a completely different way of playing. Whether, you know, these are just kind of teething issues. Yeah, I guess whether those are resolved in time for this season, or as Kyle says, for next. I think the strike, the centre forward thing is a little bit of a red herring to me. It's more, can Gabriel Jesus stay fit? I think Gabriel Jesus is unbelievably underrated because he doesn't do the things that we certainly in this country believe a number nine should do, and that's score goals regularly. And look, I get he's not a great finisher. He's brilliant at everything else. And, you know, he gets, he doesn't not score any goals. You know, I think last season it was something like in the league, 11 from 26 appearances, something like that. That's not dreadful. It's not prolific. But when you're doing so much else, like he does, like he is crucial for this team. When they went top, sort of last season, 1-12, drew one of their first 14 games. He was the best player in that team by a distance, a team that would comfortably be top of the league. So I think it's as much right now anyway, well clearly to the end of the season, can he stay fit rather than can they bring in this kind of unicorn number nine who does all of that and also scores 30 goals a season? Like if you can find this player, great. I'm sure Arteta will be all ears. There aren't many of them around. I saw you chomping at the bit there Kyle, did you want to say something? No, I think Charlie's bang on. He's used the word perception and there is so much about Arsenal that is brilliant, but you have to look just a little bit harder past the first thing. I have a friend who once said, no one believes how good Gabriel Jesus is because he's got really high cheekbones, so therefore looks too smiley. I went, that's not a serious thing. I know if, you know, if Jesus had like more ridiculous haircuts and looked like he might swing at a defender, you'd all realise how good he was. Yeah. Okay. That's, that's pub chat. That's not good. But there are times I'm watching him and like Charlie says, there are, you could spend a lot of money and waste a lot of years trying to find a striker who can do everything Gabriel Jesus does as well as score. So I think that's why I'm just going to run with this person. But again, but that's what I mean, I think if that's Kai Havertz, then that's fine. It's just, you know, whether he's needed elsewhere for now, I think, I think you can see I'm pulling the face. Is that Kai Havertz? I think you'll do it like Ayo, I know you like Arsenal. Is that person Kai Havertz? I'm not saying anything. I'm impartial. I'm the one adjudicating this discussion. Tom, you're a man of numbers. Tom, you're a man of numbers. Is that man Kai Havertz? Do you know what? Let's move on quickly from Havertz. It's not that I'm trying to just snuff it out, but very quickly with a Man City hat on, you know, Pep Guardiola has been asked, Tom, how he felt about, you know, letting a player like Zinchenko or Gabriel Jesus go to Arsenal. Do you think those two ex-City players are good enough to win the league or contribute to Arsenal winning the league this season? Yeah, I mean, looking at the kind of positives for Arsenal that we were just talking about, those two games that Arsenal played against Man City, so the one they'll win in the Premier League and the one they'll defeat in the FA Cup, they've actually been in City's bottom five for ex-G in the whole of the Pep era. So they have actually struggled to break down Arsenal very recently. And that just worries me a little bit that, you know, they've got to come to the Etihad. And for all that Charlie said, which I completely agree with, they have definitely evolved into a team which will be a little bit more tricky to beat. And yeah, from a narrative perspective, Gabriel Jesus' goal at the Etihad would be something to behold. Tom, can I ask a question? One thing, you know, many coaches have talked about is the disease of more and how you sort of keep the momentum after you've won these titles. One thing we heard a lot is this is a City side, they've won three in a row, they've won the treble. And in that early start where you had a wobble, you're hearing things like the fire has gone out. Some of these players were finding hard to motivate themselves after they've won everything essentially. How do you think Guardiola has addressed this to push on for this unprecedented four in a row? Yeah, I kind of alluded to it before, but I just think Pep is kind of more motivated by kind of reinvention and finding solutions and just being different and the challenge of adapting his team kind of a little bit more than he is winning things. I feel that that's what drives him on. So I think for Pep, you know, the desire and the motivation is always going to be there. And we've seen, you know, we've seen him on touchline, we've seen videos in training, he is so effusive as a coach that it's impossible not to feel that as well. So I think it must be something