7 reasons why Beijing may launch a war against Taiwan in 2024 2024-01-10 03:06

everyone welcome to Lille talk good evening good morning good afternoon all right let's uh let's tackle a big subject tonight seven reasons why Beijing May launch a war in in the Taiwan straight sooner than we expect uh we've heard a we've heard a lot of news about Xi Jinping cleansing the rocket Force we've also heard uh his the recent outing of more than a dozen paa commanders and Senior officers including three commanders of the rocket force on January 6 Bloomberg reported that the US intelligence assessment found the P's rocket force and the overall defense industry uh to be highly corrupt and Chinese missiles were filled with water instead of fuel and the operation of the vast missile silo covers doesn't open or allow for Effective missile launches uh us intelligence sources told Bloomberg that corruption was so severe that it would most likely Force xiin ping to recalibrate whether Beijing can take on any major military actions soon such is the view held by many China experts the report on the Po's widespread corruption has to some extent alleviated the pressure of an eminent War because we feel that xiin ping would certainly postpone the military operation because he isn't ready or his paa isn't ready but I must caution that that view may may cost us dearly um now on January 3rd the center for strategic International Studies csis published its outlook on S us relations in 20124 um the author of the report is a China expert who has traveled to China for 30 years and visited thousands of officials business Executives Scholars lawyers and so on and he believes that although us China relations have deteriorated drastically from 2018 to 2020 um the meeting between Biden and she in San Francisco successfully conveyed the signal that the two countries can effectively manage their differences he believes that although the power struggle between the two countries will continue a safety net is being established which gives both sides the opportunity to successfully prevent the cat catastrophic outcome of a full scale of a full scale of a f scale War full scale War oh tongue twister fet um and this this report and some of the other views that I read got me very concerned I think the csis report is overly optimistic its prediction of a us China relations assumes that the CCP thinks and acts or reasons like we do but this assumption may not hold at all I'm not predicting war in the Taiwan straight this year I'm not saying the uh war is definitely going to break out but I must tell you how the CCP thinks and how it prioritizes you must know its rationals as crooked as they may seem knowing them help you um or help us make sound decisions so the basic rule of thumb is the more chaotic the CCP household is the more likely it is uh to resort to war to stay in power so there are seven reasons why why I think the CCP May launch a war in the Taiwan Strait sooner than expected and it can be as early as 2024 and the seven reasons I broke them down into three categories the first two reasons are related to Shin's motivation for war the second two Reas the the second set of two reasons are related to external circumstances external geopolitical circumstances or conditions and the last three reasons um is related to China's domestic conditions okay so now let's go over them one by one so the first two P the first pair um now when Shin will attack Taiwan will be a political decision rather than a military one please remember that CCP leaders launch of war is always a political maneuver to gain power the Communist Theory believes that power is born from the barrel of guns and therefore chaos and conflicts provide the ideal opportunities for Communists to obtain power and control um if you look at history madon launched the Sono Indian War for a political comeback after his Great Leap Forward movement failed and he was sidelined the war with India in the early 1960s wasn't about border issues but regaining power D Shin launched the San of Vietnamese War to gain trust from the United States and thus paved the way for his reform and opening up policy again it wasn't so much about territorial disputes with Vietnam but it was to ensure that it has the trust of the US government for its New Direction um I mean for the ccp's new economic Direction I made three videos on CCP leaders motivation of War um you can check them out um Chris if you are online please can can you could you please um post the links of the three Mo three war videos here in the description for people to to um check them out okay um now when sh when shiin ping will launch an attack on when shining will launch an attack on Taiwan depends on when he hopes to solidify power through a wartime control mechanism as he's entangled with various internal political crisis a major external conflict will help deter public resentment and deflect the blame and carry him through the crisis the more chaotic Chinese Society becomes the more likely Shi jinin will resort to war judging from the recent developments such as the prince Ling's open challenge to him the death death of Liang the downfall of Chang the falling economy she's grip on the rain seems very fragile at the moment and therefore the risk of War becomes High some light just suddenly turn on okay all right but you may argue with widespread corruption in the military such as the cases we heard in the Bloomberg report how does he dare to laun a war what if he loses it if the fuel tank of his Rockets is filled with water and if the silo covers of the Rockets