🔥🔥🔥羅家聰：大風大浪？2024經濟預言 金絲雀預警？目下所見 黑天鵝多過白天鵝？ 息口？ 銀行？ 企業？ #Lucy連線

It's almost January now, a few days have passed since the New Year. Can you help us predict the economic situation in Hong Kong? I see a lot of economists have made some big economic predictions. In fact, there is no need to have any shocking predictions. Because if you look back, in the past 10 or 20 years, in fact, the number of big deals has not increased much. It's not like that many times. So now, every year, people say that a lot of black swans are thrown out in order to improve. Black swans are more than white swans. These predictions are actually just to improve, to get the focus, to get the headlines. In fact, the effect is not accurate. If you take that view seriously, I believe that 2024 will be worse. Because after all, the number of black swans has increased for such a long time. We said that last year, the number of black swans was the most urgent. In fact, last year, things were slowly coming out. Although you say that there is a sound reduction now, the reduction has not happened immediately. Second, even if you say that the market, for example, the long-term interest rate, has also returned relatively, the effect it brings is not so fast to the economy. So if you look at it now, in fact, the effect of reduction is only temporary. Those who are sensitive to exports, such as tech stocks, Bitcoin, are all caught up. In addition to this part, you say that the real economic benefits are not very obvious. Even if you say that the market will be reduced immediately, those companies or general loans, the slightly medium-to-long-term loans, in fact, they are still suffering from a relatively high export. They have not been affected yet. In addition, the economy is really turning now. The data released by the United States last night showed that the proportion of financial institutions has increased. The proportion of companies hiring is relatively small. If you are in this situation, even if those companies can reduce their exports, in fact, there will not be much change in the outlook for the future. In fact, the investment will not bring out too much. But you say, will there be a big wave coming out? I haven't seen it yet. At least the so-called world-class advanced systems with money and economy are all considered OK. At least the stock market is still at a high position. Of course, it's not that it's not going to fall this year. But do you say that the stock market has become very dry? I think it depends on a set of indicators. Many markets have seen the PE, the market cap. In fact, the market cap of several advanced systems in the stock market is not particularly high. If it is a company, has it borrowed a lot of money for a period of time? Have you made a lot of debts? The interest rate is low. But if you talk about the growth of the bond market, it is not very fast. So I think in the past few years, the global central bank's water release is out of the ordinary. But the company's expansion is relatively not too much. You can say that. Now the economy is slightly back. The main reason is that your stock market is much tighter. This will bring out an impact. But it's just because of the past period of time, you say, is it a crazy loan? Or is it a very high investment? If you do it very well, it doesn't seem to be. So now your stock market suddenly withdrew 4-5% It seems that the economy has not yet had any big problems. But it will definitely weaken. So I think the stock market or other interest rates will be a little more cautious this year. But the whole thing is a big up and down. It's not like it's really down to 0.8% or 2.0%. It's not like that. But of course, sometimes there are days when it's a little more panic. Sometimes some bad things come out. Then there is a wave of panic. There is a selling trend. Occasionally it will happen. But it may be relatively short-term. Very soon, there may be a selling trend again. I guess the price is like this. So the whole year's pay is up and down. It may be a little weaker at the end of the year than now. But it's not too bad. Did you say that the economy belongs to the economic black swan that the doctor just mentioned? Everyone is worried about its future. The question of the future The US Federal Reserve also said that it may choose. Are there any other economic factors in 2024? The economic black swan or the other factors of the black swan Everyone is a little worried. There is no black swan. I answered you. The economic black swan You can see if there will be some outbursts. Usually if the market is not good For example, look at Japan or some new currency to see if there is any sudden rise in Japan. This is usually the prelude to the outburst. If there is a problem with the debt, you can see if there are any places or some banks that the CDS will pick up. You can see if there are any problems with the account of the bank. But these should actually be skyrocketing. Because since the U.S. broke out in March after the bank closed down two or three banks. In fact, the Federal Reserve is very tight. If there is something wrong with the bank, it has been monitored and even some things are being done. So there may be a place in the mainland. These things are not transparent in the mainland. I don't know if it's broken. Of course, you can look at the news to see if there are some places where some banks say they can't get money. That is, I am