to do with that, you know, you look at the respect that he has from all of his players, you know, many of whom have got a lot better under him. Yeah, they're gonna want to keep winning because Pep really, really wants to keep winning. That's what it seems to me from looking from the outside in. So you're saying you sold some squad players and gave Mikel Arteta to Arsenal to help motivate himself to win more? That's a joke. But to be honest, it's not beyond the realms of reality with Pep Guardiola. I mean, who knows, right? But on a quick one on Liverpool as well, I mean, let's not forget Klopp's final season, you know, the last dance, some have called it, you know, Karl, I mean, if you need a motivating factor, Salah potentially might not be there next season. There's conversations around Van Dijk potentially not being the next season. The guy that brought you into the club, this could be a wonderful sign off, surely? Yes. Do you remember what happened in Wenger's last season at Arsenal? True. Right. And true. I know we all spent the first stages of lockdown watching the last dance and we all got a heightened awareness of how cool it is for players to win trophies in their final seasons and just come off messy winning the World Cup for Argentina despite the fact that Messi still wants to play for Argentina. But just because it's someone's final season doesn't necessarily put a rocket up everyone and they're going to play better. As we've seen on more than one occasion, this early announcement can sometimes backfire. I mean, I'm looking, I've got one eyeball over at Barcelona right now going, is that what he's saying? He's going to leave at the end of the season. Doesn't seem to be going well either. I think Jurgen Klopp, the things Jurgen Klopp is very, very good at and tactically incredibly astute, but when this is all said and done, Jurgen Klopp's going to go down as Pep Cardio's greatest adversary, much to the annoyance of Jose Mourinho. And I think the way Klopp is good at channeling emotion to get an extra 5-10% out of players that perhaps wouldn't think they were on the same level as Manchester City's players will be useful. It would be nice for a lot of people if Jurgen Klopp won a big trophy in his final season at Liverpool. I'm talking to you as a Manchester United fan and reporter, so you can hear the pain in my voice as I say that. I just think it's no necessary guarantee that Salah gets 5% extra and then finishes the season with 30 goals. One thing you did mention there is, one thing I do want to point out is Trent Alexander-Arnold's contract situation as well. If you are, there are not many teams out there bigger than Liverpool, but I can see a team like PSG or Real Madrid looking at Trent and his contract situation and going, should we have a phone call? Maybe? Can I say, it's so interesting how we talk about emotion and how much that's informed by perception and by results as well, because you've got a few days ago people saying Arteta and Arsenal were too emotional, but then we're also saying in the next breath, emotion could power Liverpool to the title. So it's very, it's weird, you know, it's such, which makes me think it's all complete nonsense basically, because it's just, what do we want to happen? What do we think will happen? And then we're kind of retrofitting this emotional interpretation onto that. You're completely correct, completely correct. Okay, well I want to end the pod on this, a quick pub quiz or pop quiz. I hope you've been doing your homework. So obviously Manchester United won the treble, Manchester City won the treble, no team has ever won four in a row. In the 80s Liverpool won the treble, Arsenal won the treble, who's the only other team in the top division of British football to win a treble that I've not mentioned? Celtic? I'd say English football. Okay, sorry. Wait, hold on, did you say Arsenal won a treble in the? In the 30s. Oh in the 30s, sorry, I thought you said the 80s. No, no, 30s, Liverpool was 80s. Who's the only other team in English football to have won a treble? Is it like Preston North End? I was going to say Preston. It's not far, it's not far, it's not far, it's a northern team. Okay. 10 seconds, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Huddersfield Town in 23 to 26. Insane. Three league titles in the 20s for Huddersfield Town. Let's end it there, gents. I really appreciate your time, Tom, Carl, Charlie, and also make sure you rate and review the podcast if you're enjoying it. I'm sure some of you got that by googling it. Anyway, we're back tomorrow. Have a good one. If you like this video, click subscribe for more content like this. We'll be joined by the likes of David Ornstein, Matt Slater, Adam Crafton, Karl Anka, and plenty more through the season to bring you the inside track to the biggest stories in football. If you'd like to listen to the full episodes for free, search the Athletic Football Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts from.