cannot open why does he want to risk everything and start a war that's our thinking and the thinking of a normal person but the CCB leaders and officials don't look at it that way they don't follow our logic their Rhymes and reasons follow a perverted rationale or a perverted set of rationals um that sacrificing human life is nothing in order to achieve its goal the cost of war and human casualty is a big concern for Democratic countries publicly elected officials in the west are often faced with voices that oppose War but CCP sees that as an Institutional weakness of Democratic countries it believes that it has an advantage over the United States because it has no opposition and no checks and balances in the system um so therefore it has the power to do what it wants to achieve its goals without opposition um it believes that its lack of respect for human life or its disregard for human life is an advantage over the free over the West and so this is a point that the Western experts often neglect when assessing ccp's motivation if launching a war help solidify XI jinping's power he would do it he doesn't care how many pla soldiers would die or how the economy would suffer because from their perspective they they don't have any problem they can make or he can make his people suffer but a publicly elected president president of the United States cannot afford to do so and they believe because of that they have an advantage over the US um so that's his political motivation when he is in political crisis you know having an external conflict bigger than his internal conflict will deflect attention we will be able to export the crisis um so that's his motivation number one and his motivation number two is that the only way for shiin pin to retain control within the paa is through war with an external enemy we've heard so much about the rocket Force's problems right such as corruption Espionage fear of War lack of loyalty among others it's problems are now picked up by Western media and the whole world knows about them and the paa Air Force may be the next one in line to be cleansed and purged rumor has it that the former Central military commission Vice chairman uh former Air Force Commander shilia I actually have a picture of him here we go um has been taken away for investigation according to two Chinese sources One Source believes that he might have been involved in the princ Lin's activities in opposing she um now she General she was promoted by huin and is believed to be loyal to huin and we know huin suffered you know was removed from the stage during the parties's just 20th party Congress last fall and now hu's son who I have a picture of him actually here here we go this man this men's whereabout is under question because there has been reports in h coming out of Hong Kong saying that he would be promoted to be the deputy minister of Public Services like civilian Services um it kind of indicated that shiin would promote him you know to um um maybe to you know to to appeal to to um to reach out to the reformists um but that didn't happen someone else was promoted into that position and as of now uh the junior who's name is a banned word on Chinese internet um so and people don't know where he is so the fact that hujing son is missing in action shall we say make people wonder if the rumor about sh CH the former the former Air Force Commander and the vice chairman of CMC is linked to that so also um another Air Force Commander I mean former Commander uh his name is ding what's his name d ding yeah he was one of the N senior po commanders removed from the people's Congress membership at the end of December and de is said to be investigated for corruption in the construction of a military airport in Beijing so it seems that shining is having an internal War fighting with his paa not just the rocket Force now the Air Force but this can be continued for wrong um one former Pi officer living in the US said that the rocket force is is suffering a low morale and half of the officers senior officers are seeking retirement or discharge from the from the service and this pessimistic view or or this pessimistic sentiment um in the rocket force uh has definitely affected other military services so if you think from the sh From shiin pin's perspective what is he going to do um he cannot fight with his own military indefinitely this is not good so the only way for him to retain control is to send the plas the paa um soldiers to war he would rather send them to fight with external enemies on battlefields instead of having them sit at home doing nothing but scheming against him casualties won't be she's concerns he cares about his power and the stability of the regime so contrary to Common belief that the internal puron and systemic corruption will lead to she's losing confidence in launching a war against Taiwan he may feel compelled to start a war to discipline his military um or not only to discipline his military but to regain control um so what we just discussed are shijin pin's two motiv ations one is to retain control politically um and the other is to control to retain control over the pla now let's talk about the external conditions that make him see an window of opportunity um uh that he sees as an opportunity now as opposed to later right so reason number three we did we we talked about two reasons so this would be reason number three it's related to his opponent the United States waiting any longer isn't necessarily beneficial to shiin Ping and the CCP Shi Jinping perceives Joe Biden as old and weak um particularly in time of