afraid of these things. For the time being, there is no such thing. I think in one or two months, the state may not have any major changes. But for example, if the market suddenly falls, in fact, if the U.S. dollar rises in the New Year, the market seems to want to recover a little. Then you have to watch out. If there is a adjustment in the market, in fact, it is not certain that some companies or even some economies will be in trouble. To prepare for this year's land sales is 8.5 billion yuan. Now I have bought three shares. The last one is to give up the whole season. Now there is only 7.3 billion in land sales plus the land, 5.4 billion, 1.23 billion, almost a dozen, a dozen more. In fact, now it will be like this. President Bush has talked about the government's budget. The budget has also reached more than 1,000 billion. Now there is no water, and there is a budget. Does the government expect that this year or there is really no way to increase taxes? In fact, you said before. In fact, it is very troublesome. As you said, the budget is more than 1,000 billion. The budget is more than 1,000 billion. If you count the years, in fact, the expenses are 10,000 billion. If you count the expenses in terms of 10,000 billion, in fact, you sell land for 100 billion. In fact, this is not a good deal. There is a problem with this income. If you want to increase taxes, it is not that you can increase it. It is easy to increase the tax rate, but if the economy is not good, for example, the company is closed now, it is actually difficult. Because the main income sources of the government are land sales or land-related, such as rainwater printing, TSD, and so on. These taxes are actually much less, because the tax rate is low. But at the same time, corporate taxes are not too easy to collect. You have a lot of companies that are closed, or a lot of companies have some tax arrangements, pink accounts, and so on. In fact, it may not actually pay a lot of taxes. In fact, it takes up an important proportion of your income. So if you are very loyal to the company, for example, a lot of small and medium-sized companies or individual households, in fact, they really don't pay much taxes. The original income may not be very large. You have to rely on large companies. But large companies are not very safe. If foreign companies have the opportunity to leave, those in mainland China actually have the opportunity to explode. If you are too loyal to corporate taxes, it is actually a bit of a nuisance. If you are too loyal to corporate taxes, it is actually a bit of a nuisance. If you are too loyal to corporate taxes, it is actually a bit of a nuisance. But when there is a problem, there may be a loss. But there may be a loss. In fact, there will also be a weakness. And the problem with corporate taxes is that although it is relatively stable, the tax rate is not so low. Because the corporate tax rate is about half of the corporate tax rate. But if you really want to pay the standard tax rate, the proportion is actually quite small. In fact, there are very few people in the tax network. Now the number of people working is about one in every three. That is, more than 7 million people have about 2 million jobs. But it is a very low proportion to pay taxes. If you pay the standard tax rate, it will be even lower. So you are actually collecting very few people's taxes, which is about hundreds of thousands. When the number of people who collect taxes is only hundreds of thousands, how do you cover such a large number? It's not the first time to sell land. In the past quite a long time, at least five or seven times, I have heard of it. Even if there is no land price, I don't want to cover it. It reflects that the developer has a very light view of the future of real estate. That is, I don't want to buy it, but I don't want to cover it. Of course, now people feel that the government is playing tricks. But in fact, if you push hard, you will lose money. I have tried to sell it before. If you sell it, it will give people a bad feeling for a long time. So I think it is unlikely to sell it. Another idea is to use this opportunity to reduce supply. In fact, you can count how much supply there has been in the past two years. If there is a lot of supply in the city, you are still in a situation where the price of land is falling. In fact, it turns out to be a waste of time. So there is a gap in the middle. Is the government losing money or the real estate industry losing money? The real estate industry is now going to the US. During the US trip, they won't be willing to buy a lot of land. In addition, if the government does not sell the land, of course, the number of households is very difficult to see. Originally, they wanted to get a balance. The government lost a little. But in fact, the market is quite weak now. So the government has no choice. This is the only result. But if you don't sell it for a while, does it mean that the price will go up? I don't dare to say that. Because from selling land to some land to be settled, it will take a few years. Now the government has stopped the supply. In fact, the effect may not be seen until a few years later. In the past few years, the supply has been small. In the past few years, the supply of land has been small. In fact, it may take a few years to see the effect. In fact, it is not very helpful to sell the land. And it is not clear whether the government