The Chinese Civil War (a Mao victory or a Chiang loss?)

as we make this video in 2022 it's crazy to think just how different our world would have been had mao zedong lost the chinese civil war at the end of the 1940s for any of you guys who like alternate history consider this how different would the trajectory of the cold war have been would china's economic rise have happened in the same way and would a more us-friendly republic of china avoid an almost inevitable global war the crazy thing is that in 1946 this seemed exactly what would happen chiang kai-shek's kmt controlled all of this territory and he boldly made the prediction that total victory was just 10 months away as you know that's not what happened as mao declared the beginning of the prc in october of 1949 and so with chiang kai-shek losing from a near unassailable position today we're going to explore the answers to this question did mao zedong win the civil war or did chiang kai-shek lose the civil war hello there okay so yes today we'll be covering this important question and after you've watched today's video make sure to leave a comment below with your answer you don't have to tell me why but i'm just curious to know what your verdict is based off of watching today's video so for those who aren't familiar i'll very quickly fill you in on the context of the chinese civil war if you feel you already know what happened skipper had to hear so basically throughout the 1920s china was a nation divided into areas controlled by warlords this guy chiang kai-shek was the leader of the party in control of the south east of china the kuamin tang effectively the kuomintang had an alliance with the communist party of china called the united front and together they tried to defeat the warlords to bring them under their control and so in 1927 chiang kai-shek went on his northern expedition defeating many of the warlords and bringing china under his control however in shanghai he declared martial law and stabbed his communist allies in the back with changmya on control of china he made it his mission to get rid of the communists and they fled to congregate in jiangxi where they appointed a new leader mao zedong with the kmt closing in on them in 1934 mao led the communist out of janji on foot travelling 10 000 kilometres north to shanji now the japanese had been in china since 1931 when they invaded manchuria however in 1937 their occupation escalated to a full-scale invasion of china with this a second united front was formed against the japanese the communists would do guerilla warfare in the north and chiang kai-shek would leave the defense in the south now as you'd know the japanese weren't defeated until 1945 with the dropping of the atomic bomb and so as the americans defeated japan they naively assumed that this second united front could remain in china us general george marshall visited the middle kingdom and tried to reconcile the two factions under chang's leadership but neither were content with this the communists hadn't forgotten chiang kai-shek stabbing them in the back and chang didn't want to share china with anyone else and so the civil war started favorably for chang and in 1947 the map of controlled territory in china looked like this but by 1949 they'd lost all of this and chiang kai-shek fled to taiwan as mao declared the new prc so to address our big question is it fair to say that mao won the war or chang lost the war and let's start with the case for a mao victory and i think the case for mao's victory actually begins with him taking over as the leader of the communist party previous leaders such as bogu ultimately lost support for a russian model of marxist leninism because of how badly they were defeated by chiang kai-shek when mao took over and led the communists away from zhangjii he actually led them out of the clutches of chiang kai-shek to a place where they could regroup and though chiang kai-shek had victories against mao's predecessors in suppressing the communists he couldn't suppress mao and so i think there is a case to be made that the invigorated leadership undermount in the 1930s kept the communist party alive to fight in the war of the 1940s secondly i think the next thing that points towards a meow victory is actually the way he kept the usa happy enough to not completely throw their weight behind chiang kai-shek as we'll see soon chang also dropped the ball when it came to the us but according to the domino theory the usa really should have unwaveringly opposed a communist force in a civil war now actually welcomed american journalists such as edgar snow to cover their stronghold yannan which helped create a narrative that he wasn't necessarily a soviet proxy but actually an independent communist who was not directly in opposition to american interests thirdly mao deserves much credit for his guerrilla warfare tactics the communists firstly put up stiff resistance to the japanese in the northeast and then during the civil war mao effectively used espionage to compensate for a 5-1 numerical disadvantage the best example of this was the infiltration of kmt general huzong man's office giving the communist precise intel on when their stronghold yannan was going to be attacked with this intel mao evacuated the city when the kmt invaded they surrounded them completely baiting them finally this can't really be notched up to mao's ingenuity but i feel it does exonerate chiang kai-shek a little bit at the end of world war ii stalin rushed to occupy manchuria to gain influence in the asia-pacific peace conferences this meant that chang's kmt never truly had a complete stronghold in china and when the kmt looked like they were going to win that's when the soviets intervened and their intervention was not insignificant stalin gave mao around 7 to 8 000 rifles 14 000 heavy machine guns and 700 vehicles such as tanks so let's turn the tables and view the argument that chiang kai-shek was responsible for his own defeat in the civil war now as much as mao did well to not completely alienate the usa chang did terribly in gaining the support of an ally who really didn't want to see china fall to the communists george marshall went to china with the mission of keeping both parties happy that chang repeatedly ignored the usa's recommendations now chang was his own independent leader and so was under no obligation to take orders from the usa but pragmatically speaking the usa was one of his chief suppliers in terms of sophisticated weaponry and chang showed a lot of arrogance to think that american disdain for communism would allow him to ignore instructions with near impunity chiang kai-shek ignored the usa by invading zhang jikal against american advice zhang insists on overextending himself pushing northwest advancing even into manchuria where the russians have treacherously delayed their withdrawal so the chinese reds can fill the vacuum when the pro-kmt republican candidate thomas dewey lost to harry truman in 1948 any hope of american intervention in the war was lost now in fairness to chang the american generals had a very low view of him simply by virtue of him being chinese with joseph stillwell calling him a peanut secondly chang was no champion for the rights of the common folk of china in order to gain the support of landlords he effectively turned a blind eye to the mistreatment of peasants the us journalist jack belden reported on a case where two dozen peasants were buried alive by their landlords liking it against the japanese chang also made the call to redirect the yellow river against mao zedong however this brought in much scorned from wuhan as 500 villages around it were destroyed and 400 000 people were displaced the kmt also treated civilians in communist territory terribly for example in their efforts to take the city of changchun chang laid siege to it for five months causing 120 to 300 000 people to die from disease and hunger human flesh was also put on sale for a dollar twenty and so when mao returned to take the city back he was greeted as a liberator thirdly chiang kai-shek's management of the military was very questionable like hitler chang couldn't bear retreats and so in beijing and shanghai his army was completely surrounded he promoted incompetent generals who were loyal to him in order to show up his own position within the party however by doing this he passed over competent ones that posed a risk to his leadership and chang also terribly treated his own soldiers forcing them on long arduous marches in terrible conditions and with many soldiers illiterate and unsure why they were fighting they defected to mouse communists chang also lost supporting key metropolitan cities like shanghai as they faced hyperinflation many who had opposed the communists for fear of losing their private wealth now had lost their life savings and were much less willing to oppose mao the public also haven't forgotten that it took six years after the invasion of manchuria in 1931 for chang to divert his attention away from attacking the communists to instead defending against japan and with all of this chang lost a lot of popular support in china and after initially fleeing to shanghai in 1948 he began the kmt's retreat to taiwan chang's kmt suffered 1.5 million deaths while mao's communists comparatively suffered 250 000 deaths and in october of 1949 mao declared the new prc thanks for watching comment either meow victory or chang lost below to let me know which side you found more persuasive if you found this video helpful you're also likely to enjoy this video we made on hujin tao the guy before xi jinping we can't wait to see you next time for our next venture into a fascinating part of history