War Biden is facing reelection and doesn't want a military confrontation with China in 2024 nor does he want the US economy to be affected by anything that happens across the Taiwan straight Biden has clearly communicated this to she and guess what she may just give Biden what he doesn't want according to beijing's calculus its chance of winning the war under a hawkish Republican president is much smaller and the chance of Americans sending a Republican president in the to the White House is quite high so shining's people under certainly understand this so 2024 becomes an ideal window of opportunity um before Biden steps down the recent drama involving the US defense minister Lloyd Austin certainly reconfirms beijing's perception of a weak us leadership under Joe Biden this may Propel Beijing to take take advantage of the situation reason number four um is related to the geopolitical condition it has been um the current geopolitical crisis that we've seen around the world um have been to some extent carried out according to ccp's design or plan in the past few months we are becoming more aware of ccp's role in a new anti-us access Russia China Iran and North Korea the United States is EMB boiled in multiple Regional conflicts the Ukraine Russia War the Hamas Israel conflict Yemen's houthi attacks in the Red Sea North Korea's nuclear threat and China's aggression in the South China Sea these conflicts have drained us resources and depleted American weapon Arsenal um or has the potential of draining us resources um and depleting American weapon Arsenal so From ccp's perspective the geopolitical condition the current geopolitical condition is favorable to the CCP if Beijing Waits a few more years the world might be at peace and there's no guarantee that the world would have this many Regional conflicts flaring up at one moment that tie up the Americans so I just discussed the two external factors in ccp's calculus or consideration now the next three factors are related to China's domestic conditions or its preparedness for war number five China's economy reached its peak a few years ago and has been declining however due to a large foreign Reserve Beijing is holding including its shadow reserves I did a program talking about that um as well as its large gold reserves um I haven't talked about that but we have something written and we'll Pro we'll release that soon um so Beijing has prepared a large you know amount of wealth or has accumulated large amount of wealth over the past years and its Financial strength at the moment isn't the best in the past 10 years but will be the best in the next five to 10 years so shiin understands that China's economy will only go downhill from here five years from now China's Financial strength will be much weakened so postponing the war or isn't the best interest of the regime it should do it why it still has some money okay Factor number six the United States has been elevating the controls in limiting in limiting the ccp's access to Cutting Edge technology such as semiconductors this trend won't be reversed and is only expanding in scale and scope it will be more and more difficult for Beijing to obtain high-tech products um the technological gap between the two countries will be expanded due to the Hightech bands so it's expected that some Chinese Industries particularly the defense industry um will be knocked down to the Stone Age right now the Chinese defense contractors may still have some old inventory to access but it will run out five years from now the pla's high-tech weapons may lose their advantages now the pla has advantage in the F following um weapons it's supersonic Weapon It's supersonic missiles underwater drones or submersibles and near space programs um such as the Spy balloons that we saw so these are the three areas that make shiin ping confident in uh launching a war against Taiwan and and and the United States but 5 years from now the Chinese may not have this Advantage anymore because one the US and its allies will certainly catch up and take the lead and two the lack of access to high-tech products or key components will seriously affect um China's defense industry so from this perspective waiting for a few more years isn't beneficial last but not least Chinese population is quickly declining due to co casualties and low birth rate and is aging fast as Chinese Society is getting older drafting young men to go to war will become very unpopular and can be very costly 10 10 to 20 years from now China won't have enough young people to fight in a large scale War whereas now China has a large number of young people looking for jobs many of them are young um young men due to the the problem of gender disparity as a result of the one child policy so having so many jobless young men is a social problem for Beijing right now therefore starting a war now is more um beneficial than delaying it to the Future so I want to summarize the war is sooner than than we expected or than we have expected and can break out in 2024 because as China's economy declines dramatically its population ages fast and the rest of the world decouples or accelerates to decouple from China and becoming more prepared in defending Taiwan Beijing has lesser and lesser of a chance of winning the War if it postpones it it will lack Manpower money and technological advantages um if it waits externally it believes that the various ongoing geopolitical crisis have tied up the US and thus provided the ideal condition for launching a war it's interested in taking advantage of a divided America in an election year