has the motivation to lower the price. So I think the government is in a passive state. Because the developers don't sell the land, don't vote, and don't want to raise the price. As a result, there is no demand outside. That's why the government has stopped the supply. This is how I feel. And this time the problem is in the north. In the north, the government's main focus is to develop the concept of a technological city. But if you think about it, you can see that the economy is not good. The housing price in Shenzhen has dropped a lot. In fact, Shenzhen is a technological city. If the housing price is so low, you can clearly see that if you continue to do it, the effect may not be good. No matter how cheap the flour price is, the bread price will not be so expensive. Secondly, the biggest problem in Hong Kong is that there is no business. There is little foreign investment or local investment. In the past, it was only in the north. In fact, it is not easy to sell in the north. Not so many people have so much money to invest. If you do these things on a large scale, to be honest, if you call the slogan to create a whole technological city, it is easy to say. In fact, very few people do these things in Hong Kong. If there are very few people doing it, you draw such a large area to become a technological center. This is a lot of trouble. First of all, I don't know who will do it with you. Those in mainland China will do it. But you can see that there are a lot of platform-based companies in mainland China. They are very close to the cost. The price of land in Hong Kong is so expensive. I can't see any motivation to go down here to engage in technology. What are you doing here? In fact, the only function of Hong Kong if you engage in technology is to sell things. But selling things will not go to the north. Selling things must go back to the center. If you put it in the central area, it will be more similar. If you put it in the upper reaches, it will not be too similar. It is a center for selling things. So if you are in that area, if you say to engage in large-scale business, everyone has a feeling that it is very cautious. There are some two or three lines of business now. For example, to Kowloon East, to Guangzhou East. In fact, not everyone can do it. And those who can do it have been doing it for a long time. Now you suddenly throw a large piece to the north of the New World to engage in business. In fact, I think a lot of people are not optimistic. And the wall is too big. Is it necessary to have such a large wall to engage in business activities? Is it necessary to have such a large wall to engage in technology? As I said, not many people engage in technology. So if the whole positioning approach and the market view is so big, I don't believe the market is thinking about engaging in such a large business area. In fact, it is very difficult to do. And now you can see that the housing price is still a little better. The price has not fallen so fast. But when you go to the office, to the shop, the vacancy rate is much higher. And the price is much lower. Because if you don't have enough funds to invest, it's really not reasonable. So if your positioning is not based on housing, but mainly on business, the attractiveness is even lower. In this case, if you insist on buying land and pushing things, I think the government can not sell for a long time. How long can Linh Hoang Ho persist in not pushing land? He is actually a little bit like a market chain. But when it comes to the government's red mark, how long can you hold on? If you keep doing this, of course no one can control you except the Communist Party. If he doesn't push you, you can continue to be popular. But you will cause a lot of problems. For example, the year-on-year mark. You haven't fallen yet, but it's already like this. The year-on-year mark is definitely worse. Secondly, you will cause a decrease in the level of evaluation institutions. There are many possibilities. The whole feeling is that there is a structural problem. If you really don't sell the land, the government's income will be completely lost. There are a lot of such statements. And the income of selling land has never been stable. So it's so hard to guess the income of the government. But the income of selling land or the income of land-related indirect value accounts for about one-third of the entire government. If this one-third is true, when the housing price is so low in recent years, a lot of people, for example, have received a lot less than before. You can't cover the regular income of real estate. You can't get the big buildings back. If it continues, how can you catch up with the shortfall? Because the shortfall is not short. The government has already cut a lot of money. So I think the government is in a hurry. It's not that the government is in a hurry, but the government forces the government to sell the land. If the price is so low, the government can't help much. You can see that a lot of land is interesting, but there are a few that are not. If you sell it like this, it will become a buy-side market. The real estate business has the right to sell it. The government is very passive. The government has always had this problem with the structure of revenue. The income is too dependent on a certain area. If you sell the land, it will become a buy-side market. If you don't sell it, it will become a buy-side market.