as well as a weak and old president who has indicated to Xi Jinping that he doesn't want to have a military confrontation in the Taiwan straight these present an opportunity to the CCP last but not least shining needs a major external crisis to reshuffle power internally and regain control of the paa and stay in power there are certainly other factors that come into play such as how many paa officers are actually anti-war and also how shiin pin's relations with the princ Lins will Pang out um these are the uncertain uncertainties that certainly will have an impact on beijing's decision um so the Situation's Dynamic and may evolve but based on what we see now the above seven factors should not be ignored in assessing War risks in t in the Taiwan stade and I hope the West um Western experts don't jump to conclusion that war is out of the picture uh because of the systemic corruption in the paa and I think that view is too shallow in my opinion all right so all right I that's all I have for today I actually have have slides for this I found it amazing okay let's see um let me go through the questions real fast the super chats questions um I'm feeling much better although I may cough occasionally but it's really only after I talk for a long time take a sip of water okay so I have a super chat super sticker um do I have one I saw I thought I saw one from she hate me 546 well thank you thank you uh all right let's see okay let me I'll pick some questions I'll pick some random questions for me um if it's addressed to me put my name in the front Brian Smith some of us see the Trump Biden versus CCP differently Trump is an isolationist who has praised she many times as a powerful leader it seems to us that Trump would not defend Taiwan uh is that a question for me or that's just your um I I don't know what um what the Trump policy will be if he wins uh I think the difference between Biden and Trump is that Biden is a politician is a seasoned politician and Trump is not he's a shed businessman shall we say some people see him that way um Biden may say the right things politically but we don't know what he actually does behind this scene to deal with the CCP um I think politicians certainly do that whereas Trump would say things sometimes randomly um but he may not practice that or I don't know so I don't know why he Praises xiin ping um but I think you cannot you cannot you cannot compare them based on what they say because they they they're one is a politician who knows who who always knows who knows how to say the right thing and the other is a shoed businessman so you cannot compare their policies based on what they say I think that would be a mistake um that's what I what you know you have to take a look at what they have done um and for the and and Trump was the president who actually you know started change the US policy you know regarding China he is the one who who who who identified China as the biggest opponent geopolitical um competitor so he he he is credited with the shift in that policy and Biden has has pretty much followed um you know Trump's policy you know when it when it comes to China so I don't think the two really differ that much that's just my assessment at the moment okay Angel the P targeted and destroyed one of our satellites in 2021 we then destroyed six of our own old satellites using six different weapon systems simultaneously I'm not aware of of that incident so I i' like to learn more about it before I say anything um let's see questions for me John S any comments um bat lady shun traveled to us in 2017 meeting with NIH fouchi and Eco Health if there's a lab leak cover up will us China relations stay the same or improve I think I just wonder why Joe Biden doesn't release the report on on the origin of covid and and also why he doesn't release the report on the on the Spy balloon I think he he could have been more um more straightforward with the CCP um so I um I was going to make a video about shun's role in Co couple of months ago but I don't know if people are still interested in that because we're already three years away from you know from the from the onset of of covid so I'm I wasn't sure if people are still interested in that if you are let me know sumant what do you know about the Chinese balloon over Taiwan I read it was detecting bunkers to Target if they attack Taiwan yeah they I think they sent out three and I mean they sent out four and three actually you know went into Taiwan airspace uh I think this is part of its tactic we're four days what three days ahead of the election and the CCP is launching Rockets it's sending spy balloons it's sending airplanes and warships around Taiwan trying to intimidate Taiwanese voters but will they just achieve the opposite opposite result we'll find out on Saturday um a vegan T-Rex do you think she feels that he has no other option but gambling on the Taiwan War because internal problems could take him down soon with us allies step up if War breaks out do you think she feels that he has no other option when it gets to that point I mean we've already talked about how ugly the internal political fightings have been right with the princings we talked about how you know his troubles with the paa I mean there's nothing going right for him right now the economy is going down and they just um there's really nothing going right for him so I unless I mean you're asking the question when would she feel that he has absolutely no other option other than starting a war um I can't really answer that question but I think he's fairly close to reaching that point for any normal person to be in his position we would think that this is this is crazy right um but for him I don't know if you know he can maybe he still has some capacity um before reaching that point so I I don't know but it looks pretty bad okay uh question tcid turn what are your thoughts on ccp's involvement in the Venezuela Guana situation I have not looked into that but I know the South America South America is high high on ccp's priority list in terms of infiltration and influence because it's in the in the us backyard so South America certainly um is very important to the CCP Mike leay what factor will the outcome of Taiwan election play well if the kmt wins if the kmt wins which is the party favored by the CCP I think the chances of a war is reduced because um the CCP I mean this is beijing's view it believes that it has more control over the kmt leader and therefore it can uh put pressure you know put pressure on the kmt to to have a a peace PCT you know between the two governments you know um and so that the CCP will not resort to war to take over Taiwan but if everything goes well I don't think I think the chance for kmt to win the election isn't great so so that's not an option for Beijing um if we if they wins the probably some serious election irre irregularities that happen in Taiwan but we'll find out in a couple of days um Jerry Watson I hope you are feeling better I hope you are wrong about she I hope hope I'm wrong about she too um seriously I don't hope I I don't want the war to break out so I I agree with you I hope I'm wrong about she LBA and thank you uh I think I will feel better soon LBA an invasion of Taiwan is very complex operation in terms of logistics many military experts believe that the PA is not capable of such operation from what perspective you know there are many times the CCP should have lost historically but it didn't um winning or losing has a different definition for the for the CCP um if if CCP doesn't win but create a a a drastic situation geopolitically and the situation drags on for many years um you know like the Russia Ukraine conflict you know from from Russia and the ccp's perspective if they just drag on drag the war on you know longer you know the the the West NATO and then the United States you know will be losing support from their own voters right and but the but then the two dictators can can um they can hold on to the war because they need to do so politically so so winning a losing may have different definitions I I really think I really think um Western experts need to study how the CCP won the Civil War uh in the 1940s against the kmt against the nationalists um and yeah I think I think there are many lessons to be learned uh here's a question from alandro sudiro who are the powerful individuals behind shei if most P generals are against she he is finished isn't he who are the powerful individuals behind him I don't think there's any individuals behind him he is he is the last Fortress that's holding holding the CCP household from falling apart uh if most P generals are against him he's finished isn't he in the west he would be but in China he's not because it's um it's a totalitarian regime the the dictator controls everything you cannot even though in your mind you are against him you're afraid to say anything look at what happened to Le look at what happened to to Chang so these people as much as they they're against him but they are also very scared and fearful of their future um yeah Frosty flake I disagree with advantages based on my work in defense industry there's nothing China has that that is beyond us technology this is absolutely certain it's true from the Western perspective but uh let's take spy balloons for example the the the cost of making a spy balloon is what $200,000 100 I think it was like $150,000 right and to Launch so it's inexpensive but it would cost the United States a million dollars to launch a missile to take it down so suppose the CCP launches thousands of spy balloons loaded with dangerous warheads and weapons and send them over to the US um economically it's very costly for the US to take to take them down so the CCP is very how do you say they're very good at creating Creative Solutions to make up for their shortcomings so the the if the West the West always think from their perspective and this is really I must say a weakness on the part of western Society they think War ought to be fought like the way we've defined it and therefore we're superior but the CCP is not going to fight a war according to your definition and your strength they're going to do something they've never even thought of and it's highly dangerous they could launch an internet attack and paralyze our infrastructure or our government what are you going to do um so you're right you know in terms of Defense technology us is superior but you don't know what kind of a war CCP is going to fight is going to launch right take you don't know how many CCP spies how many po soldiers are already living in the United States so and then we have not you know so so is that's why the CCP caus an unrestricted Warfare so that's what I'm afraid is is going to be costly CLT thank you for the donation thank you what should Taiwan do arms race retake China well first of all to make sure you have um a good election right that first of all make sure the election is not interfered with or hijacked and then um you need to continue to educate because I know a lot of Taiwanese are still very Pro CCP um so the young people are probably okay but there's still a lot of Taiwan who are afraid of the CCP or afraid of confronting the CCP so you still have a lot to do and I think ccp's infiltration in the Taiwanese Society is fairly high in times of War um I think knowledge is power public awareness that's why CCP always focus on propaganda like propaganda is is its best weapon it it it uses propaganda to influence the West to influence you know its quote unquote enemies and once our people start to think like the CCP once we have accepted their thinking their ideas without being aware then they are effectively controlling us moon walker does China have a military draft like the US they do now I wonder if they go to war they will force all these unemployed men and women to fight they can either fight and get paid or starve um you'll be surprised that there are there are many people who don't want to fight but you will be surprised there are some people who you know who cannot make a living normally and you know joining the military may be their only solution to have a decent life and they may do that you know to support their parents so you can't we can't say that every Chinese young man you know the Chinese population for the most part are subject to brainwashing and propaganda every day 247 so they you know it's very dangerous for them to think out outside the box and reject the government's propaganda so um so there's a a big percentage of them that are willingly accept what the government tells them okay China's secret police why hasn't the CCP been suspended from the United Nations security Council good question why because the UN is under the influence of the CCP especially for supporting Putin's unnecessary war of aggression good question why why the United States France [Music] um doesn't um and the UK doesn't put pressure on the UN I don't I don't understand that's a good question Jerry Watson those reports would only fend the Flames of war in the US not what we need in an election year don't you think those reports those reports what reports uh I'm not quite sure what reports all right let's see uh Daniel Newman you can't win a war with water [Music] balloons what is he thinking yes you're right he cannot win a war with water balloons um but but if it's if but if his if his goal is to cause enough human suffering to intimidate the opponents then there are many things they they're capable of doing uh fighting a war that's why the definition of unrestricted Warfare is very dangerous because you know in the western tradition fighing a you have to follow certain rules and there are like rules and protocols that you follow like in in on battlefields right but not according to the CCP they don't follow any rules and if their goal is to cause the most human suffering to intimidate the opponents so they will back down then they're they're capable of doing a lot of things the Western uh will be surprised to find out all right um from Jean and oh thank you Jean for the for the donation thank you Thomas Ward she gambles war with SK J Roc Phil Vietnam India South Korea sorry Japan not just us Australia and Canada are their resources that great the resources are not that great um it does fear I'm not saying that fear isn't an a factor um but in order for him to hold on to power you know a war maybe maybe its best gamble I mean they're like I said they it's like a gambler like any normal people wouldn't gamble in a casino right unless it's for entertainment any people who seriously want to make money would do other things to make money that's normal thinking but there are people who want to gamble in a casino thinking that they can make money so what do you say to these people and say oh you shouldn't your chances of making money you know by doing other things isn't much hire but they don't believe they don't believe that they want to gamble so what can you tell to Gamblers you know you can't you can't apply our logic to try to convince them okay all right okay well there are a lot of good comments and and I think I've answered a lot of questions from David M with knowledge we can speak up to our Congress would you consider reporting on the various anti-china or Pro Taiwan us bills that are sitting in Congress uh I think I did a program last fall there are yes there number of anti I should say anti-ccp and pro Taiwan bills that are sitting in Congress there are quite a number of them um I I will consider that okay all right um Angel g g do you think the success of of failure the success of failure of China's new aircraft carrier is a factor if there's a possible War China's aircraft carrier is a failure or so far has been failures that the the the guy um who was The Mastermind behind or the master designer or the chief engineer behind China's aircraft carrier uh was arrested for for corruption so um so these these aircraft carriers have have have issues have technical issues so yeah so I um I I don't think it's going to be a success all right so that's seems to be all um all right I think that's all I I don't want to pre predict that the war is imminent I just want to I want to bring up I feel like there's certain um there's a a certain degree of relief in the West after seeing how corrupt the paa is and I think that relief the sense of relief concerns me and this is the reason what I'm doing this program I'm not trying to say that I'm not trying to stir up worry and I certainly hope I'm wrong but I think people need to be aware of ccp's logic and rationale as perverted as they are so that's the purpose of this program and I thank you for listening and I thank you for joining me I'll see you next time all right bye-bye bye